Saturday, October 22, 2011

Rangers Still WS Favorites, Game 3

The Texas Rangers proved they will not go quietly into the night when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals and tied the series 1-1. The Rangers were favorites to win the World Series when they entered game one, marginal favorites in game two, and favorites again in game three. Beyond the Box Score shows their likelihood to win the World Series has bounced back to their initial level before the series began.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series, Beyond the Box Score
Game three will be hosted in Arlington tonight, but will the Cardinals manage to win any of the three games in Texas? Will the series come back to Busch Stadium?

Maybe I'm thinking too far in the future. Let's just concentrate on tonight.

K. Lohse vs. M. Harrison, 2011 regular season, Fangraphs
Kyle Lohse and Matt Harrison looks almost identical side-by-side. Lohse is a little older and his BABIP indicates a little luck. Without the luck, it shows Harrison has been the better pitcher this year, but only marginally.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching 2011
Texas Rangers Pitching 2011
Both pitching staffs were comparable in the regular season with the Rangers recording slightly more strikeouts and walks than the Cardinals. Their postseason numbers have been nearly identical thus far, but their World Series statistics are slightly off. Both teams have not been allowing as many runs as usual. The Cards have been striking out batters more often and walking them less often, while the Rangers had the opposite trend.

Each team has scored only four runs over the first two games. That is only an average of two runs per game. Everyone expects the offense to pick up in Texas with the hitter friendly ballpark and warmer temperatures. The pitching seemed so unsatisfactory in the Championship series, yet both teams have recorded amazing numbers overall. The law of averages show it should not last.

After all, it's the law. But who will break the law first, and when?

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