Cards Depend on Carp, Game 7

I am still extremely excited after last night's game, so this post will be brief using an assortment of great links.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: The way most of us watched Game 6...
"This is exactly what the 2011 Cardinals are all about: drama. They’re up, they’re down, they’re underground, but they are never boring. And they LOVE playing from behind."

Beyond the Box Score: David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History
"The returns are in... David Freese now owns the highest WPA in a WS game. His .953 beats Kirk Gibson's .870."

Beyond the Box Score: Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
"We are no longer in the realm of simple probability. ... We now live in a quantum realm where Texas' and St. Louis' title hopes are both alive and dead simultaneously. It is our very observation of the final out that will collapse the wave function (and possibly the Rangers' bullpen) and present us with one of two realities. ... In other words, just watch the game. Watch history in the making."

FanGraphs: Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison
"Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful."


I am a little nervous with Chris Carpenter taking the mound on short rest, but I would have chosen him given the other options (Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Jake Westbrook). My girlfriend and I will definitely be out with the rest of St. Louis tonight. We want to be part of this moment.

Will Carp be masterful like in game five of the NLDS or will he flounder on short rest?

Carp Flourishing, via USA Today

Carp Floundering, via Steve Creek Outdoors

Roller Coaster of Emotion

I probably could summarize all eleven innings of game six with just one word: Wow!


Source: FanGraphs
FanGraphs chose a different, but equally fitting, word: Baseball!

I tried to explain the graph to a friend last night while I was still experiencing this rush. Picture the graph as a roller coaster. Hop in the car on the leftside of the graph and ride it out until you reach the end.

What a crazy ride.

I want to give this game the dignity it deserves as one of the most intense World Series games of all time and the best game I ever had the opportunity to watch on television. It would have been a close second if I actually was in attendance at Busch Stadium (like my girlfriend's brother, Sam, or Aaron Hooks from Cards Diaspora), but the position would still be reserved for the 1994 All Star game I saw with my father.

Jaime Garcia had a shaky start. He allowed the first three batters to reach base and surrendered a run to the Texas Rangers offense in the first inning. The St. Louis Cardinals quickly responded with a Lance Berkman two-run home run. The 2-1 lead would be very short-lived as Garcia allowed a second earned run in the second inning to tie the game.

Colby Lewis started shutting down the Cards offense one-by-one and Garcia finally seemed to settle down by throwing a scoreless third inning, but he was gone by the fourth in lieu of the TLR bullpen pitching parade (I need to coin that term).

The Cards stopped following lesson number two from my Survival Guide: "Stop making mistakes." Matt Holliday dropped a routine fly ball, Fernando Salas overthrew a force out at second base, and David Freese dropped an infield pop up. These three errors resulted in two unearned runs.

Luckily, the Rangers made a few blunders of their own. Michael Young bobbled a ground ball and Elvis Andrus tossed a ball wide of first base, which pulled Young off the bag. The Cards managed to tie the game with two unearned runs for themselves and exited the sixth inning 4-4.

Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz each homered in the top of the seventh, then scored once more thanks in part to a wild pitch by Octavio Dotel before finally getting out of the inning with the score 7-4.

Derek Holland entered the game as a reliever earlier during the sixth inning. Many thought his pitching had become infallible after pitching an 8.1 inning gem in game four, then 1.2 innings of solid relief in game six. Allen Craig changed their minds with a solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning to bring the score to 7-5.

Everyone seemed depressed and morbid as Neftali Feliz entered the bottom of the ninth inning. He struck out the first batter he faced, then Albert Pujols came to the plate. The announcers mentioned, once again, this may be Pujol's last at bat as a Cardinal. He delivered with a double, his first and only hit of the World Series outside of game three. Berkman was intentionally walked and Craig struck out, which led to David Freese. He fell behind in the count to 1-2, then tripled to deep right field to tie the game. We move on to 10th!

Jason Motte remained in the game in the 10th for his second inning of relief. He retired the first batter he faced, then allowed a single, and Josh Hamilton swatted a home run to right field with the first pitch he saw. Motte retired the next two batters and exited the inning with a score of 9-7 as the potential losing pitcher.

Darren Oliver entered the game for the Rangers to face against several of the weakest Cardinals hitters. I was nervous. Daniel Descalso singled, Jon Jay singled, and Kyle Lohse hit the weirdest bunt I have ever seen that flew over Beltre's head to advance both runners. Scott Feldman relieved Oliver and Ryan Theriot grounded out, but it sent a run home. Albert came to the plate with a runner third base and two outs. I thought this could be his defining moment, then they walked him. Berkman responded with a clutch single to score the tying run. Onward to the 11th!

Jake Westbrook entered the 11th inning and allowed one single; otherwise, he was great. He provided the greatest WPA among all of the Cardinals pitchers used in the game and the score remained tied.

Freese returned to the plate in the bottom of the eleventh inning as the first batter to face Mark Lowe, the Rangers new relief pitcher. I could tell he was swinging for the fences after he nearly fell over for the first strike, so I decided to retrieve our secret weapon:

Rally "Squirrel"

Meet Harrison. He is our Rally Gerbil since no squirrels were within reach.

Freese worked the count to 3-2, then launched a game-winning and series-tying solo homer to almost dead center field measured at 428 feet. The Cardinals win, 10-9! The stadium erupted as he rounded the bases and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate who proceeded to tear his jersey off his body.

Harrison was rewarded with a pumpkin seed for being such a good luck charm.

David Freese takes a bow after his Game 6 heroics, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

The World Series will be decided in game seven! Will the Cards take their 11th World Series title or will the Rangers earn their first?

St. Louis Cardinals Survival Guide

Lessons to learn from playing the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

1) Get on base however you can. "Walks are good."

2) Stop making mistakes. "Errors are bad, especially when the game is on the line."

3) Fly balls are great when they travel 400 feet. "Home runs are good. They score runs."

4) No free passes. "Walks are bad. Seven walks in one game is terrible."

5a) Stop stranding runners. "Every run counts."

5b) Listen to the manager. "Albert is great, but he is not a player-manager."

5c) Can you hear the manager? "Warm up Motte. I said, 'MOTTE!'"

Busch Stadium before Game 6, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Good luck tonight, fellas.

Circling the Drain

Will the St. Louis Cardinals follow the last few drops of rain water tonight after game six?

The clouds have not yet lifted, nor have the winds subsided, but at least the rain stopped here in St. Louis. It will be quite cold once again, but the game should be played without any interruption from mother nature. If the first two games of this series is any implication of what may happen tonight (and possibly tomorrow), then this may be a low scoring affair.

Jaime Garcia vs. Colby Lewis, Regular Season 2011

Thursday night will feature a rematch of game two between Jaime Garcia and Colby Lewis. Both pitched amazingly well earlier this series, but the Texas Rangers edged the St. Louis Cardinals to win that game 2-1. Both pitchers had above average seasons with comparable run support, though the numbers suggest Garcia ran into a little bad luck, while Lewis enjoyed some good luck. Pitchers Hit Eighth show the rescheduled game and giving Garcia one more day of rest may work in the Cardinals' favor.

Things are different than before. The Rangers are one win away from being declared World Series champions. The situation is dire for the Cardinals and they need to act now if they want to play again tomorrow.

World Series Intermission, Rain

It certainly is good I waited to write this post regarding game six of the World Series.

With persistent rain in the forecast, Major League Baseball has announced that Wednesday night's scheduled Game 6 of the World Series has been postponed. It will be made up on Thursday at 7:05 p.m. CT.

From St. Louis Cardinals Official Site

It's usually a bad idea to back a dog into a corner. The Texas Rangers may want to rethink what they are trying to do to the St. Louis Cardinals. I already wrote about the Cardinals being a good underdog, but I suppose this is inspiration to expand upon it.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Season & Postseason

Coolstandings predicted the likelihood of each team's chances of making the playoffs, then continued their calculation into the postseason. The Cards hit their lowest point on August 27th when they had only a 1.1% chance to reach the postseason, then clinched the Wild Card almost exactly one month later marking one of the best comebacks in Major League Baseball history.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Postseason

The Cardinals have continued their improbable performance in the playoffs as they knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were favored to win the NLDS and NLCS, while the Cards entered with only a 35.6% and 45.5% chance, respectively. In particular, the Phillies had the best record in 2011 and were most likely to go all the way to win the World Series.

This is a do or die situation for the Cards. Many are speculating the possibility of Tony La Russa sending Chris Carpenter back to the mound on Thursday on three days rest in light of game six being rescheduled. I hope he sticks with Jaime Garcia as he pitched great in game two and took a no-decision. The Cards lost the game due to a fielding error and an unusually weak offense.

Beyond the Box Score researched how well pitchers have fared in the postseason with only three days rest since 2005. Eight of the 16 pitchers tossed quality starts, but the pitcher's respective team won only six times in that time frame.

When I think about Carp on short rest, it makes me think about his start against the Phillies in game two of the NLDS. Sure, the Cards may have won that game, but he gave up four earned runs over three innings pitched. The bullpen saved him for the remaining six innings by shutting the Phillies down. I am not sure it is wise to rely on the TLR parade of pitchers after game five.

The rain may help rest the Cardinals overworked pitching staff.

Game Five Headache

As per the title of this post, last night's game made my head hurt. 

C.J. Wilson did his best Edwin Jackson impersonation, walking five, but the St. Louis Cardinals offense could not capitalize against the Texas Rangers. They were 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 runners on base. Of course that value excludes Allen Craig who was caught "stealing" second base in the 7th inning and caught stealing second base in the 9th.


Source: FanGraphs
The Cardinals bullpen finally collapsed so hard that apparently the phones stopped working. Tony La Russa called Lance Lynn to the mound in the bottom of the 8th inning to intentionally walk Ian Kinsler, then pulled him in favor of Jason Motte. It boggled my mind.

The only factors of this game I enjoyed were Skip Schumaker starting in centerfield over Jon Jay and Chris Carpenter's seven inning performance. Skip actually recorded a hit, which is more than Jay has over the course of the entire World Series. Carp may have given up two home runs, but the score was still tied, 2-2, when he exited the game. It was a quality start and I almost wish he kept the ball in the 8th instead of handing it over to the bullpen parade.

I am going to stop and pass the blogging analysis torch to the following blogs before my headache returns. The Cardinals blogging community needs some love after last night, so please give the following articles a read and subscribe.

Beyond the Box Score
Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep

Cardinal 70
Winter is Coming

The Cardinal Nation blog 
Two of a record 65 Cardinals relief changes that did not work

Cards Diaspora
Reaction: World Series Game 5

FanGraphs
Did You Say Motte or Lynn? Ah, Screw it.
When IBBs Attack
Why Was Allen Craig Running?

Pitchers Hit Eighth
Can You Hear Me Now?

Viva El Birdos
Saying not very much at all about the Cardinals' Game 5 loss

Night and Day

I am somewhat happy about skipping yesterday's preview of World Series game four. After both teams scored a total of only eight runs in chilly Missouri, everyone expected the ball to fly off the bat in warm Texas. The St. Louis Cardinals answered those initial expectations by scoring almost twice that many runs by themselves in game three to win 15-7.

The Cards recorded 15 hits in that game, five were by Albert Pujols. Of those 15 hits, four were home runs and Pujols was accountable for almost a quarter-mile of them (3 HR = 1,275 feet total).

I had other engagements earlier in the afternoon and was not completely familiar with Edwin Jackson nor Derek Holland, aside from their above-average regular seasons and below-average postseasons thus far, so I thought I could skip the preview and analyze game four's outcome.

Would the hot offensive streak continue? Oy vey.

The Texas Rangers won, 4-0, and tied the series 2-2. The game almost hurt to watch as a Cardinals fan. Holland completely shut down the Cards offense in 8.1 innings pitched, while allowing only two hits. Lance Berkman was the owner of both hits and he very well couldn't create four runs by himself. Jackson allowed seven free passes over 5.1 innings. Let me emphasize that:

Seven walks.

He was pulled in the sixth inning after issuing two back-to-back walks, then Mitchell Boggs threw a fastball higher than intended, which traveled farther than he wanted. Mike Napoli hit a three-run homer to make the score 4-0, which is how the game eventually ended.

It is amazing how a lineup can be so devastating one day, then so fragile and weak the next. It's like night and day, but that's just how baseball works sometimes.

Game five marks the last game played in Arlington. The outcome will result in a do-or-die situation for the losing team in St. Louis.

Will we see a night or day performance?

Will the Cardinals have a happy flight home tonight or will they face elimination on Wednesday?

Pujols Hot in Texas, Cards Win

The St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers relied on pitching for games one and two with cold temperatures in Missouri. Albert Pujols went 0 for six with an error in the ninth inning of game two. He was harshly criticized when he dodged the media. How did he respond in game three?

Albert Pujols, World Series, Game 3

Albert got hot!

I wrote about how he recorded the best performance in a postseason game in Cardinals franchise history against the Milwaukee Brewers in game two of the NLCS. Fungoes wrote about how that same performance ranked him 24th overall.

Albert was accredited with creating 11.667 runs in a 16-7 romping over the Texas Rangers. His postseason performance ranks him 3rd all time. He crushed three home runs in a single game in the World Series, which allows him to go down in history with Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth who also accomplished this feat.




Source: FanGraphs
The Cards were never losing at any point in tonight's game, but Albert's first home run essentially sealed the Rangers' fate in the sixth inning. His second and third blasts did not even appear on the radar, they were just icing on the delicious cake.

Albert Pujols hits HR number three, St. Louis Cardinals Facebook

Rangers Still WS Favorites, Game 3

The Texas Rangers proved they will not go quietly into the night when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals and tied the series 1-1. The Rangers were favorites to win the World Series when they entered game one, marginal favorites in game two, and favorites again in game three. Beyond the Box Score shows their likelihood to win the World Series has bounced back to their initial level before the series began.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series, Beyond the Box Score

Game three will be hosted in Arlington tonight, but will the Cardinals manage to win any of the three games in Texas? Will the series come back to Busch Stadium?

Maybe I'm thinking too far in the future. Let's just concentrate on tonight.

K. Lohse vs. M. Harrison, 2011 regular season, Fangraphs

Kyle Lohse and Matt Harrison looks almost identical side-by-side. Lohse is a little older and his BABIP indicates a little luck. Without the luck, it shows Harrison has been the better pitcher this year, but only marginally.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching 2011

Texas Rangers Pitching 2011

Both pitching staffs were comparable in the regular season with the Rangers recording slightly more strikeouts and walks than the Cardinals. Their postseason numbers have been nearly identical thus far, but their World Series statistics are slightly off. Both teams have not been allowing as many runs as usual. The Cards have been striking out batters more often and walking them less often, while the Rangers had the opposite trend.

Each team has scored only four runs over the first two games. That is only an average of two runs per game. Everyone expects the offense to pick up in Texas with the hitter friendly ballpark and warmer temperatures. The pitching seemed so unsatisfactory in the Championship series, yet both teams have recorded amazing numbers overall. The law of averages show it should not last.

After all, it's the law. But who will break the law first, and when?

Rangers Outplay Cardinals, Tie Series

No happy flight to Arlington.

The St. Louis Cardinals were defeated by the Texas Rangers 2-1 to tie the series at one apiece and now heads to Arlington, Texas for game three.

I applaud Jaime Garcia for pitching his best game this postseason (7.0 IP, 7 SO, 3 H, 1 BB) and Allen Craig delivered another RBI single for the second night in a row. He seriously needs to play full-time next season.

Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus were amazing on the field, vacuuming every ball that came near them. I found myself yelling at the television screen on several occasions in frustrated disbelief and admiration.

"Yeah! Nice hit! ... Wait, what?! ... Wow." Something along those lines.

The Cards were leading 1-0 into the ninth inning, but the Rangers did everything they could to stay alive and win. Tony La Russa called upon his "not-closer," Jason Motte, who had been superb in September and throughout the postseason.

Kinsler and Andrus had caused me grief throughout the night, so it seems appropriate it was they who scored the tying and go-ahead runs before the inning ended. Neftali Feliz throws even harder than Motte, which is hard to fathom, so making contact was nigh improbable for the Cardinals final batters.



Source: FanGraphs

The only players on the Cards offense who attained a positive WPA were Craig, Yadier Molina, and Garcia. Garcia is pretty good for a pitcher, but give me a break. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday were both hitless.

The weekend forecast in Texas ranges from a high of 82°F and low of 59°F, so hopefully the offense warms up.

Unexpected Underdogs

I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.

National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.

National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.

World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.

Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals were not expected to earn the Wild Card slot and reach the postseason, but they did. They were not expected to beat the Phillies, nor the Brewers, but they did. They are still not expected to win the World Series versus the Rangers. How long will their tear continue and, if it does, how long will it take non-believers to accept them as a threat?

Cards, Carpenter Win Game One

The St. Louis Cardinals took game one over the Texas Rangers with a 3-2 victory thanks to quality pitching from Chris Carpenter, a timely pinch hit by Allen Craig, and the Cards bullpen. Craig hit an RBI single in the sixth inning to break a tie, which was all the Cardinals needed to win.

Carp pitched six solid innings and kept the Rangers in check aside from a Mike Napoli home run in the fifth inning. It was the Cardinals first quality start since Carpenter shut out the Phillies on Friday, October 7th. It was a low scoring game, but not quite a pitcher's duel as C.J. Wilson allowed four hits and six walks over 5.2 innings pitched. Not quite the performance you would expect from an ace starting pitcher on the verge of free agency.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 169 SO)

Garcia was upset when he was pulled early in his last start, so I hope he avoids pitching himself into a corner tonight. Game two airs tonight on FOX at 7:05 PM CT. A win tonight would ensure another happy flight to Texas.

2011 World Series Game One

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Texas Rangers tonight at Busch Stadium for game one of the World Series. Tune in and watch it on FOX at 7:05 PM CT.

Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 191 SO)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 SO)

Don't let Carp's record mislead you. He has performed quite well this year for the Cards, better than any one else on their pitching staff, and if anyone should beat them, it's him. Yesterday's post spoke of Paul Maholm and his lack of run support, which was also true for Carpenter. He had the 25th worst run support out of all starting pitchers in baseball with 150 innings pitched or more, which is a depressing fact considering he had the National League's best offense behind him in the Cardinals. They averaged 4.70 runs per game over the year, but only 3.91 with him on the mound. His BABIP rose to .312, which would account for some bad luck on defense as well.

I like seeing home runs as much as the next baseball fan, but I really hope there will be more stellar pitching in this series. The Cards certainly appear outmatched, but they should have a chance if they can tame the Rangers offense and keep anything Nelson Cruz hits inside of the ballpark. I predicted the Cardinals will win in six games on my previous blog post.

Rather than risk saying anything else that has already been said or repeat that which I read from other blogs, I want to share with you several of the best blog posts I have read over the last few days. I highly recommend them and hope you subscribe.

Beyond the Box Score

2011 World Series Preview: Rangers vs. Cardinals

A Graphic Look at World Series Droughts

C70 at the Bat

Here. We. Go.

Kevin Dame @ SBN

Who Has the Edge in the World Series

Viva El Birdos

Will the Real Tony La Russa Please Stand Up

Irony

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing the Texas Rangers in the World Series on Wednesday with home field advantage. The announcers for last night's NLCS game made a few interesting points regarding how the Cardinals got where they are today.

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Atlanta Braves twice in September and ended the season with a series record of 12-6. If the Phillies would have opted to lose the final game of the regular season against the Braves, then it would have forced a one game playoff for the National League Wild Card. The Phillies could have faced the Brewers in the NLDS with whom they had a 4-3 record in the regular season, which would have been slightly favorable compared to their record against the Cards, 5-9. Knowing this, losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS was avoidable.

Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in this year's All-Star game in Arizona and won the All-Star game MVP award. His home run provided the National League with home field advantage at the World Series. Funny how he inevitably helped the Cardinals, the team the Brewers were trying to beat in the NLCS, and gave them home field advantage.

My friend also suggested I should point out how long I waited for my childhood hometown team to make a run for the playoffs. I will continue waiting for the Pittsburgh Pirates to at least cross the .500 hump before I hope for a postseason run. Then I move to St. Louis and the Cards make it to the World Series during my first year with my new hometown team.

Oh, the irony.

Rangers and Redbirds

The Texas Rangers defeated the Detroit Tigers on Saturday to win the ALCS 4-2.

One day later the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NLCS 4-2.

This Wordle image was created using the all the players on each Championship team's roster with a WAR of 0.5 or higher, then weighted as such.

World Series, St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers (Wordle)

The Cards are my new home team and made a fantastic turnaround from 10 games behind in the Wild Card race in late August to where they are today: National League Champions. TLR may get criticized a lot, but you can't argue with results, especially with all the injuries they had to endure. I will be cheering for them on the outside.

The Rangers ball club appears to be built better with the best team batting average in the Majors (.283), second best slugging percentage (.460), and second most home runs (210). They can hit, run, and have great depth in the bullpen. Ron Washington is a great manager who is both intelligent and very entertaining to watch. This will be the Rangers' second consecutive appearance in the World Series, as well as their second appearance overall, and is among the six Major League organizations who have never won a World Series crown. To top it all off, Nolan Ryan was my childhood idol.

Will the Cardinals win their 11th World Series or will the Rangers win their first?

I'll be honest. I really don't mind who wins the World Series.

Happy Flight

The St. Louis Cardinals just defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 12-6 and won the NLCS 4-2. There were six homers hit in the first three innings, but the ball stayed inside the park from that point onward. That ties the record for most homers in a game, which the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers also tied yesterday.

David Freese received the award for the National League Championship Most Valuable Player. He was great in the regular season and outstanding in the postseason. A lot of credit has to go to the relief pitchers in the Cardinals bullpen since the starting pitching has been so poor as of late.

David Freese, NLCS MVP from ESPN.com

Congratulations to the Cards. Good luck in the World Series against the Rangers.

Have a happy flight home.

Who Will Face the Rangers?

The Texas Rangers embarrassed the Detroit Tigers in game six of the ALCS at the score of 15-5. They will move on to the World Series for the second consecutive year. There were a total of six home runs launched over the course of the game. The Tigers took the lead early, but the Rangers blew them away with a nine run third inning.

Nelson Cruz received the award for the American League Championship Most Valuable Player, and deservedly so. He hit six homers in this ALCS, which is the record for the most in any single postseason. Cruz is the first player to hit six or more home runs in a single postseason in two different years, and he still has the World Series ahead of him.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Who will face the Rangers in the World Series? We may find out tonight. Beyond the Box Score favors the Cardinals.

Current Likelihood of Postseason Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park tonight at 7:05 PM ET. The Cards lead the NLCS 3-2 and hope to eliminate the Brewers tonight in game six.

Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 148 SO)
vs.
Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 158 SO)

It's a rematch from game two where the Cards had won 12-3. I know I have been critical of the Cardinals' managing decisions regarding their pitching lately, but apparently Brewers fans are upset Marcum is starting tonight.

Game two may have been a fluke, according to Kevin Dame's latest visual he calls Paintomatic.

Brewers Cardinals Game 6 Starters by Kevin Dame

Tigers Force Game 6

Thursday's night game was a do-or-die situation for the Detroit Tigers. They delivered with a 7-5 victory over Texas, which forces a game six in Arlington on Saturday. Although the Rangers still lead the series 3-2, so the Tigers are still on the brink of elimination.

Justin Verlander allowed four earned runs, eight hits, and three walks over 7+ innings. How do you win when the game is on the line and your pitching is so unusually dismal? (This would be the perfect opportunity to say a line from Day[9]TV, but I will refrain to keep this blog professional. If you understand, then you are awesome.)

Just score more runs than the other team. Brilliant!

Fangraphs

The Rangers allowed four home runs, C.J. Wilson was responsible for three of them. Alex Avila and Ryan Raburn each launched solo home runs, while Delmon Young hit two bombs in the 4th and 6th innings.

To Verlander's credit, his numbers do not give him all the credit he may deserve. He tossed a career-high 133 pitches, 94 of them for strikes. Everything was going quite well. His final pitch actually reached 100 mph on the stadium radar gun, which is uncharacteristically fast for a starting pitcher especially so late into the game. But Nelson Cruz ejected it from the park hitting a two-run home run, his fifth this postseason.

Cruz seems to be vying for his own rendition of Reggie Jackson, Mr. October. The media may give it to him if he keeps this up.

2006 World Series Rematch Unlikely

The gentlemen at Beyond the Box Score have developed a postseason simulator, which deems a rematch between the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals only a 5.3% possibility. The Texas Rangers are the large favorite to win the World Series, as per their research.

Beyond the Box Score

I didn't live in St. Louis in 2006, nor did I have any real connection to the Cardinals at the time besides "that other team in the NL Central who beats the Pirates like everyone else." If I remember correctly, it was this World Series match up that lured me back to becoming a hardcore baseball fan. I was amazed to see the Detroit Tigers contending for their chance to win it all after losing a franchise record 119 games only three years prior.

Jim Leyland has a tendency to make heroes out of young, scrappy players. Just look at the 1990-92 Pirates, '97 Marlins, 2006 and '11 Tigers. Each team was a winner, in their own respect. I find it hard to believe he has only one World Series title and two Pennants on his managerial resume.

The Tigers accumulated a 12 game winning streak in September against several of their AL Central rivals, which distanced them from their challengers, ensured them a division title, and earned them a playoff spot. They were supported throughout the season by the extraordinary Justin Verlander, who is a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, and Miguel Cabrera, who delivered another MVP caliber season.

Both were stellar in the regular season, but their postseason performances have been average at best. Verlander was part of the Tigers organization in 2006 and has only recorded one quality start in his postseason career. Cabrera's batting average is down and his strikeout rate is up, but the Rangers and Yankees have opted to award him first base more often than not.

2011 Regular Season

Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 250 SO)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 SO)

Wilson quietly put up very respectable numbers behind all the hype surrounding Verlander in the American League. He also has three quality starts in his postseason career, though they all came last year. Otherwise, he looks quite similar to Verlander.

Postseason Stats

Justin Verlander (2-3, 5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10.4 SO/9)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (1-3, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.7 SO/9)

Will either starting pitcher produce a quality start for their team?

Will the bullpen get to work early again?

Game 5 starts in Detroit at 4:19 ET. The Texas Rangers lead the series 3-1, so this is a do-or-die situation for the Tigers.

(Sidenote: Could they have chosen a stranger starting game time?)