Pirates Shop for New Ace

I talked about the Pittsburgh Pirates options for first base on Friday and concluded they should spend anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million for either Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, or Michael Cuddyer. What is left for a new starting pitcher?

In the best case scenario with a $50 million payroll, the Pirates would have at least $4.5 million to use towards a starting pitcher, which may be enough for a decent option considering Chris Capuano just signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers today for two years at $5 million per season. He was my first choice, but I also had Erik Bedard on my wishlist. Battling Bucs and McEffect are in agreeance with me.

I know I did not go into great detail when I last looked at the starting pitcher market, so let's check out who is still available. Here are all their options (viable or not) sorted by SIERA from last season as well as over the past three seasons. I prefer SIERA to FIP because it weighs strikeouts more heavily, which is something I wish the Pirates organization would desire more from their starting pitchers. This allows the pitchers I want them to acquire to shine much brighter because I want there to be no confusion: I don't want Paul Maholm back in Pittsburgh.

Starting Pitcher Targets over One Season

In addition to those mentioned, the Pirates also seem to be interested in Nippon Professional Baseball league pitchers Wei-Ying Chen (age 26) and Tsuyoshi Wada (30). Their advanced statistics are generally unavailable, but Bradley Woodrum on FanGraphs did crunch the numbers to produce their FIP. Wada received a FIP of 2.64 while Chen scored a 3.33. If these values are accurate to MLB standards, then it would rank them among the top 25 starters in 2011 who qualified. Who knows how they will actually perform in America, but the possibility of an elite pitcher for only $5 million per year is exciting.

Starting Pitcher Targets over Three Seasons

Using a filter of simply anyone better than Maholm, I found the 13 best free agent pitchers still available. Eight were superior to him on both lists, two posted marginal numbers than him last season, and three were slightly better over the past three seasons:

Both Lists	Last Season Only	Both Seasons
Erik Bedard	Kevin Millwood	Joe Pineiro
Rich Harden	Jason Marquis	Aaron Harang
Bartolo Colon		Jeff Francis
Javier Vazquez*
Hiroki Kuroda*
Roy Oswalt*
C.J. Wilson*
Edwin Jackson*		* Too Expensive

I do not expect them to be players for Vazquez, Kuroda, Oswalt, Wilson, or Jackson as their asking prices will certainly be much higher than their budget. That leaves eight pitchers I would be happy to see in black and gold next season. Bedard, Harden, Colon, Millwood, Marquis, Pineiro, Harang, and Francis should cost anywhere from $1 to $6 million per season with a contract length of one or two years. These are feasible choices considering comparable pitchers have already signed contracts this offseason for $3 to $6 million. The pitchers from the Japanese market could request $5 million per season. If the Pirates' payroll is set even higher than $50 million, then it may even be possible to sign two pitchers instead of just the one.

This is ideal as they are affordable short-term investments and should pave the way for their prospects developing in the farm system, but what happens if their payroll becomes less than optimistic? Perhaps they overpay a first baseman, which is not unrealistic as players do not flock to Pittsburgh by choice, and they decide not to expand their payroll much beyond their initially proposed $50 million limit. It could effectively reduce their budget for a starting pitcher to zero. If this occurs, they will have two avenues: stick with their unaltered righty-heavy rotation or get creative. Time for a bake sale.

The Buccos would have plenty of depth at first as well as the outfield, so they may be able to release or trade Garrett Jones to save approximately $2.4 million (arbitration estimate). The other financial aid could come from a trade involving Joel Hanrahan. Closers are in high demand and reaching surprisingly high values. It would be crazy to not at least test the waters, especially as it could remove $4 million (arbitration estimate) from their current payroll and provide new prospects via a trade. Making these moves would have the potential to create $6.4 million that could be used toward a new starting pitcher.

Current/Projected 25-man Rosters. New acquisitions in yellow, positional/role changes in grey.

Optimal Outcome - $56MM
Lee accepts his arbitration offer at the value of $8.5 million and the two most exciting lefties are added to the starting rotation (Bedard and Chen) for $5.25 million each. The moves would shift Jones to the bench, while Correia would assume a role in the bullpen. This would raise their 2012 payroll to approximately $56 million, which is still true to their initial statement of "over $50 million."

Inferior Outcome - $47MM
Lee declines arbitration, which provides them a sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds. They would divert their attention to another first baseman and eventually offer Pena $12 million. Overpaying him triggers a liquidation process, which ships out Jones and Hanrahan. This creates extra finances to sign an extra starting pitcher, but fans are disappointed it is a righty beyond their prime: Millwood. Evan Meek was the second choice for the closer role last season and would likely become the new closer if Hanrahan left. Fans become upset when their payroll fails to meet the promised estimate at the cost of two fan favorites.

Worst Outcome - $43M
Lee declines arbitration and receive their sandwich pick, but none of the other free agent first basemen acknowledge the Pirates' offers. They are forced to use a platoon consisting of Jones, Matt Hague, and Nick Evans. A below average starting pitcher is overpaid who does not utilize strikeouts and fails to provide the needed diversity in a right-handed heavy rotation. Promises of reformation, change, and increasing payroll are ignored by management, which causes outrage.

Can the Pirates find an average or better starting pitcher? Certainly, although I hope they do not succumb to dumpster diving for Aaron Cook.

Pirates Push for Lee

It has been over two months since the regular season ended and one month since the World Series finished. The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the offseason trying to solve their problems in preparation for next season. Thus far they have filled their formerly empty positions at catcher and shortstop with Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes, respectively.

I previously speculated on an idea of how the Pirates could solve their positional woes with the money they were allotted earlier this month. My vision would have spent $8 million to acquire Kelly Shoppach and Nick Punto. I think Barajas was a fine addition as you should gather from my earlier praises, though acquiring Barmes was most surprising.

I do not intend "surprising" to come across as a bad thing; on the contrary, I am actually quite impressed. He may not have been the best in the entire group, however he was the best we could afford. He does not have incredible power or speed, but his defense is well renowned. What little power in his bat may disappear after leaving Coors Field and Minute Maid Park, nevertheless he should still be an upgrade over our former shortstop, Ronny Cedeno.

These two investments will cost the team $9 million in 2012. If Pirates Prospects' 40-Man Roster and Payroll is accurate, then they should have $37 million tied up on their current roster. Beginning the 2012 season with a payroll of $50 million or more should leave at least $13 million to procure a first baseman with power and a starting pitcher or two.

The Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles before the trading deadline and has expressed great interest in retaining him for next season and offered him arbitration, though we are not so sure the feeling is mutual. If Lee declines the arbitration offer, then I would expect the Pirates to abandon Lee, accept the first round compensation pick, and switch their focus to another player.

Many have been talking about Carlos Pena as an alternative to Lee, but there is also Michael Cuddyer. Among these three options for first base, all share near-identical fielding percentages though Cuddyer actually logged more playing time in right field than first. They all logged a positive UZR/150 this past season, though Lee was the only one to post a positive score over the past three seasons (2.9). Run prevention is nice, but I am certain Pirates fans would care more about run production and power.

First Base Targets over One Season

First Base Targets over Three Seasons

Their 2011 performances were extremely similar, but Lee was on the bottom with an OPS of .771, then Cuddyer at .805, and Pena on top with .819. Pena's score is spoiled by his poor batting average (.225), which was a depressing improvement over his previous season (.196). Lee shoots ahead when you look at their statistics over the last three seasons, but he is aging and is unlikely to improve very much from 2011. Each guy is a threat for 20+ home runs as long as they stay healthy.

Pena and Cuddyer both earned close to $10 million in 2011, while Lee earned $7.25 million. If Lee accepts arbitration or a new contract is conjured, then expect him to receive a raise over his 2011 salary. Pirates Prospects estimates it would be over $8.5 million. That said, it would probably take anywhere from $8.5 to $12 million to convince one of these guys to come to Pittsburgh, which has the potential to become the most expensive one year salary in franchise history over Matt Morris who earned over $10 million in 2008.

I will talk about their starting pitching options in my next article rather than only devote a paragraph or two.

Stay tuned.

Pirates Report Card, etc

I have not posted anything recently, but rest assured I did not stop writing. I simply took a small vacation to visit family and friends in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Bill Ivie allowed me to volunteer my work regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates and it was recently published. Please check it out:

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2011/11/24/bd-report-card-pittsburgh-pirates

The website was removed. The article can now be found here: Pirates 2011 Report Card

In more recent news, the St. Louis Cardinals still have not made any public progress with Albert Pujols, while the Pirates signed veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, and offered Derrek Lee arbitration.

Typing on an iPod is not too fun, so don't expect another post until after my return to St. Louis next week.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

If you reference my 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates report card, then you should know they have plenty of room for improvement as they prepare for 2012. Their offense was among the worst in the major leagues with a serious lack of power, while their pitching was only marginally better in comparison. They actually have some money to spend this offseason after a big pick up in attendance this past season and since several players fell off their pay books.

The exact amount they have to spend on free agent signings this offseason will be dependent upon who the Pirates decide to tender in arbitration and how much. If they increase their payroll to $50M, which they previously reported, then they should have approximately $20M of flexibility. Pirates’ general manager, Neil Huntington, reported, "We’re going to non-tender some players that people don’t want us to non-tender. We’re going to tender some players that probably surprise some people." This worries me as this potentially means the team could bring back Ross Ohlendorf for another season who has been adequate at best, and we may lose Garrett Jones who had a fairly productive season while platooning at both first base and right field.

Team options were declined for Paul Maholm ($9.75M), Ryan Doumit ($7.25M), Chris Snyder ($6.75M), and Ronny Cedeno ($3M). The Pirates absorbed $2.2 million to allow them to walk along with their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. The loss of these key players caused the apparent necessity for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, and at least one starting pitcher. The Pirates are lucky to have Neil Walker locked in at second base; Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, et al covering the bullpen; and Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and company protecting the outfield.

There is no chance of Doumit returning as he recently signed with the Minnesota Twins for one year at $3M. The Buccos are not terribly concerned as they locked in Rod Barajas, former catcher of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a one year contract to the tune of $4M with a $3.5M team option for 2013. Veteran shortstop, Clint Barmes, is the most recent free agent signing and is now reportedly under contract for two years at the cost of $10.5M. If these reports are accurate, then they filled their gaps at catcher and shortstop with about $10M to spare for other acquisitions.

The team still desires at least one starting pitcher with Charlie Morton probably beginning the season on the disabled list, Maholm gone, and Ohlendorf hopefully in Pittsburgh’s past. Otherwise they will be relying upon an even younger starting rotation than they used in 2011, which ended poorly as they ran out of steam going into August.

Management acquired Lee and Ludwick before the 2011 trade deadline with the hope to add a much needed power threat in their lineup, but they were riddled by injuries like the rest of the roster. Ludwick should not be pursued this offseason as there is already a major logjam in the outfield, but I bet everyone would love to have Lee back next season. He performed poorly while playing in Baltimore, but played with MVP-like caliber during his brief stint with the Pirates.

The outfield is chock-full of young talent with Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen as their trophy centerpiece. But it doesn't stop there. Starling Marte was protected from the Rule 5 draft and will be their regular center fielder for their Indianapolis AAA team to start 2012, but there are also younger options still developing like Robbie Grossman and Josh Bell who are not quite ready for the Big Show. It is almost mind boggling to realize the Pirates actually have depth at a position, so how do you make them all fit?

It is possible they will ask McCutchen or Marte to shift from center field, but it is equally feasible for them to trade Marte or Presley in an attempt to alleviate this traffic jam and try to strengthen a weaker position. If they somehow manage to retain all of them, then Joel Hanrahan is another possibility as a buy low and sell high trade candidate.

The only position not aforementioned is third base which should have been covered by Pedro Alvarez; however, he had a terrifyingly dismal season and spent nearly two months in the minor league. We can only hope it was his "sophomore slump" and the performance picks up again next season.

There is plenty of talent developing down on the farm, as usually is the case in the Pirates organization, but the question of who we may see make their major league debut in 2012 is a little difficult to distinguish. Marte may make an appearance if a positional opening is made for him, Rudy Owens could fight for a spot in the rotation but it may be difficult if they take his down year in AAA into account, and Matt Hague who was also recently protected from the Rule 5 draft.

I sincerely expect Hague to make his appearance in 2012. He has experience to play first and third base, which may be quite helpful if anyone gets hurt or fails to produce. Hague hits for average with modest power and has incredible patience at the plate. If I had a comparison in mind, I would hope he turns out to become a player similar to Kansas City Royals’ Billy Butler.

The Buccos were a playoff threat and divisional leader this past July, which caused a few fans to regain hope and hop back on the bandwagon. Here’s hoping that 2012 is the year the Pirates once again become an above average team. Perhaps they can reclaim their dominance last seen by fans in 1992.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig

Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.

I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:

Let's start Craig at second base.

Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.

Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.

Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B

If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.

John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.

The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.

Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.