Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts

Thursday, April 28, 2016

MLB Pipeline 2016 Draft Preview - Top 100 vs Top 50

MLB Pipeline has an extensive preview of the players available for the 2016 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, which will be held on June 9th, 2016. The list was expanded from 50 to 100, which is great, but the order was updated as well. Unfortunately, the update meant the previous list was lost to the ages...

QUICK! TO THE INTERNET!

I found a cached source thanks to the Internet Archive Wayback Machine. Below you can find both lists compared side-by-side along with the difference, but only when it's available. Green is positive change and red is negative.



One of the names I first noticed missing from the original top four was Alec Hanson. It sounds like there are health concerns.

Here is a short list of the biggest movers:

Biggest Risers Biggest Fallers
Joey Wentz NA to 12 Nick Banks 16 to 95 (-79)
Forrest Whitley NA to 13 Bobby Dalbec 15 to 85 (-70)
Alex Kirilloff NA to 18 Alec Hanson 3 to 64 (-61)
Zack Collins NA to 20 Reggie Lawson 37 to 94 (-57)
Braxton Garrett 41 to 14 (+27) Jake Fraley 32 to 86 (-54)
Dakota Hudson 33 to 10 (+23) Kyle Funkhouser 23 to NA
Ian Anderson 28 to 11 (+17) Ian Hamilton 30 to NA

Thursday, March 12, 2015

2015 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings


Updated March 28, 2015 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet


Code Source Twitter Weighted Value Last Update
CBS1 Scott White @CBSScottWhite
1
March 26
CBS2 Al Melchior @almelccbs
1
March 27
ESPN ESPN Fantasy @ESPNFantasy
3
March 27
FAKE The Fake Baseball @thefakebaseball
2
March 27
FAN FanGraphs @fangraphs
1
February 17
FA Fantasy Assembly @fantasyassembly
1
March 22
FBCJ Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks @FBCrackerjacks
1
February 23
FGD Fantasy Gameday @Fantasy_Gameday
3
March 21
FS Fantasy Squads @AskROTObaseball
1
March 23
FOX Fox Sports @FoxSports
3
March 27
MLB Major League Baseball @MLB
2
March 28
MRCS Mr. Cheatsheet @MrCheatsheet
2
March 18
PGS Paul Greco Sports @PaulGreco
1
March 15
RAZZ Razzball @Razzball
2
March 28
RB RotoBanter @RotoBanter
2
March 11
RC RotoChamp @RotoChamp
1
March 28
SI Sports Illustrated @SInow
3
March 27
USA USA Today @usatoday
3
March 27
YHOO Yahoo Sports @YahooSports
3
March 25
ADP1 CBS Sports - ADP @cbsfantasy
5
March 28
ADP2 ESPN - ADP @ESPNFantasy
5
March 28
ADP3 Fantrax - ADP @fantrax
5
March 28
ADP4 NFBC - ADP @thenfbc
5
March 28
ADP5 RTSports - ADP @rtfsnews
5
March 28
ADP6 Yahoo - ADP @YahooSports
5
March 28

Notes
Players with health concerns were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the aforementioned websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

MLB.com : Fantasy Baseball Player Injury Updates & RosterResource.com : MLB Injury Report

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings.

Why weighted values?
Unweighted values are fine if you believe all data is created equal. Frankly, there is so much data compiled here that it is fairly comparable to my weighted averages. The weighted values were determined for each resource with an arbitrary methodology in addition to how many individuals were polled for their overall list and/or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.
  • Individuals: 1
  • Compilations: 2
  • Experts: 3
  • Average draft results: 5

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. The standard deviation represents that range. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced. Zero is ideal, which was the acquired score of Mike Trout.

Here are a few examples and my possible explanations:

Final Thoughts
Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue or injury problems. It may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide provided me with success in 2012 and 2014 (I took a hiatus in 2013), and it's back again for 2015. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along. Good luck in your drafts!

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

2014 Overall Rankings - Final Update

Spring training is over and Opening Day is here. This offseason has been seriously unkind to pitchers' arms. You will find many starting pitchers on the projected disabled list and quite a few uses of the phrase "Tommy John."

The 25-man rosters are set, so we should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2014 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or using the link at the top of the page.

Many of your fantasy baseball teams should be drafted by now, but this should keep you up to date even if your draft is still not completed. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have that draft coming up or have your team and need to make adjustments:

The following players will likely miss the entire 2014 season:

The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:
Reference: MLB's Injury Report
I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Give me a shout or leave a comment if it helped you. The encouragement is great motivation.

Good luck in your leagues this season!

Monday, March 10, 2014

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft #2

Happy #MockDraftMonday!


I guess I was under a rock when ESPN announced today's impromptu fantasy baseball holiday where their experts occasionally hopped into the mock draft lobby with other users to draft alongside them. A few fortunate enough to join a mock league with one of them received pretty nice advice and had some good fun. I arrived late to the party, so I was not drafting against any notable experts.

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

Once again I did not win the draft. In fact, my team is worst than my first mock draft attempt.

I took my own advice and waited on pitching, but I think I probably waited far too long. The majority of my pitchers came in rounds 13-25 aside from Jose Fernandez and Koji Uehara in rounds 5 and 11, respectively. Most of these pitchers in the later rounds of the draft have the potential to be good, but you might bring you might find yourself crossing your fingers too hard. Tim Lincecum, Brandon Beachy, Taijuan Walker, Ian Kennedy, and Josh Johnson all fit this description. Risking your draft on a few guys may result in a worthwhile investment, but what happens if they all tank? Well, there goes your season.

I was much more satisfied with my infield this time and I can thank Miguel Cabrera for helping me start the draft strong. There is some risk in Mark Teixeira, Jhonny Peralta, and Manny Machado given their background, but I feel their draft slots matched well. If Tex fails to perform, then perhaps Justin Morneau in a Rockies uniform will help fill first base instead. This outfield is strong, perhaps even stronger than my previous draft. It all depends upon Jose Bautista's health and the performances from both Hamiltons: Josh and Billy.

I find myself drafting a lot of the same players and that may be because everyone is referencing ESPN's ranking list while I am using my own. I probably should hop into a Yahoo mock draft for comparison's sake.

Once again, you can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

Friday, March 7, 2014

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

Today, I fell victim to boredom and so I thought, "What better time to take my Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings list for a test drive than now?"

I hopped into the ESPN mock draft lobby, joined 12-team snake draft, and this is what happened:

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.
According to ESPN I did not win the draft, and I tend to agree with them. If I compare their projected estimates to my Stat Targets in Roto Leagues, then I notice the scale is very close, which assures me my data is still prevalent even though it is two years old.

My outfield is solid, the core pitching staff is good, but my infielders scare me a lot. Corey Hart and Xander Bogaerts are the biggest question marks considering neither have seen much playing time at the professional level over the past year. I have some concerns with Everth Cabrera as well, but then again everyone who accepted suspensions last season have to something to prove us all.

The backend of my pitching staff doesn't keep me hopeful either. Huston Street is almost always prone to injury, Francisco Liriano was great last season but there's no telling if he will repeat, Neftali Feliz has not pitched in what feels like ages, Ubaldo Jimenez was only good toward the end of last season, and Kyle Lohse... I just don't trust Lohse, especially not with the Brewers who's running with a skeleton crew.

My best value picks were undoubtedly Matt Holliday in round 7 and Curtis Granderson in round 14. I have no idea why everyone seems to be so down on Holliday, but I will gladly capitalize off everyone else's error. The Grandy man is on the decline, he will probably hurt the team batting average, and Citi Field will likely zap a lot of his power; but I feel much better when I steal him as pick number 164 as compared to the consensus of the experts (110, round 10-11).

If I could do this draft over again, then I would have opted to take an infielder or two earlier than round nine. Maybe I could have swapped in Josh Donaldson or Allen Craig in the earlier rounds and wait on pitching until at least round six.

You can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

Monday, February 24, 2014

2014 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings


Updated April 2, 2014 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet


Code Website Name Twitter Weighted Value Last Update
BP Baseball Professor @BaseballProf
1
February 22
CBS1 Scott White @CBSScottWhite
1
March 27
CBS2 Al Melchior @almelccbs
1
March 24
CBS3 Michael Hurcomb @CBSHurc
1
March 30
CHGM ClubhouseGM @ClubhouseGM
1
February 18
ESPN1 ESPN Fantasy Staff @ESPNFantasy
5
March 26
ESPN2 Tristan H. Cockcroft @SultanofStat
3
April 2
FA Fantasy Assembly @TheJimFinch
1
March 17
FBC Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks @FBCrackerjacks
2
February 27
FC Fantasy Cafe @rjwhite1
2
March 23
FGD Fantasy Gameday @Fantasy_Gameday
3
March 11
FS Fantasy Squads @FantasySquads
1
March 28
FP911 Fantasy Pros 911 @MattDFP911
1
March 28
FOX Fox Sports Staff @FoxSports
5
March 25
MLB Major League Baseball @MLB
2
March 31
MrCS Mr. Cheatsheet @MrCheatSheet
1
March 26
MrFF Mr. Fantasy Freak @Awies28
1
December 22
RAZZ Razzball @Razzball
3
March 25
RC RotoChamp @RotoChamp
2
March 31
YHOO Yahoo Sports Staff @YahooSports
5
March 28

This guide provided me with success in 2012, so it's here to return in 2014. My apologies to the one and only user who submitted a request for it last year, but I was preoccupied with my own work. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along.

Players who will not play in 2014 were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera in their top two which is why they have the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft them with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk or the possibility of reaching.
Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide has helped me win several leagues and I hope it helps you win your league, too.

I can't promise any new content beyond this guide, so please don't hold your breath. I don't want to be held liable for any asphyxiations.

Friday, October 12, 2012

BBA Season Awards

It is a requirement as a Baseball Bloggers Alliance member to vote for their seasonal awards in the same fashion as the BBWAA. However, it is also a requirement to consistently post new content without any prolonged gaps longer than one month, which is why I am certainly surprised I received the reminder to submit my ballot this week.

Analysis around the Horn is a part of the General Chapter, as such I have the opportunity to vote for everyone without discrimination to one league or another. Although my eligibility is questionable, I submit my ballot regardless:

Connie Mack Award (Best Manager)
  1. Davey Johnson (Washington Nationals)
  2. Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
  3. Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)
Willie Mays Award (Best Rookie)
  1. Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
  2. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)
  3. Wade Miley (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Goose Gossage Award (Best Reliever)
  1. Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta Braves)
  2. Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati Reds)
  3. Fernando Rodney (Tampa Bay Rays)
Walter Johnson Award (Best Pitcher)
  1. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
  2. Gio Gonzalez (Washington Nationals)
  3. R.A. Dickey (New York Mets)
  4. Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants)
  5. Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)
Stan Musial Award (Best Player)
  1. Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
  2. Ryan Braun (Milwaukee Brewers)
  3. Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates)
  4. Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers)
  5. Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants)
  6. Adrian Beltre (Texas Rangers)
  7. Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
  8. Yadier Molina (St. Louis Cardinals)
  9. David Wright (New York Mets)
  10. Ben Zobrist (Tampa Bay Rays)

I still have plenty of ideas for new content and could talk about the postseason, which is what caused me to hit the ground running last year, but I have quite a few obstacles and other things on my mind while I continue my job search.

Perhaps this will be motivation for me to continue writing. It could help distract me from an otherwise depressing atmosphere and maybe someone will discover my talents through my blog. Who knows. Crazier things have happened and things will begin to look up eventually.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Play Two Out Rally

Today I wanted to share one of my favorite baseball games: Two Out Rally.

My preemptive apologies as most of these details were taken directly from their website. Keep in mind this isn't an interactive game like MLB 12 The Show or MLB 2K12. It's actually a simulator with an RPG twist. Hopefully the following wall of text does not deter anyone from trying it.


2 Out Rally is a multi-player online role-playing game MMORPG dealing with the on-field action, off-field drama, and general excitement of the game of baseball. Registration is simple, free, and required in order to play 2 Out Rally. By registering, you create a "scout" (your username) who will recruit players, run teams, and organize leagues.

Influence
Influence is the currency of your scout and gives him the ability to change events of the world in all sorts of ways, either through Gamechangers, finding new players, purchasing boosts for his players in either experience or cash, or starting new teams. Influence can be acquired in a number of ways:
  1. Completing hidden in-game accomplishments either during a game, over the course of a season, or for the length of a career.
  2. Winning special tournaments or participating in community events throughout the year.
  3. Providing articles or content to build 2 Out Rally's story.
  4. Serving as a Tester, Administrator, or Forum Moderator for 2 Out Rally.
  5. Purchased from our store or other participating vendors.

Barry Brawn is a
PED monster!
Player Creation
When you start your scout's career, you will begin with enough influence to build your first player with a little left over. This will get you involved in the game and playing right away. In this section, we'll go over the basics for the decisions you will have to make and what those will mean for your character.

You'll want to pick from either a pitcher or a position player immediately, as their ability sets are completely different, and each choice you make will affect them differently. The three elements that will comprise your character design are Attributes, Skills, and Biographical elements. Here's what each of these means.

Attributes are the primary ability sets for your player and represent strength in a general area of the game. If you've played an RPG before, you're probably familiar with these, but if not, don't worry; it will make perfect sense. The point value of an attribute is the sum of all points in its Skill tree (see below). When a player has associated a majority of points into one attribute, that attribute is known as the Primary Attribute or Focus.

Skills are four abilities within each attribute. These skills represent pieces of the player's abilities and allow for more specific customization to the player. For example, the Speed skill is a part of the Athleticism attribute. Adding one point to the Speed skill will add a point to the overall Athleticism Attribute.

Biographical elements are those related to your player's physical size, background, and personality type.

As soon as you've selected either a pitcher or position player, there will be 3 attributes referenced with each selection you make, and every decision you make will alter them in some way. There are countless possibilities, so don't be afraid to experiment.

Burlington Blue Devils won
the wild card in the
red division of Tier C
Finding a Team & Playing the Game
After your player is created, they will need a team. Computer controlled teams will send you offers and are fine as a last resort, but you should prefer to play on a human controlled team with more skilled players and team upgrades for the possibility of free player training. Your player earns more experience when your team wins, so this is another advantage to human controlled teams. You can advertise your player using their forum or contact team owners directly using their private message system.

During your first few levels, this will be the only real development option probably available to you - earning valuable game experience. There are a few ways to earn experience in 2 Out Rally:

  1. Playing in Games (a static reward for being on a team that plays games)
  2. Winning, an increased experience bonus for every time your team achieves victory.
  3. Moving up a League Tier, which will vastly increase the amount of experience you gain. Abusing lower levelled competition isn't going to get you to the big leagues.
  4. Rushing Your Player, where your scout expends Influence to get extra training and immediately advance in level.

Every time you earn a set amount of experience, you will advance in level, which will give you 5 more skill points to spend on your development. As you advance in level, you will become eligible to compete in bigger and better leagues, before hopefully taking the stage of the WBL itself. The experience required will increase greatly with each advancing level, so advancing will become more and more difficult as you try to reach the apex of your career.

Training
Once you find a team and start earning your salary, the hard work really begins as you will want to make sure they train every day. If your team has upgrades, then some/all of your upgrades could be free. Training also provides the possibility of receiving a bonus, which varies. Some scouts choose to save their player's salary until they can afford the option with the best experience to cost ratio ($8,000), but you may risk missing out on bonuses.

There are three types of training: fitness, celebrity, and charity. Your player receives one skill point for every level of fitness training completed. Celebrity and charity training requires you to complete 10 levels, but provides you with 13 skill points or a 5% experience boost, respectively. The common consensus is celebrity training is your best option.

Gamecast
2 Out Rally is wrapping up their 13th season. They have shown they are constantly updating and evolving this game for their users. One of the latest updates added Gamecast, which is quite similar to MLB Gameday. It allows you to replay the game and see how it actually happened. Check out the preview here.



So why am I telling you all of this? It's fun!

If you're interested in joining 2 Out Rally, then I encourage you to click the link below and try it out. Using this link will credit me with the referral. Feel free to ask me any questions. Thanks!

Starting a new team in season 14!

http://www.twooutrally.com/referral.php?rid=5088 <-- Click here to start playing!

Monday, April 2, 2012

2012 Overall Rankings - Final Update

Spring training is winding to a close and Opening Day is right around the corner. Granted, the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics have already played two games in Japan.

The 25-man rosters are more-or-less set at this point. We should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2012 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or the link at the top of the page.

I imagine many of you have their fantasy baseball teams drafted by now, but I want to make sure my readers are in the know. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have a draft scheduled:

Many analysts ranked Ryan Braun anticipating he would be forced to serve a 50-game suspension, but it was overturned and some lists were never updated. Removing the outliers shows he should be drafted fourth.

The following players will miss the entire season and were removed to avoid confusion:
  • Victor Martinez has a torn ACL in his left knee.
  • Ryan Madson will require Tommy John surgery on his right elbow to repair a torn ligament.
  • Joakim Soria will have Tommy John surgery due to ulnar collateral ligament damage.
  • Scott Sizemore has a torn left ACL.
  • Joba Chamberlain underwent Tommy John surgery in June to repair issues in his throwing elbow. He also had surgery on his right ankle to repair an open dislocation.
  • John Lackey underwent Tommy John surgery, not that anyone would draft him.


The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:
I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Good luck in your leagues this season!

Monday, March 19, 2012

Join My Fantasy Baseball League

I was recently contacted by my sister's boyfriend who wanted to play in a fantasy baseball league. We hashed out some of the details, then I spoke to my girlfriend's brother who was interested as well. I am already committed to six other teams, but I have not played with anyone I personally knew since Ryan's Baseball League in 1998. I could not pass up the opportunity to play with two of my future brothers-in-law.

That's where you come in.


Dearest Readers,

We are seeking a few passionate, knowledgeable, and respectful individuals to participate in our fantasy baseball league. Here are the details:

  • The league will be hosted on Yahoo and is free to join.
  • This will be a head-to-head league with a standard 5x5 scoring system.
  • A live snake draft will occur on Tuesday, March 27th at 7:00pm CST.

You should be able to view the league using the following link, but will need a password to sign up. If you're interested, then please contact me using Twitter/Facebook/email or simply leave a comment.

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/aath_baseball



Let me take this opportunity to share a new photo I created for the Facebook fan page. I received a notification indicating I would be forced into the timeline interface later this month, so I decided to create a nice cover page and accepted the conversion ahead of time. Let me know if you like the image.


Be sure to like me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter.

Thank you!

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Brain Over Braun

Ryan Braun was declared the National League MVP in 2011 and many analysts declared him the number one draft pick in fantasy baseball leagues until he was accused of using a performance-enhancing drug on December 10, 2011. He faced a 50-game suspension, which would have caused him to miss almost one third of the season and seriously hurt his fantasy value because of it.

Ryan Braun was shocked when he was accused of using PEDs in 2011.

Braun finally won his appeal on February 23, 2012. He stated during a press conference, "I am very pleased and relieved by today's decision. It is the first step in restoring my good name and reputation. We were able to get through this because I am innocent and the truth is on our side."

Many analysts corrected their rankings and projections as soon as this occurred, while some dragged their feet. It has been two weeks since that announcement, yet three of my 14 references still show him as a 31st draft pick or worse which is causing his rank on my 2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings spreadsheet to skew. The Yahoo Draft Average takes every draft into account, including those before the appeal was announced, so this variance is understandable and will correct itself over time. ClubHouseGM and Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks released their draft kits in mid-February before the appeal and still have him ranked 41st and 76th, respectively.

What happens if these outliers are ignored?


Removing these erroneous values updates Braun on this compilation from a 14th overall pick to 4th behind Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Matt Kemp. His standard deviation is reduced from 106th (21.67) to 6th (2.54), while his weighted and unweighted ranks are both improved to 4th.

This is a great example why I decided to calculate and include the standard deviation value for every player. I am not going to omit these three data sets from my compilation even though they may be outdated compared to the others. They may be inaccurate in regards to Braun, but everything else is great.

Just remember it should be an easy decision to take Braun in the top half of the first round.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Stat Targets in Roto Leagues

Michael Marinakis from Fantasy Baseball Cafe and Jeff Furtah from ClubHouseGM both wrote about statistics you should target when you draft your fantasy baseball team in a rotisserie league. They were written in regards to different league formats, however both came to similar conclusions.

You do not need to win every category in your league to win. Your goal is to create a balanced team who can reach 3rd or 4th place in each category. Jeff reinforced this idea using his past experiences, while Michael shared his success from a mock draft using projections. The winners in his 12 team leagues averaged 98 points, which varied from 96 to 101. I can also attest to the accuracy of his data by comparing it to my own. The winners of my previous leagues in the same format averaged 97 points, which varied from 85 to 110. If you strive beyond third place, then you may be wasting your picks or resources.

For example, a team led the saves category in one of my league's last season with 168 while the team behind them only had 120. That effectively means they had one more closer than necessary. You could make the argument that perhaps their goal was to pad their ERA and WHIP categories with relief pitchers, though I can assure you they failed in both categories. Their offense was middle of the road and their pitching was poor aside from saves. If this team in question had not allocated their draft picks poorly by acquiring an overabundance of closers so early in the draft, then perhaps they would have fared better in the league.

Both writers predicted an alleged goal for a winning team in a league of the format they covered. They admit their provided information may not be useful unless you participate in their league type, though Jeff claims he has a solution and offers individual player averages:


"The reason the individual numbers are so important is you can simply take the number of roster spots you have for both hitters and pitchers and multiply that by the averages here to get the totals you need to strive for. Obviously if you are in a deeper league (in terms of teams or roster spots) the averages would be slightly less and if your in a league with less than 12 teams or fewer roster spots they'll be slightly higher.

"Once you have your total stats needed, either using the overall numbers above or by modifying the averages to fit your league, you need to create a simple spreadsheet. As you're drafting your team fill in the projections for each player. As you start adding up the totals you can quickly identify gaps so you're not scrambling near the end of your draft."

The following table compares the average statistics gathered from several of my mock drafts from ESPN and my Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues from the past two seasons. Our supposed statistical goals at third and fourth place are emboldened.


The standard rotisserie league format is quite different when you compare an ESPN mock draft to a Yahoo fantasy league even though they may both use a 12 team format. Yahoo drafts 23 players for 10 hitting positions, 8 pitchers, and 5 bench holders; while ESPN is a little deeper with 25 players drafted for 13 hitting positions, 9 pitchers, and 3 bench holders.


The target data I provided above was calculated simply by using the opposite of Jeff's calculation. The ESPN data was divided by their available hitting and pitching positions (rather than multiplying), likewise with Yahoo, while disregarding the bench.

ESPN's projection system is slightly skewed because it includes your draft picks on the bench whose statistics should not be included in a true league. This explains the variance from Jeff's estimate, otherwise I can agree his data is quite accurate and a great starting point when you prepare before your draft day.

You can find this information and much more when you use the ClubHouseGM 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.
I recommend checking it out.

Friday, February 24, 2012

The Boy and His Baseball Game

I hope to join Full Spectrum Baseball in their fantasy baseball league opportunity and here is a story to outline all of my credentials.

Dear Mr. Fantasy recently wrote an article entitled Fantasy Baseball: An Early Form of Social Media. He recollected his first fantasy baseball league in 1992. Twenty years ago! I thought it would be neat to recollect my fantasy baseball history as well.


The title of this post was inspired by a story written by Day[9]TV, "The Boy And His Game."

If you read my introductory post when this blog was first created in September of 2011 or read my About section, then you know I have been a huge baseball fan since I was very young. I could not play well, so I did the only things available to an nonathletic nerd: I went to games, followed the statistics, and collected baseball cards. When that wasn't enough, I decided to take it a step further and created my own fantasy baseball league. Of course I never called it fantasy baseball because I did not yet realize it existed.

This began with a simple game I received when I was only ten years old. It involved placing baseball cards into their corresponding positions on a mat shaped like a baseball field, then you would spin a wheel to determine the fate of the batter (single, double, strikeout, etc). This enhanced my craving for more baseball cards and held my interest for a while until I yearned for more.

I decided to expand upon this idea sometime after my parents purchased our family's first computer, an Apple Macintosh Performa LC 500 series. It was an "all-in-one" with the system built into the monitor. The most unique feature was the CD-ROM drive that popped out like a cassette. I eventually got the hang of how to use a computer and wanted to use it for everything.

All of the data I created and recorded before the computer has since been lost because everything at the time was done by hand. A new era began in 1996 when I was a mere twelve years old. Of course I cannot recollect everything from that time period as it was half a lifetime ago, but I can infer everything I found stored in my 15 year old binder.

"Ryan's Baseball League" was not your typical fantasy baseball league. It began simply as a transposition of one team's record into another fictional team I created. The leagues were laid out identically to the MLB at the time and teams were matched up by randomly assigning them from out of a hat (i.e. Phoenix Falcons = Houston Astros, Denver Avalance = California Angels, etc). I gathered the data from our local newspaper since we did not have the internet quite yet and calculated the standings. Keep in mind, I was only twelve years old.

I asked some of my friends to become managers in my league in 1997. Eight people agreed to join and I decided to take the league a step further by drafting the players to the teams as well. I do not recall how the players were drafted, though I am certain some favoritism was involved for teams with human managers. I determined both league's MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and wrote a story about their playoff race.

The most notable addition to this season was the addition of two new teams to bring the team total to 30 and balance the leagues at 15 teams each. Why is this special? The Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks were added to the MLB in 1998, so how on earth did I come up with the standings? I wish I could recall how I decided upon the team standings in 1997 because it may explain what happened next.

The league continued into 1998 with the addition of two more managers. I must have stumbled upon MacPaint while I was feeling exceptionally creative because I made logos for all 30 teams. Most of them are pretty lame, then I remember I was fourteen. I have to admit I am quite proud of my logos I created for the Charlotte Spurs, Atlanta Heat, Cleveland Cobras, and San Antonio Suns. My girlfriend liked the Denver Avalanche, Houston Black Hawks, Jacksonville Manta Rays, and Seattle Squids. This was also the year I discovered Comic Sans as you can see from the photos.

The league rolled along without much change from the previous season. The standings were determined and the playoff stories were written. One of the newest additions to the league included statistical leaders to support my awards. A quick glance at Baseball Reference shows I must have gathered the data from the newspaper once again.

The most exciting thing I discovered from this binder was the last photo I included in the album, Stadiums of "Ryan's League." The first thing I asked myself when I rediscovered these pages was "Did I to figure out park factors?" I was a smart kid, but I don't believe I can credit myself for that.

Unfortunately that is where the binder ends and I can only assume why because of a combination of several reasons: 1) My friends no longer cared for baseball as the Pirates were constantly losing, 2) I was in middle school and had trouble finding the time, 3) Girls became attractive once they lost their cooties, and 4) I found fantasy baseball online.

As you can see, I am a fantasy baseball veteran and intend to manage at least five teams this season. I have not placed higher than fourth since returning in 2010, but plan to change that this year. Although I experienced I hiatus from the sport during the mid-2000s, I am following the game more closely than ever. Why else would I have a blog about baseball?

If there is prevailing interest in my childhood baseball league binder, then I may properly scan all the pages from my binder to include in the album but keep in mind it's extensive. Leave a comment or contact me via Twitter/Facebook/email if you're interested!

Friday, February 17, 2012

Yahoo Top 400 Rankings

Did anyone else realize it is unusually difficult to access the Yahoo fantasy baseball player rankings?

Yahoo's baseball experts published their top 100 recently, but that is a far cry from what is needed to prepare for your draft. Not including Yahoo on my list is ridiculous as they are one of the fantasy sports leaders, especially if your teams are drafted here, so I tried to reach out to them for answers:


This was problematic as I am not planning on drafting my first team at least until March. Luckily I have a friend who already has a team and was gracious enough to copy the data into a spreadsheet for me. It took a lot of time from his afternoon and I am very thankful for it.

While he did this for me, I jumped into a mock draft by myself and copied their overall draft rankings to compare them against the experts. All of this data can be found in my updated spreadsheet which is still available via the tab on the top of this page or you can simply click here.

Additionally, I want to provide this data we retrieved to everyone. You can access this spreadsheet using the following link. Some names may be slightly misspelled and it's not as "pretty," but it's legitimate data from Yahoo. Please use it and enjoy it.

Yahoo Top 400 - 2012 Rankings

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Fantasy Foot Race

One for the money...
You may not be keeping a watchful eye on my post that contains my 2012 fantasy baseball overall ranks, but it has been updated several times since it was first re-published on February 2nd. In case you don't have the page bookmarked already, you can access the list using the tab on the top of the page or this link.

Several new contributors were selected in addition to those who were previously mentioned. These new websites include Fantasy Baseball Cafe, Fox Sports, and The Hardball Times.

I would very much like to include Yahoo's list, but it is only available to players who currently have a team or have an official draft scheduled. I do not intend to draft my first team until at least March 1st after Spring Training actually starts. They do have a top 100 available to the general public, but I am avoiding lists shorter than 250 players. If you happen to have this list available to you and would like to share it with me and everyone else by proxy, then please contact me.

Two for the show...
In my travels across the web, I discovered two websites who had the same idea as mine. Feel free to check them out and compare my list to theirs.

Fantasy Pros - Expert Consensus Ranking
Mr. Cheatsheet - 2012 Roto Draft Cheatsheet

Three to get set...
I took my spreadsheet for a test drive in a three mock drafts just to see how it functioned, if it worked at all. Check out the results and let me know what you think:

Mock Draft #1 Mock Draft #2 Mock Draft #3
Draft Position: 3rd
1. Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pit - OF)
3. Cliff Lee (Phi - SP)
4. Ben Zobrist (TB - 2B,OF)
5. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B)
6. Yu Darvish (Tex - SP)
7. Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - SS)
8. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF)
9. Brian Wilson (SF - RP)
10. Jesus Montero (Sea - Util)
11. Chris Young (Ari - OF)
12. Sergio Santos (Tor - RP)
13. Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP)
14. Mike Moustakas (KC - 3B)
15. Adam Lind (Tor - 1B)
16. Derek Holland (Tex - SP)
17. Doug Fister (Det - SP)
18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
19. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP)
20. Chris Capuano (LAD - SP)
21. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
22. David Robertson (NYY - RP)
23. Zack Cozart (Cin - SS)
Draft Position: 10th
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
2. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)
3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF)
4. Carlos Santana (Cle - C,1B)
5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)
6. Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)
7. James Shields (TB - SP)
8. Carl Crawford (Bos - OF)
9. Adam Wainwright (StL - SP)
10. Joel Hanrahan (Pit - RP)
11. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
12. Chris Carpenter (StL - SP)
13. Jason Motte (StL - RP)
14. Doug Fister (Det - SP)
15. Emilio Bonifacio (Mia - 3B,SS,OF)
16. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
17. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP)
18. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B)
19. Roy Oswalt (Phi - SP)
20. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
21. Jonny Venters (Atl - RP)
22. Mike Trout (LAA - OF)
23. Shelby Miller (StL - RP)
Draft Position: 12th
1. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)
2. Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)
3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF)
4. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B)
5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)
6. Jon Lester (Bos - SP)
7. Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
8. Drew Storen (Was - RP)
9. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF)
10. Mat Latos (Cin - SP)
11. Freddie Freeman (Atl - 1B)
12. Jordan Zimmermann (Was - SP)
13. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
14. Erick Aybar (LAA - SS)
15. Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)
16. Jaime GarcĂ­a (StL - SP)
17. John Danks (CWS - SP)
18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
19. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
20. Jose Tabata (Pit - OF)
21. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B)
22. Ricky Nolasco (Mia - SP)
23. Tyler Clippard (Was - RP)


And four to go!
Just a friendly reminder to experiment in these mock drafts while given the opportunity. This season I am considering spending a pick on a non-closer relief pitcher in order to buffer my ERA and WHIP categories. There's no better place to test strategies than mock drafts.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings


Updated April 2, 2012 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.

Code Website Name Twitter Weighted Value Last Update
CBS CBS Fantasy Sports @CBSFantasyBB
1
April 2
CHGM ClubHouse GM @ClubHouseGM
2
February 17
ESPN ESPN Fantasy Staff @ESPNFantasy
1
March 30
FBC Fantasy Baseball Cafe @FBC_GiantsFan14
1
February 24
FBCJ Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks @FBCrackerjacks
3
February 12
FGD Fantasy Gameday @Fantasy_Gameday
5
March 6
FOX FOX Sports @FOXSportsFowler
1
March 7
MB Matthew Berry from ESPN @MatthewBerryTMR
1
March 20
RB Razzball @Razzball
1
February 23
RC Roto Champ @RotoChamp
1
April 1
RS Roto Summit @JesseSakstrup
1
March 26
THC Tristan H. Cockcroft from ESPN @SultanofStat
1
March 27
THT The Hardball Times @THTFantasy
4
April 1
YAVG Yahoo Draft Average @YahooFantasy
1
April 2
YHOO Yahoo Experts @YahooNoise
4
April 2

Players who will not play in 2012 were removed to avoid the possibility of old data misleading anyone.

I will try to make every attempt to update this page frequently to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked Albert Pujols in their top three which is why he has the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft him with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk.
Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision. A great example is Yu Darvish who is a potential ace, but no one can be sure as he has never faced batters in the Major League. He was generally ranked anywhere from 79th to 131st, which means he can be expected to draft somewhere between rounds 7 and 11. FOX was the greatest outlier who ranked him the highest at 253, but don't count on him staying on the board that long.

This wariness allows you the potential to draft someone later as long as everyone else in your draft carries the same mutual uncertainty, but Yu better not count on it.

Sorry, I went there.