Baseball Euphoria

So this is what it feels like to be a winner. I'll be honest, it feels amazing.

Cards celebrate in the locker room after winning World Series, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

They need to replace the sign along interstate 70 when you cross the bridge into Missouri. It should read "Welcome to St. Louis, Home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Baseball Euphoria."

If you had the privilege to experience everything this season like I did, then you would have suffered from the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training, endured frustrating blown saves by Ryan Franklin, questioned the authenticity of Albert Pujols's poor start, cherished the production from veteran Lance Berkman, were saddened by every loss earned by Chris Carpenter, coped with the rise and fall from Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan, were grateful Jaime Garcia did not have a "sophomore slump," held your breath when Albert was injured in June, exhaled a sigh of relief when he returned in July, wondered why they were battling with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the division, withstood the revolving door of several closers in the bullpen, were skeptical when Colby Rasmus was traded, distressed over the injury-prone seasons of Matt Holliday and David Freese, thoroughly enjoyed when Albert started playing like Albert again, watched with disbelief as the Milwaukee Brewers surged past them for the division lead, looked forward to next season when the Cards were 10 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card, were hopefully optimistic when the Braves slumped, joyful when the Cards won their final game of the regular season, and elated when the Braves were removed from the picture.

The St. Louis Cardinals entire season had it all.

The Cardinals were underdogs entering every series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers, and Texas Rangers. Different heroes surfaced in almost every series: Jon Jay, Jason Motte, David Freese, Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter in the NLDS; Albert Pujols, Jon Jay, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Yadier Molina, and David Freese in the NLCS; and Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, and David Freese in the World Series.

The 2011 World Series had it all.

St. Louis Cardinals Postseason Progress Reviewed, Photo via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Everyone contributed at some point over the course of the September and into the October postseason, and that is what made this team unique. Baseball drama at its finest.

Congratulations to Tony La Russa and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

Eleven

The St. Louis Cardinals are World Series Champions for the 11th time in their franchise history.

2011 World Series Trophy, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Now, if you excuse me, I'm heading to Dick's Sporting Goods with my girlfriend for our Championship gear!

World Series Probability

I play World Series Superstars and they recently challenged us to predict how each game of the series would play out. A user asked on their forum, "What do you think the odds are that someone will actually pick the entire series correctly game for game?" I attempted to find the answer online, but the majority of the websites I found were either determining how many games the series would last or predicted the betting odds.

I took it upon myself to try to figure this out, but had to consider several items first:
1) It's a best of seven game series.
2) The winner must win four games.
3) There will either be four, five, six, or seven total games played.
4) The series ends when a team wins their fourth game.
5) Consider a team has a 50/50 chance to win a game.

I enjoy statistics, but I was not sure how to solve this scenario with a binomial distribution equation or what have you, so I typed it out by hand. If the following information is accurate and complete, then you have a 1 in 70 (1.429%) chance of selecting the correct outcome.

Feel free to look over my details and let me know if you find any mistakes. My prediction is highlighted in bold red letters. Leave your prediction in the comments.

Four game series (2 outcomes) 4-0

StL wins Tex wins

C-C-C-C R-R-R-R

Five game series (8 outcomes) 4-1

StL wins Tex wins

R-C-C-C-C C-R-R-R-R

C-R-C-C-C R-C-R-R-R

C-C-R-C-C R-R-C-R-R

C-C-C-R-C R-R-R-C-R

Six game series (20 outcomes) 4-2

StL wins Tex wins

R-R-C-C-C-C C-C-R-R-R-R

R-C-R-C-C-C C-R-C-R-R-R

R-C-C-R-C-C C-R-R-C-R-R

R-C-C-C-R-C C-R-R-R-C-R

C-R-R-C-C-C R-C-C-R-R-R

C-R-C-R-C-C R-C-R-C-R-R

C-R-C-C-R-C R-C-R-R-C-R

C-C-R-R-C-C R-R-C-C-R-R

C-C-R-C-R-C R-R-C-R-C-R

C-C-C-R-R-C R-R-R-C-C-R

Seven game series (40 outcomes) 4-3

StL wins Tex wins

R-R-R-C-C-C-C C-C-C-R-R-R-R

R-R-C-R-C-C-C C-C-R-C-R-R-R

R-R-C-C-R-C-C C-C-R-R-C-R-R

R-R-C-C-C-R-C C-C-R-R-R-C-R

R-C-R-R-C-C-C C-R-C-C-R-R-R

R-C-R-C-R-C-C C-R-C-R-C-R-R

R-C-R-C-C-R-C C-R-C-R-R-C-R

R-C-C-R-R-C-C C-R-R-C-C-R-R

R-C-C-R-C-R-C C-R-R-C-R-C-R

R-C-C-C-R-R-C C-R-R-R-C-C-R

C-R-R-R-C-C-C R-C-C-C-R-R-R

C-R-R-C-R-C-C R-C-C-R-C-R-R

C-R-R-C-C-R-C R-C-C-R-R-C-R

C-R-C-R-R-C-C R-C-R-C-C-R-R

C-R-C-R-C-R-C R-C-R-C-R-C-R

C-R-C-C-R-R-C R-C-R-R-C-C-R

C-C-R-R-R-C-C R-R-C-C-C-R-R

C-C-R-R-C-R-C R-R-C-C-R-C-R

C-C-R-C-R-R-C R-R-C-R-C-C-R

C-C-C-R-R-R-C R-R-R-C-C-C-R

Update...
I must admit my shameful inability to count as I originally stated there were 10 possible outcomes in a five game series when there are actually only 8. I corrected the error thanks to UofMWolv25 from Playfish forum. I can now support this claim as well.

Four game series:
One team must win the first four games in a row.
1/2^4 + 1/2^4 = 2/16

Five game series:
One team must win exactly 3 out of the first 4 games, and then win the fifth game.
C(4,3) 1/2^5 + C(4,3) 1/2^5 = 8/32

Six game series:
One team must win exactly 3 out of the first 5 games, and then win the sixth game.
C(5,3) 1/2^6 + C(5,3) 1/2^6 = 20/64

Seven game series:
One team must win exactly 3 out of the first 6 games, and then win the seventh game.
C(6,3) 1/2^7 + C(6,3) 1/2^7 = 40/128

If you add the numerator from each possible series (2, 8, 20, 40), then you get 70.

1 in 70 chance (1.429%)

Irony

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing the Texas Rangers in the World Series on Wednesday with home field advantage. The announcers for last night's NLCS game made a few interesting points regarding how the Cardinals got where they are today.

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Atlanta Braves twice in September and ended the season with a series record of 12-6. If the Phillies would have opted to lose the final game of the regular season against the Braves, then it would have forced a one game playoff for the National League Wild Card. The Phillies could have faced the Brewers in the NLDS with whom they had a 4-3 record in the regular season, which would have been slightly favorable compared to their record against the Cards, 5-9. Knowing this, losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS was avoidable.

Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in this year's All-Star game in Arizona and won the All-Star game MVP award. His home run provided the National League with home field advantage at the World Series. Funny how he inevitably helped the Cardinals, the team the Brewers were trying to beat in the NLCS, and gave them home field advantage.

My friend also suggested I should point out how long I waited for my childhood hometown team to make a run for the playoffs. I will continue waiting for the Pittsburgh Pirates to at least cross the .500 hump before I hope for a postseason run. Then I move to St. Louis and the Cards make it to the World Series during my first year with my new hometown team.

Oh, the irony.

Rangers and Redbirds

The Texas Rangers defeated the Detroit Tigers on Saturday to win the ALCS 4-2.

One day later the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NLCS 4-2.

This Wordle image was created using the all the players on each Championship team's roster with a WAR of 0.5 or higher, then weighted as such.

World Series, St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers (Wordle)

The Cards are my new home team and made a fantastic turnaround from 10 games behind in the Wild Card race in late August to where they are today: National League Champions. TLR may get criticized a lot, but you can't argue with results, especially with all the injuries they had to endure. I will be cheering for them on the outside.

The Rangers ball club appears to be built better with the best team batting average in the Majors (.283), second best slugging percentage (.460), and second most home runs (210). They can hit, run, and have great depth in the bullpen. Ron Washington is a great manager who is both intelligent and very entertaining to watch. This will be the Rangers' second consecutive appearance in the World Series, as well as their second appearance overall, and is among the six Major League organizations who have never won a World Series crown. To top it all off, Nolan Ryan was my childhood idol.

Will the Cardinals win their 11th World Series or will the Rangers win their first?

I'll be honest. I really don't mind who wins the World Series.

Happy Flight

The St. Louis Cardinals just defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 12-6 and won the NLCS 4-2. There were six homers hit in the first three innings, but the ball stayed inside the park from that point onward. That ties the record for most homers in a game, which the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers also tied yesterday.

David Freese received the award for the National League Championship Most Valuable Player. He was great in the regular season and outstanding in the postseason. A lot of credit has to go to the relief pitchers in the Cardinals bullpen since the starting pitching has been so poor as of late.

David Freese, NLCS MVP from ESPN.com

Congratulations to the Cards. Good luck in the World Series against the Rangers.

Have a happy flight home.

Tigers Top Yankees

Tigers win ALDS 3-2 over Yankees.

This was my hack at doing something creative. Hopefully it's appreciated as much as I liked last night's game.

The Detroit Tigers defeated the New York Yankees on Thursday night and I could not be happier. I guess money can buy the division, but it doesn't guarantee you a ring. Anyone who keeps the Yankees out of the World Series is okay in my book. The Tigers will face the Texas Rangers for game one of the ALCS on Saturday in Texas.

What made the game even more glorious was Jose Valverde striking out Alex Rodriguez to end the game. Delicious.

I don't always agree with what they say over at SB Nation, but I keep my subscription with them because of little gems like Visual Box Score. Cute and entertaining.

Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees