2011 Playoff Predictions

September started with the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers guaranteed a winning season of .500 or better. In retrospect, only the Royals and Astros were guaranteed losing records at that point. Eight teams were already knocked out of contention for the playoffs and eight were circling the drain to join them, which left 14 still competing for a shot at the postseason.

August 31, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Boston	83	52	.615	-	729	565	98.8	63.2	61.9	37.5	99.4
New York	81	53	.604	1.5	732	538	97.9	64.1	38.0	60.7	98.7
Tampa Bay	74	61	.548	9.0	575	511	87.1	74.9	0.2	1.6	1.7
Toronto	68	68	.500	15.5	640	623	80.3	81.7	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	54	80	.403	28.5	567	706	64.1	97.9	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	75	61	.551	-	614	608	88.8	73.2	82.1	<0.1	82.1
Cleveland	68	65	.511	5.5	565	576	82.7	79.3	8.5	<0.1	8.5
Chicago	68	66	.507	6.0	544	546	83.0	79.0	9.4	<0.1	9.4
Minnesota	57	79	.419	18.0	523	671	67.4	94.6	0	0	0
Kansas City	56	81	.409	19.5	596	657	68.2	93.8	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	77	60	.562	-	689	591	91.2	70.8	82.9	0.1	83.0
Los Angeles	73	63	.537	3.5	552	528	87.1	74.9	17.1	0.2	17.3
Oakland	60	76	.441	16.5	536	576	72.8	89.2	<0.1	0	<0.1
Seattle	58	77	.430	18.0	470	555	69.5	92.5	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	86	46	.652	-	599	429	104.9	57.1	98.4	1.6	99.9
Atlanta	80	55	.593	7.5	554	490	94.2	67.8	1.6	96.1	97.7
New York	65	69	.485	22.0	592	607	78.6	83.4	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	63	71	.470	24.0	514	548	76.2	85.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Florida	60	75	.444	27.5	524	602	71.1	90.9	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	81	56	.591	-	605	551	94.8	67.2	98.5	0.2	98.7
St. Louis	72	64	.529	8.5	634	591	85.4	76.6	1.5	1.8	3.3
Cincinnati	67	69	.493	13.5	629	593	81.5	80.5	0.1	0.1	0.1
Pittsburgh	62	74	.456	18.5	519	577	73.8	88.2	0	0	0
Chicago	59	78	.431	22.0	553	659	70.3	91.7	0	0	0
Houston	47	90	.343	34.0	528	674	57.5	104.5	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	78	59	.569	-	612	573	91.3	70.7	95.2	0.1	95.2
San Francisco	72	65	.526	6.0	460	483	83.7	78.3	4.5	0.2	4.7
Los Angeles	65	70	.481	12.0	524	520	79.3	82.7	0.3	<0.1	0.3
Colorado	64	73	.467	14.0	626	642	76.2	85.8	<0.1	0	<0.1
San Diego	60	77	.438	18.0	514	529	72.2	89.8	<0.1	0	<0.1

Information from coolstandings.

W- Wins, L- Losses, PCT- Winning Percentage, GB- Games Back, RS- Runs Scored, RA- Runs Allowed, EXPW- Expected season Wins, EXPL- Expected season Losses, DIV- Chance of winning the Division, WC- Chance of winning the Wild Card, POFF- Chance of making the Playoffs.

A few teams seemed too far gone, so I thought the only real race was in the AL West division between the Rangers and Angels. It seemed the only other question was deciding who would be the AL East champion or Wild Card berth, the Yankees or Red Sox. All the other slots for the playoffs seemed predetermined.

American League National League

Detroit  at Boston/New York Arizona  at Philadelphia

New York/Boston (wc)  at Texas/Los Angeles Atlanta (wc)  at Milwaukee

Or so I thought.

September 12, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
New York	88	57	.607	-	785	585	98.0	64.0	85.0	14.1	99.1
Boston	85	61	.582	3.5	783	638	93.9	68.1	13.9	74.3	88.2
Tampa Bay	81	64	.559	7.0	625	546	89.7	72.3	1.1	10.3	11.4
Toronto	74	73	.503	15.0	687	686	81.1	80.9	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	58	87	.400	30.0	614	765	64.2	97.8	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	84	62	.575	-	692	646	92.9	69.1	99.9	<0.1	99.9
Chicago	73	72	.503	10.5	590	606	81.6	80.4	<0.1	0	<0.1
Cleveland	72	72	.500	11.0	608	642	80.7	81.3	<0.1	0	<0.1
Kansas City	62	86	.419	23.0	650	711	69.1	92.9	0	0	0
Minnesota	59	87	.404	25.0	556	716	65.8	96.2	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	83	64	.565	-	765	632	91.9	70.1	84.8	0.3	85.1
Los Angeles	80	66	.548	2.5	599	564	88.5	73.5	15.2	0.9	16.1
Oakland	66	80	.452	16.5	593	629	73.7	88.3	0	0	0
Seattle	61	85	.418	21.5	500	600	67.8	94.2	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	94	49	.657	-	653	464	106.4	55.6	99.9	<0.1	100.0
Atlanta	84	63	.571	12.0	595	543	92.0	70.0	<0.1	93.1	93.1
New York	71	75	.486	24.5	651	669	78.4	83.6	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	67	77	.465	27.5	559	603	75.0	87.0	0	0	0
Florida	66	79	.455	29.0	578	638	73.4	88.6	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	86	62	.581	-	645	587	94.0	68.0	98.8	0.2	99.0
St. Louis	79	67	.541	6.0	679	628	87.6	74.4	1.2	6.5	7.7
Cincinnati	71	75	.486	14.0	673	644	80.2	81.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Pittsburgh	66	80	.452	19.0	550	624	72.9	89.1	0	0	0
Chicago	64	82	.438	21.0	596	697	71.4	90.6	0	0	0
Houston	49	97	.336	36.0	555	718	55.4	106.6	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	85	62	.578	-	662	615	93.1	68.9	99.8	<0.1	99.8
San Francisco	76	70	.521	8.5	492	511	83.8	78.2	0.2	0.2	0.4
Los Angeles	72	73	.497	12.0	565	558	80.5	81.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
Colorado	69	77	.473	15.5	671	683	76.9	85.1	0	0	0
San Diego	63	84	.429	22.0	549	572	70.2	91.8	0	0	0

Information from coolstandings.

The Red Sox stopped winning and let the Yankees overtake the lead in the AL East, while the Rays have exploded back into contention. The Tigers won nine straight and pulled ahead of the AL West for possible home field advantage. The Angels closed the gap on the Rangers by one game.

The Phillies maintained their winning ways and nearly clinched the NL East; meanwhile, the Cardinals swept the Braves and the Brewers lost five straight to make the races for the NL Wild Card and NL Central more interesting. The Braves dropped eight of their last 11, while the Cards have a five game winning streak. The Diamondbacks continue to astound and are very close to winning the NL West.

Twelve teams have lost their chance at the postseason, seven teams need a miracle, which leave 11 teams left in the actual race. Coolstandings uses a variation of Bill James' "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball" to predict the likelihood of a team winning their respectable division, wild card, or reaching the playoffs.

AL East: New York - 85.0%, Boston - 13.9%, Tampa Bay - 1.1%

AL Central: Detroit - 99.9%

AL West: Texas - 84.8%, Los Angeles - 15.2%

AL Wild Card: Boston - 74.3%, Tampa Bay - 10.3%, Los Angeles - 0.9%

NL East: Philadelphia - 99.9%

NL Central: Milwaukee - 98.8%, St. Louis - 1.2%

NL West: Arizona - 99.8%

NL Wild Card: Atlanta - 93.1%, St. Louis - 6.5%

That said, how freaky would it be to wake up in October and see something like this?

American League

National League

Tampa Bay (wc)

at Detroit

St. Louis (wc)

at Philadelphia

Texas

at Boston

Milwaukee

at Arizona

Predictable statistics is great, but I love seeing the improbable Cinderella stories even more.