Rangers Still WS Favorites, Game 3

The Texas Rangers proved they will not go quietly into the night when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals and tied the series 1-1. The Rangers were favorites to win the World Series when they entered game one, marginal favorites in game two, and favorites again in game three. Beyond the Box Score shows their likelihood to win the World Series has bounced back to their initial level before the series began.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series, Beyond the Box Score

Game three will be hosted in Arlington tonight, but will the Cardinals manage to win any of the three games in Texas? Will the series come back to Busch Stadium?

Maybe I'm thinking too far in the future. Let's just concentrate on tonight.

K. Lohse vs. M. Harrison, 2011 regular season, Fangraphs

Kyle Lohse and Matt Harrison looks almost identical side-by-side. Lohse is a little older and his BABIP indicates a little luck. Without the luck, it shows Harrison has been the better pitcher this year, but only marginally.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching 2011

Texas Rangers Pitching 2011

Both pitching staffs were comparable in the regular season with the Rangers recording slightly more strikeouts and walks than the Cardinals. Their postseason numbers have been nearly identical thus far, but their World Series statistics are slightly off. Both teams have not been allowing as many runs as usual. The Cards have been striking out batters more often and walking them less often, while the Rangers had the opposite trend.

Each team has scored only four runs over the first two games. That is only an average of two runs per game. Everyone expects the offense to pick up in Texas with the hitter friendly ballpark and warmer temperatures. The pitching seemed so unsatisfactory in the Championship series, yet both teams have recorded amazing numbers overall. The law of averages show it should not last.

After all, it's the law. But who will break the law first, and when?

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Rangers Outplay Cardinals, Tie Series

No happy flight to Arlington.

The St. Louis Cardinals were defeated by the Texas Rangers 2-1 to tie the series at one apiece and now heads to Arlington, Texas for game three.

I applaud Jaime Garcia for pitching his best game this postseason (7.0 IP, 7 SO, 3 H, 1 BB) and Allen Craig delivered another RBI single for the second night in a row. He seriously needs to play full-time next season.

Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus were amazing on the field, vacuuming every ball that came near them. I found myself yelling at the television screen on several occasions in frustrated disbelief and admiration.

"Yeah! Nice hit! ... Wait, what?! ... Wow." Something along those lines.

The Cards were leading 1-0 into the ninth inning, but the Rangers did everything they could to stay alive and win. Tony La Russa called upon his "not-closer," Jason Motte, who had been superb in September and throughout the postseason.

Kinsler and Andrus had caused me grief throughout the night, so it seems appropriate it was they who scored the tying and go-ahead runs before the inning ended. Neftali Feliz throws even harder than Motte, which is hard to fathom, so making contact was nigh improbable for the Cardinals final batters.



Source: FanGraphs

The only players on the Cards offense who attained a positive WPA were Craig, Yadier Molina, and Garcia. Garcia is pretty good for a pitcher, but give me a break. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday were both hitless.

The weekend forecast in Texas ranges from a high of 82°F and low of 59°F, so hopefully the offense warms up.

Unexpected Underdogs

I was perusing Coolstandings and noticed their playoff predictions were incredibly accurate. Their calculations correctly predicted almost every series outcome thus far aside from the ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. They predicted the correct number of games, but the winner was incorrect. Their only other major miscalculation has been with the St. Louis Cardinals.

National League Divisional Series
Initial prediction: Philadelphia in 4.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5.

National League Championship Series
Initial prediction: Milwaukee in 6.
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 6.

World Series
Initial prediction: Texas in 6.
Currently: St. Louis 1-0.
Actual outcome: To be determined.

Beyond the Box Score favored the Rangers in similar fashion, but their calculations made a big swing in the Card's favor in light of their victory Wednesday night. Statistically, the Rangers originally were the favorite to win with a 72.2% chance and now their likelihood of winning is down to 56.8%, closer to a coin toss.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, Beyond the Box Score

Current Likelihood of World Series Outcomes, Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals were not expected to earn the Wild Card slot and reach the postseason, but they did. They were not expected to beat the Phillies, nor the Brewers, but they did. They are still not expected to win the World Series versus the Rangers. How long will their tear continue and, if it does, how long will it take non-believers to accept them as a threat?

Cards, Carpenter Win Game One

The St. Louis Cardinals took game one over the Texas Rangers with a 3-2 victory thanks to quality pitching from Chris Carpenter, a timely pinch hit by Allen Craig, and the Cards bullpen. Craig hit an RBI single in the sixth inning to break a tie, which was all the Cardinals needed to win.

Carp pitched six solid innings and kept the Rangers in check aside from a Mike Napoli home run in the fifth inning. It was the Cardinals first quality start since Carpenter shut out the Phillies on Friday, October 7th. It was a low scoring game, but not quite a pitcher's duel as C.J. Wilson allowed four hits and six walks over 5.2 innings pitched. Not quite the performance you would expect from an ace starting pitcher on the verge of free agency.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 169 SO)

Garcia was upset when he was pulled early in his last start, so I hope he avoids pitching himself into a corner tonight. Game two airs tonight on FOX at 7:05 PM CT. A win tonight would ensure another happy flight to Texas.