Cards Take the Lead

The St. Louis Cardinals are now the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series after they defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in game three. The Cards now lead the series 2-1 and Beyond the Box Score predicts they have a 65.1% chance to take the NLCS.

Beyond the Box Score

Yovani Gallardo allowed the first five Cardinals batters on base before finally recording an out. The Cards scored four runs before their lineup batted around and the first inning finally ended. Lucky for the Brewers, Chris Carpenter was not sharp either and allowed three earned runs over five innings.

Both teams employed their bullpens past the fifth inning, which led to near-perfect results. The Cardinals called upon four relievers and did not allow a base runner, while the Brewers allowed only one hit and one walk with the use of three relievers.

The Cards essentially won the game after abusing Gallardo in the first inning. Will they keep rolling with their winning ways?

Game 4

Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 111 SO)

vs.

Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 134 SO)

Game four seems like a coin flip. Lohse and Wolf are both fine pitchers, but they are quite inconsistent with Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde streaks. So what will we see tonight? A well crafted performance by a professor or an ugly monster?

2006 World Series Rematch Unlikely

The gentlemen at Beyond the Box Score have developed a postseason simulator, which deems a rematch between the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals only a 5.3% possibility. The Texas Rangers are the large favorite to win the World Series, as per their research.

Beyond the Box Score

I didn't live in St. Louis in 2006, nor did I have any real connection to the Cardinals at the time besides "that other team in the NL Central who beats the Pirates like everyone else." If I remember correctly, it was this World Series match up that lured me back to becoming a hardcore baseball fan. I was amazed to see the Detroit Tigers contending for their chance to win it all after losing a franchise record 119 games only three years prior.

Jim Leyland has a tendency to make heroes out of young, scrappy players. Just look at the 1990-92 Pirates, '97 Marlins, 2006 and '11 Tigers. Each team was a winner, in their own respect. I find it hard to believe he has only one World Series title and two Pennants on his managerial resume.

The Tigers accumulated a 12 game winning streak in September against several of their AL Central rivals, which distanced them from their challengers, ensured them a division title, and earned them a playoff spot. They were supported throughout the season by the extraordinary Justin Verlander, who is a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, and Miguel Cabrera, who delivered another MVP caliber season.

Both were stellar in the regular season, but their postseason performances have been average at best. Verlander was part of the Tigers organization in 2006 and has only recorded one quality start in his postseason career. Cabrera's batting average is down and his strikeout rate is up, but the Rangers and Yankees have opted to award him first base more often than not.

2011 Regular Season

Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 250 SO)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 SO)

Wilson quietly put up very respectable numbers behind all the hype surrounding Verlander in the American League. He also has three quality starts in his postseason career, though they all came last year. Otherwise, he looks quite similar to Verlander.

Postseason Stats

Justin Verlander (2-3, 5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10.4 SO/9)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (1-3, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.7 SO/9)

Will either starting pitcher produce a quality start for their team?

Will the bullpen get to work early again?

Game 5 starts in Detroit at 4:19 ET. The Texas Rangers lead the series 3-1, so this is a do-or-die situation for the Tigers.

(Sidenote: Could they have chosen a stranger starting game time?)

Pujols Best Performance in Cardinals Playoff History

Pip over at Fungoes posted a few days ago noting the best performances by Cardinals players in the playoffs and the addition of three players from this year's NLDS series: Ryan Theriot and Albert Pujols in game 3, then David Freese in game 4.

After tonight's game in Milwaukee, I am certain he will likely expand on this thought. The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-3 to tie the NLCS 1-1. Pujols recorded four hits (three doubles and a home run) over five at bats and scored three times while knocking in five.

8.0 Runs Created. Amazing.

It was a tremendous performance, which actually eclipsed his performance on Tuesday (6.0) and breaks the previous record of 7.2 set by Larry Walker in 2004.

See you in St. Louis for game 3 on Wednesday.

Visual Analysis

Most of us understand statistics a little easier when provided a visual example, such as a chart or graph. Kevin Dame, a writer, visual designer, and infographics editor with SB Nation, takes it to creative extremes.


I finally decided to renounce my subscription to SB Nation, but had to stay connected with Mr. Dame's section. I hope you appreciate his visual analysis as much as I do. I have already provided an example of his once this week, but here are two more posted recently that deserves praise:

Comparing Brewers And Cardinals Pitching

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Albert vs. Prince

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NLCS: Cardinals vs. Brewers

Kevin Dame has been creatively blogging using Wordle at SB Nation, so I thought I would try it out.

Cardinals/Brewers, NLCS Wordle

Pretty cool, huh?

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at Miller Park. The Cardinals plan to send Jaime Garcia to the mound, while the Brewers intend to use Zack Greinke. Garcia owns a 1.93 ERA with one win and one no-decision after two starts this year against the Brewers. Greinke is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA against the Cardinals in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 201 SO)

Honestly, we can look at pitching lines all day long, but it may not matter because the most noticeable statistical difference lies in their records at home and away.

Milwaukee Brewers: 96-66 (.593)

Home: 57-24 (.704)

Away: 39-42 (.481)

St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (.556)

Home: 45-36 (.556)

Away: 45-36 (.556)

The Brewers performed extremely well at home in Miller Park during the regular season, yet they actually had a losing record while on the road. They were, of course, the only playoff team to do so. Meanwhile the Cardinals were very consistent maintaining identical records while at home and away. These habits seem to continue thus far while both teams competed in their divisional series.

Milwaukee Brewers: 3-2

Home: 3-0

Away: 0-2

St. Louis Cardinals: 3-2

Home: 1-1

Away: 2-1

The Cardinals and Brewers split their record during the season (9-9), but the Cards did manage to record a sweep in Milwaukee. It would be wise for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to provide top-notch performances in this series as this may be the All Star first basemen's last opportunity to increase their upcoming free agency values.

Given all this information, I would have to say the Cards have a small advantage or at least an equal chance to take the NLCS from the Brewers again a la 1982 style.