Unexpected Underdogs

I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.

National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.

National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.

World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.

Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals were not expected to earn the Wild Card slot and reach the postseason, but they did. They were not expected to beat the Phillies, nor the Brewers, but they did. They are still not expected to win the World Series versus the Rangers. How long will their tear continue and, if it does, how long will it take non-believers to accept them as a threat?

Irony

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing the Texas Rangers in the World Series on Wednesday with home field advantage. The announcers for last night's NLCS game made a few interesting points regarding how the Cardinals got where they are today.

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Atlanta Braves twice in September and ended the season with a series record of 12-6. If the Phillies would have opted to lose the final game of the regular season against the Braves, then it would have forced a one game playoff for the National League Wild Card. The Phillies could have faced the Brewers in the NLDS with whom they had a 4-3 record in the regular season, which would have been slightly favorable compared to their record against the Cards, 5-9. Knowing this, losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS was avoidable.

Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in this year's All-Star game in Arizona and won the All-Star game MVP award. His home run provided the National League with home field advantage at the World Series. Funny how he inevitably helped the Cardinals, the team the Brewers were trying to beat in the NLCS, and gave them home field advantage.

My friend also suggested I should point out how long I waited for my childhood hometown team to make a run for the playoffs. I will continue waiting for the Pittsburgh Pirates to at least cross the .500 hump before I hope for a postseason run. Then I move to St. Louis and the Cards make it to the World Series during my first year with my new hometown team.

Oh, the irony.

Little Guys

Chris Carpenter pitched flawlessly over nine innings against the Houston Astros on September 28th to set the St. Louis Cardinals up to take the National League Wild Card.

He only pitched three innings on October 2nd against the Philadelphia Phillies on short rest, but the Cards still won while employing their entire bullpen.

Tonight, he pitched another gem as he shut out the Phillies to win their NLDS series. The Cards only scored one run against Roy Halladay, but that's all they needed. They move on to face the Brewers in Milwaukee in the NLCS on Sunday, October 9th.

The Tigers overtook the overpriced Yankees yesterday and the Cards beat the Phillies today. Monetarily, that means $105.7 M defeated $202.7 M and $105.4 M beat $173.0 M, respectively.

I love it when the little guys kick the bigger guys in their wallets. Don't you?

Cardinals and Phillies, Game 5 Tonight

Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
vs.
Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

I choose to not overanalyze this matchup. Tune in and watch the game tonight at 7:37 p.m. CST.

Go Cardinals!

Pujols Streak Recap

The regular season is over and the Cardinals beat the Astros 8-0 to finish with a record of 90-72, which earns them the wild card and sends them to playoffs.

This post was originally written to explain how the Cards would face the Atlanta Braves tomorrow in a one game playoff to decide who would take the wild card slot, but the Braves continued their devastating collapse after blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies and eventually lost after 13 innings, 4-3. I wasn't prepared for this, so all I can say is shut up and enjoy it.

Let's talk about Albert Pujols. If you read my post on September 16th, then you may remember my prediction regarding Albert Pujols' streak. How did he do compared to my weighted prediction?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
2011 Total	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	61	58	0.366	0.541	0.906	0.2988
Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.2965
Difference +/-	+9	+1	+4	+1	0	- 2	- 4	- 4	+1	- 0.004	- 0.009	- 0.013	+0.0023

Sigh. So close, but his streak of 100 runs batted in and 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 ends at 10 consecutive seasons. Let's break it down to see what went wrong and what went right.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 16, 2011	4	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.372	0.549	0.921	0.301
Sep 17, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.372	0.546	0.918	0.301
Sep 18, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.371	0.550	0.921	0.300
Sep 19, 2011	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.369	0.548	0.918	0.299
Series Total	17	3	7	1	0	1	3	2	3	0.474	0.647	1.121	0.412
Result per AB	1	0.18	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.12	0.18
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 20, 2011	5	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.373	0.551	0.924	0.304
Sep 21, 2011	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.374	0.552	0.926	0.305
Sep 22, 2011	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.372	0.554	0.927	0.304
Series Total	14	5	7	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.786	1.286	0.500
Result per AB	1	0.36	0.50	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.00
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 23, 2011	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.372	0.554	0.926	0.304
Sep 24, 2011	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.302
Sep 25, 2011	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.369	0.547	0.916	0.300
Series Total	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.182	0.348	0.091
Result per AB	1	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.09
Prediction per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 26, 2011	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.369	0.548	0.916	0.301
Sep 27, 2011	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.367	0.544	0.910	0.300
Sep 28, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.366	0.542	0.908	0.299
Series Total	16	3	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.563	0.250
Result per AB	1	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.13
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Some of the differences from the norm are subtle, others are obvious. Albert performed extremely well versus the Phillies and Mets, average against the Astros, and terrible against the Cubs. He missed my home run prediction by two, which could have nudged his RBI total over 100. He managed to record 19 hits (two more than my previous estimate), but also accumulated nine more at bats.

It is possible Albert may have been overexerting himself to push for the .300 mark, which caused him to become less patient at the plate. I attended the game on the 25th in St. Louis and noticed him swinging at the first pitch on a couple occasions. This could explain the low walk count and more at bats than usual.

Regardless of this almost human-like season, Albert still recorded a season which will still receive votes for the National League MVP. Now let's think about October!