Sunday, June 8, 2014

Pirates 2015 40-Man Payroll Early Projection

Please be aware these are rough estimates using my judgment based upon information gathered from Pirates Prospects, Cot's Baseball Contracts, and MLB Depth Charts.

Full credit goes to Tim Williams who typically spearheads this project. I intend to provide a link to his website once he releases his much more reliable projection.

  • All salaries in bold are official.
  • All ages are as of the start of the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
  • Players in the minor leagues make $40,750 in their first year on the 40-man roster, $81,500 in their second year, and $122,250 in their third year. Any player with major league service time makes at least $81,500, regardless of how many years of service.
  • This is my own estimation and not an official projection.

According to Pirates Prospects the current payroll is approximately ~$78 million, so $10 million toward free agency actually seems like a bit of an underestimate. Ideally, the Buccos would pursue Russell Martin in addition to a pitcher before the 2014 July trade deadline and/or another pitcher from 2015 offseason free agency.

Friday, June 6, 2014

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Later (2015)

The Pirates rotation is bad now, however it won’t magically get better next season unless all of our pitchers get lucky. (Good) Luck is not something to rely upon unless you are already a lottery winner or something along those lines.

What happens if the Buccos fail to acquire a more capable arm before the trade deadline? What will they need to do to recover and prepare during the offseason? Wandy Rodriguez is gone and Francisco Liriano will (probably) become a free agent as well as Edinson Volquez. So who’s left?

James Santelli wrote a piece last August explaining why he thought the 2015 Pirates could be a 100-win team, although the prediction was made before Jameson Taillon needed Tommy John surgery. Nick Kingham still has a chance to make an appearance later this season, even though I expect the "standard" he’s-still-learning-no-really-we’re-not-just-trying-to-save-money-guys June or September call up. With any luck, we may see Taillon around this time next year as well.

I started out this post stating I did not like luck, not to mention there are quite a few games between Opening Day and June, so who will accompany Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton? If we are left with the status quo, then the Pirates will probably rely upon Jeff Locke, Brandon Cumpton, Stolmy Pimentel, and/or Casey Sadler.

I typically rely upon Pirates Prospects for this data, but their early look at the Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 payroll was last updated in January of 2012. The values in the table below are my best estimation as I attempted to imitate their work using MLB Depth Charts and Cot's Baseball Contracts, then comparing them to the dated information on Pirates Prospects.

If the Pirates choose to allow all of our potential free agents to leave, then they should have approximately $10 million to spend during the offseason. They very well may beg for Russell Martin to return and I would not criticize them for it. However, we are trying to address their rotation, so let’s see what we can afford if that money was dedicated to a starting pitcher. Sorry James, but I don't intend to suggest Johan Santana this time around.

These spreadsheets were compiled using data I gathered from FanGraphs. The players included in the following spreadsheets are all free agent starting pitchers included on MLB Trade Rumors 2015 Free Agents post.

There are 41 starting pitchers in the free agent pool according to MLBTR, however a few have not appeared yet this season and we can expect several to sign extensions before the season's end. I sorted them using WAR/GS, which is simply wins above replacement divided by their total games started. This should give us a basic understanding of how valuable a pitcher has been during each start.

If we only use this near-sighted information, then we can observe some players are pitching very well, while others are playing at or below replacement level. Contract value is typically determined with greater scope than just a single season, so it would be best to increase our scale to the past three years. Finally, you may wonder why some rows are colored green, orange, or blue. I will touch upon that after this final table:

Green = Workhorse, dependable (>360IP, averaged >120IP per season)
Orange = Sub-par reliability (180-360IP, averaged 60-120IP per season)
Blue = Injury prone, high risk (<180IP, averaged <60IP per season)

Neal Huntington has targeted pitchers as recovery projects over the past few seasons, but it would be ideal to see him select at least one reliable, dependable arm for a change. We saw mild success in the past with A.J. Burnett, Liriano, and even Volquez is playing better than expected. We also saw (eventual) disasters with Kevin Correia, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, and Wandy. I understand the Pirates may not be able to afford the best arms on the market (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto) and other pitchers may expect a big raise (Aaron Harang, Jason Hammel, Ervin Santana) whether or not they truly deserve it.

In order to predict contract values, I borrowed research conducted by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs and Lewie Pollis on Beyond the Box Score (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season and How Much Does a Win Really Cost?). They determined a win is worth somewhere between $5 and $7 million. With this knowledge in hand, I awarded certain win values to pitchers depending upon their previously noted reliability. If a pitcher was deemed dependable, then I allotted him $6 million per win; if sub-par, $5.5; and if high risk, $5.

I would expect the Pirates have a chance to target anyone I pointed out in the table above. If it were me, then I would take my pick between Yovani Gallardo, Dan Haren, or Justin Masterson at $10 million. If they rolled the dice with a little more risk, then I would not be upset if they ended up with Brandon Morrow, Chad Billingsley, Brett Anderson, Chris Capuano, or even Josh Johnson, but only at a price tag of $6 million or less.

Who would you like to see wear black and gold while standing atop our mound?

Thursday, June 5, 2014

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Now (2014)

Yesterday I was lurking Twitter while scouring for interesting tidbits of news worth retweeting when I stumbled upon a conversation between two of my favorite Pirates informants: Pat Lackey and Tim Williams. Pat started by referencing an article that was published to Fangraphs on Wednesday ("Gregory Polanco Won’t Fix The Pirates’ Real Problem" by Mike Petriello) and they started to roll from there:

The above conversation was compiled using Conweets

We have complained about the Pirates' sluggish slugging when they are actually very close to league average. Poor pitching is the real dilemma, but how and when do they fix this problem? According to Mike, he would see Neal Huntington shock us with a trade to acquire either James Shields or Jeff Samardzija. Pat and Tim did not like the short-sightedness of Shields, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, and agreed upon Smartzilla. They also mentioned David Price as another alternative.

Any of these pitchers would be exciting additions to the Pirates rotation, but will they be buyers at the deadline? Perhaps. Who will be selling? The race is still relatively close, however it is fairly safe to assume the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rays, Astros, Padres, and Cubs could all be potential sellers. Currently, they each own a losing record and their playoff expectancy is below ten percent. (Playoff Odds)

Who could be considered from these preemptive basement sales? If we only pay attention to players without attractive team-friendly contracts who remain under team control for at least one additional season, then the list could include the following:

How many of these aforementioned pitchers will actually appear on the trade block? I would be surprised to see more than half of these names mentioned, but I listed them regardless as they fit the description: A starting pitcher in their arbitration years who is currently or historically capable of pitching better than average.

All the options listed above appear to be better options than Edinson Volquez except Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill. Price or Samardzija are certainly the best options, but there are others to consider as well.

Who would you like to see in the rotation in addition to (or to substitute) any of our current Pirates starting pitchers? Who would you avoid?

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

2014 Overall Rankings - Final Update

Spring training is over and Opening Day is here. This offseason has been seriously unkind to pitchers' arms. You will find many starting pitchers on the projected disabled list and quite a few uses of the phrase "Tommy John."

The 25-man rosters are set, so we should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2014 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or using the link at the top of the page.

Many of your fantasy baseball teams should be drafted by now, but this should keep you up to date even if your draft is still not completed. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have that draft coming up or have your team and need to make adjustments:

The following players will likely miss the entire 2014 season:

The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:
Reference: MLB's Injury Report
I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Give me a shout or leave a comment if it helped you. The encouragement is great motivation.

Good luck in your leagues this season!

Monday, March 10, 2014

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft #2

Happy #MockDraftMonday!

I guess I was under a rock when ESPN announced today's impromptu fantasy baseball holiday where their experts occasionally hopped into the mock draft lobby with other users to draft alongside them. A few fortunate enough to join a mock league with one of them received pretty nice advice and had some good fun. I arrived late to the party, so I was not drafting against any notable experts.

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

Once again I did not win the draft. In fact, my team is worst than my first mock draft attempt.

I took my own advice and waited on pitching, but I think I probably waited far too long. The majority of my pitchers came in rounds 13-25 aside from Jose Fernandez and Koji Uehara in rounds 5 and 11, respectively. Most of these pitchers in the later rounds of the draft have the potential to be good, but you might bring you might find yourself crossing your fingers too hard. Tim Lincecum, Brandon Beachy, Taijuan Walker, Ian Kennedy, and Josh Johnson all fit this description. Risking your draft on a few guys may result in a worthwhile investment, but what happens if they all tank? Well, there goes your season.

I was much more satisfied with my infield this time and I can thank Miguel Cabrera for helping me start the draft strong. There is some risk in Mark Teixeira, Jhonny Peralta, and Manny Machado given their background, but I feel their draft slots matched well. If Tex fails to perform, then perhaps Justin Morneau in a Rockies uniform will help fill first base instead. This outfield is strong, perhaps even stronger than my previous draft. It all depends upon Jose Bautista's health and the performances from both Hamiltons: Josh and Billy.

I find myself drafting a lot of the same players and that may be because everyone is referencing ESPN's ranking list while I am using my own. I probably should hop into a Yahoo mock draft for comparison's sake.

Once again, you can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

Friday, March 7, 2014

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

Today, I fell victim to boredom and so I thought, "What better time to take my Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings list for a test drive than now?"

I hopped into the ESPN mock draft lobby, joined 12-team snake draft, and this is what happened:

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.
According to ESPN I did not win the draft, and I tend to agree with them. If I compare their projected estimates to my Stat Targets in Roto Leagues, then I notice the scale is very close, which assures me my data is still prevalent even though it is two years old.

My outfield is solid, the core pitching staff is good, but my infielders scare me a lot. Corey Hart and Xander Bogaerts are the biggest question marks considering neither have seen much playing time at the professional level over the past year. I have some concerns with Everth Cabrera as well, but then again everyone who accepted suspensions last season have to something to prove us all.

The backend of my pitching staff doesn't keep me hopeful either. Huston Street is almost always prone to injury, Francisco Liriano was great last season but there's no telling if he will repeat, Neftali Feliz has not pitched in what feels like ages, Ubaldo Jimenez was only good toward the end of last season, and Kyle Lohse... I just don't trust Lohse, especially not with the Brewers who's running with a skeleton crew.

My best value picks were undoubtedly Matt Holliday in round 7 and Curtis Granderson in round 14. I have no idea why everyone seems to be so down on Holliday, but I will gladly capitalize off everyone else's error. The Grandy man is on the decline, he will probably hurt the team batting average, and Citi Field will likely zap a lot of his power; but I feel much better when I steal him as pick number 164 as compared to the consensus of the experts (110, round 10-11).

If I could do this draft over again, then I would have opted to take an infielder or two earlier than round nine. Maybe I could have swapped in Josh Donaldson or Allen Craig in the earlier rounds and wait on pitching until at least round six.

You can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

Monday, February 24, 2014

2014 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Updated April 2, 2014 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet

Code Website Name Twitter Weighted Value Last Update
BP Baseball Professor @BaseballProf
February 22
CBS1 Scott White @CBSScottWhite
March 27
CBS2 Al Melchior @almelccbs
March 24
CBS3 Michael Hurcomb @CBSHurc
March 30
CHGM ClubhouseGM @ClubhouseGM
February 18
ESPN1 ESPN Fantasy Staff @ESPNFantasy
March 26
ESPN2 Tristan H. Cockcroft @SultanofStat
April 2
FA Fantasy Assembly @TheJimFinch
March 17
FBC Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks @FBCrackerjacks
February 27
FC Fantasy Cafe @rjwhite1
March 23
FGD Fantasy Gameday @Fantasy_Gameday
March 11
FS Fantasy Squads @FantasySquads
March 28
FP911 Fantasy Pros 911 @MattDFP911
March 28
FOX Fox Sports Staff @FoxSports
March 25
MLB Major League Baseball @MLB
March 31
MrCS Mr. Cheatsheet @MrCheatSheet
March 26
MrFF Mr. Fantasy Freak @Awies28
December 22
RAZZ Razzball @Razzball
March 25
RC RotoChamp @RotoChamp
March 31
YHOO Yahoo Sports Staff @YahooSports
March 28

This guide provided me with success in 2012, so it's here to return in 2014. My apologies to the one and only user who submitted a request for it last year, but I was preoccupied with my own work. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along.

Players who will not play in 2014 were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera in their top two which is why they have the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft them with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk or the possibility of reaching.
Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide has helped me win several leagues and I hope it helps you win your league, too.

I can't promise any new content beyond this guide, so please don't hold your breath. I don't want to be held liable for any asphyxiations.