What's going on? Did the author of this blog die? No, I'm here.
Sorry about that, but a job search is a full-time job for an unemployed gentleman like myself.
Less than two months ago I was writing about the St. Louis Cardinals' offensive dominance and the Pittsburgh Pirates' inability to score runs. This is still generally true. The Cards have the highest run differential in the National League while the Pirates have the lowest runs scored among all teams in the Major Leagues. Be that as it may, you wouldn't realize it from the divisional standings.
The Buccos are currently one game over .500 (!) with a record of 28-27, three games behind the first place Cincinnati Reds. Pythagorean expectation shows the Pirates have been incredibly lucky and/or very efficient. James McDonald has been lights out, which is why you may be hearing his name in the same conversation with other guys like Cole Hamels, and not the typical conversation we Pirates fans are accustomed to hearing such as "J Mac was defeated by Hamels and the Phillies." A.J. Burnett has been pretty stellar as well.
Meanwhile the Cards have slid out of first place and are now tied with the Pirates thanks to to an injury induced slump. Chris Carpenter, Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, Skip Schumaker, Matt Carpenter, Kyle McClellan, and Scott Linebrink are all on the disabled list. They only need two more injuries to field a second lineup of crippled Cardinals.
I know this is not much analysis, but I still think it's rather shocking. I promise to have some more ideas coming soon for my reader(s)!
Baseball analysis from a Bucco fan, Cards fan & fantasy baseball enthusiast.
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Highs and Lows
 |
| David Freese goes yard. |
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates have only managed to begin the season with a record of 5-7 and is four games behind the Cardinals. Their pitching is keeping the team alive, while the offense already seems dead. They have only scored 26 runs thus far this season, which puts them in last place by a sizable margin of seven runs. Surprisingly, they do not have the worst record in baseball due to their pitching and defense only allowing 35 runs, which is the fourth best in baseball and one run better than the Cards.
It seems like both teams picked up where they left off last season. Doesn't it?
The Cards offense is currently dominating the majors in many offensive categories including batting average (.301), on base percentage (.367), runs (70), RBI (70), and WAR (5.9). They are also a very close second in slugging percentage (.513). The Buccos are last in nearly every category including hits (80), batting average (.205), on base percentage (.252), slugging percentage (.287), runs (26), RBI (23), and WAR (-0.3). They are second to last in homeruns with six, one more than the lowly Chicago Cubs.
 |
| Andrew McCutchen game winner. |
That may sound almost comparable, but let me paint a picture for you. Pedro Alvarez and Rod Barajas both have two hits thus far this season (oddly enough, all four are extra base hits), which is the same as the Card's Lynn and Garcia. Alvarez is currently leading the majors with an atrocious 46.4% strikeout rate. That's worse than our annual leaders in whiffs: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.
What does all this mean? The Cardinals are doing well right now and will be even better once Wainwright returns to form. Lance Berkman was hampered by a calf injury and will finally hit the disabled list, but the young guys on the bench have stepped up to fill his big shoes.
Generally speaking, the Pirates need to play better. They have been doing well with run prevention, but they really need to work on run creation. Alvarez and Barajas are not the only ones who need to wake up. Neil Walker, Clint Barmes, and Jose Tabata have all been dragging their feet as well.
The two teams start a three game series tomorrow in Pittsburgh, so we shall see how this story unfolds.
Fri, April 20 at 7:05pm: Charlie Morton vs. Lance Lynn
Sat, April 21 at 7:05pm: Kevin Correia vs. Jake Westbrook
Sun, April 22 at 1:35pm: Erik Bedard vs. Kyle Lohse
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Offseason Christmas Wishlist
Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house.
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse...
Neal Huntington may be asleep as well. Just take a look at some of Pittsburgh's questionable situations and their answers for them thus far.
Pittsburgh's last major league transaction sent Jose Veras to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for McGehee on December 12th. Pirates Prospects now estimates their 40-man payroll at approximately $46 million, which is at least $4 million less than their originally announced budget. I am satisfied with the way they answered most of their questions, but first base still leaves me wanting more. I would not be against them targeting an additional starting pitcher as well.
John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals have my permission to have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
The Cards may have lost Albert Pujols, but signing Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright's return should recover any wins they may have lost without him while maintaining their $110 million payroll. Fantastic.
What more could I ask for Christmas?
Contract extensions for Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, and Wainwright.
Thanks for listening, Santa.
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse...
Neal Huntington may be asleep as well. Just take a look at some of Pittsburgh's questionable situations and their answers for them thus far.
Pittsburgh's last major league transaction sent Jose Veras to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for McGehee on December 12th. Pirates Prospects now estimates their 40-man payroll at approximately $46 million, which is at least $4 million less than their originally announced budget. I am satisfied with the way they answered most of their questions, but first base still leaves me wanting more. I would not be against them targeting an additional starting pitcher as well.
Catcher
x Ryan Doumit contract option declined.
x Chris Snyder contract option declined.
o Rod Barajas signed for $4MM over 1 year.
First Base
x Derrek Lee becomes a free agent and declines arbitration.
o Garrett Jones offered arbitration.
o Lee, Carlos Pena.
Third Base
x Pedro Alvarez may have another dismal season.
o Casey McGehee acquired from Milwaukee.
Shortstop
x Ronny Cedeno contract option declined.
o Clint Barmes signed for $10.5MM over 2 years.
Starting Pitcher
x Paul Maholm contract option declined.
x Ross Ohlendorf non-tendered and released.
o Erik Bedard signed for $4.5MM over 1 year.
o Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Francis, Rich Harden, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Saunders.
John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals have my permission to have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
The Cards may have lost Albert Pujols, but signing Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright's return should recover any wins they may have lost without him while maintaining their $110 million payroll. Fantastic.
First Base
x Pujols becomes a free agent and signs with Los Angeles Angels.
o Lance Berkman shifts from right field to play first base.
Second Base
x Nick Punto becomes a free agent and signs with Boston Red Sox.
x Ryan Theriot non-tendered and released.
o Skip Schumaker resigned for $3MM over 2 years.
o Daniel Descalso, Tyler Greene, and Allen Craig are under team control through 2013.
Shortstop
x Rafael Furcal becomes a free agent.
o Furcal is resigned for $14MM over 2 years.
Center Field
x Jon Jay is under team control through 2013, but should not play every day.
o Beltran could cover center field on rare occasions to allow Craig playing time in right field.
Right Field
x Berkman shifts to first base.
x Craig will begin the season on the disabled list.
o Beltran signed for $26MM over 2 years.
Starting Pitcher
x Edwin Jackson becomes a free agent.
o Wainwright returns from Tommy John surgery.
Relief Pitcher
x Octavio Dotel becomes a free agent and signs with Detroit Tigers.
o J.C. Romero signed for $750K over 1 year.
Key
Team Losses: x
Questionable: o
Acceptable: o
What more could I ask for Christmas?
Contract extensions for Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, and Wainwright.
Thanks for listening, Santa.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Furcal Returns for Two Year Deal
The St. Louis Cardinals made a move I was expecting and signed veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal to a 2 year contract worth $14 million. The price was reasonable as I had predicted a seasonal salary of about $8 million. This acquisition supports the "realistic outcome" I theorized in my post on Friday. Check it out if you haven't read it yet.
Furcal is not a terrible baseball player, but he is a rather high risk at this price. He used to be a major threat on the bases who would steal 20+ bases per season. Now his greatest threat is to land on the disabled list for most of the season. He played in fairly unabbreviated seasons for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers from 2002 through 2007, but has averaged only 92.5 games per season since 2008.
I understand the Cardinals did not want to give Jimmy Rollins the five year contract he desires. Not signing Rollins also allows them to avoid talking to Dan Lozano for a second time, which is probably ideal after their failure to sign Albert Pujols. I have a tendency to avoid confrontation, so I would have done the same thing in their situation.
This acquisition almost certainly indicates Ryan Theriot will be non-tendered. If they continue with the "realistic" route, then I'm willing to place a bet on seeing Nick Punto, Darren Oliver, George Sherrill, and Carlos Beltran pop up in Cardinals rumors.
Furcal is not a terrible baseball player, but he is a rather high risk at this price. He used to be a major threat on the bases who would steal 20+ bases per season. Now his greatest threat is to land on the disabled list for most of the season. He played in fairly unabbreviated seasons for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers from 2002 through 2007, but has averaged only 92.5 games per season since 2008.
I understand the Cardinals did not want to give Jimmy Rollins the five year contract he desires. Not signing Rollins also allows them to avoid talking to Dan Lozano for a second time, which is probably ideal after their failure to sign Albert Pujols. I have a tendency to avoid confrontation, so I would have done the same thing in their situation.
This acquisition almost certainly indicates Ryan Theriot will be non-tendered. If they continue with the "realistic" route, then I'm willing to place a bet on seeing Nick Punto, Darren Oliver, George Sherrill, and Carlos Beltran pop up in Cardinals rumors.
Friday, December 9, 2011
The Cardinals Nest Egg
Albert Pujols is gone. That's yesterday's news. As the St. Louis Cardinals management, bloggers, and fans move forward, we can only wonder what looms in the future.
Once again I am extremely depressed there is not a resource with 40-man payroll projections similar to Pirates Prospects. The best option for general bloggers like me is to combine Cot's Baseball Contracts with MLBTR's Offseason Outlook. It's not pretty, but please cut me some slack.
The Cards currently have approximately $80 million allotted before any arbitration agreements or including anyone with less than three seasons of service time. If you include my rough estimates with MLBTR's decision to tender Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte, then their payroll increases to just over $90 million. Derrick Goold reported this from the winter meetings in Dallas: "Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the Cardinals will be targeting a $110 million payroll for 2012. John Mozeliak said not having Pujols as a part of that doesn't adjust the payroll downward." If this remains true, then they should have about $20 million worth of Pujols Fun Bucks to help repair the team.
MLBTR also suggests Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot are non-tender candidates, but there is no telling who the Cards will keep now that Pujols is off the roster. MLB Depth Charts indicates they should be shopping for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed reliever. They also want an extra outfielder to cover for Allen Craig while he is on the disabled list and provide backup for Jon Jay, or vice versa. It is extremely doubtful they will look at anyone in the catcher, third base, or starting pitcher market as they already have some of the best available locked in for next season. For the sake of trying to provide a balanced argument, I wanted to create a list of the best free agents still available who may be desirable to the Cardinals and sorted them by their WAR from last season with a value of one or greater.
I do not necessarily agree with acquiring a first baseman as they already have Lance Berkman and Craig who are both capable of playing first as well as a corner outfield position. The Cards also have prospect Matt Adams who most recently played AA ball in 2011 and will likely be promoted to AAA this year, which should allow him to be ready for his MLB debut either later next season or in 2013. Now that Albert is out of the picture, I want Adams to make a clean entry to the Major Leagues as soon as he is ready.
My desire to leave first base open eventually led to a small debate with my girlfriend's brother who feels we should sign Prince Fielder. He noted his first choice would have been Jose Reyes and I would have agreed with him had the Miami Marlins not beat us to the punch.
Eric Seidman from FanGraphs talked about Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Beltran as his preferred free agents. Rollins is the ideal candidate of the three with modest defense at shortstop and has been consistently healthy over his career, but it may be an awkward experience to speak with another Dan Lozano client and the Philadelphia Phillies may want to keep him. Beltran is aging quickly even though he is only 34. He may do well to fill in for Craig, but I would not want to see him in center field. Seidman also contemplates several trade targets in J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez. Any of these guys would be great acquisitions for shortstop, but I am wary to see what would be asked in return.
Michael Barr from RotoHardball speculates the Cardinals should achieve the same number of wins next season even with the loss of Pujols. Berkman shifts to first base, Craig plays right field full-time, and Adam Wainwright returns as the staff ace. He touches upon the same possibilities at shortstop as well as Beltran, but mentions the rumor of shopping Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. If they are able to unload one of them, then they could pursue Roy Oswalt. This is extremely unlikely as both pitchers have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. If it were possible, I would have been a bigger fan of granting Mark Buehrle's wish to come to St. Louis.
Personally, I hope they take an adventurous approach and acquire Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes or an international free agent from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Cespedes is an outfielder who could play center field full-time while Jay fills in for Craig until he returned from the disabled list. If not him then Beltran, Michael Cuddyer, Coco Crisp, or Josh Willingham would be more typical selections who could provide more depth to their outfield.
The more urgent area to fix is their middle infield. The market for second basemen is quite scarce, so it may be wise to bring Nick Punto back for at least another season unless they decide to experiment with Craig or Cuddyer at second. It would be great to see them sign a player like Munenori Kawasaki at shortstop, but I recall reading he only wants to play for the Seattle Mariners with Ichiro Suzuki. Otherwise Rollins, Furcal, or Ronny Cedeno are the only other legitimate choices.
The list of free agent left-handed relief pitchers is ancient, so I hope they decide to trade for somebody or get creative. Perhaps they could convince a left-handed starting pitcher from Japan to convert to the bullpen (Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada), which is unlikely unless they opted to considerably overpay them. If somebody forced me to pick from the free agent pool, I would pick either Darren Oliver or George Sherrill.
I cannot accurately foresee their salaries, especially those supposedly arriving from overseas. The "fantastic" projection is almost certainly overpriced and quite an unrealistic expectation from the Cardinals front office, though it would be quite exciting. I would expect the "realistic" estimate to fall within the $110 million parameters, but it would cause our roster to be aged and brittle. Without further ado here are several variations of the Cardinals 25-man roster: current, fantastic, and realistic.
Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in rose.
Once again I am extremely depressed there is not a resource with 40-man payroll projections similar to Pirates Prospects. The best option for general bloggers like me is to combine Cot's Baseball Contracts with MLBTR's Offseason Outlook. It's not pretty, but please cut me some slack.
The Cards currently have approximately $80 million allotted before any arbitration agreements or including anyone with less than three seasons of service time. If you include my rough estimates with MLBTR's decision to tender Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte, then their payroll increases to just over $90 million. Derrick Goold reported this from the winter meetings in Dallas: "Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the Cardinals will be targeting a $110 million payroll for 2012. John Mozeliak said not having Pujols as a part of that doesn't adjust the payroll downward." If this remains true, then they should have about $20 million worth of Pujols Fun Bucks to help repair the team.
MLBTR also suggests Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot are non-tender candidates, but there is no telling who the Cards will keep now that Pujols is off the roster. MLB Depth Charts indicates they should be shopping for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed reliever. They also want an extra outfielder to cover for Allen Craig while he is on the disabled list and provide backup for Jon Jay, or vice versa. It is extremely doubtful they will look at anyone in the catcher, third base, or starting pitcher market as they already have some of the best available locked in for next season. For the sake of trying to provide a balanced argument, I wanted to create a list of the best free agents still available who may be desirable to the Cardinals and sorted them by their WAR from last season with a value of one or greater.
I do not necessarily agree with acquiring a first baseman as they already have Lance Berkman and Craig who are both capable of playing first as well as a corner outfield position. The Cards also have prospect Matt Adams who most recently played AA ball in 2011 and will likely be promoted to AAA this year, which should allow him to be ready for his MLB debut either later next season or in 2013. Now that Albert is out of the picture, I want Adams to make a clean entry to the Major Leagues as soon as he is ready.
My desire to leave first base open eventually led to a small debate with my girlfriend's brother who feels we should sign Prince Fielder. He noted his first choice would have been Jose Reyes and I would have agreed with him had the Miami Marlins not beat us to the punch.
Eric Seidman from FanGraphs talked about Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Beltran as his preferred free agents. Rollins is the ideal candidate of the three with modest defense at shortstop and has been consistently healthy over his career, but it may be an awkward experience to speak with another Dan Lozano client and the Philadelphia Phillies may want to keep him. Beltran is aging quickly even though he is only 34. He may do well to fill in for Craig, but I would not want to see him in center field. Seidman also contemplates several trade targets in J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez. Any of these guys would be great acquisitions for shortstop, but I am wary to see what would be asked in return.
Michael Barr from RotoHardball speculates the Cardinals should achieve the same number of wins next season even with the loss of Pujols. Berkman shifts to first base, Craig plays right field full-time, and Adam Wainwright returns as the staff ace. He touches upon the same possibilities at shortstop as well as Beltran, but mentions the rumor of shopping Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. If they are able to unload one of them, then they could pursue Roy Oswalt. This is extremely unlikely as both pitchers have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. If it were possible, I would have been a bigger fan of granting Mark Buehrle's wish to come to St. Louis.
Personally, I hope they take an adventurous approach and acquire Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes or an international free agent from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Cespedes is an outfielder who could play center field full-time while Jay fills in for Craig until he returned from the disabled list. If not him then Beltran, Michael Cuddyer, Coco Crisp, or Josh Willingham would be more typical selections who could provide more depth to their outfield.
The more urgent area to fix is their middle infield. The market for second basemen is quite scarce, so it may be wise to bring Nick Punto back for at least another season unless they decide to experiment with Craig or Cuddyer at second. It would be great to see them sign a player like Munenori Kawasaki at shortstop, but I recall reading he only wants to play for the Seattle Mariners with Ichiro Suzuki. Otherwise Rollins, Furcal, or Ronny Cedeno are the only other legitimate choices.
The list of free agent left-handed relief pitchers is ancient, so I hope they decide to trade for somebody or get creative. Perhaps they could convince a left-handed starting pitcher from Japan to convert to the bullpen (Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada), which is unlikely unless they opted to considerably overpay them. If somebody forced me to pick from the free agent pool, I would pick either Darren Oliver or George Sherrill.
I cannot accurately foresee their salaries, especially those supposedly arriving from overseas. The "fantastic" projection is almost certainly overpriced and quite an unrealistic expectation from the Cardinals front office, though it would be quite exciting. I would expect the "realistic" estimate to fall within the $110 million parameters, but it would cause our roster to be aged and brittle. Without further ado here are several variations of the Cardinals 25-man roster: current, fantastic, and realistic.
Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in rose.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Pujols Has Flown the Coop
Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame some day. When that day comes, the St. Louis Cardinals will retire his number and so will the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (formerly known as the Anaheim Angels, formerly known as the California Angels, and formerly known as the Los Angeles Angels).
The Angels signed Pujols to a $254 million contract over 10 years and includes a full no-trade clause. I honestly did not expect it after Albert repeatedly stated in the past his desire to be a Cardinal for life like Stan Musial. The Miami Marlins created some pressure, which made me quite nervous. The Marlins backed down from their previous offers on Wednesday, which relieved my tension and I eventually fell soundly asleep.
Allow me to provide foreshadow by tweaking a memorable quote from Futurama:
"Ooh, thejedis Cardinals fans are going to feel this one."
I was a little restless in bed Thursday morning and decided to check Twitter only to find the news. I first saw it mentioned by ESPN and SportsCenter, then Twitter exploded with further depressing news.
Bob Nightengale: The #STLCards actually had only the fourth-largest offer to Albert Pujols, behind the #Marlins, #Angels and the mystery team.
Buster Olney: Agent competition always fascinating. Pujols gets $254 million... Just a little over A-rod's $252m. Never a coincidence.
Jenifer Langosch: Albert Pujols is going to miss those guaranteed yearly visits to PNC Park. He has a .376 average, 29 HRs and 85 RBIs in 89 games there.
Of course, unless you were hiding under a rock and only read my blog for some reason, then you know the Angels did not stop there. They also signed former Texas Rangers starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson, to a $77.5 million contract over 5 years, which includes a full no-trade clause over the first two years and partial in the last three. If you were shocked by the Marlins giving $191MM to three players, then the Angels paying two guys $327.5M would have given you a heart attack. It was slightly humorous when I read the Marlins actually had the high offer submitted for both players, yet they decided against them.
ESPN Stats: Angels signed Wilson & Pujols for $327.5M. KC, TB, PIT, SD, CLE, ARI and FLA owed a combined $327.8M to their opening day rosters for 2011.
MLBTR: Albert Pujols Signing Reactions
STL: Fear The Red: The Five Stages of Pujols Leaving
The Cardinal Nation blog: It’s ok. Just don’t insult us, Albert. It was about the money.
Viva El Birdos: The End of an Era: Pujols to Sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Pitchers Hit Eighth: Pujols Signs With Angels, Gets Free Disney Passes!
C70: Devastation
I-70 Baseball: Farewell
stltoday.com: A message for Albert the Machine from Stan the Man
stltoday.com: Bob Gibson on Pujols: 'He should have been a Cardinal for life'
I am not bitter or upset, though I am a little depressed with a now dated Pujols jersey. You would expect I would be desensitized from this behavior as a Pirates fan, but alas, I am not. I actually never owned a baseball jersey until I moved to St. Louis because I did not want to pay for a custom jersey, then have that chosen player leave. So much for that.
I trust this was the best decision for Albert and only wish it would have kept him in a Cardinals uniform. Cardinal nation may be frustrated, sad, angry, or some mixture of the three, but this blogger hopes he does not forget his 11 years in St. Louis because we will not forget him. I will continue dining out at Pujols 5 as long as it remains open and would gladly welcome him back to St. Louis, whether or not he wears Cardinals red.
Further analysis and speculation will come over the next few days.
The Angels signed Pujols to a $254 million contract over 10 years and includes a full no-trade clause. I honestly did not expect it after Albert repeatedly stated in the past his desire to be a Cardinal for life like Stan Musial. The Miami Marlins created some pressure, which made me quite nervous. The Marlins backed down from their previous offers on Wednesday, which relieved my tension and I eventually fell soundly asleep.
Allow me to provide foreshadow by tweaking a memorable quote from Futurama:
"Ooh, the
 |
| Albert Pujols at the 2008 All Star Game, via Facebook |
Bob Nightengale: The #STLCards actually had only the fourth-largest offer to Albert Pujols, behind the #Marlins, #Angels and the mystery team.
Buster Olney: Agent competition always fascinating. Pujols gets $254 million... Just a little over A-rod's $252m. Never a coincidence.
Jenifer Langosch: Albert Pujols is going to miss those guaranteed yearly visits to PNC Park. He has a .376 average, 29 HRs and 85 RBIs in 89 games there.
Of course, unless you were hiding under a rock and only read my blog for some reason, then you know the Angels did not stop there. They also signed former Texas Rangers starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson, to a $77.5 million contract over 5 years, which includes a full no-trade clause over the first two years and partial in the last three. If you were shocked by the Marlins giving $191MM to three players, then the Angels paying two guys $327.5M would have given you a heart attack. It was slightly humorous when I read the Marlins actually had the high offer submitted for both players, yet they decided against them.
ESPN Stats: Angels signed Wilson & Pujols for $327.5M. KC, TB, PIT, SD, CLE, ARI and FLA owed a combined $327.8M to their opening day rosters for 2011.
MLBTR: Albert Pujols Signing Reactions
STL: Fear The Red: The Five Stages of Pujols Leaving
The Cardinal Nation blog: It’s ok. Just don’t insult us, Albert. It was about the money.
Viva El Birdos: The End of an Era: Pujols to Sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Pitchers Hit Eighth: Pujols Signs With Angels, Gets Free Disney Passes!
C70: Devastation
I-70 Baseball: Farewell
stltoday.com: A message for Albert the Machine from Stan the Man
stltoday.com: Bob Gibson on Pujols: 'He should have been a Cardinal for life'
I am not bitter or upset, though I am a little depressed with a now dated Pujols jersey. You would expect I would be desensitized from this behavior as a Pirates fan, but alas, I am not. I actually never owned a baseball jersey until I moved to St. Louis because I did not want to pay for a custom jersey, then have that chosen player leave. So much for that.
I trust this was the best decision for Albert and only wish it would have kept him in a Cardinals uniform. Cardinal nation may be frustrated, sad, angry, or some mixture of the three, but this blogger hopes he does not forget his 11 years in St. Louis because we will not forget him. I will continue dining out at Pujols 5 as long as it remains open and would gladly welcome him back to St. Louis, whether or not he wears Cardinals red.
Further analysis and speculation will come over the next few days.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Pirates Report Card, etc
I have not posted anything recently, but rest assured I did not stop writing. I simply took a small vacation to visit family and friends in Pennsylvania.
Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:
http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/11/24/bd-report-card-pittsburgh-pirates
The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card
In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.
Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:
The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card
In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.
Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig
Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.
I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.
I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:
Let's start Craig at second base.
Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.
Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.
Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.
If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.
John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.
Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.
The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.
Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.
Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.
I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:
Let's start Craig at second base.
Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.
Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.
Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.
 |
| I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B |
John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.
 |
| I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B |
The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.
Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Plan B: Beyond Pujols
I previously asked how much Albert Pujols was worth. Based upon my results, his next contract should range between $17 and $35 million per year. That's an average possibility of $26 million per year. Whether or not you believe he deserves the amount he receives does not matter at this time because it is inevitable. You can blame the lack of a salary cap, but that is something to debate on another day.
The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?
Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.
Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.
In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."
I agree with Larry's opinions, especially regarding his final statement. The free agent market is weak this offseason and the money saved from not signing Albert could be better spent on the possibility of a more talented crop of free agents next year. Failure to sign Albert would be a devastating loss to the fans of Cardinal nation, but they should not feel obligated to sign a free agent just for the sake of signing somebody.
If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.
I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.
The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?
Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.
Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.
In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."
 |
| FanGraphs and Viva El Birdos speculates a lineup without Albert Pujols |
If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.
I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Matheny is La Russa's Successor
Last week the St. Louis Cardinals had six candidates for their managerial position which opened when Tony La Russa retired. Today Mike Matheny, former catcher, was formally announced as his replacement.
I was not a part of Cardinal nation when Matheny was a part of the team, so I do not have a firsthand appreciation for him. He is described as a great leader and answered questions with surprising eloquence during this morning's press conference, but will he be a great manager? Of course this is difficult to determine because John Mozeliak decided upon the only candidate with no previous managerial experience, though he was a special assistant in player development last year and a minor league instructor the year beforehand.
Cards Diaspora had an interesting list of the candidates and I thought the most interesting possibility was Ryne Sandberg. Why on earth would the Chicago Cubs overlook a Hall of Famer with managing experience in the minor leagues? Terry Francona was the most seasoned option, but may have been overlooked due to his affiliation and recent affinity toward newfound Cubs president, Theo Epstein.
We will find out if he succeeds during the next regular season, but I am wondering about the immediate repercussions. For example, Albert Pujols would supposedly resign with the Cards if Jose Oquendo were elected to be the manager, so did those odds decrease? Oquendo was not selected for the position he interviewed, so will he quietly continue as their third base coach? Will the other coaches and trainers choose to be his subordinates even though a few were actually his superiors years prior?
One offseason question is finally answered, but it causes several other questions.
I was not a part of Cardinal nation when Matheny was a part of the team, so I do not have a firsthand appreciation for him. He is described as a great leader and answered questions with surprising eloquence during this morning's press conference, but will he be a great manager? Of course this is difficult to determine because John Mozeliak decided upon the only candidate with no previous managerial experience, though he was a special assistant in player development last year and a minor league instructor the year beforehand.
Cards Diaspora had an interesting list of the candidates and I thought the most interesting possibility was Ryne Sandberg. Why on earth would the Chicago Cubs overlook a Hall of Famer with managing experience in the minor leagues? Terry Francona was the most seasoned option, but may have been overlooked due to his affiliation and recent affinity toward newfound Cubs president, Theo Epstein.
We will find out if he succeeds during the next regular season, but I am wondering about the immediate repercussions. For example, Albert Pujols would supposedly resign with the Cards if Jose Oquendo were elected to be the manager, so did those odds decrease? Oquendo was not selected for the position he interviewed, so will he quietly continue as their third base coach? Will the other coaches and trainers choose to be his subordinates even though a few were actually his superiors years prior?
One offseason question is finally answered, but it causes several other questions.
Friday, November 11, 2011
What is Pujols Worth?
Albert Pujols is a free agent. As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, hearing that may be difficult to swallow, but I finally came to the realization he may not be back next season after hearing he will be visiting with the Miami Marlins.
The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.
Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.
Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.
Pujols has been an outstanding player ever since he first appeared in the Majors in 2001 and has been superior to Sabathia every season aside from 2011. He has performed fairly consistently over the course of his entire career, though you can see a steep decline since 2009 (since 2008 if you really want to argue a difference of WAR from 9.1 to 9.0 is really a decline).
He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.
So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.
A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.
I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.
What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."
The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.
Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.
Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.
 |
| Albert Pujols (red/blue) versus CC Sabathia (navy/white) |
He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.
So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.
|
|
| Year | $/Win | Max WAR | Max Value | Min WAR | Min Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 5.00 | 8.0 | $40.00 | 5.1 | $25.50 |
| 2013 | 5.25 | 7.5 | $39.38 | 4.6 | $25.50 |
| 2014 | 5.51 | 7.0 | $38.59 | 4.1 | $24.15 |
| 2015 | 5.79 | 6.5 | $37.62 | 3.6 | $22.60 |
| 2016 | 6.08 | 6.0 | $36.47 | 3.1 | $18.84 |
| 2017 | 6.38 | 5.5 | $35.10 | 2.6 | $16.59 |
| 2018 | 6.70 | 5.0 | $33.50 | 2.1 | $14.07 |
| 2019 | 7.04 | 4.5 | $31.66 | 1.6 | $11.26 |
| 2020 | 7.39 | 4.0 | $29.55 | 1.1 | $8.13 |
| 2021 | 7.76 | 3.5 | $27.15 | 0.6 | $4.65 |
| - | - | 57.5 | $349.01 | 28.5 | $166.63 |
A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.
I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.
What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert
Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.
Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.
The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.
The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.
MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.
Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?
I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.
As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.
I understand Albert isprobably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.
 |
| Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score |
The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.
 |
| Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011 |
The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.
 |
| Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts |
MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.
Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?
 |
| Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate |
I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.
As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.
I understand Albert is
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Hibernation
Autumn has its stranglehold upon the trees, the temperature is dropping, and my muscles feel stiff. Baseball season is officially over.
I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.
This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.
In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.
Why so glum?
Offseason Entertainment:
MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
Baseball Mogul 2012: here.
Personal Offseason Projects:
Pirates Payroll Speculation
Cardinals Payroll Speculation
Payroll Win Efficiency
Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
League Realignment Proposal
League Expansion Proposal
Playoff Expansion Proposal
Correction:
The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.
I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.
This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.
In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.
Why so glum?
Offseason Entertainment:
MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
Baseball Mogul 2012: here.
Personal Offseason Projects:
Pirates Payroll Speculation
Cardinals Payroll Speculation
Payroll Win Efficiency
Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
League Realignment Proposal
League Expansion Proposal
Playoff Expansion Proposal
Correction:
The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Surreal, Unreal
Yesterday was the St. Louis Cardinals' 2011 World Series celebration. My girlfriend, Linda, and I were in queue to get our tickets on Saturday afternoon at 2:15 pm, then finally bought two at 2:50 pm. Luckily they did not sell out before then, otherwise we would have missed an incredible experience.
Surreal.
We arrived at 1:30 pm, keep in mind the parade did not start until 4. After walking along the parade route for a little while, we could not find any openings next to the railing. We were too late for a front row spot, so we decided to sit on a brick wall in front of some bushes. Not only did it give us a place to sit down over the next two hours while we waited for the celebration to begin, but it allowed us to overlook the enormous sea of red that laid between us and the parade route.
Unfortunately, the first few photos from the parade were a little blurry, but switching my camera from landscape to sports mode seemed to work fairly well. I did my best to caption each photo based the name on the vehicle or if I could recognize them. Please correct me if I was wrong anywhere.
Less than 24 hours after Tony La Russa made his speech in Busch Stadium, he announced his retirement. I had suspected TLR would hold off on his own contract until he saw where Albert Pujols would land. I was not expecting the announcement at all and now the Cards have an opening for their manager position in 2012.
Unreal.
I read many posts and news articles over the course of the 2011 season questioning if he should retire. Some suggested he should have retired after the 2006 season to finish on top. He showed all his disbelievers by not only exiting on top, but earning his third World Series championship of his managerial career in the most dramatic fashion imaginable.
La Russa managed the Chicago White Sox from 1979 to 1986, the Oakland Athletics from 1986 to 1995, and the St. Louis Cardinals from 1996 to 2011. He ends his managerial career with 2,728 wins (3rd all-time), 2,365 losses, and a .536 winning percentage. He earned three AL Pennants and one World Series title with the A's, three NL Pennants and two World Series titles with the Cardinals, and will almost certainly be inducted to the Hall of Fame.
Congratulations, Tony.
Thank you, from this blog writer and the rest of Cardinal Nation.
Surreal.
We arrived at 1:30 pm, keep in mind the parade did not start until 4. After walking along the parade route for a little while, we could not find any openings next to the railing. We were too late for a front row spot, so we decided to sit on a brick wall in front of some bushes. Not only did it give us a place to sit down over the next two hours while we waited for the celebration to begin, but it allowed us to overlook the enormous sea of red that laid between us and the parade route.
 |
| Our spot on the parade route, 1:45 pm |
 |
| Panorama from our spot on the parade route, 4:00 pm |
Less than 24 hours after Tony La Russa made his speech in Busch Stadium, he announced his retirement. I had suspected TLR would hold off on his own contract until he saw where Albert Pujols would land. I was not expecting the announcement at all and now the Cards have an opening for their manager position in 2012.
Unreal.
I read many posts and news articles over the course of the 2011 season questioning if he should retire. Some suggested he should have retired after the 2006 season to finish on top. He showed all his disbelievers by not only exiting on top, but earning his third World Series championship of his managerial career in the most dramatic fashion imaginable.
La Russa managed the Chicago White Sox from 1979 to 1986, the Oakland Athletics from 1986 to 1995, and the St. Louis Cardinals from 1996 to 2011. He ends his managerial career with 2,728 wins (3rd all-time), 2,365 losses, and a .536 winning percentage. He earned three AL Pennants and one World Series title with the A's, three NL Pennants and two World Series titles with the Cardinals, and will almost certainly be inducted to the Hall of Fame.
Congratulations, Tony.
Thank you, from this blog writer and the rest of Cardinal Nation.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Baseball Euphoria
So this is what it feels like to be a winner. I'll be honest, it feels amazing.
They need to replace the sign along interstate 70 when you cross the bridge into Missouri. It should read "Welcome to St. Louis, Home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Baseball Euphoria."
If you had the privilege to experience everything this season like I did, then you would have suffered from the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training, endured frustrating blown saves by Ryan Franklin, questioned the authenticity of Albert Pujols's poor start, cherished the production from veteran Lance Berkman, were saddened by every loss earned by Chris Carpenter, coped with the rise and fall from Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan, were grateful Jaime Garcia did not have a "sophomore slump," held your breath when Albert was injured in June, exhaled a sigh of relief when he returned in July, wondered why they were battling with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the division, withstood the revolving door of several closers in the bullpen, were skeptical when Colby Rasmus was traded, distressed over the injury-prone seasons of Matt Holliday and David Freese, thoroughly enjoyed when Albert started playing like Albert again, watched with disbelief as the Milwaukee Brewers surged past them for the division lead, looked forward to next season when the Cards were 10 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card, were hopefully optimistic when the Braves slumped, joyful when the Cards won their final game of the regular season, and elated when the Braves were removed from the picture.
The St. Louis Cardinals entire season had it all.
The Cardinals were underdogs entering every series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers, and Texas Rangers. Different heroes surfaced in almost every series: Jon Jay, Jason Motte, David Freese, Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter in the NLDS; Albert Pujols, Jon Jay, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Yadier Molina, and David Freese in the NLCS; and Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, and David Freese in the World Series.
The 2011 World Series had it all.
Everyone contributed at some point over the course of the September and into the October postseason, and that is what made this team unique. Baseball drama at its finest.
Congratulations to Tony La Russa and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.
 |
| Cards celebrate in the locker room after winning World Series, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage |
They need to replace the sign along interstate 70 when you cross the bridge into Missouri. It should read "Welcome to St. Louis, Home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Baseball Euphoria."
If you had the privilege to experience everything this season like I did, then you would have suffered from the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training, endured frustrating blown saves by Ryan Franklin, questioned the authenticity of Albert Pujols's poor start, cherished the production from veteran Lance Berkman, were saddened by every loss earned by Chris Carpenter, coped with the rise and fall from Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan, were grateful Jaime Garcia did not have a "sophomore slump," held your breath when Albert was injured in June, exhaled a sigh of relief when he returned in July, wondered why they were battling with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the division, withstood the revolving door of several closers in the bullpen, were skeptical when Colby Rasmus was traded, distressed over the injury-prone seasons of Matt Holliday and David Freese, thoroughly enjoyed when Albert started playing like Albert again, watched with disbelief as the Milwaukee Brewers surged past them for the division lead, looked forward to next season when the Cards were 10 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card, were hopefully optimistic when the Braves slumped, joyful when the Cards won their final game of the regular season, and elated when the Braves were removed from the picture.
The St. Louis Cardinals entire season had it all.
The Cardinals were underdogs entering every series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers, and Texas Rangers. Different heroes surfaced in almost every series: Jon Jay, Jason Motte, David Freese, Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter in the NLDS; Albert Pujols, Jon Jay, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Yadier Molina, and David Freese in the NLCS; and Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, and David Freese in the World Series.
The 2011 World Series had it all.
 |
| St. Louis Cardinals Postseason Progress Reviewed, Photo via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage |
Everyone contributed at some point over the course of the September and into the October postseason, and that is what made this team unique. Baseball drama at its finest.
Congratulations to Tony La Russa and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Eleven
The St. Louis Cardinals are World Series Champions for the 11th time in their franchise history.
Now, if you excuse me, I'm heading to Dick's Sporting Goods with my girlfriend for our Championship gear!
 |
| 2011 World Series Trophy, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage |
Cards Depend on Carp, Game 7
I am still extremely excited after last night's game, so this post will be brief using an assortment of great links.
Pitchers Hit Eighth: The way most of us watched Game 6...
"This is exactly what the 2011 Cardinals are all about: drama. They’re up, they’re down, they’re underground, but they are never boring. And they LOVE playing from behind."
Beyond the Box Score: David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History
"The returns are in... David Freese now owns the highest WPA in a WS game. His .953 beats Kirk Gibson's .870."
Beyond the Box Score: Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
"We are no longer in the realm of simple probability. ... We now live in a quantum realm where Texas' and St. Louis' title hopes are both alive and dead simultaneously. It is our very observation of the final out that will collapse the wave function (and possibly the Rangers' bullpen) and present us with one of two realities. ... In other words, just watch the game. Watch history in the making."
FanGraphs: Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison
"Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful."
I am a little nervous with Chris Carpenter taking the mound on short rest, but I would have chosen him given the other options (Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Jake Westbrook). My girlfriend and I will definitely be out with the rest of St. Louis tonight. We want to be part of this moment.
Will Carp be masterful like in game five of the NLDS or will he flounder on short rest?
Pitchers Hit Eighth: The way most of us watched Game 6...
"This is exactly what the 2011 Cardinals are all about: drama. They’re up, they’re down, they’re underground, but they are never boring. And they LOVE playing from behind."
Beyond the Box Score: David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History
"The returns are in... David Freese now owns the highest WPA in a WS game. His .953 beats Kirk Gibson's .870."
Beyond the Box Score: Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
"We are no longer in the realm of simple probability. ... We now live in a quantum realm where Texas' and St. Louis' title hopes are both alive and dead simultaneously. It is our very observation of the final out that will collapse the wave function (and possibly the Rangers' bullpen) and present us with one of two realities. ... In other words, just watch the game. Watch history in the making."
FanGraphs: Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison
"Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful."
I am a little nervous with Chris Carpenter taking the mound on short rest, but I would have chosen him given the other options (Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Jake Westbrook). My girlfriend and I will definitely be out with the rest of St. Louis tonight. We want to be part of this moment.
Will Carp be masterful like in game five of the NLDS or will he flounder on short rest?
 |
| Carp Flourishing, via USA Today |
 |
| Carp Floundering, via Steve Creek Outdoors |
Roller Coaster of Emotion
I probably could summarize all eleven innings of game six with just one word: Wow!
Source: FanGraphs
FanGraphs chose a different, but equally fitting, word: Baseball!
I tried to explain the graph to a friend last night while I was still experiencing this rush. Picture the graph as a roller coaster. Hop in the car on the leftside of the graph and ride it out until you reach the end.
What a crazy ride.
I want to give this game the dignity it deserves as one of the most intense World Series games of all time and the best game I ever had the opportunity to watch on television. It would have been a close second if I actually was in attendance at Busch Stadium (like my girlfriend's brother, Sam, or Aaron Hooks from Cards Diaspora), but the position would still be reserved for the 1994 All Star game I saw with my father.
Jaime Garcia had a shaky start. He allowed the first three batters to reach base and surrendered a run to the Texas Rangers offense in the first inning. The St. Louis Cardinals quickly responded with a Lance Berkman two-run home run. The 2-1 lead would be very short-lived as Garcia allowed a second earned run in the second inning to tie the game.
Colby Lewis started shutting down the Cards offense one-by-one and Garcia finally seemed to settle down by throwing a scoreless third inning, but he was gone by the fourth in lieu of the TLR bullpen pitching parade (I need to coin that term).
The Cards stopped following lesson number two from my Survival Guide: "Stop making mistakes." Matt Holliday dropped a routine fly ball, Fernando Salas overthrew a force out at second base, and David Freese dropped an infield pop up. These three errors resulted in two unearned runs.
Luckily, the Rangers made a few blunders of their own. Michael Young bobbled a ground ball and Elvis Andrus tossed a ball wide of first base, which pulled Young off the bag. The Cards managed to tie the game with two unearned runs for themselves and exited the sixth inning 4-4.
Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz each homered in the top of the seventh, then scored once more thanks in part to a wild pitch by Octavio Dotel before finally getting out of the inning with the score 7-4.
Derek Holland entered the game as a reliever earlier during the sixth inning. Many thought his pitching had become infallible after pitching an 8.1 inning gem in game four, then 1.2 innings of solid relief in game six. Allen Craig changed their minds with a solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning to bring the score to 7-5.
Everyone seemed depressed and morbid as Neftali Feliz entered the bottom of the ninth inning. He struck out the first batter he faced, then Albert Pujols came to the plate. The announcers mentioned, once again, this may be Pujol's last at bat as a Cardinal. He delivered with a double, his first and only hit of the World Series outside of game three. Berkman was intentionally walked and Craig struck out, which led to David Freese. He fell behind in the count to 1-2, then tripled to deep right field to tie the game. We move on to 10th!
Jason Motte remained in the game in the 10th for his second inning of relief. He retired the first batter he faced, then allowed a single, and Josh Hamilton swatted a home run to right field with the first pitch he saw. Motte retired the next two batters and exited the inning with a score of 9-7 as the potential losing pitcher.
Darren Oliver entered the game for the Rangers to face against several of the weakest Cardinals hitters. I was nervous. Daniel Descalso singled, Jon Jay singled, and Kyle Lohse hit the weirdest bunt I have ever seen that flew over Beltre's head to advance both runners. Scott Feldman relieved Oliver and Ryan Theriot grounded out, but it sent a run home. Albert came to the plate with a runner third base and two outs. I thought this could be his defining moment, then they walked him. Berkman responded with a clutch single to score the tying run. Onward to the 11th!
Jake Westbrook entered the 11th inning and allowed one single; otherwise, he was great. He provided the greatest WPA among all of the Cardinals pitchers used in the game and the score remained tied.
Freese returned to the plate in the bottom of the eleventh inning as the first batter to face Mark Lowe, the Rangers new relief pitcher. I could tell he was swinging for the fences after he nearly fell over for the first strike, so I decided to retrieve our secret weapon:
Meet Harrison. He is our Rally Gerbil since no squirrels were within reach.
Freese worked the count to 3-2, then launched a game-winning and series-tying solo homer to almost dead center field measured at 428 feet. The Cardinals win, 10-9! The stadium erupted as he rounded the bases and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate who proceeded to tear his jersey off his body.
Harrison was rewarded with a pumpkin seed for being such a good luck charm.
The World Series will be decided in game seven! Will the Cards take their 11th World Series title or will the Rangers earn their first?
Source: FanGraphs
FanGraphs chose a different, but equally fitting, word: Baseball!
I tried to explain the graph to a friend last night while I was still experiencing this rush. Picture the graph as a roller coaster. Hop in the car on the leftside of the graph and ride it out until you reach the end.
What a crazy ride.
I want to give this game the dignity it deserves as one of the most intense World Series games of all time and the best game I ever had the opportunity to watch on television. It would have been a close second if I actually was in attendance at Busch Stadium (like my girlfriend's brother, Sam, or Aaron Hooks from Cards Diaspora), but the position would still be reserved for the 1994 All Star game I saw with my father.
Jaime Garcia had a shaky start. He allowed the first three batters to reach base and surrendered a run to the Texas Rangers offense in the first inning. The St. Louis Cardinals quickly responded with a Lance Berkman two-run home run. The 2-1 lead would be very short-lived as Garcia allowed a second earned run in the second inning to tie the game.
Colby Lewis started shutting down the Cards offense one-by-one and Garcia finally seemed to settle down by throwing a scoreless third inning, but he was gone by the fourth in lieu of the TLR bullpen pitching parade (I need to coin that term).
The Cards stopped following lesson number two from my Survival Guide: "Stop making mistakes." Matt Holliday dropped a routine fly ball, Fernando Salas overthrew a force out at second base, and David Freese dropped an infield pop up. These three errors resulted in two unearned runs.
Luckily, the Rangers made a few blunders of their own. Michael Young bobbled a ground ball and Elvis Andrus tossed a ball wide of first base, which pulled Young off the bag. The Cards managed to tie the game with two unearned runs for themselves and exited the sixth inning 4-4.
Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz each homered in the top of the seventh, then scored once more thanks in part to a wild pitch by Octavio Dotel before finally getting out of the inning with the score 7-4.
Derek Holland entered the game as a reliever earlier during the sixth inning. Many thought his pitching had become infallible after pitching an 8.1 inning gem in game four, then 1.2 innings of solid relief in game six. Allen Craig changed their minds with a solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning to bring the score to 7-5.
Everyone seemed depressed and morbid as Neftali Feliz entered the bottom of the ninth inning. He struck out the first batter he faced, then Albert Pujols came to the plate. The announcers mentioned, once again, this may be Pujol's last at bat as a Cardinal. He delivered with a double, his first and only hit of the World Series outside of game three. Berkman was intentionally walked and Craig struck out, which led to David Freese. He fell behind in the count to 1-2, then tripled to deep right field to tie the game. We move on to 10th!
Jason Motte remained in the game in the 10th for his second inning of relief. He retired the first batter he faced, then allowed a single, and Josh Hamilton swatted a home run to right field with the first pitch he saw. Motte retired the next two batters and exited the inning with a score of 9-7 as the potential losing pitcher.
Darren Oliver entered the game for the Rangers to face against several of the weakest Cardinals hitters. I was nervous. Daniel Descalso singled, Jon Jay singled, and Kyle Lohse hit the weirdest bunt I have ever seen that flew over Beltre's head to advance both runners. Scott Feldman relieved Oliver and Ryan Theriot grounded out, but it sent a run home. Albert came to the plate with a runner third base and two outs. I thought this could be his defining moment, then they walked him. Berkman responded with a clutch single to score the tying run. Onward to the 11th!
Jake Westbrook entered the 11th inning and allowed one single; otherwise, he was great. He provided the greatest WPA among all of the Cardinals pitchers used in the game and the score remained tied.
Freese returned to the plate in the bottom of the eleventh inning as the first batter to face Mark Lowe, the Rangers new relief pitcher. I could tell he was swinging for the fences after he nearly fell over for the first strike, so I decided to retrieve our secret weapon:
 |
| Rally "Squirrel" |
Freese worked the count to 3-2, then launched a game-winning and series-tying solo homer to almost dead center field measured at 428 feet. The Cardinals win, 10-9! The stadium erupted as he rounded the bases and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate who proceeded to tear his jersey off his body.
Harrison was rewarded with a pumpkin seed for being such a good luck charm.
 |
| David Freese takes a bow after his Game 6 heroics, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)