Friday, September 16, 2011

Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
March 31, 2011 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
April 31, 2011 106 21 26 1 0 7 18 10 11 0.305 0.453 0.758 0.245
This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
May 23, 2011 190 30 51 5 0 8 26 20 20 0.340 0.421 0.761 0.268
Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
June 19, 2011 280 52 78 11 0 17 45 32 25 0.355 0.500 0.855 0.279
Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
July 12, 2011 300 54 84 12 0 18 50 35 27 0.357 0.500 0.857 0.280
The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
August 11, 2011 412 78 117 21 0 28 72 39 41 0.348 0.539 0.887 0.284
Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
September 16, 2011 521 94 154 25 0 35 93 58 52 0.366 0.545 0.911 0.296
Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?


The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston.
First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies: 248 AB / 64 games = 3.875 AB/g
Mets: 266 AB / 68 games = 3.912 AB/g
Cubs: 621 AB / 171 games = 3.632 AB/g
Astros: 639 AB / 174 games = 3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Phillies 248 40 67 14 1 12 42 31 25 0.350 0.480 0.829 0.270
Citizens Bank 89 20 29 5 0 9 21 10 7 0.382 0.685 1.068 0.326
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.405 0.610 1.015 0.320

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Mets 266 49 80 21 0 20 61 39 35 0.391 0.605 0.996 0.301
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.429 0.616 1.045 0.331

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Cubs 621 124 190 34 2 53 135 102 68 0.408 0.623 1.032 0.306
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.428 0.617 1.046 0.330

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Astros 639 120 200 38 2 42 111 95 67 0.405 0.576 0.981 0.313
Minute Maid 341 66 107 15 2 24 49 43 40 0.393 0.581 0.973 0.314
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.407 0.608 1.015 0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.30 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.380 0.580 0.960 0.302
Mets AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.426 0.612 1.039 0.326
Cubs AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.18 0.10 0.423 0.618 1.041 0.322
Astros AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.31 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.398 0.583 0.980 0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction 570 104 170 28 0 38 103 66 57 0.371 0.551 0.922 0.298














Custom Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction  570 104 169 28 0 39 103 65 57 0.370 0.550 0.919 0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

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