Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
March 31, 2011	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
April 31, 2011	106	21	26	1	0	7	18	10	11	0.305	0.453	0.758	0.245

This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
May 23, 2011	190	30	51	5	0	8	26	20	20	0.340	0.421	0.761	0.268

Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
June 19, 2011	280	52	78	11	0	17	45	32	25	0.355	0.500	0.855	0.279

Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
July 12, 2011	300	54	84	12	0	18	50	35	27	0.357	0.500	0.857	0.280

The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
August 11, 2011	412	78	117	21	0	28	72	39	41	0.348	0.539	0.887	0.284

Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
September 16, 2011	521	94	154	25	0	35	93	58	52	0.366	0.545	0.911	0.296

Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?

The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston. First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies:	248 AB / 64 games =	3.875 AB/g
Mets:	266 AB / 68 games =	3.912 AB/g
Cubs:	621 AB / 171 games =	3.632 AB/g
Astros:	639 AB / 174 games =	3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Phillies	248	40	67	14	1	12	42	31	25	0.350	0.480	0.829	0.270
Citizens Bank	89	20	29	5	0	9	21	10	7	0.382	0.685	1.068	0.326
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.14	0.12	0.405	0.610	1.015	0.320

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Mets	266	49	80	21	0	20	61	39	35	0.391	0.605	0.996	0.301
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.429	0.616	1.045	0.331

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Cubs	621	124	190	34	2	53	135	102	68	0.408	0.623	1.032	0.306
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.428	0.617	1.046	0.330

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Astros	639	120	200	38	2	42	111	95	67	0.405	0.576	0.981	0.313
Minute Maid	341	66	107	15	2	24	49	43	40	0.393	0.581	0.973	0.314
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.407	0.608	1.015	0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	170	28	0	38	103	66	57	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.298
Custom Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

It's well within the Machine's reach. Perhaps this would be a more frightening thought if asked earlier in the season.