The Miami Marlins and Lucrative Spending

I preemptively answered this question asked by my sister's boyfriend regarding the Miami Marlins on Monday:

Hey Ryan,
I wanted to get your thoughts on the Marlin's new acquisitions in Jose Reyes and Heath Bell.

Hi Neil,
I think Reyes will be a good pick as long as he stays healthy and Hanley Ramirez actually agrees to shift to third. Bell is still one of the better closers, but he's on the decline. Their offense/defense looks good now, but pitching is still a major question mark. Who knows how much cash they have left now, if any.

They must still have a wad left in the wallet as they apparently raised their offer to Pujols. Why him and not Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, or C.J. Wilson is beyond me.

I normally do not cover the Marlins, but I wanted to make an educated response when I was asked about their latest developments. This normally would not be an issue, but I was frustrated when I could not locate a blog or similar resource which projected the Miami Marlins 2012 payroll. Pirates Prospects has spoiled me, which led me to crunch the numbers on my own using Cot's Baseball Contracts and arbitration estimates from MLBTR's Offseason Outlook.


The list isn't perfect, but cut me some slack since this isn't one of my dedicated teams. This estimate initially showed $84 million allotted to their roster next season, then the Marlins just had to sign Buehrle to a 4 year, $58 million contract. This tentatively increases my projection to nearly $99 million unless his contract is This increases my projection to slightly over $90 million after discovering via MLBTR that his contract is back loaded like Reyes.

Of course this does not include the 10 year, $220 million offer to Albert Pujols that would have averaged $24 million per season, though it reportedly fell through before the Buehrle signing. Regardless of what was previously said, it does mean they have spent $191 million on three players in one week. It doesn't stop there. Apparently the Marlins still have an active offer out for Wilson and are now pursuing Prince Fielder.

What is going on in Miami? Check out their payroll over the past few years from Steve the Ump.

Marlins Payroll vs. Other MLB Teams, 2000-2011

The Marlins have consistently been a Major League Baseball team with a below average payroll. They have never crossed the seasonal average, though came relatively close in 2005 with $60MM only to begin the following season at a mere $15MM. That was the lowest payroll for a MLB team since 2000.

When will it end? At this rate the sky's the limit. $100MM? $120MM? $200MM?
Given Jeffrey Loria's sudden emulation of the late George Steinbrenner, I would not be terribly surprised.

Where did they suddenly get this money? Possible revenue share hoarding.

I am not going to question where this money came from, but I do wonder if they have the right people managing their finances. If this is actually money they had (wrongly) saved from revenue sharing or accumulated from other means, then so be it. If this is money they anticipate to generate in the future from the new stadium and new free agents, then that is a dreadful thought. When the new stadium fails to attract new fans, then there will be massive budget cuts. Perhaps this is why the Marlins refuses to offer anyone a no trade clause in their contracts.

It's possibly an escape plan from future financial emergencies, but let's hope the Marlins do not need to resort to using it.

Update #1: Wilson signed with the Angels and the Marlins are not interested in Fielder. Will the spending stop?

Update #2: Buehrle's contract is back loaded like Reyes, which reduces their 2012 payroll projection to ~$90MM.

What is Pujols Worth?

Albert Pujols is a free agent. As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, hearing that may be difficult to swallow, but I finally came to the realization he may not be back next season after hearing he will be visiting with the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinal Virtue and Fungoes pointed out there is a limited market for a premier first baseman, but there is still a gap between the 9 year $200 million the Cardinals had allegedly offered and the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols supposedly wants. The Cards got a bargain when he agreed to his previous 7 year $100 million contract, that's for certain, but it will not and should not play any role in these current negotiations.

Sabermetricians have been tinkering with the discussion of whether a player's value is linear or exponential. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs wrote about it once in February and again in November. CC Sabathia recently signed a 6 year $142 million extension and Cameron showed in his most recent calculations the possibility of it being justified. His linear dollar-per-win model assumed a decline of 0.5 WAR per season from a 5.5 WAR starting point and 5% inflation in the dollar per win rate each year, which actually hit the value almost exactly: 6 years $142.12 million.

Using the same linear concept, perhaps I can predict Albert's next contract, but it is more complicated than just a simple mathematical plug and chug. Interestingly enough, Pujols and Sabathia made both their major league debuts in 2001, so it is somewhat easy to compare them against each other even though they play different positions.

Albert Pujols (red/blue) versus CC Sabathia (navy/white)

Pujols has been an outstanding player ever since he first appeared in the Majors in 2001 and has been superior to Sabathia every season aside from 2011. He has performed fairly consistently over the course of his entire career, though you can see a steep decline since 2009 (since 2008 if you really want to argue a difference of WAR from 9.1 to 9.0 is really a decline).

He has averaged a seasonal WAR of 8.0 over the past 11 seasons, but there is a slight downward trend. Sabathia started slowly, as does most players do in baseball, but has since improved to one of the best pitchers in the game. His average WAR is 5.2, so Cameron's initial projection starting at 5.5 in 2012 makes sense.

So how should we value Pujols? It depends on if you feel he should be judged from his average (8.0) or current WAR (5.1). In other words do you feel his production will be similar to Jose Bautista or Matt Holliday? Both are still excellent results, but a difference of three wins is still pretty significant. Just ask the Red Sox or Braves.

Albert Pujols WAR Projections (Max/Min)

Albert Pujols Salary Projections (Max/Min)

Year	$/Win	Max WAR	Max Value	Min WAR	Min Value
2012	5.00	8.0	$40.00	5.1	$25.50
2013	5.25	7.5	$39.38	4.6	$25.50
2014	5.51	7.0	$38.59	4.1	$24.15
2015	5.79	6.5	$37.62	3.6	$22.60
2016	6.08	6.0	$36.47	3.1	$18.84
2017	6.38	5.5	$35.10	2.6	$16.59
2018	6.70	5.0	$33.50	2.1	$14.07
2019	7.04	4.5	$31.66	1.6	$11.26
2020	7.39	4.0	$29.55	1.1	$8.13
2021	7.76	3.5	$27.15	0.6	$4.65
-	-	57.5	$349.01	28.5	$166.63

A linear regression starting from 8.0 compared to 5.1 is substantial, to say the very least. The total maximum WAR and salary is over twice as high compared to the minimum WAR and salary. A 9 year $200 million contract falls closer to the minimum projection with a 5.8 WAR starting point, while the 10 year $300 million contract Pujols is seeking would be comparable to a 7.2 WAR introduction.

I am not sure exactly why he would seek a salary so outrageously high except to prove he is the best baseball player of all time. In other words, if he nets a more expensive contract than Alex Rodriguez (10 year $275 million), then everyone will know he is the best. I honestly hope my way of thinking is wrong because I do not want to see a charitable human being like Pujols classified with a symbol of greed, like A-Rod and the New York Yankees.

What is Pujols worth? If he nets a 10 year contract, then he should earn somewhere between $166 and $349 million. I apologize for the non-definitive answer, but it depends on how harshly you judge his decline to "sub-stardom."

New Pirates Catcher Signed

The Pittsburgh Pirates landed a new catcher today in former Los Angeles Dodger, Rod Barajas. He signed a one-year contract valued at $4 million with a 2013 team option worth $3.5 million. I have to be honest, he was not on the top of my list, but I certainly prefer him over Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.

Over the past three seasons, Barajas had the second worst BB/K rate (0.27) among all the free agent catchers, walk percentage (4.8%), and on base percentage (.275). However, he also had the second highest slugging percentage (.424) and second most home runs (52). He has logged the most innings behind home plate among them all (2483.2) and earned the second best Total Zone score (6) with a respectable .994 fielding percentage to boot.

If you can't make heads or tails out of the jumbled paragraph of facts and statistics, then let me lend you my explanation. Barajas is not a very disciplined hitter. He should not reach base nearly as often as Doumit or even Snyder, but he has the capability to hit the ball over the fence at least a few times every season. His defense and longevity sets himself apart from the rest of the pack.

Top Five Free Agent Catchers in 2011, via FunGraphs

Top Five Free Agent Catchers over 3 Seasons, via FunGraphs

Many other Pirates bloggers and analysts would have preferred Ramon Hernandez, obviously because he was the superior choice out of them all, but would have cost them a draft pick as a Type A free agent. I would have stayed away from Jorge Posada given his age, horrendous performance at the plate, and lack of appearances behind the plate last season, though it would have been quite hilarious if we ended up signing him since it would have been a tale of rags to riches, only reversed, and I do enjoy it when a previously successful Yankee succumbs to poverty. I would have still preferred Kelly Shoppach as my catcher, but he may not have been as affordable.

Barajas must have some pretty reasonable defense and slugging to offset his otherwise poor hitting in order to rank himself so highly in this group, third highest WAR this past season and fifth highest over the last three seasons. His price tag was much more cost effective than Doumit and Snyder's options, so I am pretty satisfied by this decision.

To end this post, I want to share this animated gif of Rod Barajas from earlier this season extracted from Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. This alone makes me excited to have such a crazy, weird guy on my team.

Rod Barajas treats Dee Gordon like a baby

AATH_Baseball on Twitter

I did something today I told myself I would never do...

Analysis around the Horn is now on Twitter.

http://www.twitter.com/AATH_Baseball

The link can also be found in the Twitter tab below the logo.

All are welcome to join and encouraged to share with your friends.

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

I invite anyone who participated in MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediciton Contest to share their predictions. All choices are now locked, so I wanted to share mine with the world.

My MLBTR Free Agent Predictions

I came close when I tried to predict the outcome of the World Series and guess what team would win each game, but it was only a 1 in 70 chance, so I'm not expecting much from this contest. Why? If you weigh all the possibilities equally, then there are 1,600 options or a 0.0625% chance of choosing all 50 selections correctly. Granted, it is highly unlikely a player like Albert Pujols will sign with the Pirates, Prince Fielder will retire, or Jose Reyes will go to Japan.

Cardinals Offseason, Operation: Sign Albert

Before I start to exhaust the topic on the St. Louis Cardinals' payroll, let me just post this lovely graph from Beyond the Box Score.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series Victory, via Beyond the Box Score

Wonderful. That should quiet all the nay sayers. Let's move on to the matter at hand. I must apologize for this being a near cookie cutter repeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates post, but I wanted to make sure this post was published as close to the deadline as possible.

The St. Louis Cardinals are now in the midst of the free agent frenzy. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Cards possibilities yesterday. The team extended a lot of their key players from the current roster before the season ended, so there are fewer holes to fill. Rafael Furcal and Octavio Dotel's club options were declined, so they will hit the free agent market along with Albert Pujols and everyone else.

Cardinals Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

The attendance and payroll data were collected from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Cards' attendance has dropped every year since 2007, the year after they won the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. I have to assume their payroll will continue to trend upwards in 2012 since they won the World Series again.

Cardinals Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Cardinals should be looking for a first baseman, shortstop, and left-handed relief pitcher. Lefties are pretty hard to come by out of the bullpen, especially when you look at the free agents available this offseason, so they may have to get creative. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $96.61 million. This only leaves a $13 million gap to last season's payroll. No one has publicly reported how much the Cardinals are willing to spend, so we are not sure just how much higher it will go. Attendance should go up with another World Series title, but it may plummet even further if Pujols leaves.

Will they be able to sign Albert?
Can they sign any of their other free agents?
How high will their payroll become?
Will they need creative solutions?

Cardinals 2012 Payroll Estimate

I chose Furcal and Dotel simply because they may accept a cheaper salary to stay with the Cards, thereby keeping the team's payroll down as much as possible in order to sign Pujols. He was originally offered a contract prior to last season that amounted to $200 million over nine years, but declined supposedly because he wanted to beat Alex Rodriguez, whose contract is currently the most lucrative at $275 million over 10 years. If the Cards already offered him that much, then perhaps they would be willing to go a bit further. Matt Holliday may assist with the financial burden by diverting some of his contract to Albert.

As an Albert Pujols fan, I am hoping $22 million would be enough to lure him back next season. My proposed contract is $276 million over 10 years ($22, 22, 30, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32, 24, 22), which would be the new record and likely keep Pujols a Cardinal for life. It would be wise to add stipulations to the contract in case he gets injured, unlike A-Rod's contract with the New York Yankees.

I understand Albert is probably the best baseball player of all time and probably deserves the biggest contract of all time to match, but I doubt he would leave the Cardinals because of money. I believe he is far too charitable of a human being to stoop to the level of greed. Let's hope he remains the best St. Louis Cardinal since Stan Musial.

Pirates Payroll Speculation

The Pittsburgh Pirates have less than four hours before the surge of free agent signings should begin. MLB Trade Rumors covered the Pirates possibilities on October 19th, so the information is now slightly dated. The team has a few holes to fill and many areas which they could improve upon after declining club options for Chris Snyder, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno.

Pirates Attendance vs. Payroll, 2007-2011

I gathered the attendance and payroll data from Baseball Reference and Cot's Baseball Contracts, respectively. The Buccos attracted more fans this year than they have in the last five years and are reportedly expected to enter 2012 with a payroll above $50 million. This is moderately encouraging as this would be the most they have dedicated to their players' payroll since 2003. I would be more excited if there were more options available on the upcoming free agent market or trading table.

Pirates Current 25-man Roster Projection for 2012, MLB Depth Charts

MLB Depth Charts reports the Pirates should be looking for a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, corner outfielder, and starting pitcher. I mostly agree with them, but think we have enough depth in the outfield. I would prefer a backup third baseman in case Alvarez does not recover from his sophomore slump. The amount of money the Pirates have to throw around this offseason depends upon where you read. Bucs Dugout predicts a minimum of $33.4 million is already allotted to the current roster, Pirates Prospects suggests $30.16 million, and Raise the Jolly Roger estimates $25 million. If I look at the payroll information available on Cot's Baseball Contracts and use MLBTR's projected arbitration salaries, then I come up with $31.99 million.

This means the Pirates management has a little bit of wiggle room to upgrade at least two positions, hopefully four. If the Buccos maintain a payroll above $50 million, then that leaves $18 million or more for the offseason. Let's see what's available and what they can do.

Free Agent Targets: Catcher

Free Agent Targets: First Base

Free Agent Targets: Shortstop

Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitcher

First and foremost, the likelihood of the Pirates signing a caliber player like Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, or C.J. Wilson is extremely unlikely unless they accepted payment in Heinz ketchup or Yuengling. It is also fairly unlikely they will surrender a first round draft pick for a type A free agent.

Doumit could be offered arbitration, though any of my other three suggestions would be a nice change. Sure, his offensive numbers may have been more impressive overall, but he has not been a full-time catcher since 2008 and his eyes creep me out. Any one of these options could cost somewhere around $3 to $8 million.

The Pirates acknowledged their lineup was power deficient in 2011, so it would be wise to select a big bat to play first base. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer, and Pujols are all type A free agents, which should make the other three choices more available. The Chicago Cubs may not let Carlos Pena go if they are unable to sign a replacement for themselves. I would expect the Pirates to devote $6 to 9 million to first base.

Cedeno is gone. If the Pirates offer him arbitration, then it will probably cost them more than his original $3 million club option. If you disregard Jimmy Rollins and Reyes, then everyone but Nick Punto are type B free agents and should cost anywhere from $3 to $10 million.

The Buccos currently have a starting rotation full of right handers with the loss of Maholm, so picking up a lefty for next year is vital. Signing Wilson is extremely unlikely, but one can dream. Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson would be great additions to an otherwise inexperienced staff, but both are type B free agents and will probably be on the expensive side, possibly $8 to $15 million. Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis would be interesting options, hopefully on the more affordable side, maybe $4 to $8 million.

Pirates 2012 Payroll Estimate

In my fantasy world, the Pirates would acquire Kelly Shoppach, Punto, and Capuano while resigning Lee. The signings would cost the organization $20 million next year, disregarding the possibility of multi-year contracts, for a total payroll of approximately $52 million.

Hibernation

Autumn has its stranglehold upon the trees, the temperature is dropping, and my muscles feel stiff. Baseball season is officially over.

I feel a little sad today, which is depressing because it is actually my birthday. Perhaps my subconscious finally realizes it can no longer experience the intensities of a September playoff race, nor hear Written in the Stars advertising the Postseason, nor ride emotional roller coasters while I watch a baseball game, nor enjoy the delicious ballpark franks and nachos.

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 90 games this season and fans may have been disappointed, but they showed great strides of improvement, which was not difficult after such a poor season in 2010. Their performance up to July was almost as amazing as their second half was devastating. Still, management proved last year they can come up with creative solutions that fit their budget. Some worked, most did not, but you may have to take some risks when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The most exciting part of the Pirates' season was when they acquired Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee before the trade deadline, which proved to me management is not afraid to make a move. They announced their priorities will be at catcher and first base.

This is my first year with the St. Louis Cardinals in their hometown and they did not disappoint me. The ultimate baseball high is followed by rock bottom, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa announcing his retirement. Luckily the Cards have Lance Berkman locked in for next year, which would allow him to shift from right field to first base, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. Management tied up most of their major loose ends aside from Pujols, shortstop, and now the manager position.

In my past offseasons as solely a Buccos fan, this would have marked the beginning of my hibernation from baseball. This changed after the 2011 season and with a projected payroll increase to over $50 million next season. If you couple that with the anticipation of the moves the Cards will surely make, then I should be quite active this offseason.

Why so glum?

Offseason Entertainment:
 MLBTR has a free agent prediction contest here.
 Their predictions can be found here for comparison.
 ESPN "predicts" the next 25 World Series champions here.
 Two Out Rally, Baseball MMORPG: here.
 World Series Superstars on Facebook: here.
 Baseball Mogul 2012: here.

Personal Offseason Projects:
 Pirates Payroll Speculation
 Cardinals Payroll Speculation
 Payroll Win Efficiency
 Analyzing my Fantasy Baseball Teams
 Preparing for the Next Fantasy Baseball Season
 League Realignment Proposal
 League Expansion Proposal
 Playoff Expansion Proposal

Correction:
 The math on my World Series Probability post was corrected. There are 70 possible outcomes, not 72.

Surreal, Unreal

Yesterday was the St. Louis Cardinals' 2011 World Series celebration. My girlfriend, Linda, and I were in queue to get our tickets on Saturday afternoon at 2:15 pm, then finally bought two at 2:50 pm. Luckily they did not sell out before then, otherwise we would have missed an incredible experience.

Surreal.

We arrived at 1:30 pm, keep in mind the parade did not start until 4. After walking along the parade route for a little while, we could not find any openings next to the railing. We were too late for a front row spot, so we decided to sit on a brick wall in front of some bushes. Not only did it give us a place to sit down over the next two hours while we waited for the celebration to begin, but it allowed us to overlook the enormous sea of red that laid between us and the parade route.

Our spot on the parade route, 1:45 pm

Panorama from our spot on the parade route, 4:00 pm

Unfortunately, the first few photos from the parade were a little blurry, but switching my camera from landscape to sports mode seemed to work fairly well. I did my best to caption each photo based the name on the vehicle or if I could recognize them. Please correct me if I was wrong anywhere.


Less than 24 hours after Tony La Russa made his speech in Busch Stadium, he announced his retirement. I had suspected TLR would hold off on his own contract until he saw where Albert Pujols would land. I was not expecting the announcement at all and now the Cards have an opening for their manager position in 2012.

Unreal.

I read many posts and news articles over the course of the 2011 season questioning if he should retire. Some suggested he should have retired after the 2006 season to finish on top. He showed all his disbelievers by not only exiting on top, but earning his third World Series championship of his managerial career in the most dramatic fashion imaginable.

La Russa managed the Chicago White Sox from 1979 to 1986, the Oakland Athletics from 1986 to 1995, and the St. Louis Cardinals from 1996 to 2011. He ends his managerial career with 2,728 wins (3rd all-time), 2,365 losses, and a .536 winning percentage. He earned three AL Pennants and one World Series title with the A's, three NL Pennants and two World Series titles with the Cardinals, and will almost certainly be inducted to the Hall of Fame.

Congratulations, Tony.
Thank you, from this blog writer and the rest of Cardinal Nation.

Baseball Euphoria

So this is what it feels like to be a winner. I'll be honest, it feels amazing.

Cards celebrate in the locker room after winning World Series, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

They need to replace the sign along interstate 70 when you cross the bridge into Missouri. It should read "Welcome to St. Louis, Home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Baseball Euphoria."

If you had the privilege to experience everything this season like I did, then you would have suffered from the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training, endured frustrating blown saves by Ryan Franklin, questioned the authenticity of Albert Pujols's poor start, cherished the production from veteran Lance Berkman, were saddened by every loss earned by Chris Carpenter, coped with the rise and fall from Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan, were grateful Jaime Garcia did not have a "sophomore slump," held your breath when Albert was injured in June, exhaled a sigh of relief when he returned in July, wondered why they were battling with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the division, withstood the revolving door of several closers in the bullpen, were skeptical when Colby Rasmus was traded, distressed over the injury-prone seasons of Matt Holliday and David Freese, thoroughly enjoyed when Albert started playing like Albert again, watched with disbelief as the Milwaukee Brewers surged past them for the division lead, looked forward to next season when the Cards were 10 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card, were hopefully optimistic when the Braves slumped, joyful when the Cards won their final game of the regular season, and elated when the Braves were removed from the picture.

The St. Louis Cardinals entire season had it all.

The Cardinals were underdogs entering every series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers, and Texas Rangers. Different heroes surfaced in almost every series: Jon Jay, Jason Motte, David Freese, Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter in the NLDS; Albert Pujols, Jon Jay, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Yadier Molina, and David Freese in the NLCS; and Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, and David Freese in the World Series.

The 2011 World Series had it all.

St. Louis Cardinals Postseason Progress Reviewed, Photo via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Everyone contributed at some point over the course of the September and into the October postseason, and that is what made this team unique. Baseball drama at its finest.

Congratulations to Tony La Russa and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

Eleven

The St. Louis Cardinals are World Series Champions for the 11th time in their franchise history.

2011 World Series Trophy, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Now, if you excuse me, I'm heading to Dick's Sporting Goods with my girlfriend for our Championship gear!

Cards Depend on Carp, Game 7

I am still extremely excited after last night's game, so this post will be brief using an assortment of great links.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: The way most of us watched Game 6...
"This is exactly what the 2011 Cardinals are all about: drama. They’re up, they’re down, they’re underground, but they are never boring. And they LOVE playing from behind."

Beyond the Box Score: David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History
"The returns are in... David Freese now owns the highest WPA in a WS game. His .953 beats Kirk Gibson's .870."

Beyond the Box Score: Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
"We are no longer in the realm of simple probability. ... We now live in a quantum realm where Texas' and St. Louis' title hopes are both alive and dead simultaneously. It is our very observation of the final out that will collapse the wave function (and possibly the Rangers' bullpen) and present us with one of two realities. ... In other words, just watch the game. Watch history in the making."

FanGraphs: Game 7 Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. Matt Harrison
"Chris Carpenter is starting tonight on only three days rest, while Matt Harrison hopes to do better than the shellacking he took in Game Four. Both pitchers will need to change up how they’re attacking hitters if they want to be successful."


I am a little nervous with Chris Carpenter taking the mound on short rest, but I would have chosen him given the other options (Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Jake Westbrook). My girlfriend and I will definitely be out with the rest of St. Louis tonight. We want to be part of this moment.

Will Carp be masterful like in game five of the NLDS or will he flounder on short rest?

Carp Flourishing, via USA Today

Carp Floundering, via Steve Creek Outdoors

Roller Coaster of Emotion

I probably could summarize all eleven innings of game six with just one word: Wow!


Source: FanGraphs
FanGraphs chose a different, but equally fitting, word: Baseball!

I tried to explain the graph to a friend last night while I was still experiencing this rush. Picture the graph as a roller coaster. Hop in the car on the leftside of the graph and ride it out until you reach the end.

What a crazy ride.

I want to give this game the dignity it deserves as one of the most intense World Series games of all time and the best game I ever had the opportunity to watch on television. It would have been a close second if I actually was in attendance at Busch Stadium (like my girlfriend's brother, Sam, or Aaron Hooks from Cards Diaspora), but the position would still be reserved for the 1994 All Star game I saw with my father.

Jaime Garcia had a shaky start. He allowed the first three batters to reach base and surrendered a run to the Texas Rangers offense in the first inning. The St. Louis Cardinals quickly responded with a Lance Berkman two-run home run. The 2-1 lead would be very short-lived as Garcia allowed a second earned run in the second inning to tie the game.

Colby Lewis started shutting down the Cards offense one-by-one and Garcia finally seemed to settle down by throwing a scoreless third inning, but he was gone by the fourth in lieu of the TLR bullpen pitching parade (I need to coin that term).

The Cards stopped following lesson number two from my Survival Guide: "Stop making mistakes." Matt Holliday dropped a routine fly ball, Fernando Salas overthrew a force out at second base, and David Freese dropped an infield pop up. These three errors resulted in two unearned runs.

Luckily, the Rangers made a few blunders of their own. Michael Young bobbled a ground ball and Elvis Andrus tossed a ball wide of first base, which pulled Young off the bag. The Cards managed to tie the game with two unearned runs for themselves and exited the sixth inning 4-4.

Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz each homered in the top of the seventh, then scored once more thanks in part to a wild pitch by Octavio Dotel before finally getting out of the inning with the score 7-4.

Derek Holland entered the game as a reliever earlier during the sixth inning. Many thought his pitching had become infallible after pitching an 8.1 inning gem in game four, then 1.2 innings of solid relief in game six. Allen Craig changed their minds with a solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning to bring the score to 7-5.

Everyone seemed depressed and morbid as Neftali Feliz entered the bottom of the ninth inning. He struck out the first batter he faced, then Albert Pujols came to the plate. The announcers mentioned, once again, this may be Pujol's last at bat as a Cardinal. He delivered with a double, his first and only hit of the World Series outside of game three. Berkman was intentionally walked and Craig struck out, which led to David Freese. He fell behind in the count to 1-2, then tripled to deep right field to tie the game. We move on to 10th!

Jason Motte remained in the game in the 10th for his second inning of relief. He retired the first batter he faced, then allowed a single, and Josh Hamilton swatted a home run to right field with the first pitch he saw. Motte retired the next two batters and exited the inning with a score of 9-7 as the potential losing pitcher.

Darren Oliver entered the game for the Rangers to face against several of the weakest Cardinals hitters. I was nervous. Daniel Descalso singled, Jon Jay singled, and Kyle Lohse hit the weirdest bunt I have ever seen that flew over Beltre's head to advance both runners. Scott Feldman relieved Oliver and Ryan Theriot grounded out, but it sent a run home. Albert came to the plate with a runner third base and two outs. I thought this could be his defining moment, then they walked him. Berkman responded with a clutch single to score the tying run. Onward to the 11th!

Jake Westbrook entered the 11th inning and allowed one single; otherwise, he was great. He provided the greatest WPA among all of the Cardinals pitchers used in the game and the score remained tied.

Freese returned to the plate in the bottom of the eleventh inning as the first batter to face Mark Lowe, the Rangers new relief pitcher. I could tell he was swinging for the fences after he nearly fell over for the first strike, so I decided to retrieve our secret weapon:

Rally "Squirrel"

Meet Harrison. He is our Rally Gerbil since no squirrels were within reach.

Freese worked the count to 3-2, then launched a game-winning and series-tying solo homer to almost dead center field measured at 428 feet. The Cardinals win, 10-9! The stadium erupted as he rounded the bases and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate who proceeded to tear his jersey off his body.

Harrison was rewarded with a pumpkin seed for being such a good luck charm.

David Freese takes a bow after his Game 6 heroics, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

The World Series will be decided in game seven! Will the Cards take their 11th World Series title or will the Rangers earn their first?

St. Louis Cardinals Survival Guide

Lessons to learn from playing the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

1) Get on base however you can. "Walks are good."

2) Stop making mistakes. "Errors are bad, especially when the game is on the line."

3) Fly balls are great when they travel 400 feet. "Home runs are good. They score runs."

4) No free passes. "Walks are bad. Seven walks in one game is terrible."

5a) Stop stranding runners. "Every run counts."

5b) Listen to the manager. "Albert is great, but he is not a player-manager."

5c) Can you hear the manager? "Warm up Motte. I said, 'MOTTE!'"

Busch Stadium before Game 6, via St. Louis Cardinals Facebook Fanpage

Good luck tonight, fellas.

Circling the Drain

Will the St. Louis Cardinals follow the last few drops of rain water tonight after game six?

The clouds have not yet lifted, nor have the winds subsided, but at least the rain stopped here in St. Louis. It will be quite cold once again, but the game should be played without any interruption from mother nature. If the first two games of this series is any implication of what may happen tonight (and possibly tomorrow), then this may be a low scoring affair.

Jaime Garcia vs. Colby Lewis, Regular Season 2011

Thursday night will feature a rematch of game two between Jaime Garcia and Colby Lewis. Both pitched amazingly well earlier this series, but the Texas Rangers edged the St. Louis Cardinals to win that game 2-1. Both pitchers had above average seasons with comparable run support, though the numbers suggest Garcia ran into a little bad luck, while Lewis enjoyed some good luck. Pitchers Hit Eighth show the rescheduled game and giving Garcia one more day of rest may work in the Cardinals' favor.

Things are different than before. The Rangers are one win away from being declared World Series champions. The situation is dire for the Cardinals and they need to act now if they want to play again tomorrow.

World Series Intermission, Rain

It certainly is good I waited to write this post regarding game six of the World Series.

With persistent rain in the forecast, Major League Baseball has announced that Wednesday night's scheduled Game 6 of the World Series has been postponed. It will be made up on Thursday at 7:05 p.m. CT.

From St. Louis Cardinals Official Site

It's usually a bad idea to back a dog into a corner. The Texas Rangers may want to rethink what they are trying to do to the St. Louis Cardinals. I already wrote about the Cardinals being a good underdog, but I suppose this is inspiration to expand upon it.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Season & Postseason

Coolstandings predicted the likelihood of each team's chances of making the playoffs, then continued their calculation into the postseason. The Cards hit their lowest point on August 27th when they had only a 1.1% chance to reach the postseason, then clinched the Wild Card almost exactly one month later marking one of the best comebacks in Major League Baseball history.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Postseason

The Cardinals have continued their improbable performance in the playoffs as they knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were favored to win the NLDS and NLCS, while the Cards entered with only a 35.6% and 45.5% chance, respectively. In particular, the Phillies had the best record in 2011 and were most likely to go all the way to win the World Series.

This is a do or die situation for the Cards. Many are speculating the possibility of Tony La Russa sending Chris Carpenter back to the mound on Thursday on three days rest in light of game six being rescheduled. I hope he sticks with Jaime Garcia as he pitched great in game two and took a no-decision. The Cards lost the game due to a fielding error and an unusually weak offense.

Beyond the Box Score researched how well pitchers have fared in the postseason with only three days rest since 2005. Eight of the 16 pitchers tossed quality starts, but the pitcher's respective team won only six times in that time frame.

When I think about Carp on short rest, it makes me think about his start against the Phillies in game two of the NLDS. Sure, the Cards may have won that game, but he gave up four earned runs over three innings pitched. The bullpen saved him for the remaining six innings by shutting the Phillies down. I am not sure it is wise to rely on the TLR parade of pitchers after game five.

The rain may help rest the Cardinals overworked pitching staff.

Game Five Headache

As per the title of this post, last night's game made my head hurt. 

C.J. Wilson did his best Edwin Jackson impersonation, walking five, but the St. Louis Cardinals offense could not capitalize against the Texas Rangers. They were 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 runners on base. Of course that value excludes Allen Craig who was caught "stealing" second base in the 7th inning and caught stealing second base in the 9th.


Source: FanGraphs
The Cardinals bullpen finally collapsed so hard that apparently the phones stopped working. Tony La Russa called Lance Lynn to the mound in the bottom of the 8th inning to intentionally walk Ian Kinsler, then pulled him in favor of Jason Motte. It boggled my mind.

The only factors of this game I enjoyed were Skip Schumaker starting in centerfield over Jon Jay and Chris Carpenter's seven inning performance. Skip actually recorded a hit, which is more than Jay has over the course of the entire World Series. Carp may have given up two home runs, but the score was still tied, 2-2, when he exited the game. It was a quality start and I almost wish he kept the ball in the 8th instead of handing it over to the bullpen parade.

I am going to stop and pass the blogging analysis torch to the following blogs before my headache returns. The Cardinals blogging community needs some love after last night, so please give the following articles a read and subscribe.

Beyond the Box Score
Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep

Cardinal 70
Winter is Coming

The Cardinal Nation blog 
Two of a record 65 Cardinals relief changes that did not work

Cards Diaspora
Reaction: World Series Game 5

FanGraphs
Did You Say Motte or Lynn? Ah, Screw it.
When IBBs Attack
Why Was Allen Craig Running?

Pitchers Hit Eighth
Can You Hear Me Now?

Viva El Birdos
Saying not very much at all about the Cardinals' Game 5 loss

Night and Day

I am somewhat happy about skipping yesterday's preview of World Series game four. After both teams scored a total of only eight runs in chilly Missouri, everyone expected the ball to fly off the bat in warm Texas. The St. Louis Cardinals answered those initial expectations by scoring almost twice that many runs by themselves in game three to win 15-7.

The Cards recorded 15 hits in that game, five were by Albert Pujols. Of those 15 hits, four were home runs and Pujols was accountable for almost a quarter-mile of them (3 HR = 1,275 feet total).

I had other engagements earlier in the afternoon and was not completely familiar with Edwin Jackson nor Derek Holland, aside from their above-average regular seasons and below-average postseasons thus far, so I thought I could skip the preview and analyze game four's outcome.

Would the hot offensive streak continue? Oy vey.

The Texas Rangers won, 4-0, and tied the series 2-2. The game almost hurt to watch as a Cardinals fan. Holland completely shut down the Cards offense in 8.1 innings pitched, while allowing only two hits. Lance Berkman was the owner of both hits and he very well couldn't create four runs by himself. Jackson allowed seven free passes over 5.1 innings. Let me emphasize that:

Seven walks.

He was pulled in the sixth inning after issuing two back-to-back walks, then Mitchell Boggs threw a fastball higher than intended, which traveled farther than he wanted. Mike Napoli hit a three-run homer to make the score 4-0, which is how the game eventually ended.

It is amazing how a lineup can be so devastating one day, then so fragile and weak the next. It's like night and day, but that's just how baseball works sometimes.

Game five marks the last game played in Arlington. The outcome will result in a do-or-die situation for the losing team in St. Louis.

Will we see a night or day performance?

Will the Cardinals have a happy flight home tonight or will they face elimination on Wednesday?

Pujols Hot in Texas, Cards Win

The St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers relied on pitching for games one and two with cold temperatures in Missouri. Albert Pujols went 0 for six with an error in the ninth inning of game two. He was harshly criticized when he dodged the media. How did he respond in game three?

Albert Pujols, World Series, Game 3

Albert got hot!

I wrote about how he recorded the best performance in a postseason game in Cardinals franchise history against the Milwaukee Brewers in game two of the NLCS. Fungoes wrote about how that same performance ranked him 24th overall.

Albert was accredited with creating 11.667 runs in a 16-7 romping over the Texas Rangers. His postseason performance ranks him 3rd all time. He crushed three home runs in a single game in the World Series, which allows him to go down in history with Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth who also accomplished this feat.




Source: FanGraphs
The Cards were never losing at any point in tonight's game, but Albert's first home run essentially sealed the Rangers' fate in the sixth inning. His second and third blasts did not even appear on the radar, they were just icing on the delicious cake.

Albert Pujols hits HR number three, St. Louis Cardinals Facebook