The Miami Marlins and Lucrative Spending

I preemptively answered this question asked by my sister's boyfriend regarding the Miami Marlins on Monday:

Hey Ryan,
I wanted to get your thoughts on the Marlin's new acquisitions in Jose Reyes and Heath Bell.

Hi Neil,
I think Reyes will be a good pick as long as he stays healthy and Hanley Ramirez actually agrees to shift to third. Bell is still one of the better closers, but he's on the decline. Their offense/defense looks good now, but pitching is still a major question mark. Who knows how much cash they have left now, if any.

They must still have a wad left in the wallet as they apparently raised their offer to Pujols. Why him and not Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, or C.J. Wilson is beyond me.

I normally do not cover the Marlins, but I wanted to make an educated response when I was asked about their latest developments. This normally would not be an issue, but I was frustrated when I could not locate a blog or similar resource which projected the Miami Marlins 2012 payroll. Pirates Prospects has spoiled me, which led me to crunch the numbers on my own using Cot's Baseball Contracts and arbitration estimates from MLBTR's Offseason Outlook.


The list isn't perfect, but cut me some slack since this isn't one of my dedicated teams. This estimate initially showed $84 million allotted to their roster next season, then the Marlins just had to sign Buehrle to a 4 year, $58 million contract. This tentatively increases my projection to nearly $99 million unless his contract is This increases my projection to slightly over $90 million after discovering via MLBTR that his contract is back loaded like Reyes.

Of course this does not include the 10 year, $220 million offer to Albert Pujols that would have averaged $24 million per season, though it reportedly fell through before the Buehrle signing. Regardless of what was previously said, it does mean they have spent $191 million on three players in one week. It doesn't stop there. Apparently the Marlins still have an active offer out for Wilson and are now pursuing Prince Fielder.

What is going on in Miami? Check out their payroll over the past few years from Steve the Ump.

Marlins Payroll vs. Other MLB Teams, 2000-2011

The Marlins have consistently been a Major League Baseball team with a below average payroll. They have never crossed the seasonal average, though came relatively close in 2005 with $60MM only to begin the following season at a mere $15MM. That was the lowest payroll for a MLB team since 2000.

When will it end? At this rate the sky's the limit. $100MM? $120MM? $200MM?
Given Jeffrey Loria's sudden emulation of the late George Steinbrenner, I would not be terribly surprised.

Where did they suddenly get this money? Possible revenue share hoarding.

I am not going to question where this money came from, but I do wonder if they have the right people managing their finances. If this is actually money they had (wrongly) saved from revenue sharing or accumulated from other means, then so be it. If this is money they anticipate to generate in the future from the new stadium and new free agents, then that is a dreadful thought. When the new stadium fails to attract new fans, then there will be massive budget cuts. Perhaps this is why the Marlins refuses to offer anyone a no trade clause in their contracts.

It's possibly an escape plan from future financial emergencies, but let's hope the Marlins do not need to resort to using it.

Update #1: Wilson signed with the Angels and the Marlins are not interested in Fielder. Will the spending stop?

Update #2: Buehrle's contract is back loaded like Reyes, which reduces their 2012 payroll projection to ~$90MM.

Pirates Shop for New Ace

I talked about the Pittsburgh Pirates options for first base on Friday and concluded they should spend anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million for either Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, or Michael Cuddyer. What is left for a new starting pitcher?

In the best case scenario with a $50 million payroll, the Pirates would have at least $4.5 million to use towards a starting pitcher, which may be enough for a decent option considering Chris Capuano just signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers today for two years at $5 million per season. He was my first choice, but I also had Erik Bedard on my wishlist. Battling Bucs and McEffect are in agreeance with me.

I know I did not go into great detail when I last looked at the starting pitcher market, so let's check out who is still available. Here are all their options (viable or not) sorted by SIERA from last season as well as over the past three seasons. I prefer SIERA to FIP because it weighs strikeouts more heavily, which is something I wish the Pirates organization would desire more from their starting pitchers. This allows the pitchers I want them to acquire to shine much brighter because I want there to be no confusion: I don't want Paul Maholm back in Pittsburgh.

Starting Pitcher Targets over One Season

In addition to those mentioned, the Pirates also seem to be interested in Nippon Professional Baseball league pitchers Wei-Ying Chen (age 26) and Tsuyoshi Wada (30). Their advanced statistics are generally unavailable, but Bradley Woodrum on FanGraphs did crunch the numbers to produce their FIP. Wada received a FIP of 2.64 while Chen scored a 3.33. If these values are accurate to MLB standards, then it would rank them among the top 25 starters in 2011 who qualified. Who knows how they will actually perform in America, but the possibility of an elite pitcher for only $5 million per year is exciting.

Starting Pitcher Targets over Three Seasons

Using a filter of simply anyone better than Maholm, I found the 13 best free agent pitchers still available. Eight were superior to him on both lists, two posted marginal numbers than him last season, and three were slightly better over the past three seasons:

Both Lists	Last Season Only	Both Seasons
Erik Bedard	Kevin Millwood	Joe Pineiro
Rich Harden	Jason Marquis	Aaron Harang
Bartolo Colon		Jeff Francis
Javier Vazquez*
Hiroki Kuroda*
Roy Oswalt*
C.J. Wilson*
Edwin Jackson*		* Too Expensive

I do not expect them to be players for Vazquez, Kuroda, Oswalt, Wilson, or Jackson as their asking prices will certainly be much higher than their budget. That leaves eight pitchers I would be happy to see in black and gold next season. Bedard, Harden, Colon, Millwood, Marquis, Pineiro, Harang, and Francis should cost anywhere from $1 to $6 million per season with a contract length of one or two years. These are feasible choices considering comparable pitchers have already signed contracts this offseason for $3 to $6 million. The pitchers from the Japanese market could request $5 million per season. If the Pirates' payroll is set even higher than $50 million, then it may even be possible to sign two pitchers instead of just the one.

This is ideal as they are affordable short-term investments and should pave the way for their prospects developing in the farm system, but what happens if their payroll becomes less than optimistic? Perhaps they overpay a first baseman, which is not unrealistic as players do not flock to Pittsburgh by choice, and they decide not to expand their payroll much beyond their initially proposed $50 million limit. It could effectively reduce their budget for a starting pitcher to zero. If this occurs, they will have two avenues: stick with their unaltered righty-heavy rotation or get creative. Time for a bake sale.

The Buccos would have plenty of depth at first as well as the outfield, so they may be able to release or trade Garrett Jones to save approximately $2.4 million (arbitration estimate). The other financial aid could come from a trade involving Joel Hanrahan. Closers are in high demand and reaching surprisingly high values. It would be crazy to not at least test the waters, especially as it could remove $4 million (arbitration estimate) from their current payroll and provide new prospects via a trade. Making these moves would have the potential to create $6.4 million that could be used toward a new starting pitcher.

Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in yellow, positional/role changes in grey.

Optimal Outcome - $56MM
Lee accepts his arbitration offer at the value of $8.5 million and the two most exciting lefties are added to the starting rotation (Bedard and Chen) for $5.25 million each. The moves would shift Jones to the bench, while Correia would assume a role in the bullpen. This would raise their 2012 payroll to approximately $56 million, which is still true to their initial statement of "over $50 million."

Inferior Outcome - $47MM
Lee declines arbitration, which provides them a sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds. They would divert their attention to another first baseman and eventually offer Pena $12 million. Overpaying him triggers a liquidation process, which ships out Jones and Hanrahan. This creates extra finances to sign an extra starting pitcher, but fans are disappointed it is a righty beyond their prime: Millwood. Evan Meek was the second choice for the closer role last season and would likely become the new closer if Hanrahan left. Fans become upset when their payroll fails to meet the promised estimate at the cost of two fan favorites.

Worst Outcome - $43M
Lee declines arbitration and receive their sandwich pick, but none of the other free agent first basemen acknowledge the Pirates' offers. They are forced to use a platoon consisting of Jones, Matt Hague, and Nick Evans. A below average starting pitcher is overpaid who does not utilize strikeouts and fails to provide the needed diversity in a right-handed heavy rotation. Promises of reformation, change, and increasing payroll are ignored by management, which causes outrage.

Can the Pirates find an average or better starting pitcher? Certainly, although I hope they do not succumb to dumpster diving for Aaron Cook.

Pirates Push for Lee

It has been over two months since the regular season ended and one month since the World Series finished. The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the offseason trying to solve their problems in preparation for next season. Thus far they have filled their formerly empty positions at catcher and shortstop with Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes, respectively.

I previously speculated on an idea of how the Pirates could solve their positional woes with the money they were allotted earlier this month. My vision would have spent $8 million to acquire Kelly Shoppach and Nick Punto. I think Barajas was a fine addition as you should gather from my earlier praises, though acquiring Barmes was most surprising.

I do not intend "surprising" to come across as a bad thing; on the contrary, I am actually quite impressed. He may not have been the best in the entire group, however he was the best we could afford. He does not have incredible power or speed, but his defense is well renowned. What little power in his bat may disappear after leaving Coors Field and Minute Maid Park, nevertheless he should still be an upgrade over our former shortstop, Ronny Cedeno.

These two investments will cost the team $9 million in 2012. If Pirates Prospects' 40-Man Roster and Payroll is accurate, then they should have $37 million tied up on their current roster. Beginning the 2012 season with a payroll of $50 million or more should leave at least $13 million to procure a first baseman with power and a starting pitcher or two.

The Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles before the trading deadline and has expressed great interest in retaining him for next season and offered him arbitration, though we are not so sure the feeling is mutual. If Lee declines the arbitration offer, then I would expect the Pirates to abandon Lee, accept the first round compensation pick, and switch their focus to another player.

Many have been talking about Carlos Pena as an alternative to Lee, but there is also Michael Cuddyer. Among these three options for first base, all share near-identical fielding percentages though Cuddyer actually logged more playing time in right field than first. They all logged a positive UZR/150 this past season, though Lee was the only one to post a positive score over the past three seasons (2.9). Run prevention is nice, but I am certain Pirates fans would care more about run production and power.

First Base Targets over One Season

First Base Targets over Three Seasons

Their 2011 performances were extremely similar, but Lee was on the bottom with an OPS of .771, then Cuddyer at .805, and Pena on top with .819. Pena's score is spoiled by his poor batting average (.225), which was a depressing improvement over his previous season (.196). Lee shoots ahead when you look at their statistics over the last three seasons, but he is aging and is unlikely to improve very much from 2011. Each guy is a threat for 20+ home runs as long as they stay healthy.

Pena and Cuddyer both earned close to $10 million in 2011, while Lee earned $7.25 million. If Lee accepts arbitration or a new contract is conjured, then expect him to receive a raise over his 2011 salary. Pirates Prospects estimates it would be over $8.5 million. That said, it would probably take anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million to convince one of these guys to come to Pittsburgh, which has the potential to become the most expensive one year salary in franchise history over Matt Morris who earned over $10 million in 2008.

I will talk about their starting pitching options in my next article rather than only devote a paragraph or two.

Stay tuned.

Pirates Report Card, etc

I have not posted anything recently, but rest assured I did not stop writing. I simply took a small vacation to visit family and friends in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/11/24/bd-report-card-pittsburgh-pirates

The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card

In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.

Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

If you reference my 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates report card, then you should know they have plenty of room for improvement as they prepare for 2012. Their offense was among the worst in the major leagues with a serious lack of power, while their pitching was only marginally better in comparison. They actually have some money to spend this offseason after a big pick up in attendance this past season and since several players fell off their pay books.

The exact amount they have to spend on free agent signings this offseason will be dependent upon who the Pirates decide to tender in arbitration and how much. If they increase their payroll to $50M, which they previously reported, then they should have approximately $20M of flexibility. Pirates’ general manager, Neil Huntington, reported, "We’re going to non-tender some players that people don’t want us to non-tender. We’re going to tender some players that probably surprise some people." This worries me as this potentially means the team could bring back Ross Ohlendorf for another season who has been adequate at best, and we may lose Garrett Jones who had a fairly productive season while platooning at both first base and right field.

Team options were declined for Paul Maholm ($9.75M), Ryan Doumit ($7.25M), Chris Snyder ($6.75M), and Ronny Cedeno ($3M). The Pirates absorbed $2.2 million to allow them to walk along with their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. The loss of these key players caused the apparent necessity for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, and at least one starting pitcher. The Pirates are lucky to have Neil Walker locked in at second base; Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, et al covering the bullpen; and Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and company protecting the outfield.

There is no chance of Doumit returning as he recently signed with the Minnesota Twins for one year at $3M. The Buccos are not terribly concerned as they locked in Rod Barajas, former catcher of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a one year contract to the tune of $4M with a $3.5M team option for 2013. Veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, is the most recent free agent signing and is now reportedly under contract for two years at the cost of $10.5M. If these reports are accurate, then they filled their gaps at catcher and shortstop with about $10M to spare for other acquisitions.

The team still desires at least one starting pitcher with Charlie Morton probably beginning the season on the disabled list, Maholm gone, and Ohlendorf hopefully in Pittsburgh’s past. Otherwise they will be relying upon an even younger starting rotation than they used in 2011, which ended poorly as they ran out of steam going into August.

Management acquired Lee and Ludwick before the 2011 trade deadline with the hope to add a much needed power threat in their lineup, but they were riddled by injuries like the rest of the roster. Ludwick should not be pursued this offseason as there is already a major logjam in the outfield, but I bet everyone would love to have Lee back next season. He performed poorly while playing in Baltimore, but played with MVP-like caliber during his brief stint with the Pirates.

The outfield is chock-full of young talent with Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen as their trophy centerpiece. But it doesn't stop there. Starling Marte was protected from the Rule 5 draft and will be their regular center fielder for their Indianapolis AAA team to start 2012, but there are also younger options still developing like Robbie Grossman and Josh Bell who are not quite ready for the Big Show. It is almost mind boggling to realize the Pirates actually have depth at a position, so how do you make them all fit?

It is possible they will ask McCutchen or Marte to shift from center field, but it is equally feasible for them to trade Marte or Presley in an attempt to alleviate this traffic jam and try to strengthen a weaker position. If they somehow manage to retain all of them, then Joel Hanrahan is another possibility as a buy low and sell high trade candidate.

The only position not aforementioned is third base which should have been covered by Pedro Alvarez; however, he had a terrifyingly dismal season and spent nearly two months in the minor league. We can only hope it was his "sophomore slump" and the performance picks up again next season.

There is plenty of talent developing down on the farm, as usually is the case in the Pirates organization, but the question of who we may see make their major league debut in 2012 is a little difficult to distinguish. Marte may make an appearance if a positional opening is made for him, Rudy Owens could fight for a spot in the rotation but it may be difficult if they take his down year in AAA into account, and Matt Hague who was also recently protected from the Rule 5 draft.

I sincerely expect Hague to make his appearance in 2012. He has experience to play first and third base, which may be quite helpful if anyone gets hurt or fails to produce. Hague hits for average with modest power and has incredible patience at the plate. If I had a comparison in mind, I would hope he turns out to become a player similar to Kansas City Royals’ Billy Butler.

The Buccos were a playoff threat and divisional leader this past July, which caused a few fans to regain hope and hop back on the bandwagon. Here’s hoping that 2012 is the year the Pirates once again become an above average team. Perhaps they can reclaim their dominance last seen by fans in 1992.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview