Offseason Christmas Wishlist

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house.
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse...

Neal Huntington may be asleep as well. Just take a look at some of Pittsburgh's questionable situations and their answers for them thus far.

Pittsburgh's last major league transaction sent Jose Veras to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for McGehee on December 12th. Pirates Prospects now estimates their 40-man payroll at approximately $46 million, which is at least $4 million less than their originally announced budget. I am satisfied with the way they answered most of their questions, but first base still leaves me wanting more. I would not be against them targeting an additional starting pitcher as well.

   Catcher
x Ryan Doumit contract option declined.
x Chris Snyder contract option declined.
o Rod Barajas signed for $4MM over 1 year.

   First Base
x Derrek Lee becomes a free agent and declines arbitration.
o Garrett Jones offered arbitration.
o Lee, Carlos Pena.

   Third Base
x Pedro Alvarez may have another dismal season.
o Casey McGehee acquired from Milwaukee.

   Shortstop
x Ronny Cedeno contract option declined.
o Clint Barmes signed for $10.5MM over 2 years.

   Starting Pitcher
x Paul Maholm contract option declined.
x Ross Ohlendorf non-tendered and released.
o Erik Bedard signed for $4.5MM over 1 year.
o Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Francis, Rich Harden, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Saunders.

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John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals have my permission to have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

The Cards may have lost Albert Pujols, but signing Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright's return should recover any wins they may have lost without him while maintaining their $110 million payroll. Fantastic.

   First Base
x Pujols becomes a free agent and signs with Los Angeles Angels.
o Lance Berkman shifts from right field to play first base.

   Second Base
x Nick Punto becomes a free agent and signs with Boston Red Sox.
x Ryan Theriot non-tendered and released.
o Skip Schumaker resigned for $3MM over 2 years.
o Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, and Allen Craig are under team control through 2013.

   Shortstop
x Rafael Furcal becomes a free agent.
o Furcal is resigned for $14MM over 2 years.

   Center Field
x Jon Jay is under team control through 2013, but should not play every day.
o Beltran could cover center field on rare occasions to allow Craig playing time in right field.

   Right Field
x Berkman shifts to first base.
x Craig will begin the season on the disabled list.
o Beltran signed for $26MM over 2 years.

   Starting Pitcher
x Edwin Jackson becomes a free agent.
o Wainwright returns from Tommy John surgery.

   Relief Pitcher
x Octavio Dotel becomes a free agent and signs with Detroit Tigers.
o J.C. Romero signed for $750K over 1 year.

Key
Team Losses: x
Questionable: o
Acceptable: o

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What more could I ask for Christmas?

Contract extensions for Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, and Wainwright.

Thanks for listening, Santa.

2012 Mock Draft, Review & Recap

So there you have it. My first ever fantasy baseball mock draft before the 2012 Major League Baseball season. It was a privilege to perform this exercise with some of the most intelligent guys in this department.

BleacherGM made a list of everyone's draft pick and sorted them by round and team. I suggest checking them out to see how each team turned out. I am not sure if he plans to determine a champion of this draft, but I had my own theory. I decided to compile everyone's draft picks into an Excel spreadsheet and use Bill James' 2012 projections from FanGraphs.

There were two players whose projections were missing (Chris Young, Matt Moore), so I used the FanGraphs fan projections in their stead. I did not adjust several other players who may miss significant playing time (Ryan Howard, Ryan Braun, Allen Craig), could be demoted (Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Juan Oviedo, Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez) or may have been promoted (Daniel Bard, Matt Capps, Chris Sale, Matt Thornton). There are still several months before spring training and opening day, which is why I chose not to adjust statistics based upon incomplete data and swirling rumors.





I'm not here to toot my own horn... Okay, maybe once. *honk*

My team ranked highly in all categories except home runs and saves. Abandoning those categories may have allowed me to win the batting and pitching crowns, though I wish my team had a more defined source of power. David Ortiz is usually great, but I would have preferred someone younger. I regret not drafting a second closer earlier, but several teams decided to draft more than just two to ensure they won the saves category. I gave up on saves after realizing this and chose to draft more quality starters instead to preserve the other four categories.

I know a lot of the guys were accrediting askROTObaseball with the best team as we chatted during the draft. He made some pretty strong choices, which explains why he is ranked second on my projected list. He won the runs and stolen bases categories by a landslide, which is why he could have afforded swapping one or two of his offense picks for more homers and runs batted in.

TribeBball was right behind him even though he placed quite a few absentee ballots. The power is definitely there, but at the expense of his batting average and quite a few stolen bases. He was also tied for the most saves due to drafting four relief pitchers and K-Rod's projection as a closer, even though he is currently setting up for Brewers in front of John Axford. These choices were detrimental to his win and strikeout rankings.

We may do this again sometime before spring training, so stay tuned if you'd like to see more fantasy baseball mock drafting.

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I did receive one critique from an anonymous commenter on Wednesday (don't be shy next time!) who approved of three of my nine offense choices and only one of my seven pitchers. They left their preferences had they been in my shoes, so let's see if their team is an improvement over mine.


These changes would cause my rotisserie league score to slide down to 95 and I slip to a five point lead. BleacherGM would take over as the dominant offense, while RepLevel would assume control of pitching. These altered choices would provide more home runs, wins, and strikeouts at the expense of runs, batting average, ERA, and WHIP.

I probably would still favor my team compared to this even without the statistical comparison. Their reasoning makes sense, though I would not have drafted Howard due to his questionable season start due to his injury. In addition, I am just not the type to draft so many pitchers in the earlier rounds, especially since there are so many quality pitchers available in the later rounds.

Don't forget, blog reader! Choosing one player in favor of another does not necessarily mean everything will work out for your aforementioned team. Altering my draft picks would certainly cause repercussions throughout the draft which would cause the other managers to change their approach. For example, if I chose Carl Crawford instead of Jered Weaver, then rytwin would be forced to make a different selection and Weaver would land on a different team.

Time travelers should be careful when they alter the past, otherwise your best friend could be your dad.
(The Terminator)

2012 Mock Draft, Rounds 13-16

As I stated previously, I am participating in a fantasy baseball slow mock draft being coordinated by Jeffrey from BleacherGM, which can be followed on Couch Managers. There are 14 teams and there will be a total of 16 rounds. The draft began on Tuesday, December 13th and was originally anticipated to last until sometime in February.

I took a short trip with my girlfriend, so I was out of town for about two days and had to rely on my queue a little bit. We returned Wednesday night where I saw there were only two picks remaining in the draft. It is now Thursday morning and there is no solid indicator, but it looks like the draft ended around 7:00am CST. We had the potential to finish last night, but I accept this ending as it means four of my five projections were accurate and it was still over a month quicker than expected.

224 picks / 213 hours = 0.95 hours per pick or 25.24 picks per day.

Round #13, Pick #178 - Clay Buchholz
I should have guessed the rest of the guys would begin scrambling for closers. I had quite a few starters ranked on top of my queue and Buchholz was drafted as a result of my being auto queued. If I had the opportunity to make a human intervention, then I would have selected one of the three closers drafted after me (Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Andrew Bailey). Buchholz missed a lot of 2011, but I still like him in my rotation even though he was a mistake.

Round #14, Pick #187 - Jaime Garcia
Garcia was a human decision, though fan-weighted. I preferred taking the young lefty from the defending world champions and attempt to scrape the bottom of the barrel for my last two picks.

Round #15, Pick #206 - Torii Hunter
You can criticize Hunter all you want. It's probably justified, especially considering the Angels' lineup is still up in the air. There are only two slots I consider set in stone: Albert Pujols at first base, batting third and Hunter in right field batting behind him. He should collect at least 20 homers, but perhaps his batting average will be rejuvenated due to Pujols' presence. Wishful thinking.

Round #16, Pick #215 - Frank Francisco
I had several bottom dweller closer options in my final round including Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Rodriguez, Daniel Bard, and "Leo Nunez." I decided upon Francisco who was recently traded from the Blue Jays to the Mets. Earlier reports from New York show he is the most likely candidate to receive the team closer role, which makes sense given his great career strikeout rates (9.9 K/9, 2.5 K/BB).

*FanGraphs fans projection

Rounds 1 & 2
Rounds 3 & 4
Rounds 5 & 6
Rounds 7 & 8
Rounds 9 & 10
Rounds 11 & 12
Rounds 13 - 16

Critiques are welcomed!

2012 Mock Draft, Rounds 11 & 12

As I stated previously, I am participating in a fantasy baseball slow mock draft being coordinated by Jeffrey from BleacherGM, which can be followed on Couch Managers. There are 14 teams and there will be a total of 16 rounds. The draft began on Tuesday, December 13th and was originally anticipated to last until sometime in February.

Round nine was a bit of a struggle, but we rolled through round ten pretty quick. I even managed to take my 11th round draft pick before we stalled again. We probably would still be rolling along if BleacherGM would not have disabled auto queue. 159 picks were made in nearly 155 hours, which gives us an average of 0.98 hours per pick or 24.53 picks per day. Our draft rate has sustained a fairly steady pace as we creep closer toward the finish line. Only four rounds left.

Expected Date to Complete at Current Rate: Thursday, December 22, 2011
Latest Date to Complete at Maximum Rate: Tuesday, January 10, 2012

I should mention I will be taking a short trip starting Tuesday afternoon, so I may have to rely on my queue.

Round #11, Pick #150 - Yadier Molina
I believe you should not let your inner fan take control of your picks, which is why I actually regret picking Molina. He's one of the most popular players in St. Louis since Albert Pujols left the team and plays great defense, but it doesn't matter in an offense-only fantasy world. He was on top of the heap of leftover catchers with the catcher slot still open for three other teams. I would have considered taking a second closer this round, but all of the "tier two" closers were taken after my last pick.

Round #12, Pick #159 - Nick Markakis
I had Brandon Morrow on top of my queue to enforce my strikeout category, but he was taken just before me. Markakis was my silver medal in round 12. He plays for the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, which means they face pitchers like CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, James Shields, and possibly Yu Darvish more often than other teams in weaker divisions. However he still manages to post 70+ runs and RBIs, 10+ home runs and stolen bases, and a respectable batting average in the .300 range.

*FanGraphs fans projection

Rounds 1 & 2
Rounds 3 & 4
Rounds 5 & 6
Rounds 7 & 8
Rounds 9 & 10
Rounds 11 & 12
Rounds 13 - 16

Critiques are welcomed!

2012 Mock Draft, Rounds 9 & 10

As I stated previously, I am participating in a fantasy baseball slow mock draft being coordinated by Jeffrey from BleacherGM, which can be followed on Couch Managers. There are 14 teams and there will be a total of 16 rounds. The draft began on Tuesday, December 13th and was originally anticipated to last until sometime in February.

Five days have past, but progression stalled during round nine due to three managers using their full eight hour time limits. 136 picks were made in over 132 hours, which gives us an average of 0.97 hours per pick or 24.66 picks per day. As you can see, our rates are unfortunately trending upwards. It was a lot worse earlier until we had a recent draft "boost."

Expected Date to Complete at Current Rate: Thursday, December 22, 2011
Latest Date to Complete at Maximum Rate: Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Round #9, Pick #122 - David Ortiz
There is plenty of quality pitching still available, so much so I felt it would have been dumb to pass up on Ortiz again. He's 36 and on the decline, but I'm comfortable with him in my utility spot considering he accepted Boston's arbitration offer. Run production is a safe assumption as long he is a part of the Red Sox lineup.

Round #10, Pick #131 - Mat Latos
I was still under the firm belief that pitchers are abundant while good offense is becoming more scarce, but just could not pass up on the opportunity to snag Latos. Now he can be counted on for all categories since he was recently traded to Cincinnati, even wins. I think he's going to be a stud in 2012.

*FanGraphs fans projection

Rounds 1 & 2
Rounds 3 & 4
Rounds 5 & 6
Rounds 7 & 8
Rounds 9 & 10
Rounds 11 & 12
Rounds 13 - 16

Critiques are welcomed!