The Cardinals Nest Egg

Albert Pujols is gone. That's yesterday's news. As the St. Louis Cardinals management, bloggers, and fans move forward, we can only wonder what looms in the future.

Once again I am extremely depressed there is not a resource with 40-man payroll projections similar to Pirates Prospects. The best option for general bloggers like me is to combine Cot's Baseball Contracts with MLBTR's Offseason Outlook. It's not pretty, but please cut me some slack.


The Cards currently have approximately $80 million allotted before any arbitration agreements or including anyone with less than three seasons of service time. If you include my rough estimates with MLBTR's decision to tender Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte, then their payroll increases to just over $90 million. Derrick Goold reported this from the winter meetings in Dallas: "Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the Cardinals will be targeting a $110 million payroll for 2012. John Mozeliak said not having Pujols as a part of that doesn't adjust the payroll downward." If this remains true, then they should have about $20 million worth of Pujols Fun Bucks to help repair the team.

MLBTR also suggests Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot are non-tender candidates, but there is no telling who the Cards will keep now that Pujols is off the roster. MLB Depth Charts indicates they should be shopping for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed reliever. They also want an extra outfielder to cover for Allen Craig while he is on the disabled list and provide backup for Jon Jay, or vice versa. It is extremely doubtful they will look at anyone in the catcher, third base, or starting pitcher market as they already have some of the best available locked in for next season. For the sake of trying to provide a balanced argument, I wanted to create a list of the best free agents still available who may be desirable to the Cardinals and sorted them by their WAR from last season with a value of one or greater.


I do not necessarily agree with acquiring a first baseman as they already have Lance Berkman and Craig who are both capable of playing first as well as a corner outfield position. The Cards also have prospect Matt Adams who most recently played AA ball in 2011 and will likely be promoted to AAA this year, which should allow him to be ready for his MLB debut either later next season or in 2013. Now that Albert is out of the picture, I want Adams to make a clean entry to the Major Leagues as soon as he is ready.

My desire to leave first base open eventually led to a small debate with my girlfriend's brother who feels we should sign Prince Fielder. He noted his first choice would have been Jose Reyes and I would have agreed with him had the Miami Marlins not beat us to the punch.

Eric Seidman from FanGraphs talked about Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Beltran as his preferred free agents. Rollins is the ideal candidate of the three with modest defense at shortstop and has been consistently healthy over his career, but it may be an awkward experience to speak with another Dan Lozano client and the Philadelphia Phillies may want to keep him. Beltran is aging quickly even though he is only 34. He may do well to fill in for Craig, but I would not want to see him in center field. Seidman also contemplates several trade targets in J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez. Any of these guys would be great acquisitions for shortstop, but I am wary to see what would be asked in return.

Michael Barr from RotoHardball speculates the Cardinals should achieve the same number of wins next season even with the loss of Pujols. Berkman shifts to first base, Craig plays right field full-time, and Adam Wainwright returns as the staff ace. He touches upon the same possibilities at shortstop as well as Beltran, but mentions the rumor of shopping Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. If they are able to unload one of them, then they could pursue Roy Oswalt. This is extremely unlikely as both pitchers have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. If it were possible, I would have been a bigger fan of granting Mark Buehrle's wish to come to St. Louis.

Personally, I hope they take an adventurous approach and acquire Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes or an international free agent from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Cespedes is an outfielder who could play center field full-time while Jay fills in for Craig until he returned from the disabled list. If not him then Beltran, Michael Cuddyer, Coco Crisp, or Josh Willingham would be more typical selections who could provide more depth to their outfield.

The more urgent area to fix is their middle infield. The market for second basemen is quite scarce, so it may be wise to bring Nick Punto back for at least another season unless they decide to experiment with Craig or Cuddyer at second. It would be great to see them sign a player like Munenori Kawasaki at shortstop, but I recall reading he only wants to play for the Seattle Mariners with Ichiro Suzuki. Otherwise Rollins, Furcal, or Ronny Cedeno are the only other legitimate choices.

The list of free agent left-handed relief pitchers is ancient, so I hope they decide to trade for somebody or get creative. Perhaps they could convince a left-handed starting pitcher from Japan to convert to the bullpen (Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada), which is unlikely unless they opted to considerably overpay them. If somebody forced me to pick from the free agent pool, I would pick either Darren Oliver or George Sherrill.

I cannot accurately foresee their salaries, especially those supposedly arriving from overseas. The "fantastic" projection is almost certainly overpriced and quite an unrealistic expectation from the Cardinals front office, though it would be quite exciting. I would expect the "realistic" estimate to fall within the $110 million parameters, but it would cause our roster to be aged and brittle. Without further ado here are several variations of the Cardinals 25-man roster: current, fantastic, and realistic.


Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in rose.

Pujols Has Flown the Coop

Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame some day. When that day comes, the St. Louis Cardinals will retire his number and so will the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (formerly known as the Anaheim Angels, formerly known as the California Angels, and formerly known as the Los Angeles Angels).

The Angels signed Pujols to a $254 million contract over 10 years and includes a full no-trade clause. I honestly did not expect it after Albert repeatedly stated in the past his desire to be a Cardinal for life like Stan Musial. The Miami Marlins created some pressure, which made me quite nervous. The Marlins backed down from their previous offers on Wednesday, which relieved my tension and I eventually fell soundly asleep.

Allow me to provide foreshadow by tweaking a memorable quote from Futurama:

"Ooh, the jedis Cardinals fans are going to feel this one."

Albert Pujols at the 2008 All Star Game, via Facebook

I was a little restless in bed Thursday morning and decided to check Twitter only to find the news. I first saw it mentioned by ESPN and SportsCenter, then Twitter exploded with further depressing news.

Bob Nightengale: The #STLCards actually had only the fourth-largest offer to Albert Pujols, behind the #Marlins, #Angels and the mystery team.

Buster Olney: Agent competition always fascinating. Pujols gets $254 million... Just a little over A-rod's $252m. Never a coincidence.

Jenifer Langosch: Albert Pujols is going to miss those guaranteed yearly visits to PNC Park. He has a .376 average, 29 HRs and 85 RBIs in 89 games there.

Of course, unless you were hiding under a rock and only read my blog for some reason, then you know the Angels did not stop there. They also signed former Texas Rangers starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson, to a $77.5 million contract over 5 years, which includes a full no-trade clause over the first two years and partial in the last three. If you were shocked by the Marlins giving $191MM to three players, then the Angels paying two guys $327.5M would have given you a heart attack. It was slightly humorous when I read the Marlins actually had the high offer submitted for both players, yet they decided against them.

ESPN Stats: Angels signed Wilson & Pujols for $327.5M. KC, TB, PIT, SD, CLE, ARI and FLA owed a combined $327.8M to their opening day rosters for 2011.

MLBTR: Albert Pujols Signing Reactions

STL: Fear The Red: The Five Stages of Pujols Leaving

The Cardinal Nation blog: It’s ok. Just don’t insult us, Albert. It was about the money.

Viva El Birdos: The End of an Era: Pujols to Sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Pitchers Hit Eighth: Pujols Signs With Angels, Gets Free Disney Passes!

C70: Devastation

I-70 Baseball: Farewell

stltoday.com: A message for Albert the Machine from Stan the Man

stltoday.com: Bob Gibson on Pujols: 'He should have been a Cardinal for life'

I am not bitter or upset, though I am a little depressed with a now dated Pujols jersey. You would expect I would be desensitized from this behavior as a Pirates fan, but alas, I am not. I actually never owned a baseball jersey until I moved to St. Louis because I did not want to pay for a custom jersey, then have that chosen player leave. So much for that.

I trust this was the best decision for Albert and only wish it would have kept him in a Cardinals uniform. Cardinal nation may be frustrated, sad, angry, or some mixture of the three, but this blogger hopes he does not forget his 11 years in St. Louis because we will not forget him. I will continue dining out at Pujols 5 as long as it remains open and would gladly welcome him back to St. Louis, whether or not he wears Cardinals red.

Further analysis and speculation will come over the next few days.

Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig

Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.

I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:

Let's start Craig at second base.

Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.

Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.

Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B

If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.

John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.

The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.

Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.

Plan B: Beyond Pujols

I previously asked how much Albert Pujols was worth. Based upon my results, his next contract should range between $17 and $35 million per year. That's an average possibility of $26 million per year. Whether or not you believe he deserves the amount he receives does not matter at this time because it is inevitable. You can blame the lack of a salary cap, but that is something to debate on another day.

The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?

Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.

Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.

In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."

FanGraphs and Viva El Birdos speculates a lineup without Albert Pujols

I agree with Larry's opinions, especially regarding his final statement. The free agent market is weak this offseason and the money saved from not signing Albert could be better spent on the possibility of a more talented crop of free agents next year. Failure to sign Albert would be a devastating loss to the fans of Cardinal nation, but they should not feel obligated to sign a free agent just for the sake of signing somebody.

If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.

I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.

What is Pujols Worth?

Albert Pujols is a free agent. As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, hearing that may be difficult to swallow, but I finally came to the realization he may not be back next season after hearing he will be visiting with the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.

Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.

Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.

Albert Pujols (red/blue) versus CC Sabathia (navy/white)

Pujols has been an outstanding player ever since he first appeared in the Majors in 2001 and has been superior to Sabathia every season aside from 2011. He has performed fairly consistently over the course of his entire career, though you can see a steep decline since 2009 (since 2008 if you really want to argue a difference of WAR from 9.1 to 9.0 is really a decline).

He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.

So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.

Albert Pujols WAR Projections (Max/Min)

Albert Pujols Salary Projections (Max/Min)

Year	$/Win	Max WAR	Max Value	Min WAR	Min Value
2012	5.00	8.0	$40.00	5.1	$25.50
2013	5.25	7.5	$39.38	4.6	$25.50
2014	5.51	7.0	$38.59	4.1	$24.15
2015	5.79	6.5	$37.62	3.6	$22.60
2016	6.08	6.0	$36.47	3.1	$18.84
2017	6.38	5.5	$35.10	2.6	$16.59
2018	6.70	5.0	$33.50	2.1	$14.07
2019	7.04	4.5	$31.66	1.6	$11.26
2020	7.39	4.0	$29.55	1.1	$8.13
2021	7.76	3.5	$27.15	0.6	$4.65
-	-	57.5	$349.01	28.5	$166.63

A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.

I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.

What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."

Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert

Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score

Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.

The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.

Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.

Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.

Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?

Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate

I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.

As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.

I understand Albert is probably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.

Hibernation

Autumn has its stranglehold upon the trees, the temperature is dropping, and my muscles feel stiff. Baseball season is officially over.

I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.

This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.

In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.

Why so glum?

Offseason Entertainment:
 MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
 Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
 ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
 Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
 World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
 Baseball Mogul 2012: here.

Personal Offseason Projects:
 Pirates Payroll Speculation
 Cardinals Payroll Speculation
 Payroll Win Efficiency
 Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
 Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
 League Realignment Proposal
 League Expansion Proposal
 Playoff Expansion Proposal

Correction:
 The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.

Surreal, Unreal

Yesterday was the St. Louis Cardinals' 2011 World Series celebration. My girlfriend, Linda, and I were in queue to get our tickets on Saturday afternoon at 2:15 pm, then finally bought two at 2:50 pm. Luckily they did not sell out before then, otherwise we would have missed an incredible experience.

Surreal.

We arrived at 1:30 pm, keep in mind the parade did not start until 4. After walking along the parade route for a little while, we could not find any openings next to the railing. We were too late for a front row spot, so we decided to sit on a brick wall in front of some bushes. Not only did it give us a place to sit down over the next two hours while we waited for the celebration to begin, but it allowed us to overlook the enormous sea of red that laid between us and the parade route.

Our spot on the parade route, 1:45 pm

Panorama from our spot on the parade route, 4:00 pm

Unfortunately, the first few photos from the parade were a little blurry, but switching my camera from landscape to sports mode seemed to work fairly well. I did my best to caption each photo based the name on the vehicle or if I could recognize them. Please correct me if I was wrong anywhere.


Less than 24 hours after Tony La Russa made his speech in Busch Stadium, he announced his retirement. I had suspected TLR would hold off on his own contract until he saw where Albert Pujols would land. I was not expecting the announcement at all and now the Cards have an opening for their manager position in 2012.

Unreal.

I read many posts and news articles over the course of the 2011 season questioning if he should retire. Some suggested he should have retired after the 2006 season to finish on top. He showed all his disbelievers by not only exiting on top, but earning his third World Series championship of his managerial career in the most dramatic fashion imaginable.

La Russa managed the Chicago White Sox from 1979 to 1986, the Oakland Athletics from 1986 to 1995, and the St. Louis Cardinals from 1996 to 2011. He ends his managerial career with 2,728 wins (3rd all-time), 2,365 losses, and a .536 winning percentage. He earned three AL Pennants and one World Series title with the A's, three NL Pennants and two World Series titles with the Cardinals, and will almost certainly be inducted to the Hall of Fame.

Congratulations, Tony.
Thank you, from this blog writer and the rest of Cardinal Nation.

St. Louis Cardinals Survival Guide

Lessons to learn from playing the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

1) Get on base however you can. "Walks are good."

2) Stop making mistakes. "Errors are bad, especially when the game is on the line."

3) Fly balls are great when they travel 400 feet. "Home runs are good. They score runs."

4) No free passes. "Walks are bad. Seven walks in one game is terrible."

5a) Stop stranding runners. "Every run counts."

5b) Listen to the manager. "Albert is great, but he is not a player-manager."

5c) Can you hear the manager? "Warm up Motte. I said, 'MOTTE!'"

Busch Stadium before Game 6, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Good luck tonight, fellas.

Pujols Best Performance in Cardinals Playoff History

Pip over at Fungoes posted a few days ago noting the best performances by Cardinals players in the playoffs and the addition of three players from this year's NLDS series: Ryan Theriot and Albert Pujols in game 3, then David Freese in game 4.

After tonight's game in Milwaukee, I am certain he will likely expand on this thought. The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-3 to tie the NLCS 1-1. Pujols recorded four hits (three doubles and a home run) over five at bats and scored three times while knocking in five.

8.0 Runs Created. Amazing.

It was a tremendous performance, which actually eclipsed his performance on Tuesday (6.0) and breaks the previous record of 7.2 set by Larry Walker in 2004.

See you in St. Louis for game 3 on Wednesday.

Visual Analysis

Most of us understand statistics a little easier when provided a visual example, such as a chart or graph. Kevin Dame, a writer, visual designer, and infographics editor with SB Nation, takes it to creative extremes.


I finally decided to renounce my subscription to SB Nation, but had to stay connected with Mr. Dame's section. I hope you appreciate his visual analysis as much as I do. I have already provided an example of his once this week, but here are two more posted recently that deserves praise:

Comparing Brewers And Cardinals Pitching

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Albert vs. Prince

Subscribe and/or bookmark Kevin Dame.

NLCS: Cardinals vs. Brewers

Kevin Dame has been creatively blogging using Wordle at SB Nation, so I thought I would try it out.

Cardinals/Brewers, NLCS Wordle

Pretty cool, huh?

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at Miller Park. The Cardinals plan to send Jaime Garcia to the mound, while the Brewers intend to use Zack Greinke. Garcia owns a 1.93 ERA with one win and one no-decision after two starts this year against the Brewers. Greinke is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA against the Cardinals in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 201 SO)

Honestly, we can look at pitching lines all day long, but it may not matter because the most noticeable statistical difference lies in their records at home and away.

Milwaukee Brewers: 96-66 (.593)

Home: 57-24 (.704)

Away: 39-42 (.481)

St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (.556)

Home: 45-36 (.556)

Away: 45-36 (.556)

The Brewers performed extremely well at home in Miller Park during the regular season, yet they actually had a losing record while on the road. They were, of course, the only playoff team to do so. Meanwhile the Cardinals were very consistent maintaining identical records while at home and away. These habits seem to continue thus far while both teams competed in their divisional series.

Milwaukee Brewers: 3-2

Home: 3-0

Away: 0-2

St. Louis Cardinals: 3-2

Home: 1-1

Away: 2-1

The Cardinals and Brewers split their record during the season (9-9), but the Cards did manage to record a sweep in Milwaukee. It would be wise for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to provide top-notch performances in this series as this may be the All Star first basemen's last opportunity to increase their upcoming free agency values.

Given all this information, I would have to say the Cards have a small advantage or at least an equal chance to take the NLCS from the Brewers again a la 1982 style.

Pujols Streak Recap

The regular season is over and the Cardinals beat the Astros 8-0 to finish with a record of 90-72, which earns them the wild card and sends them to playoffs.

This post was originally written to explain how the Cards would face the Atlanta Braves tomorrow in a one game playoff to decide who would take the wild card slot, but the Braves continued their devastating collapse after blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies and eventually lost after 13 innings, 4-3. I wasn't prepared for this, so all I can say is shut up and enjoy it.

Let's talk about Albert Pujols. If you read my post on September 16th, then you may remember my prediction regarding Albert Pujols' streak. How did he do compared to my weighted prediction?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
2011 Total	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	61	58	0.366	0.541	0.906	0.2988
Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.2965
Difference +/-	+9	+1	+4	+1	0	- 2	- 4	- 4	+1	- 0.004	- 0.009	- 0.013	+0.0023

Sigh. So close, but his streak of 100 runs batted in and 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 ends at 10 consecutive seasons. Let's break it down to see what went wrong and what went right.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 16, 2011	4	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.372	0.549	0.921	0.301
Sep 17, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.372	0.546	0.918	0.301
Sep 18, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.371	0.550	0.921	0.300
Sep 19, 2011	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.369	0.548	0.918	0.299
Series Total	17	3	7	1	0	1	3	2	3	0.474	0.647	1.121	0.412
Result per AB	1	0.18	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.12	0.18
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 20, 2011	5	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.373	0.551	0.924	0.304
Sep 21, 2011	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.374	0.552	0.926	0.305
Sep 22, 2011	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.372	0.554	0.927	0.304
Series Total	14	5	7	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.786	1.286	0.500
Result per AB	1	0.36	0.50	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.00
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 23, 2011	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.372	0.554	0.926	0.304
Sep 24, 2011	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.302
Sep 25, 2011	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.369	0.547	0.916	0.300
Series Total	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.182	0.348	0.091
Result per AB	1	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.09
Prediction per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 26, 2011	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.369	0.548	0.916	0.301
Sep 27, 2011	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.367	0.544	0.910	0.300
Sep 28, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.366	0.542	0.908	0.299
Series Total	16	3	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.563	0.250
Result per AB	1	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.13
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Some of the differences from the norm are subtle, others are obvious. Albert performed extremely well versus the Phillies and Mets, average against the Astros, and terrible against the Cubs. He missed my home run prediction by two, which could have nudged his RBI total over 100. He managed to record 19 hits (two more than my previous estimate), but also accumulated nine more at bats.

It is possible Albert may have been overexerting himself to push for the .300 mark, which caused him to become less patient at the plate. I attended the game on the 25th in St. Louis and noticed him swinging at the first pitch on a couple occasions. This could explain the low walk count and more at bats than usual.

Regardless of this almost human-like season, Albert still recorded a season which will still receive votes for the National League MVP. Now let's think about October!