Plan C: Creatively Convert Craig

Cardinals fans everywhere would prefer Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis, but the emergence of a third "mystery team" could have the potential to spoil it. The market for an elite first baseman seems limited to several teams who could both desire and afford him, though a few have already explained they were not interested while others have remained quiet.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I mentioned yesterday how the only more affordable approach for the St. Louis Cardinals to win ballgames either with or without Pujols involved thinking unconventionally, well here it is.

I completely agree with William Tasker from the Flagrant Fan who wants Allen Craig to start every day. He is already 27 and accumulated a WAR of 2.6 over only 219 plate appearances. Just imagine those numbers over the course of a full season. It may happen if the Cards don't resign Pujols, but there is an alternative idea I considered which is identical to William's thought:

Let's start Craig at second base.

Bill James recently released his projections for 2012 and Jeff Zimmerman from RotoGraphs used it to analyze those available to play second base. Surprisingly, somebody requested he include Craig in his projections which ranked him 5th overall while comparing everyone as if they all would accumulate 600 plate appearances.

Although the majority of his defensive work came from the corner outfield positions since his major league debut in 2010, he has logged at least 20 innings at every position besides catcher and shortstop. The majority of his starts in the minor leagues came at third base, though his defense was quite poor and was eventually moved all over the field before settling on the outfield. FanGraphs indicates his UZR/150 was -26.5 in the 42 innings he played at second as a Cardinal and did not post a positive value anywhere besides the outfield, but that is a small sample size.

Rather than bash the notion of him playing second base due to his unproven incapability to defend, let's create some scenarios using the same methods as yesterday. Not only would this allow Craig to start full-time, but it would fill a weak position and allow them to concentrate on positions where there is more depth available in this year's free agency market, such as shortstop and the outfield.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Albert Pujols at 1B

If the Cardinals manage to retain Pujols, use Daniel Descalso at shortstop, and move Craig to second, then that ties up $56.6 million while providing a projection of 21 wins above replacement. If they then decided to sign either Ryan Theriot to start at short or Coco Crisp to cover center field over Jon Jay, then they would only benefit from a half of one win. They could potentially increase their winning probability by signing Rafael Furcal at shortstop and use an internal option as their backup outfielder, like Adron Chambers.

John Mozeliak, the Cardinals general manager, has previously mentioned they do not intend to greatly increase their offer to Albert. He also stated he would not pursue Prince Fielder if talks with Pujols fell through, so this could mean Lance Berkman or Craig could cover first base while the other would be in right field. But if Craig shifts to second base instead, then it opens the outfield to several possibilities.

I speculate a lineup with Allen Craig at 2B and Lance Berkman at 1B

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are arguably the best free agents available on the market behind Pujols and Fielder, so they would be the next best choices. The Cards also desired some depth behind Jay, but there are not many options besides injury-prone Grady Sizemore and Crisp.

The 4th scenario with Pujols would provide the most added wins while also being the most expensive due to the signing of Pujols as well as Furcal. The 1st scenario without Pujols presents the least costly option and cheapest cost per win as they only acquire Beltran and use internal options elsewhere.

Given these eight scenarios, I would prefer the 1st scenario with Pujols but would accept the 3rd scenario without Pujols.

Plan B: Beyond Pujols

I previously asked how much Albert Pujols was worth. Based upon my results, his next contract should range between $17 and $35 million per year. That's an average possibility of $26 million per year. Whether or not you believe he deserves the amount he receives does not matter at this time because it is inevitable. You can blame the lack of a salary cap, but that is something to debate on another day.

The only questions left about Pujols this offseason regard his contract length, location, and if his decline will continue. If you are the St. Louis Cardinals, then I have two more questions for you: Is Albert the best option? If not, then what is the next best choice?

Ryan Campbell from FanGraphs suggested it may be more beneficial to upgrade second base and shortstop, which would allow Lance Berkman to shift to first base and allow Allen Craig to play full-time in the outfield along with Matt Holliday. The Cards may opt to sign cheaper talent or use internal alternatives (Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene) for their middle infield over Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker if Pujols is signed, which would have potential reward as an added possibility.

Roger Hensley from stltoday asked several people, including Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos, "If Albert Pujols were to leave the Cardinals via free agency, what area of the team do you think the Cardinals would most focus on improving with the money saved?" The majority of them suggests upgrades over their middle infield options, though Borowsky adds the necessity of center field depth to assist Jon Jay.

In a bizarre world where Pujols was no longer a Cardinal, Larry specifically chose Clint Barmes for second, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Coco Crisp in center. He goes on to say, "If Albert does sign elsewhere, I hope the Cards won’t feel compelled to throw money around just for appearances’ sake. If they can’t acquire players who actually make the team better, they should just let the payroll drop for a season or two and set the money aside until a worthwhile target comes along."

FanGraphs and Viva El Birdos speculates a lineup without Albert Pujols

I agree with Larry's opinions, especially regarding his final statement. The free agent market is weak this offseason and the money saved from not signing Albert could be better spent on the possibility of a more talented crop of free agents next year. Failure to sign Albert would be a devastating loss to the fans of Cardinal nation, but they should not feel obligated to sign a free agent just for the sake of signing somebody.

If the projections made using FanGraphs, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and Bleacher Report are accurate, then FanGraphs' second scenario without Pujols actually would provide more wins at a cheaper value when compared to his scenario with Albert, while Viva El Birdos' suggestion would provide the cheapest cost at nearly the same cost per win, $2.55/WAR.

I attempted to create my own scenario, but failed to find a more affordable cost per win without thinking creatively or unconventionally.

Matheny is La Russa's Successor

Last week the St. Louis Cardinals had six candidates for their managerial position which opened when Tony La Russa retired. Today Mike Matheny, former catcher, was formally announced as his replacement.

I was not a part of Cardinal nation when Matheny was a part of the team, so I do not have a firsthand appreciation for him. He is described as a great leader and answered questions with surprising eloquence during this morning's press conference, but will he be a great manager? Of course this is difficult to determine because John Mozeliak decided upon the only candidate with no previous managerial experience, though he was a special assistant in player development last year and a minor league instructor the year beforehand.

Cards Diaspora had an interesting list of the candidates and I thought the most interesting possibility was Ryne Sandberg. Why on earth would the Chicago Cubs overlook a Hall of Famer with managing experience in the minor leagues? Terry Francona was the most seasoned option, but may have been overlooked due to his affiliation and recent affinity toward newfound Cubs president, Theo Epstein.

We will find out if he succeeds during the next regular season, but I am wondering about the immediate repercussions. For example, Albert Pujols would supposedly resign with the Cards if Jose Oquendo were elected to be the manager, so did those odds decrease? Oquendo was not selected for the position he interviewed, so will he quietly continue as their third base coach? Will the other coaches and trainers choose to be his subordinates even though a few were actually his superiors years prior?

One offseason question is finally answered, but it causes several other questions.

What is Pujols Worth?

Albert Pujols is a free agent. As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, hearing that may be difficult to swallow, but I finally came to the realization he may not be back next season after hearing he will be visiting with the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.

Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.

Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.

Albert Pujols (red/blue) versus CC Sabathia (navy/white)

Pujols has been an outstanding player ever since he first appeared in the Majors in 2001 and has been superior to Sabathia every season aside from 2011. He has performed fairly consistently over the course of his entire career, though you can see a steep decline since 2009 (since 2008 if you really want to argue a difference of WAR from 9.1 to 9.0 is really a decline).

He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.

So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.

Albert Pujols WAR Projections (Max/Min)

Albert Pujols Salary Projections (Max/Min)

Year	$/Win	Max WAR	Max Value	Min WAR	Min Value
2012	5.00	8.0	$40.00	5.1	$25.50
2013	5.25	7.5	$39.38	4.6	$25.50
2014	5.51	7.0	$38.59	4.1	$24.15
2015	5.79	6.5	$37.62	3.6	$22.60
2016	6.08	6.0	$36.47	3.1	$18.84
2017	6.38	5.5	$35.10	2.6	$16.59
2018	6.70	5.0	$33.50	2.1	$14.07
2019	7.04	4.5	$31.66	1.6	$11.26
2020	7.39	4.0	$29.55	1.1	$8.13
2021	7.76	3.5	$27.15	0.6	$4.65
-	-	57.5	$349.01	28.5	$166.63

A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.

I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.

What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."

New Pirates Catcher Signed

The Pittsburgh Pirates landed a new catcher today in former Los Angeles Dodger, Rod Barajas. He signed a one-year contract valued at $4 million with a 2013 team option worth $3.5 million. I have to be honest, he was not on the top of my list, but I certainly prefer him over Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.

Over the past three seasons, Barajas had the second worst BB/K rate (0.27) among all the free agent catchers, walk percentage (4.8%), and on base percentage (.275). However, he also had the second highest slugging percentage (.424) and second most home runs (52). He has logged the most innings behind home plate among them all (2483.2) and earned the second best Total Zone score (6) with a respectable .994 fielding percentage to boot.

If you can't make heads or tails out of the jumbled paragraph of facts and statistics, then let me lend you my explanation. Barajas is not a very disciplined hitter. He should not reach base nearly as often as Doumit or even Snyder, but he has the capability to hit the ball over the fence at least a few times every season. His defense and longevity sets himself apart from the rest of the pack.

Top Five Free Agent Catchers in 2011, via FunGraphs

Top Five Free Agent Catchers over 3 Seasons, via FunGraphs

Many other Pirates bloggers and analysts would have preferred Ramon Hernandez, obviously because he was the superior choice out of them all, but would have cost them a draft pick as a Type A free agent. I would have stayed away from Jorge Posada given his age, horrendous performance at the plate, and lack of appearances behind the plate last season, though it would have been quite hilarious if we ended up signing him since it would have been a tale of rags to riches, only reversed, and I do enjoy it when a previously successful Yankee succumbs to poverty. I would have still preferred Kelly Shoppach as my catcher, but he may not have been as affordable.

Barajas must have some pretty reasonable defense and slugging to offset his otherwise poor hitting in order to rank himself so highly in this group, third highest WAR this past season and fifth highest over the last three seasons. His price tag was much more cost effective than Doumit and Snyder's options, so I am pretty satisfied by this decision.

To end this post, I want to share this animated gif of Rod Barajas from earlier this season extracted from Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. This alone makes me excited to have such a crazy, weird guy on my team.

Rod Barajas treats Dee Gordon like a baby

Pirates 2011 Report Card

This article was orignally posted by Mr. Bill Ivie on Baseball Digest until the website closed.

The Pirates ended 2010 practically on rock bottom with a 57-105 record. It was their worst season over the course of their 18 season losing streak. Management made a couple promising moves over the offseason, then entered 2011 hoping to rebound from an atrocious season. They started unusually strong and ended July not only above .500, but also in contention to claim the NL Central division. Optimism would be replaced by excitement when they acquired Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick before the trade deadline. Excitement quickly turned into the same despair which Pirates fans have experienced over the last two decades as they suffered from multiple injuries and fell to end the season 72-90. Although the Buccos clinched their 19th consecutive losing season, we saw a ray of hope which caused many fans to hop back on the bandwagon.

Rotation: C-
The opening day rotation consisted of Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald. Ohlendorf strained his shoulder in April which moved Jeff Karstens up from the bullpen. Injuries in August to Correia and Maholm allowed Brad Lincoln and Jeff Locke to each make a few starts.

Correia was acquired over the offseason and signed to a two year deal. He did extremely well in the first half which earned him a questionable spot on the All-Star team, but was miserable after the break and while pitching at home. Maholm actually had one of his best seasons, though you wouldn’t realize it by looking at any conventional statistics. Karstens, Morton, and McDonald each had reasonable seasons, but they were unable to pitch deep into many games. Only McDonald managed a K/9 rate above the league average, but he was also inaccurate with a high BB/9 rate. These pitchers could blame the offense for their lack of run support, but I blame their lack of efficiency.

Bullpen: B+
Joel Hanrahan was the designated closer entering 2011 and he took over the role quite well. He earned his first All-Star selection and ended the season with 40 saves. Evan Meek was weighed down by shoulder tendinitis throughout the season. Jose Veras, Chris Resop, Daniel McCutchen, Tony Watson, and Jason Grilli (obtained from Philadelphia) gobbled the most innings among the Buccos relief pitchers. Each of them posted a K/9 above 8 except Daniel. Amazingly, Resop, Grilli, and Veras were among the top 30 relievers in regards to their K/9 rates at 10.21, 10.19, and 10.01, respectively. Joe Beimel, Daniel Moskos, and Chris Leroux also made their share of appearances throughout the season, though Beimel was not very effective.

Insufficient outings by the Pirates' starting pitchers inevitably overworked their young bullpen and caused the team to falter toward the end of the season.

Catchers: D+
The Pirates' backstop position was plagued by injuries this season as they cycled through the use of Ryan Doumit, Chris Snyder, and Michael McKenry. McKenry was acquired from Boston in June and received the majority of the innings behind homeplate, which was disappointing considering Doumit and Snyder combined for a salary over $11 million, about 20% of the team’s payroll. Doumit provided the best offense among the three, which is typical for him, but he just can not stay healthy over long periods of time while playing as the catcher anymore.

Infield: C-
The Buccos were either injury prone or inconsistent across the infield for the majority of the season. Their only cornerstone was second basemen, Neil Walker, who had a decent all-around season. Ronny Cedeno had an average season at the plate by his standards, which is still quite bad, though his defense at shortstop did improve. Both players received nominations for a Gold Glove, though neither won.

Pedro Alvarez was dubbed the starting third basemen on opening day, but he just could not find his swing and spent the majority of the season struggling, hurt, or in the minors. In his absence, Brandon Wood and Josh Harrison each had equal opportunity in the hot corner. Wood provided better defense, while Harrison was a more consistent hitter. Chase d'Arnaud also logged some time to back them up as well as Cedeno, but he was equally disappointing both on and off the field.

Lyle Overbay and Garrett Jones platooned at first. Jones had a decent season and recorded the second most homers for the team. Overbay did a great job fielding at first, but had a poor year at the plate. He was released soon after Derrek Lee was acquired from the Orioles. Lee would have been the offensive power the Pirates were after, but he hit the DL and only played 28 games. His WAR was equal to Jones (0.9) even though he played a fraction of his season with the Pirates.

Outfield: B+
The situations in left and center field were originally handled by Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen, respectively, but Tabata spent nearly two months nursing an injured quad. Right field consisted of another platoon with Jones and Matt Diaz. McCutchen had another great season, even though his batting average did sink a little; Jones did fine filling in roles at first and right; Tabata did well while he was healthy; and Diaz left much desired offensively and on the field. He was eventually traded after acquiring Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick hit the DL shortly after he was obtained and did not make the same impact as Lee. Xavier Paul and Alex Presley did their share of playing the corner outfield once it was realized Diaz could not play and Tabata was injured. Both played the field well, but Presley trumped Paul with better offense.


Top Offensive Player
Andrew McCutchen easily led the Pirates offensively with a WAR of 5.7. He ended the season as the team leader in practically every offensive category: home runs, runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. Although his batting average was down and his strikeout rate was up compared to previous years, his on base percentage stayed about the same due to an increased walk rate. An increased slugging percentage and isolated power rating may indicate we could expect more homers from him in seasons to come.

Top Pitcher
This may be arguable, but I believe Joel Hanrahan had the greatest impact on the mound this year for the Pirates. Not only do the conventional statistics support his performance (40 saves, 1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), but so do the advanced metrics (8.0 K/9, 3.81 K/BB, .282 BABIP, 2.18 FIP, 2.73 SIERA, 2.98 xFIP). His 2.0 WAR ranked 7th among qualified relief pitchers, 4th among team closers behind only Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, and Mariano Rivera.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

AATH_Baseball on Twitter

I did something today I told myself I would never do...

Analysis around the Horn is now on Twitter.

http://www.twitter.com/AATH_Baseball

The link can also be found in the Twitter tab below the logo.

All are welcome to join and encouraged to share with your friends.

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

I invite anyone who participated in MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediciton Contest to share their predictions. All choices are now locked, so I wanted to share mine with the world.

My MLBTR Free Agent Predictions

I came close when I tried to predict the outcome of the World Series and guess what team would win each game, but it was only a 1 in 70 chance, so I'm not expecting much from this contest. Why? If you weigh all the possibilities equally, then there are 1,600 options or a 0.0625% chance of choosing all 50 selections correctly. Granted, it is highly unlikely a player like Albert Pujols will sign with the Pirates, Prince Fielder will retire, or Jose Reyes will go to Japan.

Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert

Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score

Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.

The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.

Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.

Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.

Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?

Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate

I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.

As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.

I understand Albert is probably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.

Pirates Payroll Speculation

The Pittsburgh Pirates have less than four hours before the surge of free agent signings should begin. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Pirates possibilities on October 19th, so the information is now slightly dated. The team has a few holes to fill and many areas which they could improve upon after declining club options for Chris Snyder, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno.

Pirates Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

I gathered the attendance and payroll data from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Buccos attracted more fans this year than they have in the last five years and are reportedly expected to enter 2012 with a payroll above $50 million. This is moderately encouraging as this would be the most they have dedicated to their players' payroll since 2003. I would be more excited if there were more options available on the upcoming free agent market or trading table.

Pirates Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Pirates should be looking for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, corner outfielder, and starting pitcher. I mostly agree with them, but think we have enough depth in the outfield. I would prefer a backup third baseman in case Alvarez does not recover from his sophomore slump. The amount of money the Pirates have to throw around this offseason depends upon where you read. Bucs Dugout predicts a minimum of $33.4 million is already allotted to the current roster, Pirates Prospects suggests $30.16 million, and Raise the Jolly Roger estimates $25 million. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $31.99 million.

This means the Pirates management has a little bit of wiggle room to upgrade at least two positions, hopefully four. If the Buccos maintain a payroll above $50 million, then that leaves $18 million or more for the offseason. Let's see what's available and what they can do.

Free Agent Targets: Catcher

Free Agent Targets: First Base

Free Agent Targets: Shortstop

Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitcher

First and foremost, the likelihood of the Pirates signing a caliber player like Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, or C.J. Wilson is extremely unlikely unless they accepted payment in Heinz ketchup or Yuengling. It is also fairly unlikely they will surrender a first round draft pick for a type A free agent.

Doumit could be offered arbitration, though any of my other three suggestions would be a nice change. Sure, his offensive numbers may have been more impressive overall, but he has not been a full-time catcher since 2008 and his eyes creep me out. Any one of these options could cost somewhere around $3 to $8 million.

The Pirates acknowledged their lineup was power deficient in 2011, so it would be wise to select a big bat to play first base. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer, and Pujols are all type A free agents, which should make the other three choices more available. The Chicago Cubs may not let Carlos Pena go if they are unable to sign a replacement for themselves. I would expect the Pirates to devote $6 to 9 million to first base.

Cedeno is gone. If the Pirates offer him arbitration, then it will probably cost them more than his original $3 million club option. If you disregard Jimmy Rollins and Reyes, then everyone but Nick Punto are type B free agents and should cost anywhere from $3 to $10 million.

The Buccos currently have a starting rotation full of right handers with the loss of Maholm, so picking up a lefty for next year is vital. Signing Wilson is extremely unlikely, but one can dream. Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson would be great additions to an otherwise inexperienced staff, but both are type B free agents and will probably be on the expensive side, possibly $8 to $15 million. Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis would be interesting options, hopefully on the more affordable side, maybe $4 to $8 million.

Pirates 2012 Payroll Estimate

In my fantasy world, the Pirates would acquire Kelly Shoppach, Punto, and Capuano while resigning Lee. The signings would cost the organization $20 million next year, disregarding the possibility of multi-year contracts, for a total payroll of approximately $52 million.

Hibernation

Autumn has its stranglehold upon the trees, the temperature is dropping, and my muscles feel stiff. Baseball season is officially over.

I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.

This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.

In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.

Why so glum?

Offseason Entertainment:
 MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
 Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
 ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
 Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
 World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
 Baseball Mogul 2012: here.

Personal Offseason Projects:
 Pirates Payroll Speculation
 Cardinals Payroll Speculation
 Payroll Win Efficiency
 Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
 Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
 League Realignment Proposal
 League Expansion Proposal
 Playoff Expansion Proposal

Correction:
 The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.

Surreal, Unreal

Yesterday was the St. Louis Cardinals' 2011 World Series celebration. My girlfriend, Linda, and I were in queue to get our tickets on Saturday afternoon at 2:15 pm, then finally bought two at 2:50 pm. Luckily they did not sell out before then, otherwise we would have missed an incredible experience.

Surreal.

We arrived at 1:30 pm, keep in mind the parade did not start until 4. After walking along the parade route for a little while, we could not find any openings next to the railing. We were too late for a front row spot, so we decided to sit on a brick wall in front of some bushes. Not only did it give us a place to sit down over the next two hours while we waited for the celebration to begin, but it allowed us to overlook the enormous sea of red that laid between us and the parade route.

Our spot on the parade route, 1:45 pm

Panorama from our spot on the parade route, 4:00 pm

Unfortunately, the first few photos from the parade were a little blurry, but switching my camera from landscape to sports mode seemed to work fairly well. I did my best to caption each photo based the name on the vehicle or if I could recognize them. Please correct me if I was wrong anywhere.


Less than 24 hours after Tony La Russa made his speech in Busch Stadium, he announced his retirement. I had suspected TLR would hold off on his own contract until he saw where Albert Pujols would land. I was not expecting the announcement at all and now the Cards have an opening for their manager position in 2012.

Unreal.

I read many posts and news articles over the course of the 2011 season questioning if he should retire. Some suggested he should have retired after the 2006 season to finish on top. He showed all his disbelievers by not only exiting on top, but earning his third World Series championship of his managerial career in the most dramatic fashion imaginable.

La Russa managed the Chicago White Sox from 1979 to 1986, the Oakland Athletics from 1986 to 1995, and the St. Louis Cardinals from 1996 to 2011. He ends his managerial career with 2,728 wins (3rd all-time), 2,365 losses, and a .536 winning percentage. He earned three AL Pennants and one World Series title with the A's, three NL Pennants and two World Series titles with the Cardinals, and will almost certainly be inducted to the Hall of Fame.

Congratulations, Tony.
Thank you, from this blog writer and the rest of Cardinal Nation.

Baseball Euphoria

So this is what it feels like to be a winner. I'll be honest, it feels amazing.

Cards celebrate in the locker room after winning World Series, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

They need to replace the sign along interstate 70 when you cross the bridge into Missouri. It should read "Welcome to St. Louis, Home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Baseball Euphoria."

If you had the privilege to experience everything this season like I did, then you would have suffered from the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training, endured frustrating blown saves by Ryan Franklin, questioned the authenticity of Albert Pujols's poor start, cherished the production from veteran Lance Berkman, were saddened by every loss earned by Chris Carpenter, coped with the rise and fall from Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan, were grateful Jaime Garcia did not have a "sophomore slump," held your breath when Albert was injured in June, exhaled a sigh of relief when he returned in July, wondered why they were battling with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the division, withstood the revolving door of several closers in the bullpen, were skeptical when Colby Rasmus was traded, distressed over the injury-prone seasons of Matt Holliday and David Freese, thoroughly enjoyed when Albert started playing like Albert again, watched with disbelief as the Milwaukee Brewers surged past them for the division lead, looked forward to next season when the Cards were 10 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card, were hopefully optimistic when the Braves slumped, joyful when the Cards won their final game of the regular season, and elated when the Braves were removed from the picture.

The St. Louis Cardinals entire season had it all.

The Cardinals were underdogs entering every series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers, and Texas Rangers. Different heroes surfaced in almost every series: Jon Jay, Jason Motte, David Freese, Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter in the NLDS; Albert Pujols, Jon Jay, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Yadier Molina, and David Freese in the NLCS; and Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, and David Freese in the World Series.

The 2011 World Series had it all.

St. Louis Cardinals Postseason Progress Reviewed, Photo via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Everyone contributed at some point over the course of the September and into the October postseason, and that is what made this team unique. Baseball drama at its finest.

Congratulations to Tony La Russa and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

Eleven

The St. Louis Cardinals are World Series Champions for the 11th time in their franchise history.

2011 World Series Trophy, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Now, if you excuse me, I'm heading to Dick's Sporting Goods with my girlfriend for our Championship gear!

Cards Depend on Carp, Game 7

I am still extremely excited after last night's game, so this post will be brief using an assortment of great links.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: The way most of us watched Game 6...
"This is exactly what the 2011 Cardinals are all about: drama. They’re up, they’re down, they’re underground, but they are never boring. And they LOVE playing from behind."

Beyond the Box Score: David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History
"The returns are in... David Freese now owns the highest WPA in a WS game. His .953 beats Kirk Gibson's .870."

Beyond the Box Score: Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
"We are no longer in the realm of simple probability. ... We now live in a quantum realm where Texas' and St. Louis' title hopes are both alive and dead simultaneously. It is our very observation of the final out that will collapse the wave function (and possibly the Rangers' bullpen) and present us with one of two realities. ... In other words, just watch the game. Watch history in the making."

FanGraphs: Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison
"Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful."


I am a little nervous with Chris Carpenter taking the mound on short rest, but I would have chosen him given the other options (Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Jake Westbrook). My girlfriend and I will definitely be out with the rest of St. Louis tonight. We want to be part of this moment.

Will Carp be masterful like in game five of the NLDS or will he flounder on short rest?

Carp Flourishing, via USA Today

Carp Floundering, via Steve Creek Outdoors

Roller Coaster of Emotion

I probably could summarize all eleven innings of game six with just one word: Wow!


Source: FanGraphs
FanGraphs chose a different, but equally fitting, word: Baseball!

I tried to explain the graph to a friend last night while I was still experiencing this rush. Picture the graph as a roller coaster. Hop in the car on the leftside of the graph and ride it out until you reach the end.

What a crazy ride.

I want to give this game the dignity it deserves as one of the most intense World Series games of all time and the best game I ever had the opportunity to watch on television. It would have been a close second if I actually was in attendance at Busch Stadium (like my girlfriend's brother, Sam, or Aaron Hooks from Cards Diaspora), but the position would still be reserved for the 1994 All Star game I saw with my father.

Jaime Garcia had a shaky start. He allowed the first three batters to reach base and surrendered a run to the Texas Rangers offense in the first inning. The St. Louis Cardinals quickly responded with a Lance Berkman two-run home run. The 2-1 lead would be very short-lived as Garcia allowed a second earned run in the second inning to tie the game.

Colby Lewis started shutting down the Cards offense one-by-one and Garcia finally seemed to settle down by throwing a scoreless third inning, but he was gone by the fourth in lieu of the TLR bullpen pitching parade (I need to coin that term).

The Cards stopped following lesson number two from my Survival Guide: "Stop making mistakes." Matt Holliday dropped a routine fly ball, Fernando Salas overthrew a force out at second base, and David Freese dropped an infield pop up. These three errors resulted in two unearned runs.

Luckily, the Rangers made a few blunders of their own. Michael Young bobbled a ground ball and Elvis Andrus tossed a ball wide of first base, which pulled Young off the bag. The Cards managed to tie the game with two unearned runs for themselves and exited the sixth inning 4-4.

Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz each homered in the top of the seventh, then scored once more thanks in part to a wild pitch by Octavio Dotel before finally getting out of the inning with the score 7-4.

Derek Holland entered the game as a reliever earlier during the sixth inning. Many thought his pitching had become infallible after pitching an 8.1 inning gem in game four, then 1.2 innings of solid relief in game six. Allen Craig changed their minds with a solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning to bring the score to 7-5.

Everyone seemed depressed and morbid as Neftali Feliz entered the bottom of the ninth inning. He struck out the first batter he faced, then Albert Pujols came to the plate. The announcers mentioned, once again, this may be Pujol's last at bat as a Cardinal. He delivered with a double, his first and only hit of the World Series outside of game three. Berkman was intentionally walked and Craig struck out, which led to David Freese. He fell behind in the count to 1-2, then tripled to deep right field to tie the game. We move on to 10th!

Jason Motte remained in the game in the 10th for his second inning of relief. He retired the first batter he faced, then allowed a single, and Josh Hamilton swatted a home run to right field with the first pitch he saw. Motte retired the next two batters and exited the inning with a score of 9-7 as the potential losing pitcher.

Darren Oliver entered the game for the Rangers to face against several of the weakest Cardinals hitters. I was nervous. Daniel Descalso singled, Jon Jay singled, and Kyle Lohse hit the weirdest bunt I have ever seen that flew over Beltre's head to advance both runners. Scott Feldman relieved Oliver and Ryan Theriot grounded out, but it sent a run home. Albert came to the plate with a runner third base and two outs. I thought this could be his defining moment, then they walked him. Berkman responded with a clutch single to score the tying run. Onward to the 11th!

Jake Westbrook entered the 11th inning and allowed one single; otherwise, he was great. He provided the greatest WPA among all of the Cardinals pitchers used in the game and the score remained tied.

Freese returned to the plate in the bottom of the eleventh inning as the first batter to face Mark Lowe, the Rangers new relief pitcher. I could tell he was swinging for the fences after he nearly fell over for the first strike, so I decided to retrieve our secret weapon:

Rally "Squirrel"

Meet Harrison. He is our Rally Gerbil since no squirrels were within reach.

Freese worked the count to 3-2, then launched a game-winning and series-tying solo homer to almost dead center field measured at 428 feet. The Cardinals win, 10-9! The stadium erupted as he rounded the bases and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate who proceeded to tear his jersey off his body.

Harrison was rewarded with a pumpkin seed for being such a good luck charm.

David Freese takes a bow after his Game 6 heroics, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

The World Series will be decided in game seven! Will the Cards take their 11th World Series title or will the Rangers earn their first?

St. Louis Cardinals Survival Guide

Lessons to learn from playing the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

1) Get on base however you can. "Walks are good."

2) Stop making mistakes. "Errors are bad, especially when the game is on the line."

3) Fly balls are great when they travel 400 feet. "Home runs are good. They score runs."

4) No free passes. "Walks are bad. Seven walks in one game is terrible."

5a) Stop stranding runners. "Every run counts."

5b) Listen to the manager. "Albert is great, but he is not a player-manager."

5c) Can you hear the manager? "Warm up Motte. I said, 'MOTTE!'"

Busch Stadium before Game 6, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Good luck tonight, fellas.