Unexpected Underdogs

I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.

National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.

National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.

World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.

Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals were not expected to earn the Wild Card slot and reach the postseason, but they did. They were not expected to beat the Phillies, nor the Brewers, but they did. They are still not expected to win the World Series versus the Rangers. How long will their tear continue and, if it does, how long will it take non-believers to accept them as a threat?

Irony

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing the Texas Rangers in the World Series on Wednesday with home field advantage. The announcers for last night's NLCS game made a few interesting points regarding how the Cardinals got where they are today.

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Atlanta Braves twice in September and ended the season with a series record of 12-6. If the Phillies would have opted to lose the final game of the regular season against the Braves, then it would have forced a one game playoff for the National League Wild Card. The Phillies could have faced the Brewers in the NLDS with whom they had a 4-3 record in the regular season, which would have been slightly favorable compared to their record against the Cards, 5-9. Knowing this, losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS was avoidable.

Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in this year's All-Star game in Arizona and won the All-Star game MVP award. His home run provided the National League with home field advantage at the World Series. Funny how he inevitably helped the Cardinals, the team the Brewers were trying to beat in the NLCS, and gave them home field advantage.

My friend also suggested I should point out how long I waited for my childhood hometown team to make a run for the playoffs. I will continue waiting for the Pittsburgh Pirates to at least cross the .500 hump before I hope for a postseason run. Then I move to St. Louis and the Cards make it to the World Series during my first year with my new hometown team.

Oh, the irony.

Rangers and Redbirds

The Texas Rangers defeated the Detroit Tigers on Saturday to win the ALCS 4-2.

One day later the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NLCS 4-2.

This Wordle image was created using the all the players on each Championship team's roster with a WAR of 0.5 or higher, then weighted as such.

World Series, St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers (Wordle)

The Cards are my new home team and made a fantastic turnaround from 10 games behind in the Wild Card race in late August to where they are today: National League Champions. TLR may get criticized a lot, but you can't argue with results, especially with all the injuries they had to endure. I will be cheering for them on the outside.

The Rangers ball club appears to be built better with the best team batting average in the Majors (.283), second best slugging percentage (.460), and second most home runs (210). They can hit, run, and have great depth in the bullpen. Ron Washington is a great manager who is both intelligent and very entertaining to watch. This will be the Rangers' second consecutive appearance in the World Series, as well as their second appearance overall, and is among the six Major League organizations who have never won a World Series crown. To top it all off, Nolan Ryan was my childhood idol.

Will the Cardinals win their 11th World Series or will the Rangers win their first?

I'll be honest. I really don't mind who wins the World Series.

Happy Flight

The St. Louis Cardinals just defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 12-6 and won the NLCS 4-2. There were six homers hit in the first three innings, but the ball stayed inside the park from that point onward. That ties the record for most homers in a game, which the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers also tied yesterday.

David Freese received the award for the National League Championship Most Valuable Player. He was great in the regular season and outstanding in the postseason. A lot of credit has to go to the relief pitchers in the Cardinals bullpen since the starting pitching has been so poor as of late.

David Freese, NLCS MVP from ESPN.com

Congratulations to the Cards. Good luck in the World Series against the Rangers.

Have a happy flight home.

Four Run First Inning

How do you silence over 40,000 fans and the entire city of Milwaukee?

David Freese hits a three-run home run.

Cardinals lead game six after the first inning, 4-1. Two homers so far, so I wonder if this will be another slugfest.

Who Will Face the Rangers?

The Texas Rangers embarrassed the Detroit Tigers in game six of the ALCS at the score of 15-5. They will move on to the World Series for the second consecutive year. There were a total of six home runs launched over the course of the game. The Tigers took the lead early, but the Rangers blew them away with a nine run third inning.

Nelson Cruz received the award for the American League Championship Most Valuable Player, and deservedly so. He hit six homers in this ALCS, which is the record for the most in any single postseason. Cruz is the first player to hit six or more home runs in a single postseason in two different years, and he still has the World Series ahead of him.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Who will face the Rangers in the World Series? We may find out tonight. Beyond the Box Score favors the Cardinals.

Current Likelihood of Postseason Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park tonight at 7:05 PM ET. The Cards lead the NLCS 3-2 and hope to eliminate the Brewers tonight in game six.

Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 148 SO)
vs.
Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 158 SO)

It's a rematch from game two where the Cards had won 12-3. I know I have been critical of the Cardinals' managing decisions regarding their pitching lately, but apparently Brewers fans are upset Marcum is starting tonight.

Game two may have been a fluke, according to Kevin Dame's latest visual he calls Paintomatic.

Brewers Cardinals Game 6 Starters by Kevin Dame

Cards Capitalize on Brewers Blunders

Game five between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers should have been close.
It wasn't.

Cardinals score 7.

Brewers score 1, commit 4 errors.

The Brewers pitching staff allowed four earned runs, but their defense was responsible for the other three unearned runs. The team shared the blame across the diamond with four errors, one short of the postseason record of five. The only positions in the infield who didn't contribute to their failures were the first basemen, Prince Fielder, and catcher, Jonathan Lucroy.

Jaime Garcia seemed to be pitching well, but found himself in a small bind in the top of the fifth inning. Tony La Russa continued his latest managerial trend and called for relief from the bullpen early, pulling Garcia from the game after 4.2 innings and recording only 68 total pitches.

I did not personally agree with the decision.

There were men on first and second with two outs in the fifth inning and Garcia had been sharp up to that point. It was a quality start worthy outing, especially when compared to game one.

Game One: 3 BB,1 HBP, 2 HR allowed, 5/6 extra base hits, 62% strike to pitch ratio.
Game Five: 0 BB, 0 HBP, 0 HR allowed, 1/7 extra base hits, 75% strike to pitch ratio.

La Russa seems to be very excitable after Garcia's meltdown in game one, which probably cost the Cardinals the win. Garcia should not have pitched to Fielder in that situation and La Russa received the blame for it. He seems to have taken that criticism to the extreme to try to prevent a repeat performance.

I understand the desire to preserve a lead, but it makes me wonder how this is affecting the starting rotation mentally. What will happen when the bullpen becomes too tired from being overworked?

Game six lands back in Milwaukee on Sunday where the Cardinals lead the NLCS 3-2.

Brewers Bounce Back in Beer Battle

I like alliteration. Now you know a little more about me.

The St. Louis Cardinals were favorites to win the National League Championship series for the first time going into yesterday's game. The Cards started scoring runs early, similar to the previous two games, but their pitching faltered and eventually lost 4-2.

Regardless of tonight's outcome in Busch Stadium, they will travel to Miller Park for game six; hence, the Beer Battle.

Get it?

Right.

Moving along.

If you read yesterday's article regarding my Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde comparison, then you may be wondering who earned what titles. Randy Wolf did very well allowing six hits and only two earned runs via two solo shots over seven innings. Kyle Lohse could not make it out of the fifth inning. He surrendered six hits (four doubles!) and three earned runs.

Mr. Hyde via Zombify in Picnik

Ladies and gentlemen, we have our monster.

I told you these pitchers were consistently inconsistent and they did not disappoint me. Either they're lights out or in the cellar.

Although I would have preferred the red hat on the good professor, Wolf earned the first quality start of this series. The Cards starting rotation has not seen the sixth inning since Chris Carpenter's shutout against the Phillies on Friday, October 7th. If they want to face the victor of the ALCS, then their starters need to start pitching deeper into the game and stop relying so much on their bullpen.

Tonight is game five and the last game hosted by the Cardinals. It is also a rematch from game one between Jaime Garcia and Zack Greinke. Garcia was on track for a respectable game, then fell apart in the fifth inning. He was responsible for six of the Brewers's runs in that 9-6 loss.

The Cardinals need to prevent the Brewers from winning this mini series in St. Louis if they stand any chance at winning the NLCS.

Cards Take the Lead

The St. Louis Cardinals are now the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series after they defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in game three. The Cards now lead the series 2-1 and Beyond the Box Score predicts they have a 65.1% chance to take the NLCS.

Beyond the Box Score

Yovani Gallardo allowed the first five Cardinals batters on base before finally recording an out. The Cards scored four runs before their lineup batted around and the first inning finally ended. Lucky for the Brewers, Chris Carpenter was not sharp either and allowed three earned runs over five innings.

Both teams employed their bullpens past the fifth inning, which led to near-perfect results. The Cardinals called upon four relievers and did not allow a base runner, while the Brewers allowed only one hit and one walk with the use of three relievers.

The Cards essentially won the game after abusing Gallardo in the first inning. Will they keep rolling with their winning ways?

Game 4

Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 111 SO)

vs.

Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 134 SO)

Game four seems like a coin flip. Lohse and Wolf are both fine pitchers, but they are quite inconsistent with Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde streaks. So what will we see tonight? A well crafted performance by a professor or an ugly monster?

Pujols Best Performance in Cardinals Playoff History

Pip over at Fungoes posted a few days ago noting the best performances by Cardinals players in the playoffs and the addition of three players from this year's NLDS series: Ryan Theriot and Albert Pujols in game 3, then David Freese in game 4.

After tonight's game in Milwaukee, I am certain he will likely expand on this thought. The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-3 to tie the NLCS 1-1. Pujols recorded four hits (three doubles and a home run) over five at bats and scored three times while knocking in five.

8.0 Runs Created. Amazing.

It was a tremendous performance, which actually eclipsed his performance on Tuesday (6.0) and breaks the previous record of 7.2 set by Larry Walker in 2004.

See you in St. Louis for game 3 on Wednesday.

Visual Analysis

Most of us understand statistics a little easier when provided a visual example, such as a chart or graph. Kevin Dame, a writer, visual designer, and infographics editor with SB Nation, takes it to creative extremes.


I finally decided to renounce my subscription to SB Nation, but had to stay connected with Mr. Dame's section. I hope you appreciate his visual analysis as much as I do. I have already provided an example of his once this week, but here are two more posted recently that deserves praise:

Comparing Brewers And Cardinals Pitching

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Albert vs. Prince

Subscribe and/or bookmark Kevin Dame.

NLCS: Cardinals vs. Brewers

Kevin Dame has been creatively blogging using Wordle at SB Nation, so I thought I would try it out.

Cardinals/Brewers, NLCS Wordle

Pretty cool, huh?

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at Miller Park. The Cardinals plan to send Jaime Garcia to the mound, while the Brewers intend to use Zack Greinke. Garcia owns a 1.93 ERA with one win and one no-decision after two starts this year against the Brewers. Greinke is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA against the Cardinals in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 201 SO)

Honestly, we can look at pitching lines all day long, but it may not matter because the most noticeable statistical difference lies in their records at home and away.

Milwaukee Brewers: 96-66 (.593)

Home: 57-24 (.704)

Away: 39-42 (.481)

St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (.556)

Home: 45-36 (.556)

Away: 45-36 (.556)

The Brewers performed extremely well at home in Miller Park during the regular season, yet they actually had a losing record while on the road. They were, of course, the only playoff team to do so. Meanwhile the Cardinals were very consistent maintaining identical records while at home and away. These habits seem to continue thus far while both teams competed in their divisional series.

Milwaukee Brewers: 3-2

Home: 3-0

Away: 0-2

St. Louis Cardinals: 3-2

Home: 1-1

Away: 2-1

The Cardinals and Brewers split their record during the season (9-9), but the Cards did manage to record a sweep in Milwaukee. It would be wise for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to provide top-notch performances in this series as this may be the All Star first basemen's last opportunity to increase their upcoming free agency values.

Given all this information, I would have to say the Cards have a small advantage or at least an equal chance to take the NLCS from the Brewers again a la 1982 style.

Little Guys

Chris Carpenter pitched flawlessly over nine innings against the Houston Astros on September 28th to set the St. Louis Cardinals up to take the National League Wild Card.

He only pitched three innings on October 2nd against the Philadelphia Phillies on short rest, but the Cards still won while employing their entire bullpen.

Tonight, he pitched another gem as he shut out the Phillies to win their NLDS series. The Cards only scored one run against Roy Halladay, but that's all they needed. They move on to face the Brewers in Milwaukee in the NLCS on Sunday, October 9th.

The Tigers overtook the overpriced Yankees yesterday and the Cards beat the Phillies today. Monetarily, that means $105.7 M defeated $202.7 M and $105.4 M beat $173.0 M, respectively.

I love it when the little guys kick the bigger guys in their wallets. Don't you?