Thursday, October 20, 2011

Unexpected Underdogs

I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.

National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.

National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.

World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.

Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score
Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score
The Cardinals were not expected to earn the Wild Card slot and reach the postseason, but they did. They were not expected to beat the Phillies, nor the Brewers, but they did. They are still not expected to win the World Series versus the Rangers. How long will their tear continue and, if it does, how long will it take non-believers to accept them as a threat?

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