Pirates 2015 40-Man Payroll Early Projection

Please be aware these are rough estimates using my judgment based upon information gathered from Pirates Prospects, Cot's Baseball Contracts, and MLB Depth Charts.

Full credit goes to Tim Williams who typically spearheads this project. I intend to provide a link to his website once he releases his much more reliable projection.


Notes:

• All salaries in bold are official.
• All ages are as of the start of the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
• Players in the minor leagues make $40,750 in their first year on the 40-man roster, $81,500 in their second year, and $122,250 in their third year. Any player with major league service time makes at least $81,500, regardless of how many years of service.
• This is my own estimation and not an official projection.

According to Pirates Prospects the current payroll is approximately ~$78 million, so $10 million toward free agency actually seems like a bit of an underestimate. Ideally, the Buccos would pursue Russell Martin in addition to a pitcher before the 2014 July trade deadline and/or another pitcher from 2015 offseason free agency.

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Later (2015)

The Pirates rotation is bad now, however it won’t magically get better next season unless all of our pitchers get lucky. (Good) Luck is not something to rely upon unless you are already a lottery winner or something along those lines.

What happens if the Buccos fail to acquire a more capable arm before the trade deadline? What will they need to do to recover and prepare during the offseason? Wandy Rodriguez is gone and Francisco Liriano will (probably) become a free agent as well as Edinson Volquez. So who’s left?

Problem for the Pirates: who will be in the 2015 rotation Opening Day? Currently just have Cole/Morton. Other internal options lack upside.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

James Santelli wrote a piece last August explaining why he thought the 2015 Pirates could be a 100-win team, although the prediction was made before Jameson Taillon needed Tommy John surgery. Nick Kingham still has a chance to make an appearance later this season, even though I expect the "standard" he’s-still-learning-no-really-we’re-not-just-trying-to-save-money-guys June or September call up. With any luck, we may see Taillon around this time next year as well.

I started out this post stating I did not like luck, not to mention there are quite a few games between Opening Day and June, so who will accompany Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton? If we are left with the status quo, then the Pirates will probably rely upon Jeff Locke, Brandon Cumpton, Stolmy Pimentel, and/or Casey Sadler.

Pimentel is higher risk than Cumpton and Sadler, but also has more upside. He’d be one of my prime candidates for the 2015 OD rotation.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

I typically rely upon Pirates Prospects for this data, but their early look at the Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 payroll was last updated in January of 2012. The values in the table below are my best estimation as I attempted to imitate their work using MLB Depth Charts and Cot's Baseball Contracts, then comparing them to the dated information on Pirates Prospects.



If the Pirates choose to allow all of our potential free agents to leave, then they should have approximately $10 million to spend during the offseason. They very well may beg for Russell Martin to return and I would not criticize them for it. However, we are trying to address their rotation, so let’s see what we can afford if that money was dedicated to a starting pitcher. Sorry James, but I don't intend to suggest Johan Santana this time around.

These spreadsheets were compiled using data I gathered from FanGraphs. The players included in the following spreadsheets are all free agent starting pitchers included on MLB Trade Rumors 2015 Free Agents post.



There are 41 starting pitchers in the free agent pool according to MLBTR, however a few have not appeared yet this season and we can expect several to sign extensions before the season's end. I sorted them using WAR/GS, which is simply wins above replacement divided by their total games started. This should give us a basic understanding of how valuable a pitcher has been during each start.

If we only use this near-sighted information, then we can observe some players are pitching very well, while others are playing at or below replacement level. Contract value is typically determined with greater scope than just a single season, so it would be best to increase our scale to the past three years. Finally, you may wonder why some rows are colored green, orange, or blue. I will touch upon that after this final table:


Green = Workhorse, dependable (>360IP, averaged >120IP per season)
Orange = Sub-par reliability (180-360IP, averaged 60-120IP per season)
Blue = Injury prone, high risk (<180IP, averaged <60IP per season)

Neal Huntington has targeted pitchers as recovery projects over the past few seasons, but it would be ideal to see him select at least one reliable, dependable arm for a change. We saw mild success in the past with A.J. Burnett, Liriano, and even Volquez is playing better than expected. We also saw (eventual) disasters with Kevin Correia, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, and Wandy. I understand the Pirates may not be able to afford the best arms on the market (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto) and other pitchers may expect a big raise (Aaron Harang, Jason Hammel, Ervin Santana) whether or not they truly deserve it.

In order to predict contract values, I borrowed research conducted by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs and Lewie Pollis on Beyond the Box Score (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season and How Much Does a Win Really Cost?). They determined a win is worth somewhere between $5 and $7 million. With this knowledge in hand, I awarded certain win values to pitchers depending upon their previously noted reliability. If a pitcher was deemed dependable, then I allotted him $6 million per win; if sub-par, $5.5; and if high risk, $5.



I would expect the Pirates have a chance to target anyone I pointed out in the table above. If it were me, then I would take my pick between Yovani Gallardo, Dan Haren, or Justin Masterson at $10 million. If they rolled the dice with a little more risk, then I would not be upset if they ended up with Brandon Morrow, Chad Billingsley, Brett Anderson, Chris Capuano, or even Josh Johnson, but only at a price tag of $6 million or less.

Who would you like to see wear black and gold while standing atop our mound?

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Now (2014)

Yesterday I was lurking Twitter while scouring for interesting tidbits of news worth retweeting when I stumbled upon a conversation between two of my favorite Pirates informants: Pat Lackey and Tim Williams. Pat started by referencing an article that was published to Fangraphs on Wednesday ("Gregory Polanco Won’t Fix The Pirates’ Real Problem" by Mike Petriello) and they started to roll from there:

The above conversation was compiled using Conweets

Biggest problem with Pirates pitching this year is Liriano and Cole aren’t pitching like 2013 versions. Much different story if they were.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

We have complained about the Pirates' sluggish slugging when they are actually very close to league average. Poor pitching is the real dilemma, but how and when do they fix this problem? According to Mike, he would see Neal Huntington shock us with a trade to acquire either James Shields or Jeff Samardzija. Pat and Tim did not like the short-sightedness of Shields, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, and agreed upon Smartzilla. They also mentioned David Price as another alternative.

Any of these pitchers would be exciting additions to the Pirates rotation, but will they be buyers at the deadline? Perhaps. Who will be selling? The race is still relatively close, however it is fairly safe to assume the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rays, Astros, Padres, and Cubs could all be potential sellers. Currently, they each own a losing record and their playoff expectancy is below ten percent. (Playoff Odds)

Who could be considered from these preemptive basement sales? If we only pay attention to players without attractive team-friendly contracts who remain under team control for at least one additional season, then the list could include the following:




How many of these aforementioned pitchers will actually appear on the trade block? I would be surprised to see more than half of these names mentioned, but I listed them regardless as they fit the description: A starting pitcher in their arbitration years who is currently or historically capable of pitching better than average.



All the options listed above appear to be better options than Edinson Volquez except Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill. Price or Samardzija are certainly the best options, but there are others to consider as well.

Who would you like to see in the rotation in addition to (or to substitute) any of our current Pirates starting pitchers? Who would you avoid?

Roles Reversed

What's going on? Did the author of this blog die? No, I'm here.

Sorry about that, but a job search is a full-time job for an unemployed gentleman like myself.

Less than two months ago I was writing about the St. Louis Cardinals' offensive dominance and the Pittsburgh Pirates' inability to score runs. This is still generally true. The Cards have the highest run differential in the National League while the Pirates have the lowest runs scored among all teams in the Major Leagues. Be that as it may, you wouldn't realize it from the divisional standings.

The Buccos are currently one game over .500 (!) with a record of 28-27, three games behind the first place Cincinnati Reds. Pythagorean expectation shows the Pirates have been incredibly lucky and/or very efficient. James McDonald has been lights out, which is why you may be hearing his name in the same conversation with other guys like Cole Hamels, and not the typical conversation we Pirates fans are accustomed to hearing such as "J Mac was defeated by Hamels and the Phillies." A.J. Burnett has been pretty stellar as well.

Meanwhile the Cards have slid out of first place and are now tied with the Pirates thanks to to an injury induced slump. Chris Carpenter, Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, Skip Schumaker, Matt Carpenter, Kyle McClellan, and Scott Linebrink are all on the disabled list. They only need two more injuries to field a second lineup of crippled Cardinals.

I know this is not much analysis, but I still think it's rather shocking. I promise to have some more ideas coming soon for my reader(s)!

Highs and Lows

David Freese goes yard.

The St. Louis Cardinals are off to a great start this season. They are currently 9-3 with a three game lead in the NL Central division. Their offense has been tremendous as they have scored 70 runs over those 12 games, which is currently the best in all of baseball. The majority of their pitching has fared equally well, though Adam Wainwright is taking a little longer than hoped to bounce back after missing all of last season. The Cards have allowed 36 runs to their opponents and Wainwright is responsible for 11 of them, almost one third of them.

On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates have only managed to begin the season with a record of 5-7 and is four games behind the Cardinals. Their pitching is keeping the team alive, while the offense already seems dead. They have only scored 26 runs thus far this season, which puts them in last place by a sizable margin of seven runs. Surprisingly, they do not have the worst record in baseball due to their pitching and defense only allowing 35 runs, which is the fourth best in baseball and one run better than the Cards.

It seems like both teams picked up where they left off last season. Doesn't it?

The Cards offense is currently dominating the majors in many offensive categories including batting average (.301), on base percentage (.367), runs (70), RBI (70), and WAR (5.9). They are also a very close second in slugging percentage (.513). The Buccos are last in nearly every category including hits (80), batting average (.205), on base percentage (.252), slugging percentage (.287), runs (26), RBI (23), and WAR (-0.3). They are second to last in homeruns with six, one more than the lowly Chicago Cubs.

Andrew McCutchen game winner.

The current major league batting average is .248 and the Pirates only have five position players who have an average above that, six if you include Kevin Correia. The Cardinals have nine above average positions players, 11 if you include Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia. If you look at the other side of the line, the Pirates have five regular starters who are slumping while the Cards only have three.

That may sound almost comparable, but let me paint a picture for you. Pedro Alvarez and Rod Barajas both have two hits thus far this season (oddly enough, all four are extra base hits), which is the same as the Card's Lynn and Garcia. Alvarez is currently leading the majors with an atrocious 46.4% strikeout rate. That's worse than our annual leaders in whiffs: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

What does all this mean? The Cardinals are doing well right now and will be even better once Wainwright returns to form. Lance Berkman was hampered by a calf injury and will finally hit the disabled list, but the young guys on the bench have stepped up to fill his big shoes.

Generally speaking, the Pirates need to play better. They have been doing well with run prevention, but they really need to work on run creation. Alvarez and Barajas are not the only ones who need to wake up. Neil Walker, Clint Barmes, and Jose Tabata have all been dragging their feet as well.

The two teams start a three game series tomorrow in Pittsburgh, so we shall see how this story unfolds.

Fri, April 20 at 7:05pm: Charlie Morton vs. Lance Lynn
Sat, April 21 at 7:05pm: Kevin Correia vs. Jake Westbrook
Sun, April 22 at 1:35pm: Erik Bedard vs. Kyle Lohse

Pirates 2012 Season Preview

This article was part of a Baseball Bloggers Alliance series coordinated four months ago by Mr. Bill Ivie. I volunteered to grade the Bucco's 2011 season as well as discuss the outlook on their offseason. The previous articles were originally published on Baseball Digest, however the website closed and this new article was supposed to be posted on his new blog, Full Spectrum Baseball.

Unfortunately, Mr. Ivie informed me today this will not occur:

"With the closing of Baseball Digest, many writers elected not to carry on with this project. Due to this fact, I am left with a fraction of the submissions we need and no prospects of writers for some of the remaining teams.

"While I appreciate your work on these pieces, I will not be able to publish them this season.

"Feel free to run these on your own sites or whatever you see fit. I may be in touch with a few of you to see if we can use your pieces in another capacity. For the most part, however, I will not have a home for these.

"Thank you for understanding..."

Sadder still, this also means my previous two articles vanished from the internet.I'm disappointed, but I can pick myself up, figure this out, and make the best of the situation. After all, I'm a Pirates fan!

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Last Season
The Pittsburgh Pirates saw a glimmer of hope in 2011, but injuries and fatigue after the All Star break ensured their downfall to finish fourth in the standings ahead of the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros with a 72-90 record. It was an improvement over 2010 where they finished 57-105, but it still clinched their 19th consecutive losing season.

The team lost quite a few recognizable names from their roster during the offseason including Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm, Ronny Cedeno, Ross Ohlendorf, and Chris Snyder as well as their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. That is a long list to recover, but I believe they managed their resources to the best of their ability, although they may still have the lowest payroll in the MLB thanks in part to Miami’s spending splurge.

The Rotation
Young pitching is what carried the team along last season until their arms tired out. They have quite a few candidates to start this season. Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, and Kevin Correia are all returning; Erik Bedard signed via free agency for $4.5M, which is a potential steal; and A.J. Burnett was acquired via trade from the New York Yankees and is only responsible for $13M of his $33M salary through 2013.

The Bedard and Burnett acquisitions were the most exciting among our offseason. Bedard has been injury prone and Burnett allows a lot of homers, but I am happy to have some strikeout potential in this rotation beyond McDonald. Both average almost one strikeout per inning pitched and will play pivotal roles.

Morton and Burnett are recovering from surgery and may begin the season on the disabled list, which means their rotation currently consists of Bedard, McDonald, Karstens, Correia, and Lincoln. Once everyone is healthy, I expect Correia and Lincoln will be demoted to the bullpen and/or minors to yield this rotation: Burnett, Bedard, Morton, McDonald, Karstens.

Starting Pitching in the Organization
Brad Lincoln, Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, and Rudy Owens are ready to go in the minors. Expect to see Lincoln and McPherson as soon as April due to injuries, while Locke and Owens are both lefties who can provide diversity in a right-handed heavy pitching system. Their prized arms, however, are first round picks Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon who may be ready as early as late 2013.

The Bullpen
Joel Hanrahan was elected the closer last season and did not make them regret their decision. Jose Veras, Chris Resop, and Jason Grilli dazzled, while Evan Meek spent most of the season struggling and on the disabled list. I would expect a bounce back season from Meek, although he may not get the opportunity after a rough spring.

Veras was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers over the offseason, but you should recognize many of the other names in the bullpen this season. Hanrahan will stick around to close with Meek, Grilli, and Resop setting him up. Daniel Moskos and Tony Watson will probably stick around as the only viable lefty specialists unless they struggle. Daniel McCutchen rounds out the back of the bullpen, but Jared Hughes, Chris Leroux, Duke Welker, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson are ready to move in.

The Backstop
Our front office sent Doumit and Snyder packing after the season ended and hope to replace him with the acquisition of Rod Barajas. He offers excellent defense behind the plate with some home run power, but his health may be of concern as he has only exceeded 100 games in a season four times in his 13 year career. Michael McKenry is currently the most likely candidate to back him up.

The Corners
The Pirates front office wanted to find someone to play first base, but they didn’t sign anyone we expected. Garrett Jones will platoon with Casey McGehee. McGehee can play either first or third, which makes him even more valuable if Pedro Alvarez performs dismally again this season. All three players have the potential to hit 20 home runs or more.

Up the Middle
Neil Walker will start at second base and is a contract extension candidate. His new double play partner at shortstop will be Clint Barmes who is a defensive upgrade over Cedeno. We should not expect much more than 20 homers between the two of them. Walker will hit for average, while Barmes will probably bat on the bottom of the lineup.

The Outfield
Alex Presley, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata will cover the outfield for next season barring any injuries. Presley was impressive while appearing in short service this past season, while Tabata spent most of the season dealing with injuries. McCutchen continued to deliver as the face of the franchise with impressive speed and an increase of power. All three players have the potential to steal 20 bases or more.

Tabata signed a contract late last season to secure him through 2019, while McCutchen just signed a $51.5M contract extension on Sunday, March 4th. The extension secures him potentially through 2018.

The Bench
There is not much to write home about regarding the Pirates bench. McKenry will back up Barajas, McGehee will back up the corner infield, Josh Harrison can play second or third base, Yamaico Navarro can back up the middle infield or outfield, and Nate McLouth is back in black and gold to provide more depth in the outfield.

The Minors
I predicted Matt Hague would make his debut in my last article I wrote in December. I stick by that prediction considering our first base situation. Starling Marte has the most recognizable talent and would help an ailing Pirates offense, but there is a logjam in the outfield. Both have been excellent in spring training this year. McPherson, Locke, and Owens could make their debuts as well if injuries plague the rotation again this season.

Created using Tagxedo

Team MVP: Andrew McCutchen
Team Ace: Erik Bedard
Team's 2012 record: 76 - 86
Team's 2012 finish in division: 4th in NL Central

McCutchen should outperform the rest of the team once again and could continue to improve to provide his best season. He is already a 20/20 hitter, but could he do better? Bedard has not completed a full season without injury since 2007, but he is healthy now and has the potential to be a staff ace.

Pittsburgh made some promising moves during this offseason and reportedly pursued several other big name players. This is definitely a step in the right direction and we should see some improvement over our 2011 season, especially if everyone stays healthy. I would love for the Buccos end the curse of Barry Bonds. It is possible we could earn a few more wins with the exodus of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the division, but I do not believe enough progress was made to the roster to crack the .500 threshold this season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

My Reply: What Else Should the Pirates Do?

Battling Bucs just posted a new article this evening entitled What Else Should the Pirates Do? I wanted to respond to them with my own thoughts, but it got lengthy and out of hand and decided to simply write about it myself.

I highly suggest reading his original post before checking out my response to it.

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I agree the Pirates are essentially the same team as last year. Their free agent losses were offset by those who were acquired thus far, but I think there's still an opportunity to improve. He requests a more "serviceable" backstop option behind Rod Barajas, Michael McKenry, and Jose Morales then suggests Chris Snyder who seems to be the last semi-viable catcher left on the free agent market. His price may be lower than the $6.75 million contract option which was declined, but I'm not sure I can justify providing a backup catcher a multimillion dollar contract. The catcher position has been fairly weak over the course of history, aside from a few notable exceptions, so I feel the money could be better spent elsewhere.

I've looked at a few projected 25-man rosters for the Pittsburgh Pirates and it is still quite depressing even after the acquisitions made this offseason. Andrew McCutchen deserves to bat third, which Battling Bucs' projection displays, but Neil Walker batting cleanup is joke. The team is still missing a bat with power, which was supposedly a priority. Perhaps Pedro Alvarez will snap out of his funk, but I won't bet money on it.

Although there are several healthy options to play first base, he chooses to stick with Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee who will be under team control for the next four and three seasons, respectively. It's an interesting decision, though McGehee had a performance comparably dismal performance last season similar to Alvarez. They both have the potential to hit 20 or more home runs, so it is possible they could eventually land into the #4 and #5 slots of the Pirates lineup behind McCutchen.

Unfortunately, I don't share his optimism and would prefer to acquire a free agent, if only for a season or two. Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are both almost certainly waiting until Prince Fielder signs, then the scramble will begin for first baseman. Lee experienced a small resurgence when he was traded to Pittsburgh last July, though I suppose I can understand why he would prefer not to come back. If either player would swallow their pride to play for the lowly Pirates, then we would have someone who could hit 20 or more home runs and would be a clear choice to bat cleanup.

I'm excited to see what Erik Bedard can do for us and hope he stays healthy for most of the season. Kevin Correia has me worried considering how poorly he did when he pitched at home. The rest of the rotation is still quite young, so maybe last season's experiences will help them grow and develop into better pitchers in 2012. Our rotation is not very threatening no matter how you look at it and understand his reasoning toward Jeff Francis.

Francis would be a conventional, low-risk decision similar to when Correia was acquired last season, but I still would prefer my previous suggestion, Brandon Webb: high-risk with the potential of high reward at little cost. The next exciting option beyond Webb is Roy Oswalt, who supposedly lowered his asking price and just may be Pirates price range. They will never land Lee/Pena and Oswalt, though it is increasingly doubtful they will end up with any of them.

I published my pitching article less than a week ago and four of my top nine options have signed since then, so they're falling fast now with only 32 days left until pitchers/catchers report for Spring Training and 78 days until Opening Day.

How Can You Replace Ross Ohlendorf?

As I asked in the title, how can you replace Ross Ohlendorf? Here is the simplest answer:

Easily.

The former Pittsburgh Pirate was non-tendered on December 9, 2011 before the arbitration deadline and is now a free agent, which adds him to the thinning pool of starting pitchers. This is perfectly fine by me as he has been a AAAA-level pitcher throughout his career, though this past season was especially dismal. Sure, he missed nearly the entire season due to nagging shoulder injuries, but he was no ace beforehand. The injury simply adds another problem to his resume.

These spreadsheets were compiled using data I gathered from FanGraphs. The players included on the following spreadsheet are all free agent starting pitchers included on MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Tracker except Sergio Mitre who did not start any games in 2011.



There are 24 starting pitchers in the free agent pool created by MLBTR. I sorted them using my own metric: WAR/GS, which is simply their wins above replacement divided by their games started. Only Scott Kazmir and Armando Galarraga had a worse WAR/GS than Ohlendorf, Galarraga also had the lowest WAR among the group.

If we only use this near-sighted information, then it shows nearly any of these candidates should be an improvement over Ohlendorf. This very well may be true, though it would be best to increase our scope to the past three years. This next spreadsheet includes every free agent starting pitcher from MLBTR as well as some who have not yet declared retirement.



Broadening our scope increases the pool of free agents from 24 to 36 and Ohlendorf's WAR/GS score increases from -0.07 to a mere +0.02. 26 pitchers rank above him while 9 are below. This is a reasonable starting point, though I should quickly point out Clay Hensley as an outlier. He ranked the highest due to his fine performance as a relief pitcher for the Marlins in 2010.

Based upon Pirates Prospects estimation, the team should have $4 to $13 million left before they reach their aforementioned $50 million payroll threshold, depending upon arbitration agreements. That should be plenty to sign one pitcher for one or two seasons, which should be just long enough until Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon is ready for the big leagues.

It would be great if we managed to sign Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Joel Pineiro, Javier Vazquez or Hiroki Kuroda, but I am sure they would need to be overpaid and would be reluctant to agree upon a short-term contract. Oswalt may have interest in a one year contract, though I seriously doubt any willingness to move to the home of the double decade loser after having a taste of winning on the other side of Pennsylvania.

That leaves 20 pitchers who could still be an upgrade over Ohlendorf. Age should not be a major factor given the likelihood of a short-term deal. My ideal starting pitcher candidate would either have the capability to accumulate strikeouts while also maintaining control or preference toward ground ball outs. He would also have a reasonable price tag, which could be due to recovery from an injury but have the potential upside to outweigh the risk, similarly to Erik Bedard.

These potential candidates fall directly behind Oswalt et al: Jeff Francis, Bartolo Colon, Vicente Padilla, and Carlos Silva. They are all in their early 30s aside from Colon who will be 39. None of them will blow anyone away with strikeout power, but they manage to maintain a healthy K/BB ratio while recording more ground balls. Aaron Cook won't record many strikeouts and may have some difficulty with control, but he has the best GB/FB ratio on the board. (I forgot Cook was recently signed by the Boston Red Sox.) Rich Harden definitely can get the strikeouts, but he allows even more walks, fly balls, and home runs than Ohlendorf.

Most of the other pitchers are quite comparable to Ohlendorf's basement baseline and may be a modestly cheap addition until Charlie Morton recovers from surgery or as an alternative to Brad Lincoln, though the final name on the list would be most intriguing and possibly more exciting than our Bedard acquisition: Brandon Webb.



Webb was a former National League Cy Young award winner for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but has not pitched a full season since 2008. He was placed on the disabled list in April of 2009 due to shoulder bursitis and underwent surgery on his right shoulder. The Texas Rangers took the risk on him last season for only $3 million and began the season still on the disabled list. He attempted a rehab minor league start in late May of 2011, his first game in over two years, but would undergo a second surgery on his right rotator cuff that would keep him from pitching again in 2011.

Jon Heyman from CBS reported recently, "Webb began throwing in late December. Agent, Jonathan Maurer, said arm feels 'strong and loose.'" He will turn 33 toward the beginning of 2012 and may never return to his previous caliber of performance. Considering Webb, someone who has not pitched on the major league level for almost three years, may not be the direction the Pirates will take, but he would have the most potential upside out of all the free agent starting pitchers available and should be quite affordable. Just look at Webb's weighted average on my last chart. He would be an amazing acquisition if he could come close to those numbers.

I say give him a chance. What's your opinion?

Offseason Christmas Wishlist

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house.
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse...

Neal Huntington may be asleep as well. Just take a look at some of Pittsburgh's questionable situations and their answers for them thus far.

Pittsburgh's last major league transaction sent Jose Veras to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for McGehee on December 12th. Pirates Prospects now estimates their 40-man payroll at approximately $46 million, which is at least $4 million less than their originally announced budget. I am satisfied with the way they answered most of their questions, but first base still leaves me wanting more. I would not be against them targeting an additional starting pitcher as well.

   Catcher
x Ryan Doumit contract option declined.
x Chris Snyder contract option declined.
o Rod Barajas signed for $4MM over 1 year.

   First Base
x Derrek Lee becomes a free agent and declines arbitration.
o Garrett Jones offered arbitration.
o Lee, Carlos Pena.

   Third Base
x Pedro Alvarez may have another dismal season.
o Casey McGehee acquired from Milwaukee.

   Shortstop
x Ronny Cedeno contract option declined.
o Clint Barmes signed for $10.5MM over 2 years.

   Starting Pitcher
x Paul Maholm contract option declined.
x Ross Ohlendorf non-tendered and released.
o Erik Bedard signed for $4.5MM over 1 year.
o Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Francis, Rich Harden, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Saunders.

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John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals have my permission to have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

The Cards may have lost Albert Pujols, but signing Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright's return should recover any wins they may have lost without him while maintaining their $110 million payroll. Fantastic.

   First Base
x Pujols becomes a free agent and signs with Los Angeles Angels.
o Lance Berkman shifts from right field to play first base.

   Second Base
x Nick Punto becomes a free agent and signs with Boston Red Sox.
x Ryan Theriot non-tendered and released.
o Skip Schumaker resigned for $3MM over 2 years.
o Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, and Allen Craig are under team control through 2013.

   Shortstop
x Rafael Furcal becomes a free agent.
o Furcal is resigned for $14MM over 2 years.

   Center Field
x Jon Jay is under team control through 2013, but should not play every day.
o Beltran could cover center field on rare occasions to allow Craig playing time in right field.

   Right Field
x Berkman shifts to first base.
x Craig will begin the season on the disabled list.
o Beltran signed for $26MM over 2 years.

   Starting Pitcher
x Edwin Jackson becomes a free agent.
o Wainwright returns from Tommy John surgery.

   Relief Pitcher
x Octavio Dotel becomes a free agent and signs with Detroit Tigers.
o J.C. Romero signed for $750K over 1 year.

Key
Team Losses: x
Questionable: o
Acceptable: o

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What more could I ask for Christmas?

Contract extensions for Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, and Wainwright.

Thanks for listening, Santa.

Pittsburgh Pirates Offseason Outlook

I provided a followup piece to the Pittsburgh Pirates Report Card for Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest. It was actually published on December 1st, so it is lacking the latest information regarding their acquisitions of Erik Bedard, Nick Evans, details on the Rule V draft, etc.

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/12/01/bd-off-season-outlook-pittsburgh-pirates

The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook

I apologize for the delay, but you can believe it's been a crazy week with the winter meetings and all.

Please go check it out if you've not already. Thanks for reading!

Pirates Shop for New Ace

I talked about the Pittsburgh Pirates options for first base on Friday and concluded they should spend anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million for either Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, or Michael Cuddyer. What is left for a new starting pitcher?

In the best case scenario with a $50 million payroll, the Pirates would have at least $4.5 million to use towards a starting pitcher, which may be enough for a decent option considering Chris Capuano just signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers today for two years at $5 million per season. He was my first choice, but I also had Erik Bedard on my wishlist. Battling Bucs and McEffect are in agreeance with me.

I know I did not go into great detail when I last looked at the starting pitcher market, so let's check out who is still available. Here are all their options (viable or not) sorted by SIERA from last season as well as over the past three seasons. I prefer SIERA to FIP because it weighs strikeouts more heavily, which is something I wish the Pirates organization would desire more from their starting pitchers. This allows the pitchers I want them to acquire to shine much brighter because I want there to be no confusion: I don't want Paul Maholm back in Pittsburgh.

Starting Pitcher Targets over One Season

In addition to those mentioned, the Pirates also seem to be interested in Nippon Professional Baseball league pitchers Wei-Ying Chen (age 26) and Tsuyoshi Wada (30). Their advanced statistics are generally unavailable, but Bradley Woodrum on FanGraphs did crunch the numbers to produce their FIP. Wada received a FIP of 2.64 while Chen scored a 3.33. If these values are accurate to MLB standards, then it would rank them among the top 25 starters in 2011 who qualified. Who knows how they will actually perform in America, but the possibility of an elite pitcher for only $5 million per year is exciting.

Starting Pitcher Targets over Three Seasons

Using a filter of simply anyone better than Maholm, I found the 13 best free agent pitchers still available. Eight were superior to him on both lists, two posted marginal numbers than him last season, and three were slightly better over the past three seasons:

Both Lists	Last Season Only	Both Seasons
Erik Bedard	Kevin Millwood	Joe Pineiro
Rich Harden	Jason Marquis	Aaron Harang
Bartolo Colon		Jeff Francis
Javier Vazquez*
Hiroki Kuroda*
Roy Oswalt*
C.J. Wilson*
Edwin Jackson*		* Too Expensive

I do not expect them to be players for Vazquez, Kuroda, Oswalt, Wilson, or Jackson as their asking prices will certainly be much higher than their budget. That leaves eight pitchers I would be happy to see in black and gold next season. Bedard, Harden, Colon, Millwood, Marquis, Pineiro, Harang, and Francis should cost anywhere from $1 to $6 million per season with a contract length of one or two years. These are feasible choices considering comparable pitchers have already signed contracts this offseason for $3 to $6 million. The pitchers from the Japanese market could request $5 million per season. If the Pirates' payroll is set even higher than $50 million, then it may even be possible to sign two pitchers instead of just the one.

This is ideal as they are affordable short-term investments and should pave the way for their prospects developing in the farm system, but what happens if their payroll becomes less than optimistic? Perhaps they overpay a first baseman, which is not unrealistic as players do not flock to Pittsburgh by choice, and they decide not to expand their payroll much beyond their initially proposed $50 million limit. It could effectively reduce their budget for a starting pitcher to zero. If this occurs, they will have two avenues: stick with their unaltered righty-heavy rotation or get creative. Time for a bake sale.

The Buccos would have plenty of depth at first as well as the outfield, so they may be able to release or trade Garrett Jones to save approximately $2.4 million (arbitration estimate). The other financial aid could come from a trade involving Joel Hanrahan. Closers are in high demand and reaching surprisingly high values. It would be crazy to not at least test the waters, especially as it could remove $4 million (arbitration estimate) from their current payroll and provide new prospects via a trade. Making these moves would have the potential to create $6.4 million that could be used toward a new starting pitcher.

Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in yellow, positional/role changes in grey.

Optimal Outcome - $56MM
Lee accepts his arbitration offer at the value of $8.5 million and the two most exciting lefties are added to the starting rotation (Bedard and Chen) for $5.25 million each. The moves would shift Jones to the bench, while Correia would assume a role in the bullpen. This would raise their 2012 payroll to approximately $56 million, which is still true to their initial statement of "over $50 million."

Inferior Outcome - $47MM
Lee declines arbitration, which provides them a sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds. They would divert their attention to another first baseman and eventually offer Pena $12 million. Overpaying him triggers a liquidation process, which ships out Jones and Hanrahan. This creates extra finances to sign an extra starting pitcher, but fans are disappointed it is a righty beyond their prime: Millwood. Evan Meek was the second choice for the closer role last season and would likely become the new closer if Hanrahan left. Fans become upset when their payroll fails to meet the promised estimate at the cost of two fan favorites.

Worst Outcome - $43M
Lee declines arbitration and receive their sandwich pick, but none of the other free agent first basemen acknowledge the Pirates' offers. They are forced to use a platoon consisting of Jones, Matt Hague, and Nick Evans. A below average starting pitcher is overpaid who does not utilize strikeouts and fails to provide the needed diversity in a right-handed heavy rotation. Promises of reformation, change, and increasing payroll are ignored by management, which causes outrage.

Can the Pirates find an average or better starting pitcher? Certainly, although I hope they do not succumb to dumpster diving for Aaron Cook.

Pirates Push for Lee

It has been over two months since the regular season ended and one month since the World Series finished. The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the offseason trying to solve their problems in preparation for next season. Thus far they have filled their formerly empty positions at catcher and shortstop with Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes, respectively.

I previously speculated on an idea of how the Pirates could solve their positional woes with the money they were allotted earlier this month. My vision would have spent $8 million to acquire Kelly Shoppach and Nick Punto. I think Barajas was a fine addition as you should gather from my earlier praises, though acquiring Barmes was most surprising.

I do not intend "surprising" to come across as a bad thing; on the contrary, I am actually quite impressed. He may not have been the best in the entire group, however he was the best we could afford. He does not have incredible power or speed, but his defense is well renowned. What little power in his bat may disappear after leaving Coors Field and Minute Maid Park, nevertheless he should still be an upgrade over our former shortstop, Ronny Cedeno.

These two investments will cost the team $9 million in 2012. If Pirates Prospects' 40-Man Roster and Payroll is accurate, then they should have $37 million tied up on their current roster. Beginning the 2012 season with a payroll of $50 million or more should leave at least $13 million to procure a first baseman with power and a starting pitcher or two.

The Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles before the trading deadline and has expressed great interest in retaining him for next season and offered him arbitration, though we are not so sure the feeling is mutual. If Lee declines the arbitration offer, then I would expect the Pirates to abandon Lee, accept the first round compensation pick, and switch their focus to another player.

Many have been talking about Carlos Pena as an alternative to Lee, but there is also Michael Cuddyer. Among these three options for first base, all share near-identical fielding percentages though Cuddyer actually logged more playing time in right field than first. They all logged a positive UZR/150 this past season, though Lee was the only one to post a positive score over the past three seasons (2.9). Run prevention is nice, but I am certain Pirates fans would care more about run production and power.

First Base Targets over One Season

First Base Targets over Three Seasons

Their 2011 performances were extremely similar, but Lee was on the bottom with an OPS of .771, then Cuddyer at .805, and Pena on top with .819. Pena's score is spoiled by his poor batting average (.225), which was a depressing improvement over his previous season (.196). Lee shoots ahead when you look at their statistics over the last three seasons, but he is aging and is unlikely to improve very much from 2011. Each guy is a threat for 20+ home runs as long as they stay healthy.

Pena and Cuddyer both earned close to $10 million in 2011, while Lee earned $7.25 million. If Lee accepts arbitration or a new contract is conjured, then expect him to receive a raise over his 2011 salary. Pirates Prospects estimates it would be over $8.5 million. That said, it would probably take anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million to convince one of these guys to come to Pittsburgh, which has the potential to become the most expensive one year salary in franchise history over Matt Morris who earned over $10 million in 2008.

I will talk about their starting pitching options in my next article rather than only devote a paragraph or two.

Stay tuned.

Pirates Report Card, etc

I have not posted anything recently, but rest assured I did not stop writing. I simply took a small vacation to visit family and friends in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/11/24/bd-report-card-pittsburgh-pirates

The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card

In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.

Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

If you reference my 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates report card, then you should know they have plenty of room for improvement as they prepare for 2012. Their offense was among the worst in the major leagues with a serious lack of power, while their pitching was only marginally better in comparison. They actually have some money to spend this offseason after a big pick up in attendance this past season and since several players fell off their pay books.

The exact amount they have to spend on free agent signings this offseason will be dependent upon who the Pirates decide to tender in arbitration and how much. If they increase their payroll to $50M, which they previously reported, then they should have approximately $20M of flexibility. Pirates’ general manager, Neil Huntington, reported, "We’re going to non-tender some players that people don’t want us to non-tender. We’re going to tender some players that probably surprise some people." This worries me as this potentially means the team could bring back Ross Ohlendorf for another season who has been adequate at best, and we may lose Garrett Jones who had a fairly productive season while platooning at both first base and right field.

Team options were declined for Paul Maholm ($9.75M), Ryan Doumit ($7.25M), Chris Snyder ($6.75M), and Ronny Cedeno ($3M). The Pirates absorbed $2.2 million to allow them to walk along with their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. The loss of these key players caused the apparent necessity for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, and at least one starting pitcher. The Pirates are lucky to have Neil Walker locked in at second base; Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, et al covering the bullpen; and Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and company protecting the outfield.

There is no chance of Doumit returning as he recently signed with the Minnesota Twins for one year at $3M. The Buccos are not terribly concerned as they locked in Rod Barajas, former catcher of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a one year contract to the tune of $4M with a $3.5M team option for 2013. Veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, is the most recent free agent signing and is now reportedly under contract for two years at the cost of $10.5M. If these reports are accurate, then they filled their gaps at catcher and shortstop with about $10M to spare for other acquisitions.

The team still desires at least one starting pitcher with Charlie Morton probably beginning the season on the disabled list, Maholm gone, and Ohlendorf hopefully in Pittsburgh’s past. Otherwise they will be relying upon an even younger starting rotation than they used in 2011, which ended poorly as they ran out of steam going into August.

Management acquired Lee and Ludwick before the 2011 trade deadline with the hope to add a much needed power threat in their lineup, but they were riddled by injuries like the rest of the roster. Ludwick should not be pursued this offseason as there is already a major logjam in the outfield, but I bet everyone would love to have Lee back next season. He performed poorly while playing in Baltimore, but played with MVP-like caliber during his brief stint with the Pirates.

The outfield is chock-full of young talent with Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen as their trophy centerpiece. But it doesn't stop there. Starling Marte was protected from the Rule 5 draft and will be their regular center fielder for their Indianapolis AAA team to start 2012, but there are also younger options still developing like Robbie Grossman and Josh Bell who are not quite ready for the Big Show. It is almost mind boggling to realize the Pirates actually have depth at a position, so how do you make them all fit?

It is possible they will ask McCutchen or Marte to shift from center field, but it is equally feasible for them to trade Marte or Presley in an attempt to alleviate this traffic jam and try to strengthen a weaker position. If they somehow manage to retain all of them, then Joel Hanrahan is another possibility as a buy low and sell high trade candidate.

The only position not aforementioned is third base which should have been covered by Pedro Alvarez; however, he had a terrifyingly dismal season and spent nearly two months in the minor league. We can only hope it was his "sophomore slump" and the performance picks up again next season.

There is plenty of talent developing down on the farm, as usually is the case in the Pirates organization, but the question of who we may see make their major league debut in 2012 is a little difficult to distinguish. Marte may make an appearance if a positional opening is made for him, Rudy Owens could fight for a spot in the rotation but it may be difficult if they take his down year in AAA into account, and Matt Hague who was also recently protected from the Rule 5 draft.

I sincerely expect Hague to make his appearance in 2012. He has experience to play first and third base, which may be quite helpful if anyone gets hurt or fails to produce. Hague hits for average with modest power and has incredible patience at the plate. If I had a comparison in mind, I would hope he turns out to become a player similar to Kansas City Royals’ Billy Butler.

The Buccos were a playoff threat and divisional leader this past July, which caused a few fans to regain hope and hop back on the bandwagon. Here’s hoping that 2012 is the year the Pirates once again become an above average team. Perhaps they can reclaim their dominance last seen by fans in 1992.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

New Pirates Catcher Signed

The Pittsburgh Pirates landed a new catcher today in former Los Angeles Dodger, Rod Barajas. He signed a one-year contract valued at $4 million with a 2013 team option worth $3.5 million. I have to be honest, he was not on the top of my list, but I certainly prefer him over Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.

Over the past three seasons, Barajas had the second worst BB/K rate (0.27) among all the free agent catchers, walk percentage (4.8%), and on base percentage (.275). However, he also had the second highest slugging percentage (.424) and second most home runs (52). He has logged the most innings behind home plate among them all (2483.2) and earned the second best Total Zone score (6) with a respectable .994 fielding percentage to boot.

If you can't make heads or tails out of the jumbled paragraph of facts and statistics, then let me lend you my explanation. Barajas is not a very disciplined hitter. He should not reach base nearly as often as Doumit or even Snyder, but he has the capability to hit the ball over the fence at least a few times every season. His defense and longevity sets himself apart from the rest of the pack.

Top Five Free Agent Catchers in 2011, via FunGraphs

Top Five Free Agent Catchers over 3 Seasons, via FunGraphs

Many other Pirates bloggers and analysts would have preferred Ramon Hernandez, obviously because he was the superior choice out of them all, but would have cost them a draft pick as a Type A free agent. I would have stayed away from Jorge Posada given his age, horrendous performance at the plate, and lack of appearances behind the plate last season, though it would have been quite hilarious if we ended up signing him since it would have been a tale of rags to riches, only reversed, and I do enjoy it when a previously successful Yankee succumbs to poverty. I would have still preferred Kelly Shoppach as my catcher, but he may not have been as affordable.

Barajas must have some pretty reasonable defense and slugging to offset his otherwise poor hitting in order to rank himself so highly in this group, third highest WAR this past season and fifth highest over the last three seasons. His price tag was much more cost effective than Doumit and Snyder's options, so I am pretty satisfied by this decision.

To end this post, I want to share this animated gif of Rod Barajas from earlier this season extracted from Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. This alone makes me excited to have such a crazy, weird guy on my team.

Rod Barajas treats Dee Gordon like a baby