How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Now (2014)

Yesterday I was lurking Twitter while scouring for interesting tidbits of news worth retweeting when I stumbled upon a conversation between two of my favorite Pirates informants: Pat Lackey and Tim Williams. Pat started by referencing an article that was published to Fangraphs on Wednesday ("Gregory Polanco Won’t Fix The Pirates’ Real Problem" by Mike Petriello) and they started to roll from there:

The above conversation was compiled using Conweets

Biggest problem with Pirates pitching this year is Liriano and Cole aren’t pitching like 2013 versions. Much different story if they were.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

We have complained about the Pirates' sluggish slugging when they are actually very close to league average. Poor pitching is the real dilemma, but how and when do they fix this problem? According to Mike, he would see Neal Huntington shock us with a trade to acquire either James Shields or Jeff Samardzija. Pat and Tim did not like the short-sightedness of Shields, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, and agreed upon Smartzilla. They also mentioned David Price as another alternative.

Any of these pitchers would be exciting additions to the Pirates rotation, but will they be buyers at the deadline? Perhaps. Who will be selling? The race is still relatively close, however it is fairly safe to assume the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rays, Astros, Padres, and Cubs could all be potential sellers. Currently, they each own a losing record and their playoff expectancy is below ten percent. (Playoff Odds)

Who could be considered from these preemptive basement sales? If we only pay attention to players without attractive team-friendly contracts who remain under team control for at least one additional season, then the list could include the following:




How many of these aforementioned pitchers will actually appear on the trade block? I would be surprised to see more than half of these names mentioned, but I listed them regardless as they fit the description: A starting pitcher in their arbitration years who is currently or historically capable of pitching better than average.



All the options listed above appear to be better options than Edinson Volquez except Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill. Price or Samardzija are certainly the best options, but there are others to consider as well.

Who would you like to see in the rotation in addition to (or to substitute) any of our current Pirates starting pitchers? Who would you avoid?

2014 Overall Rankings - Final Update

Spring training is over and Opening Day is here. This offseason has been seriously unkind to pitchers' arms. You will find many starting pitchers on the projected disabled list and quite a few uses of the phrase "Tommy John."

The 25-man rosters are set, so we should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2014 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or using the link at the top of the page.

Many of your fantasy baseball teams should be drafted by now, but this should keep you up to date even if your draft is still not completed. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have that draft coming up or have your team and need to make adjustments:

The following players will likely miss the entire 2014 season:

• Matt Harvey - Recovering from Tommy John surgery, October 2013
• Cory Luebke - Recovering from Tommy John surgery, February 2014
• Luke Hochevar - Right elbow (Tommy John)
• Patrick Corbin - UCL damage in left elbow (Tommy John)
• Jarrod Parker - Right elbow (Tommy John)
• Kris Medlen - Right elbow (Tommy John #2)
• Brandon Beachy - Right elbow (Tommy John #2)
• Bruce Rondon - Right elbow (Tommy John)
• David Hernandez - Torn right elbow ligament (Tommy John)
• Bobby Parnell** - Partial tear of MCL in right elbow (**Tommy John likely)

The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:

• ARI: Corbin (SP), Hernandez, (RP), Daniel Hudson (SP), Cody Ross (LF)
  
• ATL: Beachy (SP), Gavin Floyd (SP), Medlen (SP), Mike Minor (SP), Jonny Venters (RP)
  
• BAL: Manny Machado (3B), Nolan Reimold (LF)
  
• CHW: Gordon Beckham (2B), Jeff Keppinger (2B)
  
• CIN: Jonathan Broxton (RP), Aroldis Chapman (RP), Mat Latos (SP), Sean Marshall (RP)
  
• CLE: Michael Bourn (CF)
  
• COL: Jhoulys Chacin (SP), Tyler Chatwood (SP)
  
• DET: Andy Dirks (LF), Jose Iglesias (SS), Rondon (RP)
  
• HOU: Jesse Crain (RP)
  
• KCR: Hochevar (SP)
  
• LAA: Sean Burnett (RP)
  
• LAD: Josh Beckett (SP), Chad Billingsley (SP), Matt Kemp (CF), Clayton Kershaw (SP)
  
• MIA: Rafael Furcal (SS)
  
• NYM: Harvey (SP), Jonathon Niese (SP), Parnell (RP)
  
• OAK: Ryan Cook (RP), A.J. Griffin (SP), Eric O'Flaherty (RP), Parker (SP)
  
• PHI: Mike Adams (RP), Freddy Galvis (2B), Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (SP), Cole Hamels (SP), Darin Ruf (LF)
  
• SDP: Josh Johnson (SP), Luebke (SP), Cameron Maybin (CF), Carlos Quentin (LF)
  
• SEA: Hisashi Iwakuma (SP), Taijuan Walker (SP)
  
• SFG: Jeremy Affeldt (RP), Marco Scutaro (2B)
  
• STL: Jaime Garcia (SP), Jason Motte (RP)
  
• TAM: David DeJesus (LF), Jeremy Hellickson (SP)
  
• TEX: Yu Darvish (SP), Matt Harrison (SP), Derek Holland (SP), Jurickson Profar (2B), Geovany Soto (C)
  
• WAS: Doug Fister (SP), Wilson Ramos (C)
  

Reference: MLB's Injury Report
I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Give me a shout or leave a comment if it helped you. The encouragement is great motivation.

Good luck in your leagues this season!

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft #2

Happy #MockDraftMonday!

@AATH_Baseball @MLB No idea, but welcome!

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) March 10, 2014

I guess I was under a rock when ESPN announced today's impromptu fantasy baseball holiday where their experts occasionally hopped into the mock draft lobby with other users to draft alongside them. A few fortunate enough to join a mock league with one of them received pretty nice advice and had some good fun. I arrived late to the party, so I was not drafting against any notable experts.

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

Once again I did not win the draft. In fact, my team is worst than my first mock draft attempt.

I took my own advice and waited on pitching, but I think I probably waited far too long. The majority of my pitchers came in rounds 13-25 aside from Jose Fernandez and Koji Uehara in rounds 5 and 11, respectively. Most of these pitchers in the later rounds of the draft have the potential to be good, but you might bring you might find yourself crossing your fingers too hard. Tim Lincecum, Brandon Beachy, Taijuan Walker, Ian Kennedy, and Josh Johnson all fit this description. Risking your draft on a few guys may result in a worthwhile investment, but what happens if they all tank? Well, there goes your season.

I was much more satisfied with my infield this time and I can thank Miguel Cabrera for helping me start the draft strong. There is some risk in Mark Teixeira, Jhonny Peralta, and Manny Machado given their background, but I feel their draft slots matched well. If Tex fails to perform, then perhaps Justin Morneau in a Rockies uniform will help fill first base instead. This outfield is strong, perhaps even stronger than my previous draft. It all depends upon Jose Bautista's health and the performances from both Hamiltons: Josh and Billy.

I find myself drafting a lot of the same players and that may be because everyone is referencing ESPN's ranking list while I am using my own. I probably should hop into a Yahoo mock draft for comparison's sake.

Once again, you can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

Today, I fell victim to boredom and so I thought, "What better time to take my Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings list for a test drive than now?"

I hopped into the ESPN mock draft lobby, joined 12-team snake draft, and this is what happened:

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

According to ESPN I did not win the draft, and I tend to agree with them. If I compare their projected estimates to my Stat Targets in Roto Leagues, then I notice the scale is very close, which assures me my data is still prevalent even though it is two years old.

My outfield is solid, the core pitching staff is good, but my infielders scare me a lot. Corey Hart and Xander Bogaerts are the biggest question marks considering neither have seen much playing time at the professional level over the past year. I have some concerns with Everth Cabrera as well, but then again everyone who accepted suspensions last season have to something to prove us all.

The backend of my pitching staff doesn't keep me hopeful either. Huston Street is almost always prone to injury, Francisco Liriano was great last season but there's no telling if he will repeat, Neftali Feliz has not pitched in what feels like ages, Ubaldo Jimenez was only good toward the end of last season, and Kyle Lohse... I just don't trust Lohse, especially not with the Brewers who's running with a skeleton crew.

My best value picks were undoubtedly Matt Holliday in round 7 and Curtis Granderson in round 14. I have no idea why everyone seems to be so down on Holliday, but I will gladly capitalize off everyone else's error. The Grandy man is on the decline, he will probably hurt the team batting average, and Citi Field will likely zap a lot of his power; but I feel much better when I steal him as pick number 164 as compared to the consensus of the experts (110, round 10-11).

If I could do this draft over again, then I would have opted to take an infielder or two earlier than round nine. Maybe I could have swapped in Josh Donaldson or Allen Craig in the earlier rounds and wait on pitching until at least round six.

You can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

2014 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Updated April 2, 2014 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet

Code	Website Name	Twitter	Weighted Value	Last Update
BP	Baseball Professor	@BaseballProf	1	February 22
CBS1	Scott White	@CBSScottWhite	1	March 27
CBS2	Al Melchior	@almelccbs	1	March 24
CBS3	Michael Hurcomb	@CBSHurc	1	March 30
CHGM	ClubhouseGM	@ClubhouseGM	1	February 18
ESPN1	ESPN Fantasy Staff	@ESPNFantasy	5	March 26
ESPN2	Tristan H. Cockcroft	@SultanofStat	3	April 2
FA	Fantasy Assembly	@TheJimFinch	1	March 17
FBC	Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks	@FBCrackerjacks	2	February 27
FC	Fantasy Cafe	@rjwhite1	2	March 23
FGD	Fantasy Gameday	@Fantasy_Gameday	3	March 11
FS	Fantasy Squads	@FantasySquads	1	March 28
FP911	Fantasy Pros 911	@MattDFP911	1	March 28
FOX	Fox Sports Staff	@FoxSports	5	March 25
MLB	Major League Baseball	@MLB	2	March 31
MrCS	Mr. Cheatsheet	@MrCheatSheet	1	March 26
MrFF	Mr. Fantasy Freak	@Awies28	1	December 22
RAZZ	Razzball	@Razzball	3	March 25
RC	RotoChamp	@RotoChamp	2	March 31
YHOO	Yahoo Sports Staff	@YahooSports	5	March 28

This guide provided me with success in 2012, so it's here to return in 2014. My apologies to the one and only user who submitted a request for it last year, but I was preoccupied with my own work. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along.

Players who will not play in 2014 were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera in their top two which is why they have the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft them with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk or the possibility of reaching.

• Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp - Oh how the mighty hath fallen. Previous first round locks in 2012, but where will they end up in 2014 after being plagued by injuries?
  
• Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta - PED distrust and suspicions?
  
• Masahiro Tanaka - Newly imported from Japan and shipped into hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. No one's sure what to expect.
  
• David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Chase Utley - Regression candidates? The experts seem to have differing opinions on how to rank these guys.
  
• Max Scherzer, Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Jean Segura, Matt Carpenter - Some believe they played over their heads last season and have no place to go but down.
  
• Josh Hamilton, Starlin Castro, CC Sabathia, B.J. Upton - Some were bad in 2013, others were downright awful. We can only expect them to improve, right? Right?
  
• Manny Machado - Opted for reconstructive surgery on his knee on October 10, 2013 that will sideline him for 4-6 months. He is expected to return around Opening Day, but not everyone is optimistic.

Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide has helped me win several leagues and I hope it helps you win your league, too.

I can't promise any new content beyond this guide, so please don't hold your breath. I don't want to be held liable for any asphyxiations.