Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig

Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.

I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:

Let's start Craig at second base.

Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.

Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.

Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B

If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.

John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.

The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.

Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.

Plan B: Beyond Pujols

I previously asked how much Albert Pujols was worth. Based upon my results, his next contract should range between $17 and $35 million per year. That's an average possibility of $26 million per year. Whether or not you believe he deserves the amount he receives does not matter at this time because it is inevitable. You can blame the lack of a salary cap, but that is something to debate on another day.

The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?

Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.

Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.

In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."

FanGraphs and Viva El Birdos speculates a lineup without Albert Pujols

I agree with Larry's opinions, especially regarding his final statement. The free agent market is weak this offseason and the money saved from not signing Albert could be better spent on the possibility of a more talented crop of free agents next year. Failure to sign Albert would be a devastating loss to the fans of Cardinal nation, but they should not feel obligated to sign a free agent just for the sake of signing somebody.

If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.

I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.

Matheny is La Russa's Successor

Last week the St. Louis Cardinals had six candidates for their managerial position which opened when Tony La Russa retired. Today Mike Matheny, former catcher, was formally announced as his replacement.

I was not a part of Cardinal nation when Matheny was a part of the team, so I do not have a firsthand appreciation for him. He is described as a great leader and answered questions with surprising eloquence during this morning's press conference, but will he be a great manager? Of course this is difficult to determine because John Mozeliak decided upon the only candidate with no previous managerial experience, though he was a special assistant in player development last year and a minor league instructor the year beforehand.

Cards Diaspora had an interesting list of the candidates and I thought the most interesting possibility was Ryne Sandberg. Why on earth would the Chicago Cubs overlook a Hall of Famer with managing experience in the minor leagues? Terry Francona was the most seasoned option, but may have been overlooked due to his affiliation and recent affinity toward newfound Cubs president, Theo Epstein.

We will find out if he succeeds during the next regular season, but I am wondering about the immediate repercussions. For example, Albert Pujols would supposedly resign with the Cards if Jose Oquendo were elected to be the manager, so did those odds decrease? Oquendo was not selected for the position he interviewed, so will he quietly continue as their third base coach? Will the other coaches and trainers choose to be his subordinates even though a few were actually his superiors years prior?

One offseason question is finally answered, but it causes several other questions.

What is Pujols Worth?

Albert Pujols is a free agent. As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, hearing that may be difficult to swallow, but I finally came to the realization he may not be back next season after hearing he will be visiting with the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.

Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.

Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.

Albert Pujols (red/blue) versus CC Sabathia (navy/white)

Pujols has been an outstanding player ever since he first appeared in the Majors in 2001 and has been superior to Sabathia every season aside from 2011. He has performed fairly consistently over the course of his entire career, though you can see a steep decline since 2009 (since 2008 if you really want to argue a difference of WAR from 9.1 to 9.0 is really a decline).

He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.

So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.

Albert Pujols WAR Projections (Max/Min)

Albert Pujols Salary Projections (Max/Min)

Year	$/Win	Max WAR	Max Value	Min WAR	Min Value
2012	5.00	8.0	$40.00	5.1	$25.50
2013	5.25	7.5	$39.38	4.6	$25.50
2014	5.51	7.0	$38.59	4.1	$24.15
2015	5.79	6.5	$37.62	3.6	$22.60
2016	6.08	6.0	$36.47	3.1	$18.84
2017	6.38	5.5	$35.10	2.6	$16.59
2018	6.70	5.0	$33.50	2.1	$14.07
2019	7.04	4.5	$31.66	1.6	$11.26
2020	7.39	4.0	$29.55	1.1	$8.13
2021	7.76	3.5	$27.15	0.6	$4.65
-	-	57.5	$349.01	28.5	$166.63

A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.

I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.

What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."

New Pirates Catcher Signed

The Pittsburgh Pirates landed a new catcher today in former Los Angeles Dodger, Rod Barajas. He signed a one-year contract valued at $4 million with a 2013 team option worth $3.5 million. I have to be honest, he was not on the top of my list, but I certainly prefer him over Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.

Over the past three seasons, Barajas had the second worst BB/K rate (0.27) among all the free agent catchers, walk percentage (4.8%), and on base percentage (.275). However, he also had the second highest slugging percentage (.424) and second most home runs (52). He has logged the most innings behind home plate among them all (2483.2) and earned the second best Total Zone score (6) with a respectable .994 fielding percentage to boot.

If you can't make heads or tails out of the jumbled paragraph of facts and statistics, then let me lend you my explanation. Barajas is not a very disciplined hitter. He should not reach base nearly as often as Doumit or even Snyder, but he has the capability to hit the ball over the fence at least a few times every season. His defense and longevity sets himself apart from the rest of the pack.

Top Five Free Agent Catchers in 2011, via FunGraphs

Top Five Free Agent Catchers over 3 Seasons, via FunGraphs

Many other Pirates bloggers and analysts would have preferred Ramon Hernandez, obviously because he was the superior choice out of them all, but would have cost them a draft pick as a Type A free agent. I would have stayed away from Jorge Posada given his age, horrendous performance at the plate, and lack of appearances behind the plate last season, though it would have been quite hilarious if we ended up signing him since it would have been a tale of rags to riches, only reversed, and I do enjoy it when a previously successful Yankee succumbs to poverty. I would have still preferred Kelly Shoppach as my catcher, but he may not have been as affordable.

Barajas must have some pretty reasonable defense and slugging to offset his otherwise poor hitting in order to rank himself so highly in this group, third highest WAR this past season and fifth highest over the last three seasons. His price tag was much more cost effective than Doumit and Snyder's options, so I am pretty satisfied by this decision.

To end this post, I want to share this animated gif of Rod Barajas from earlier this season extracted from Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. This alone makes me excited to have such a crazy, weird guy on my team.

Rod Barajas treats Dee Gordon like a baby