Pirates Report Card, etc

I have not posted anything recently, but rest assured I did not stop writing. I simply took a small vacation to visit family and friends in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/11/24/bd-report-card-pittsburgh-pirates

The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card

In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.

Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

If you reference my 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates report card, then you should know they have plenty of room for improvement as they prepare for 2012. Their offense was among the worst in the major leagues with a serious lack of power, while their pitching was only marginally better in comparison. They actually have some money to spend this offseason after a big pick up in attendance this past season and since several players fell off their pay books.

The exact amount they have to spend on free agent signings this offseason will be dependent upon who the Pirates decide to tender in arbitration and how much. If they increase their payroll to $50M, which they previously reported, then they should have approximately $20M of flexibility. Pirates’ general manager, Neil Huntington, reported, "We’re going to non-tender some players that people don’t want us to non-tender. We’re going to tender some players that probably surprise some people." This worries me as this potentially means the team could bring back Ross Ohlendorf for another season who has been adequate at best, and we may lose Garrett Jones who had a fairly productive season while platooning at both first base and right field.

Team options were declined for Paul Maholm ($9.75M), Ryan Doumit ($7.25M), Chris Snyder ($6.75M), and Ronny Cedeno ($3M). The Pirates absorbed $2.2 million to allow them to walk along with their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. The loss of these key players caused the apparent necessity for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, and at least one starting pitcher. The Pirates are lucky to have Neil Walker locked in at second base; Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, et al covering the bullpen; and Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and company protecting the outfield.

There is no chance of Doumit returning as he recently signed with the Minnesota Twins for one year at $3M. The Buccos are not terribly concerned as they locked in Rod Barajas, former catcher of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a one year contract to the tune of $4M with a $3.5M team option for 2013. Veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, is the most recent free agent signing and is now reportedly under contract for two years at the cost of $10.5M. If these reports are accurate, then they filled their gaps at catcher and shortstop with about $10M to spare for other acquisitions.

The team still desires at least one starting pitcher with Charlie Morton probably beginning the season on the disabled list, Maholm gone, and Ohlendorf hopefully in Pittsburgh’s past. Otherwise they will be relying upon an even younger starting rotation than they used in 2011, which ended poorly as they ran out of steam going into August.

Management acquired Lee and Ludwick before the 2011 trade deadline with the hope to add a much needed power threat in their lineup, but they were riddled by injuries like the rest of the roster. Ludwick should not be pursued this offseason as there is already a major logjam in the outfield, but I bet everyone would love to have Lee back next season. He performed poorly while playing in Baltimore, but played with MVP-like caliber during his brief stint with the Pirates.

The outfield is chock-full of young talent with Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen as their trophy centerpiece. But it doesn't stop there. Starling Marte was protected from the Rule 5 draft and will be their regular center fielder for their Indianapolis AAA team to start 2012, but there are also younger options still developing like Robbie Grossman and Josh Bell who are not quite ready for the Big Show. It is almost mind boggling to realize the Pirates actually have depth at a position, so how do you make them all fit?

It is possible they will ask McCutchen or Marte to shift from center field, but it is equally feasible for them to trade Marte or Presley in an attempt to alleviate this traffic jam and try to strengthen a weaker position. If they somehow manage to retain all of them, then Joel Hanrahan is another possibility as a buy low and sell high trade candidate.

The only position not aforementioned is third base which should have been covered by Pedro Alvarez; however, he had a terrifyingly dismal season and spent nearly two months in the minor league. We can only hope it was his "sophomore slump" and the performance picks up again next season.

There is plenty of talent developing down on the farm, as usually is the case in the Pirates organization, but the question of who we may see make their major league debut in 2012 is a little difficult to distinguish. Marte may make an appearance if a positional opening is made for him, Rudy Owens could fight for a spot in the rotation but it may be difficult if they take his down year in AAA into account, and Matt Hague who was also recently protected from the Rule 5 draft.

I sincerely expect Hague to make his appearance in 2012. He has experience to play first and third base, which may be quite helpful if anyone gets hurt or fails to produce. Hague hits for average with modest power and has incredible patience at the plate. If I had a comparison in mind, I would hope he turns out to become a player similar to Kansas City Royals’ Billy Butler.

The Buccos were a playoff threat and divisional leader this past July, which caused a few fans to regain hope and hop back on the bandwagon. Here’s hoping that 2012 is the year the Pirates once again become an above average team. Perhaps they can reclaim their dominance last seen by fans in 1992.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig

Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.

I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:

Let's start Craig at second base.

Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.

Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.

Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B

If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.

John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.

The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.

Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.

Plan B: Beyond Pujols

I previously asked how much Albert Pujols was worth. Based upon my results, his next contract should range between $17 and $35 million per year. That's an average possibility of $26 million per year. Whether or not you believe he deserves the amount he receives does not matter at this time because it is inevitable. You can blame the lack of a salary cap, but that is something to debate on another day.

The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?

Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.

Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.

In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."

FanGraphs and Viva El Birdos speculates a lineup without Albert Pujols

I agree with Larry's opinions, especially regarding his final statement. The free agent market is weak this offseason and the money saved from not signing Albert could be better spent on the possibility of a more talented crop of free agents next year. Failure to sign Albert would be a devastating loss to the fans of Cardinal nation, but they should not feel obligated to sign a free agent just for the sake of signing somebody.

If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.

I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.

Matheny is La Russa's Successor

Last week the St. Louis Cardinals had six candidates for their managerial position which opened when Tony La Russa retired. Today Mike Matheny, former catcher, was formally announced as his replacement.

I was not a part of Cardinal nation when Matheny was a part of the team, so I do not have a firsthand appreciation for him. He is described as a great leader and answered questions with surprising eloquence during this morning's press conference, but will he be a great manager? Of course this is difficult to determine because John Mozeliak decided upon the only candidate with no previous managerial experience, though he was a special assistant in player development last year and a minor league instructor the year beforehand.

Cards Diaspora had an interesting list of the candidates and I thought the most interesting possibility was Ryne Sandberg. Why on earth would the Chicago Cubs overlook a Hall of Famer with managing experience in the minor leagues? Terry Francona was the most seasoned option, but may have been overlooked due to his affiliation and recent affinity toward newfound Cubs president, Theo Epstein.

We will find out if he succeeds during the next regular season, but I am wondering about the immediate repercussions. For example, Albert Pujols would supposedly resign with the Cards if Jose Oquendo were elected to be the manager, so did those odds decrease? Oquendo was not selected for the position he interviewed, so will he quietly continue as their third base coach? Will the other coaches and trainers choose to be his subordinates even though a few were actually his superiors years prior?

One offseason question is finally answered, but it causes several other questions.