I did something today I told myself I would never do...
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Baseball analysis from a Bucco fan, Cards fan & fantasy baseball enthusiast.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
I invite anyone who participated in MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediciton Contest to share their predictions. All choices are now locked, so I wanted to share mine with the world.
I came close when I tried to predict the outcome of the World Series and guess what team would win each game, but it was only a 1 in 70 chance, so I'm not expecting much from this contest. Why? If you weigh all the possibilities equally, then there are 1,600 options or a 0.0625% chance of choosing all 50 selections correctly. Granted, it is highly unlikely a player like Albert Pujols will sign with the Pirates, Prince Fielder will retire, or Jose Reyes will go to Japan.
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| My MLBTR Free Agent Predictions |
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert
Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.
Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.
The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.
The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.
MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.
Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?
I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.
As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.
I understand Albert isprobably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.
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| Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score |
The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.
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| Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011 |
The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.
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| Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts |
MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.
Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?
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| Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate |
I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.
As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.
I understand Albert is
Pirates Payroll Speculation
The Pittsburgh Pirates have less than four hours before the surge of free agent signings should begin. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Pirates possibilities on October 19th, so the information is now slightly dated. The team has a few holes to fill and many areas which they could improve upon after declining club options for Chris Snyder, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno.
I gathered the attendance and payroll data from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Buccos attracted more fans this year than they have in the last five years and are reportedly expected to enter 2012 with a payroll above $50 million. This is moderately encouraging as this would be the most they have dedicated to their players' payroll since 2003. I would be more excited if there were more options available on the upcoming free agent market or trading table.
MLB Depth Charts reports the Pirates should be looking for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, corner outfielder, and starting pitcher. I mostly agree with them, but think we have enough depth in the outfield. I would prefer a backup third baseman in case Alvarez does not recover from his sophomore slump. The amount of money the Pirates have to throw around this offseason depends upon where you read. Bucs Dugout predicts a minimum of $33.4 million is already allotted to the current roster, Pirates Prospects suggests $30.16 million, and Raise the Jolly Roger estimates $25 million. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $31.99 million.
This means the Pirates management has a little bit of wiggle room to upgrade at least two positions, hopefully four. If the Buccos maintain a payroll above $50 million, then that leaves $18 million or more for the offseason. Let's see what's available and what they can do.
First and foremost, the likelihood of the Pirates signing a caliber player like Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, or C.J. Wilson is extremely unlikely unless they accepted payment in Heinz ketchup or Yuengling. It is also fairly unlikely they will surrender a first round draft pick for a type A free agent.
Doumit could be offered arbitration, though any of my other three suggestions would be a nice change. Sure, his offensive numbers may have been more impressive overall, but he has not been a full-time catcher since 2008 and his eyes creep me out. Any one of these options could cost somewhere around $3 to $8 million.
The Pirates acknowledged their lineup was power deficient in 2011, so it would be wise to select a big bat to play first base. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer, and Pujols are all type A free agents, which should make the other three choices more available. The Chicago Cubs may not let Carlos Pena go if they are unable to sign a replacement for themselves. I would expect the Pirates to devote $6 to 9 million to first base.
Cedeno is gone. If the Pirates offer him arbitration, then it will probably cost them more than his original $3 million club option. If you disregard Jimmy Rollins and Reyes, then everyone but Nick Punto are type B free agents and should cost anywhere from $3 to $10 million.
The Buccos currently have a starting rotation full of right handers with the loss of Maholm, so picking up a lefty for next year is vital. Signing Wilson is extremely unlikely, but one can dream. Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson would be great additions to an otherwise inexperienced staff, but both are type B free agents and will probably be on the expensive side, possibly $8 to $15 million. Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis would be interesting options, hopefully on the more affordable side, maybe $4 to $8 million.
In my fantasy world, the Pirates would acquire Kelly Shoppach, Punto, and Capuano while resigning Lee. The signings would cost the organization $20 million next year, disregarding the possibility of multi-year contracts, for a total payroll of approximately $52 million.
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| Pirates Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011 |
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| Pirates Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts |
This means the Pirates management has a little bit of wiggle room to upgrade at least two positions, hopefully four. If the Buccos maintain a payroll above $50 million, then that leaves $18 million or more for the offseason. Let's see what's available and what they can do.
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| Free Agent Targets: Catcher |
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| Free Agent Targets: First Base |
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| Free Agent Targets: Shortstop |
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| Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitcher |
Doumit could be offered arbitration, though any of my other three suggestions would be a nice change. Sure, his offensive numbers may have been more impressive overall, but he has not been a full-time catcher since 2008 and his eyes creep me out. Any one of these options could cost somewhere around $3 to $8 million.
The Pirates acknowledged their lineup was power deficient in 2011, so it would be wise to select a big bat to play first base. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer, and Pujols are all type A free agents, which should make the other three choices more available. The Chicago Cubs may not let Carlos Pena go if they are unable to sign a replacement for themselves. I would expect the Pirates to devote $6 to 9 million to first base.
Cedeno is gone. If the Pirates offer him arbitration, then it will probably cost them more than his original $3 million club option. If you disregard Jimmy Rollins and Reyes, then everyone but Nick Punto are type B free agents and should cost anywhere from $3 to $10 million.
The Buccos currently have a starting rotation full of right handers with the loss of Maholm, so picking up a lefty for next year is vital. Signing Wilson is extremely unlikely, but one can dream. Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson would be great additions to an otherwise inexperienced staff, but both are type B free agents and will probably be on the expensive side, possibly $8 to $15 million. Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis would be interesting options, hopefully on the more affordable side, maybe $4 to $8 million.
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| Pirates 2012 Payroll Estimate |
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Hibernation
Autumn has its stranglehold upon the trees, the temperature is dropping, and my muscles feel stiff. Baseball season is officially over.
I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.
This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.
In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.
Why so glum?
Offseason Entertainment:
MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
Baseball Mogul 2012: here.
Personal Offseason Projects:
Pirates Payroll Speculation
Cardinals Payroll Speculation
Payroll Win Efficiency
Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
League Realignment Proposal
League Expansion Proposal
Playoff Expansion Proposal
Correction:
The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.
I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.
This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.
In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.
Why so glum?
Offseason Entertainment:
MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
Baseball Mogul 2012: here.
Personal Offseason Projects:
Pirates Payroll Speculation
Cardinals Payroll Speculation
Payroll Win Efficiency
Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
League Realignment Proposal
League Expansion Proposal
Playoff Expansion Proposal
Correction:
The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.
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