Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Pujols Best Performance in Cardinals Playoff History

Pip over at Fungoes posted a few days ago noting the best performances by Cardinals players in the playoffs and the addition of three players from this year's NLDS series: Ryan Theriot and Albert Pujols in game 3, then David Freese in game 4.

After tonight's game in Milwaukee, I am certain he will likely expand on this thought. The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-3 to tie the NLCS 1-1. Pujols recorded four hits (three doubles and a home run) over five at bats and scored three times while knocking in five.


8.0 Runs Created. Amazing.

It was a tremendous performance, which actually eclipsed his performance on Tuesday (6.0) and breaks the previous record of 7.2 set by Larry Walker in 2004.

See you in St. Louis for game 3 on Wednesday.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Visual Analysis

Most of us understand statistics a little easier when provided a visual example, such as a chart or graph. Kevin Dame, a writer, visual designer, and infographics editor with SB Nation, takes it to creative extremes.


I finally decided to renounce my subscription to SB Nation, but had to stay connected with Mr. Dame's section. I hope you appreciate his visual analysis as much as I do. I have already provided an example of his once this week, but here are two more posted recently that deserves praise:

Comparing Brewers And Cardinals Pitching
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals

Albert vs. Prince


















Subscribe and/or bookmark Kevin Dame.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

NLCS: Cardinals vs. Brewers

Kevin Dame has been creatively blogging using Wordle at SB Nation, so I thought I would try it out.

Cardinals/Brewers, NLCS Wordle

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at Miller Park. The Cardinals plan to send Jaime Garcia to the mound, while the Brewers intend to use Zack Greinke. Garcia owns a 1.93 ERA with one win and one no-decision after two starts this year against the Brewers. Greinke is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA against the Cardinals in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 201 SO)

Honestly, we can look at pitching lines all day long, but it may not matter because the most noticeable statistical difference lies in their records at home and away.

Milwaukee Brewers: 96-66 (.593)
Home: 57-24 (.704)
Away: 39-42 (.481)

St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (.556)
Home: 45-36 (.556)
Away: 45-36 (.556)

The Brewers performed extremely well at home in Miller Park during the regular season, yet they actually had a losing record while on the road. They were, of course, the only playoff team to do so. Meanwhile the Cardinals were very consistent maintaining identical records while at home and away. These habits seem to continue thus far while both teams competed in their divisional series.

Milwaukee Brewers: 3-2
Home: 3-0
Away: 0-2

St. Louis Cardinals: 3-2
Home: 1-1
Away: 2-1

The Cardinals and Brewers split their record during the season (9-9), but the Cards did manage to record a sweep in Milwaukee. It would be wise for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to provide top-notch performances in this series as this may be the All Star first basemen's last opportunity to increase their upcoming free agency values.

Given all this information, I would have to say the Cards have a small advantage or at least an equal chance to take the NLCS from the Brewers again a la 1982 style.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Little Guys

Chris Carpenter pitched flawlessly over nine innings against the Houston Astros on September 28th to set the St. Louis Cardinals up to take the National League Wild Card.

He only pitched three innings on October 2nd against the Philadelphia Phillies on short rest, but the Cards still won while employing their entire bullpen.

Tonight, he pitched another gem as he shut out the Phillies to win their NLDS series. The Cards only scored one run against Roy Halladay, but that's all they needed. They move on to face the Brewers in Milwaukee in the NLCS on Sunday, October 9th.

The Tigers overtook the overpriced Yankees yesterday and the Cards beat the Phillies today. Monetarily, that means $105.7 M defeated $202.7 M and $105.4 M beat $173.0 M, respectively.

I love it when the little guys kick the bigger guys in their wallets. Don't you?

Cardinals and Phillies, Game 5 Tonight

Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
vs.
Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

I choose to not overanalyze this matchup. Tune in and watch the game tonight at 7:37 p.m. CST.

Go Cardinals!

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Cards 2011 Regular Season Finale

What a wild card race! No analysis yet. I've been far too busy enjoying the good and the bad.


The good.

The bad.
Game 162 is tonight, so tune in and let's see how the regular season ends!

Friday, September 16, 2011

Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
March 31, 2011 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
April 31, 2011 106 21 26 1 0 7 18 10 11 0.305 0.453 0.758 0.245
This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
May 23, 2011 190 30 51 5 0 8 26 20 20 0.340 0.421 0.761 0.268
Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
June 19, 2011 280 52 78 11 0 17 45 32 25 0.355 0.500 0.855 0.279
Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
July 12, 2011 300 54 84 12 0 18 50 35 27 0.357 0.500 0.857 0.280
The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
August 11, 2011 412 78 117 21 0 28 72 39 41 0.348 0.539 0.887 0.284
Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
September 16, 2011 521 94 154 25 0 35 93 58 52 0.366 0.545 0.911 0.296
Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?


The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston.
First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies: 248 AB / 64 games = 3.875 AB/g
Mets: 266 AB / 68 games = 3.912 AB/g
Cubs: 621 AB / 171 games = 3.632 AB/g
Astros: 639 AB / 174 games = 3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Phillies 248 40 67 14 1 12 42 31 25 0.350 0.480 0.829 0.270
Citizens Bank 89 20 29 5 0 9 21 10 7 0.382 0.685 1.068 0.326
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.405 0.610 1.015 0.320

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Mets 266 49 80 21 0 20 61 39 35 0.391 0.605 0.996 0.301
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.429 0.616 1.045 0.331

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Cubs 621 124 190 34 2 53 135 102 68 0.408 0.623 1.032 0.306
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.428 0.617 1.046 0.330

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Astros 639 120 200 38 2 42 111 95 67 0.405 0.576 0.981 0.313
Minute Maid 341 66 107 15 2 24 49 43 40 0.393 0.581 0.973 0.314
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.407 0.608 1.015 0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.30 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.380 0.580 0.960 0.302
Mets AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.426 0.612 1.039 0.326
Cubs AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.18 0.10 0.423 0.618 1.041 0.322
Astros AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.31 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.398 0.583 0.980 0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction 570 104 170 28 0 38 103 66 57 0.371 0.551 0.922 0.298














Custom Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction  570 104 169 28 0 39 103 65 57 0.370 0.550 0.919 0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Salutations!

Hello, and welcome to Analysis around the Horn. I hope to use this blog as a means to purvey my thoughts in relation to the Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, and baseball analysis.

My father raised me as an avid baseball fan. We attended more baseball games than I could possibly count, including memorable and life-changing games such as the 1994 All Star Game; the final game at Three Rivers Stadium before it was demolished to make way for PNC Park in 2000; and attending games in Florida, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and San Francisco.

I only played three years of baseball during my childhood, and I was terrible at it. I always embraced the statistical nature of the sport, even creating my own fantasy baseball league when I was only ten years old before I knew fantasy baseball existed. It was exciting once I finally discovered it in magazines and online. I graduated with a bachelors of science degree in business from Penn State Fayette in 2007 and from Frazier High School in 2002.

My love of baseball took a hit during the Pirates losing skid after their first place finish in 1992, their last winning season to date. It was frustrating to see them acquire young talent during this timeframe, and then trade them away. We lost (semi) memorable players likes Barry Bonds, Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Aramis Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Jose Bautista. Sadly, I could make this list longer. It seemed management had no intention or ambition to create a winning team.

During this 18-year span, the Steelers made 12 playoff appearances and won the Super Bowl twice. The Penguins were division champions four times, conference champions twice, and won the Stanley Cup once. Many of my friends have given up on the Pirates and baseball due to the lack of a salary cap.

I agree it seems unfair in a world where the Yankees maintain a payroll of $196 million, while the Pirates only pay $45 million. But consider the following, the Rays have the second lowest payroll ($41 million) and owns the 9th best record in the majors. Meanwhile the Cubs have the 6th highest payroll ($126 million) and is tied for the 6th worse record in the majors. It goes to show that money isn’t everything.

The 2010 season seemed to prove my theory regarding Pirates’ management and marked the third most losses in Pirates franchise history, which made my move to St. Louis in November all the more easier. I joked to friends and family the Pirates would start winning and Albert Pujols would be traded once I made the transition into Cardinals nation. It seemed so farfetched.

The 2011 season has been full of excitement and heartaches. Trade rumors have been swirling around Albert since spring training. The Cards lost their ace, Adam Wainwright, to surgery before the season began and their closer, Ryan Franklin, imploded to cost the team at least four losses to start the season. Players across both leagues were taking trips to the disabled list like it was the new Disney World.

Meanwhile, the Pirates actually started winning games. Their season peaked on July 19th where they were 7 games over .500 and first in the division, then actually made some positive moves before the trade deadline. It felt like I was going to be metaphorically eating my hat by the end of the season, and then the Pirates were robbed due to the infamous botched call by Jerry Meals. Something must have snapped in the Pirates clubhouse because the wheels stopped turning after that night and they started to free fall.

Many of my Facebook rants went unnoticed, thus a more public domain became a personal necessity and here we are today. Thanks for visiting!