Pirates 2011 Report Card

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

The Pirates ended 2010 practically on rock bottom with a 57-105 record. It was their worst season over the course of their 18 season losing streak. Management made a couple promising moves over the offseason, then entered 2011 hoping to rebound from an atrocious season. They started unusually strong and ended July not only above .500, but also in contention to claim the NL Central division. Optimism would be replaced by excitement when they acquired Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick before the trade deadline. Excitement quickly turned into the same despair which Pirates fans have experienced over the last two decades as they suffered from multiple injuries and fell to end the season 72-90. Although the Buccos clinched their 19th consecutive losing season, we saw a ray of hope which caused many fans to hop back on the bandwagon.

Rotation: C-
The opening day rotation consisted of Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald. Ohlendorf strained his shoulder in April which moved Jeff Karstens up from the bullpen. Injuries in August to Correia and Maholm allowed Brad Lincoln and Jeff Locke to each make a few starts.

Correia was acquired over the offseason and signed to a two year deal. He did extremely well in the first half which earned him a questionable spot on the All-Star team, but was miserable after the break and while pitching at home. Maholm actually had one of his best seasons, though you wouldn’t realize it by looking at any conventional statistics. Karstens, Morton, and McDonald each had reasonable seasons, but they were unable to pitch deep into many games. Only McDonald managed a K/9 rate above the league average, but he was also inaccurate with a high BB/9 rate. These pitchers could blame the offense for their lack of run support, but I blame their lack of efficiency.

Bullpen: B+
Joel Hanrahan was the designated closer entering 2011 and he took over the role quite well. He earned his first All-Star selection and ended the season with 40 saves. Evan Meek was weighed down by shoulder tendinitis throughout the season. Jose Veras, Chris Resop, Daniel McCutchen, Tony Watson, and Jason Grilli (obtained from Philadelphia) gobbled the most innings among the Buccos relief pitchers. Each of them posted a K/9 above 8 except Daniel. Amazingly, Resop, Grilli, and Veras were among the top 30 relievers in regards to their K/9 rates at 10.21, 10.19, and 10.01, respectively. Joe Beimel, Daniel Moskos, and Chris Leroux also made their share of appearances throughout the season, though Beimel was not very effective.

Insufficient outings by the Pirates' starting pitchers inevitably overworked their young bullpen and caused the team to falter toward the end of the season.

Catchers: D+
The Pirates' backstop position was plagued by injuries this season as they cycled through the use of Ryan Doumit, Chris Snyder, and Michael McKenry. McKenry was acquired from Boston in June and received the majority of the innings behind homeplate, which was disappointing considering Doumit and Snyder combined for a salary over $11 million, about 20% of the team’s payroll. Doumit provided the best offense among the three, which is typical for him, but he just can not stay healthy over long periods of time while playing as the catcher anymore.

Infield: C-
The Buccos were either injury prone or inconsistent across the infield for the majority of the season. Their only cornerstone was second basemen, Neil Walker, who had a decent all-around season. Ronny Cedeno had an average season at the plate by his standards, which is still quite bad, though his defense at shortstop did improve. Both players received nominations for a Gold Glove, though neither won.

Pedro Alvarez was dubbed the starting third basemen on opening day, but he just could not find his swing and spent the majority of the season struggling, hurt, or in the minors. In his absence, Brandon Wood and Josh Harrison each had equal opportunity in the hot corner. Wood provided better defense, while Harrison was a more consistent hitter. Chase d'Arnaud also logged some time to back them up as well as Cedeno, but he was equally disappointing both on and off the field.

Lyle Overbay and Garrett Jones platooned at first. Jones had a decent season and recorded the second most homers for the team. Overbay did a great job fielding at first, but had a poor year at the plate. He was released soon after Derrek Lee was acquired from the Orioles. Lee would have been the offensive power the Pirates were after, but he hit the DL and only played 28 games. His WAR was equal to Jones (0.9) even though he played a fraction of his season with the Pirates.

Outfield: B+
The situations in left and center field were originally handled by Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen, respectively, but Tabata spent nearly two months nursing an injured quad. Right field consisted of another platoon with Jones and Matt Diaz. McCutchen had another great season, even though his batting average did sink a little; Jones did fine filling in roles at first and right; Tabata did well while he was healthy; and Diaz left much desired offensively and on the field. He was eventually traded after acquiring Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick hit the DL shortly after he was obtained and did not make the same impact as Lee. Xavier Paul and Alex Presley did their share of playing the corner outfield once it was realized Diaz could not play and Tabata was injured. Both played the field well, but Presley trumped Paul with better offense.


Top Offensive Player
Andrew McCutchen easily led the Pirates offensively with a WAR of 5.7. He ended the season as the team leader in practically every offensive category: home runs, runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. Although his batting average was down and his strikeout rate was up compared to previous years, his on base percentage stayed about the same due to an increased walk rate. An increased slugging percentage and isolated power rating may indicate we could expect more homers from him in seasons to come.

Top Pitcher
This may be arguable, but I believe Joel Hanrahan had the greatest impact on the mound this year for the Pirates. Not only do the conventional statistics support his performance (40 saves, 1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), but so do the advanced metrics (8.0 K/9, 3.81 K/BB, .282 BABIP, 2.18 FIP, 2.73 SIERA, 2.98 xFIP). His 2.0 WAR ranked 7th among qualified relief pitchers, 4th among team closers behind only Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, and Mariano Rivera.

---

Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

AATH_Baseball on Twitter

I did something today I told myself I would never do...

Analysis around the Horn is now on Twitter.

http://www.twitter.com/AATH_Baseball

The link can also be found in the Twitter tab below the logo.

All are welcome to join and encouraged to share with your friends.

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

I invite anyone who participated in MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediciton Contest to share their predictions. All choices are now locked, so I wanted to share mine with the world.

My MLBTR Free Agent Predictions

I came close when I tried to predict the outcome of the World Series and guess what team would win each game, but it was only a 1 in 70 chance, so I'm not expecting much from this contest. Why? If you weigh all the possibilities equally, then there are 1,600 options or a 0.0625% chance of choosing all 50 selections correctly. Granted, it is highly unlikely a player like Albert Pujols will sign with the Pirates, Prince Fielder will retire, or Jose Reyes will go to Japan.

Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert

Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score

Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.

The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.

Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.

Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.

Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?

Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate

I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.

As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.

I understand Albert is probably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.

Pirates Payroll Speculation

The Pittsburgh Pirates have less than four hours before the surge of free agent signings should begin. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Pirates possibilities on October 19th, so the information is now slightly dated. The team has a few holes to fill and many areas which they could improve upon after declining club options for Chris Snyder, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno.

Pirates Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

I gathered the attendance and payroll data from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Buccos attracted more fans this year than they have in the last five years and are reportedly expected to enter 2012 with a payroll above $50 million. This is moderately encouraging as this would be the most they have dedicated to their players' payroll since 2003. I would be more excited if there were more options available on the upcoming free agent market or trading table.

Pirates Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Pirates should be looking for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, corner outfielder, and starting pitcher. I mostly agree with them, but think we have enough depth in the outfield. I would prefer a backup third baseman in case Alvarez does not recover from his sophomore slump. The amount of money the Pirates have to throw around this offseason depends upon where you read. Bucs Dugout predicts a minimum of $33.4 million is already allotted to the current roster, Pirates Prospects suggests $30.16 million, and Raise the Jolly Roger estimates $25 million. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $31.99 million.

This means the Pirates management has a little bit of wiggle room to upgrade at least two positions, hopefully four. If the Buccos maintain a payroll above $50 million, then that leaves $18 million or more for the offseason. Let's see what's available and what they can do.

Free Agent Targets: Catcher

Free Agent Targets: First Base

Free Agent Targets: Shortstop

Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitcher

First and foremost, the likelihood of the Pirates signing a caliber player like Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, or C.J. Wilson is extremely unlikely unless they accepted payment in Heinz ketchup or Yuengling. It is also fairly unlikely they will surrender a first round draft pick for a type A free agent.

Doumit could be offered arbitration, though any of my other three suggestions would be a nice change. Sure, his offensive numbers may have been more impressive overall, but he has not been a full-time catcher since 2008 and his eyes creep me out. Any one of these options could cost somewhere around $3 to $8 million.

The Pirates acknowledged their lineup was power deficient in 2011, so it would be wise to select a big bat to play first base. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer, and Pujols are all type A free agents, which should make the other three choices more available. The Chicago Cubs may not let Carlos Pena go if they are unable to sign a replacement for themselves. I would expect the Pirates to devote $6 to 9 million to first base.

Cedeno is gone. If the Pirates offer him arbitration, then it will probably cost them more than his original $3 million club option. If you disregard Jimmy Rollins and Reyes, then everyone but Nick Punto are type B free agents and should cost anywhere from $3 to $10 million.

The Buccos currently have a starting rotation full of right handers with the loss of Maholm, so picking up a lefty for next year is vital. Signing Wilson is extremely unlikely, but one can dream. Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson would be great additions to an otherwise inexperienced staff, but both are type B free agents and will probably be on the expensive side, possibly $8 to $15 million. Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis would be interesting options, hopefully on the more affordable side, maybe $4 to $8 million.

Pirates 2012 Payroll Estimate

In my fantasy world, the Pirates would acquire Kelly Shoppach, Punto, and Capuano while resigning Lee. The signings would cost the organization $20 million next year, disregarding the possibility of multi-year contracts, for a total payroll of approximately $52 million.