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Baseball analysis from a Bucco fan, Cards fan & fantasy baseball enthusiast.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Rangers Outplay Cardinals, Tie Series
No happy flight to Arlington.
The St. Louis Cardinals were defeated by the Texas Rangers 2-1 to tie the series at one apiece and now heads to Arlington, Texas for game three.
I applaud Jaime Garcia for pitching his best game this postseason (7.0 IP, 7 SO, 3 H, 1 BB) and Allen Craig delivered another RBI single for the second night in a row. He seriously needs to play full-time next season.
Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus were amazing on the field, vacuuming every ball that came near them. I found myself yelling at the television screen on several occasions in frustrated disbelief and admiration.
"Yeah! Nice hit! ... Wait, what?! ... Wow." Something along those lines.
The Cards were leading 1-0 into the ninth inning, but the Rangers did everything they could to stay alive and win. Tony La Russa called upon his "not-closer," Jason Motte, who had been superb in September and throughout the postseason.
Kinsler and Andrus had caused me grief throughout the night, so it seems appropriate it was they who scored the tying and go-ahead runs before the inning ended. Neftali Feliz throws even harder than Motte, which is hard to fathom, so making contact was nigh improbable for the Cardinals final batters.
Source: FanGraphs
The only players on the Cards offense who attained a positive WPA were Craig, Yadier Molina, and Garcia. Garcia is pretty good for a pitcher, but give me a break. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday were both hitless.
The weekend forecast in Texas ranges from a high of 82°F and low of 59°F, so hopefully the offense warms up.
The St. Louis Cardinals were defeated by the Texas Rangers 2-1 to tie the series at one apiece and now heads to Arlington, Texas for game three.
I applaud Jaime Garcia for pitching his best game this postseason (7.0 IP, 7 SO, 3 H, 1 BB) and Allen Craig delivered another RBI single for the second night in a row. He seriously needs to play full-time next season.
Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus were amazing on the field, vacuuming every ball that came near them. I found myself yelling at the television screen on several occasions in frustrated disbelief and admiration.
"Yeah! Nice hit! ... Wait, what?! ... Wow." Something along those lines.
The Cards were leading 1-0 into the ninth inning, but the Rangers did everything they could to stay alive and win. Tony La Russa called upon his "not-closer," Jason Motte, who had been superb in September and throughout the postseason.
Kinsler and Andrus had caused me grief throughout the night, so it seems appropriate it was they who scored the tying and go-ahead runs before the inning ended. Neftali Feliz throws even harder than Motte, which is hard to fathom, so making contact was nigh improbable for the Cardinals final batters.
Source: FanGraphs
The only players on the Cards offense who attained a positive WPA were Craig, Yadier Molina, and Garcia. Garcia is pretty good for a pitcher, but give me a break. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday were both hitless.
The weekend forecast in Texas ranges from a high of 82°F and low of 59°F, so hopefully the offense warms up.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Unexpected Underdogs
I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.
National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.
National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.
World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.
Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.
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| Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score |
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| Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score |
Cards, Carpenter Win Game One
The St. Louis Cardinals took game one over the Texas Rangers with a 3-2 victory thanks to quality pitching from Chris Carpenter, a timely pinch hit by Allen Craig, and the Cards bullpen. Craig hit an RBI single in the sixth inning to break a tie, which was all the Cardinals needed to win.
Carp pitched six solid innings and kept the Rangers in check aside from a Mike Napoli home run in the fifth inning. It was the Cardinals first quality start since Carpenter shut out the Phillies on Friday, October 7th. It was a low scoring game, but not quite a pitcher's duel as C.J. Wilson allowed four hits and six walks over 5.2 innings pitched. Not quite the performance you would expect from an ace starting pitcher on the verge of free agency.
Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 169 SO)
Garcia was upset when he was pulled early in his last start, so I hope he avoids pitching himself into a corner tonight. Game two airs tonight on FOX at 7:05 PM CT. A win tonight would ensure another happy flight to Texas.
Carp pitched six solid innings and kept the Rangers in check aside from a Mike Napoli home run in the fifth inning. It was the Cardinals first quality start since Carpenter shut out the Phillies on Friday, October 7th. It was a low scoring game, but not quite a pitcher's duel as C.J. Wilson allowed four hits and six walks over 5.2 innings pitched. Not quite the performance you would expect from an ace starting pitcher on the verge of free agency.
Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 169 SO)
Garcia was upset when he was pulled early in his last start, so I hope he avoids pitching himself into a corner tonight. Game two airs tonight on FOX at 7:05 PM CT. A win tonight would ensure another happy flight to Texas.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
2011 World Series Game One
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Texas Rangers tonight at Busch Stadium for game one of the World Series. Tune in and watch it on FOX at 7:05 PM CT.
Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 191 SO)
vs.
C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 SO)
Don't let Carp's record mislead you. He has performed quite well this year for the Cards, better than any one else on their pitching staff, and if anyone should beat them, it's him. Yesterday's post spoke of Paul Maholm and his lack of run support, which was also true for Carpenter. He had the 25th worst run support out of all starting pitchers in baseball with 150 innings pitched or more, which is a depressing fact considering he had the National League's best offense behind him in the Cardinals. They averaged 4.70 runs per game over the year, but only 3.91 with him on the mound. His BABIP rose to .312, which would account for some bad luck on defense as well.
I like seeing home runs as much as the next baseball fan, but I really hope there will be more stellar pitching in this series. The Cards certainly appear outmatched, but they should have a chance if they can tame the Rangers offense and keep anything Nelson Cruz hits inside of the ballpark. I predicted the Cardinals will win in six games on my previous blog post.
Rather than risk saying anything else that has already been said or repeat that which I read from other blogs, I want to share with you several of the best blog posts I have read over the last few days. I highly recommend them and hope you subscribe.
Beyond the Box Score
C70 at the Bat
Kevin Dame @ SBN
Viva El Birdos
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