Tigers Force Game 6

Thursday's night game was a do-or-die situation for the Detroit Tigers. They delivered with a 7-5 victory over Texas, which forces a game six in Arlington on Saturday. Although the Rangers still lead the series 3-2, so the Tigers are still on the brink of elimination.

Justin Verlander allowed four earned runs, eight hits, and three walks over 7+ innings. How do you win when the game is on the line and your pitching is so unusually dismal? (This would be the perfect opportunity to say a line from Day[9]TV, but I will refrain to keep this blog professional. If you understand, then you are awesome.)

Just score more runs than the other team. Brilliant!

Fangraphs

The Rangers allowed four home runs, C.J. Wilson was responsible for three of them. Alex Avila and Ryan Raburn each launched solo home runs, while Delmon Young hit two bombs in the 4th and 6th innings.

To Verlander's credit, his numbers do not give him all the credit he may deserve. He tossed a career-high 133 pitches, 94 of them for strikes. Everything was going quite well. His final pitch actually reached 100 mph on the stadium radar gun, which is uncharacteristically fast for a starting pitcher especially so late into the game. But Nelson Cruz ejected it from the park hitting a two-run home run, his fifth this postseason.

Cruz seems to be vying for his own rendition of Reggie Jackson, Mr. October. The media may give it to him if he keeps this up.

Cards Take the Lead

The St. Louis Cardinals are now the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series after they defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in game three. The Cards now lead the series 2-1 and Beyond the Box Score predicts they have a 65.1% chance to take the NLCS.

Beyond the Box Score

Yovani Gallardo allowed the first five Cardinals batters on base before finally recording an out. The Cards scored four runs before their lineup batted around and the first inning finally ended. Lucky for the Brewers, Chris Carpenter was not sharp either and allowed three earned runs over five innings.

Both teams employed their bullpens past the fifth inning, which led to near-perfect results. The Cardinals called upon four relievers and did not allow a base runner, while the Brewers allowed only one hit and one walk with the use of three relievers.

The Cards essentially won the game after abusing Gallardo in the first inning. Will they keep rolling with their winning ways?

Game 4

Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 111 SO)

vs.

Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 134 SO)

Game four seems like a coin flip. Lohse and Wolf are both fine pitchers, but they are quite inconsistent with Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde streaks. So what will we see tonight? A well crafted performance by a professor or an ugly monster?

2006 World Series Rematch Unlikely

The gentlemen at Beyond the Box Score have developed a postseason simulator, which deems a rematch between the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals only a 5.3% possibility. The Texas Rangers are the large favorite to win the World Series, as per their research.

Beyond the Box Score

I didn't live in St. Louis in 2006, nor did I have any real connection to the Cardinals at the time besides "that other team in the NL Central who beats the Pirates like everyone else." If I remember correctly, it was this World Series match up that lured me back to becoming a hardcore baseball fan. I was amazed to see the Detroit Tigers contending for their chance to win it all after losing a franchise record 119 games only three years prior.

Jim Leyland has a tendency to make heroes out of young, scrappy players. Just look at the 1990-92 Pirates, '97 Marlins, 2006 and '11 Tigers. Each team was a winner, in their own respect. I find it hard to believe he has only one World Series title and two Pennants on his managerial resume.

The Tigers accumulated a 12 game winning streak in September against several of their AL Central rivals, which distanced them from their challengers, ensured them a division title, and earned them a playoff spot. They were supported throughout the season by the extraordinary Justin Verlander, who is a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, and Miguel Cabrera, who delivered another MVP caliber season.

Both were stellar in the regular season, but their postseason performances have been average at best. Verlander was part of the Tigers organization in 2006 and has only recorded one quality start in his postseason career. Cabrera's batting average is down and his strikeout rate is up, but the Rangers and Yankees have opted to award him first base more often than not.

2011 Regular Season

Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 250 SO)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 SO)

Wilson quietly put up very respectable numbers behind all the hype surrounding Verlander in the American League. He also has three quality starts in his postseason career, though they all came last year. Otherwise, he looks quite similar to Verlander.

Postseason Stats

Justin Verlander (2-3, 5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10.4 SO/9)

vs.

C.J. Wilson (1-3, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.7 SO/9)

Will either starting pitcher produce a quality start for their team?

Will the bullpen get to work early again?

Game 5 starts in Detroit at 4:19 ET. The Texas Rangers lead the series 3-1, so this is a do-or-die situation for the Tigers.

(Sidenote: Could they have chosen a stranger starting game time?)

Pujols Best Performance in Cardinals Playoff History

Pip over at Fungoes posted a few days ago noting the best performances by Cardinals players in the playoffs and the addition of three players from this year's NLDS series: Ryan Theriot and Albert Pujols in game 3, then David Freese in game 4.

After tonight's game in Milwaukee, I am certain he will likely expand on this thought. The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-3 to tie the NLCS 1-1. Pujols recorded four hits (three doubles and a home run) over five at bats and scored three times while knocking in five.

8.0 Runs Created. Amazing.

It was a tremendous performance, which actually eclipsed his performance on Tuesday (6.0) and breaks the previous record of 7.2 set by Larry Walker in 2004.

See you in St. Louis for game 3 on Wednesday.

NLCS: Cardinals vs. Brewers

Kevin Dame has been creatively blogging using Wordle at SB Nation, so I thought I would try it out.

Cardinals/Brewers, NLCS Wordle

Pretty cool, huh?

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at Miller Park. The Cardinals plan to send Jaime Garcia to the mound, while the Brewers intend to use Zack Greinke. Garcia owns a 1.93 ERA with one win and one no-decision after two starts this year against the Brewers. Greinke is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA against the Cardinals in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 156 SO)
vs.
Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 201 SO)

Honestly, we can look at pitching lines all day long, but it may not matter because the most noticeable statistical difference lies in their records at home and away.

Milwaukee Brewers: 96-66 (.593)

Home: 57-24 (.704)

Away: 39-42 (.481)

St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (.556)

Home: 45-36 (.556)

Away: 45-36 (.556)

The Brewers performed extremely well at home in Miller Park during the regular season, yet they actually had a losing record while on the road. They were, of course, the only playoff team to do so. Meanwhile the Cardinals were very consistent maintaining identical records while at home and away. These habits seem to continue thus far while both teams competed in their divisional series.

Milwaukee Brewers: 3-2

Home: 3-0

Away: 0-2

St. Louis Cardinals: 3-2

Home: 1-1

Away: 2-1

The Cardinals and Brewers split their record during the season (9-9), but the Cards did manage to record a sweep in Milwaukee. It would be wise for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to provide top-notch performances in this series as this may be the All Star first basemen's last opportunity to increase their upcoming free agency values.

Given all this information, I would have to say the Cards have a small advantage or at least an equal chance to take the NLCS from the Brewers again a la 1982 style.

Little Guys

Chris Carpenter pitched flawlessly over nine innings against the Houston Astros on September 28th to set the St. Louis Cardinals up to take the National League Wild Card.

He only pitched three innings on October 2nd against the Philadelphia Phillies on short rest, but the Cards still won while employing their entire bullpen.

Tonight, he pitched another gem as he shut out the Phillies to win their NLDS series. The Cards only scored one run against Roy Halladay, but that's all they needed. They move on to face the Brewers in Milwaukee in the NLCS on Sunday, October 9th.

The Tigers overtook the overpriced Yankees yesterday and the Cards beat the Phillies today. Monetarily, that means $105.7 M defeated $202.7 M and $105.4 M beat $173.0 M, respectively.

I love it when the little guys kick the bigger guys in their wallets. Don't you?

Cardinals and Phillies, Game 5 Tonight

Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
vs.
Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

I choose to not overanalyze this matchup. Tune in and watch the game tonight at 7:37 p.m. CST.

Go Cardinals!

Tigers Top Yankees

Tigers win ALDS 3-2 over Yankees.

This was my hack at doing something creative. Hopefully it's appreciated as much as I liked last night's game.

The Detroit Tigers defeated the New York Yankees on Thursday night and I could not be happier. I guess money can buy the division, but it doesn't guarantee you a ring. Anyone who keeps the Yankees out of the World Series is okay in my book. The Tigers will face the Texas Rangers for game one of the ALCS on Saturday in Texas.

What made the game even more glorious was Jose Valverde striking out Alex Rodriguez to end the game. Delicious.

I don't always agree with what they say over at SB Nation, but I keep my subscription with them because of little gems like Visual Box Score. Cute and entertaining.

Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Pirates Helped Rays

I realized something amusing last night: The Red Sox were knocked out from the AL Wild Card by the Pirates.

Bear with me and I'll explain my reasoning. Remember when the Red Sox rolled into Pittsburgh in late June earlier this year? Boston owned a record of 44-30, while tied for first with the New York Yankees in the AL East. Everyone expected them to roll over the Pirates in their three game series, but it didn't go as expected.

The Pirates managed to win the series 2-1, which gave them a winning record and caused Boston to slide into second place. Pittsburgh used the series against Boston to create momentum for the team. They eventually rose to first place in the NL Central and maintained a record above .500 until August.

Two games were all that stood between the Boston Red Sox and winning the American League Wild Card, so it only makes sense the Tampa Bay Rays should thank the Pirates for their postseason appearance.

Granted, the Red Sox lost two or more games to many other teams who were worse than the Pirates. The Rays could thank the Orioles who handed Boston their final loss of the season and inevitably shut their season down, but I choose to be charitable and thank the Pirates.

Moneyball

"How can you not be romantic about baseball?"

This little writeup is dedicated to a friend who doesn't believe in Moneyball and, thus, only follows sports with salary limitations.

I finally saw Moneyball Saturday night and it was amazing. I had to restrain myself from cheering at times. If you haven't seen it yet, go. Peter Brand reminded me of myself, though I'm not quite overweight and don't have the fancy degree from Yale. So if any general managers out there are reading this and want an assistant, I'm available.


Expensive players are not always the best, so more money does not always buy more wins. The eight 2011 playoff contenders consist of two bloated market teams, four near-average payroll teams, and two true Moneyballers.

2011 Postseason Bracket

The Yankees and Phillies have the most expensive payrolls in the American League and National League, respectively, so many expected them to have the best records at the end of 2011. The Diamondbacks took the NL West even though they had the sixth poorest payroll. The Rays took the AL Wild Card and only the Kansas City Royals had a lower payroll than them.

If money paid for wins, like so many people believe, then this is how the 2011 postseason should look like:

2011 Postseason Money Bracket

The Red Sox were in the hunt for the AL Wild Card, but fell in dramatic fashion. The Angels and Giants fought for a playoff slot, though came up short. The White Sox, Cubs, and Mets didn't even break the .500 mark.

Payroll win efficiency. I will expand on this subject later.

2011 Playoff Predictions

September started with the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers guaranteed a winning season of .500 or better. In retrospect, only the Royals and Astros were guaranteed losing records at that point. Eight teams were already knocked out of contention for the playoffs and eight were circling the drain to join them, which left 14 still competing for a shot at the postseason.

August 31, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Boston	83	52	.615	-	729	565	98.8	63.2	61.9	37.5	99.4
New York	81	53	.604	1.5	732	538	97.9	64.1	38.0	60.7	98.7
Tampa Bay	74	61	.548	9.0	575	511	87.1	74.9	0.2	1.6	1.7
Toronto	68	68	.500	15.5	640	623	80.3	81.7	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	54	80	.403	28.5	567	706	64.1	97.9	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	75	61	.551	-	614	608	88.8	73.2	82.1	<0.1	82.1
Cleveland	68	65	.511	5.5	565	576	82.7	79.3	8.5	<0.1	8.5
Chicago	68	66	.507	6.0	544	546	83.0	79.0	9.4	<0.1	9.4
Minnesota	57	79	.419	18.0	523	671	67.4	94.6	0	0	0
Kansas City	56	81	.409	19.5	596	657	68.2	93.8	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	77	60	.562	-	689	591	91.2	70.8	82.9	0.1	83.0
Los Angeles	73	63	.537	3.5	552	528	87.1	74.9	17.1	0.2	17.3
Oakland	60	76	.441	16.5	536	576	72.8	89.2	<0.1	0	<0.1
Seattle	58	77	.430	18.0	470	555	69.5	92.5	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	86	46	.652	-	599	429	104.9	57.1	98.4	1.6	99.9
Atlanta	80	55	.593	7.5	554	490	94.2	67.8	1.6	96.1	97.7
New York	65	69	.485	22.0	592	607	78.6	83.4	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	63	71	.470	24.0	514	548	76.2	85.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Florida	60	75	.444	27.5	524	602	71.1	90.9	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	81	56	.591	-	605	551	94.8	67.2	98.5	0.2	98.7
St. Louis	72	64	.529	8.5	634	591	85.4	76.6	1.5	1.8	3.3
Cincinnati	67	69	.493	13.5	629	593	81.5	80.5	0.1	0.1	0.1
Pittsburgh	62	74	.456	18.5	519	577	73.8	88.2	0	0	0
Chicago	59	78	.431	22.0	553	659	70.3	91.7	0	0	0
Houston	47	90	.343	34.0	528	674	57.5	104.5	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	78	59	.569	-	612	573	91.3	70.7	95.2	0.1	95.2
San Francisco	72	65	.526	6.0	460	483	83.7	78.3	4.5	0.2	4.7
Los Angeles	65	70	.481	12.0	524	520	79.3	82.7	0.3	<0.1	0.3
Colorado	64	73	.467	14.0	626	642	76.2	85.8	<0.1	0	<0.1
San Diego	60	77	.438	18.0	514	529	72.2	89.8	<0.1	0	<0.1

Information from coolstandings.

W- Wins, L- Losses, PCT- Winning Percentage, GB- Games Back, RS- Runs Scored, RA- Runs Allowed, EXPW- Expected season Wins, EXPL- Expected season Losses, DIV- Chance of winning the Division, WC- Chance of winning the Wild Card, POFF- Chance of making the Playoffs.

A few teams seemed too far gone, so I thought the only real race was in the AL West division between the Rangers and Angels. It seemed the only other question was deciding who would be the AL East champion or Wild Card berth, the Yankees or Red Sox. All the other slots for the playoffs seemed predetermined.

American League National League

Detroit  at Boston/New York Arizona  at Philadelphia

New York/Boston (wc)  at Texas/Los Angeles Atlanta (wc)  at Milwaukee

Or so I thought.

September 12, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
New York	88	57	.607	-	785	585	98.0	64.0	85.0	14.1	99.1
Boston	85	61	.582	3.5	783	638	93.9	68.1	13.9	74.3	88.2
Tampa Bay	81	64	.559	7.0	625	546	89.7	72.3	1.1	10.3	11.4
Toronto	74	73	.503	15.0	687	686	81.1	80.9	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	58	87	.400	30.0	614	765	64.2	97.8	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	84	62	.575	-	692	646	92.9	69.1	99.9	<0.1	99.9
Chicago	73	72	.503	10.5	590	606	81.6	80.4	<0.1	0	<0.1
Cleveland	72	72	.500	11.0	608	642	80.7	81.3	<0.1	0	<0.1
Kansas City	62	86	.419	23.0	650	711	69.1	92.9	0	0	0
Minnesota	59	87	.404	25.0	556	716	65.8	96.2	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	83	64	.565	-	765	632	91.9	70.1	84.8	0.3	85.1
Los Angeles	80	66	.548	2.5	599	564	88.5	73.5	15.2	0.9	16.1
Oakland	66	80	.452	16.5	593	629	73.7	88.3	0	0	0
Seattle	61	85	.418	21.5	500	600	67.8	94.2	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	94	49	.657	-	653	464	106.4	55.6	99.9	<0.1	100.0
Atlanta	84	63	.571	12.0	595	543	92.0	70.0	<0.1	93.1	93.1
New York	71	75	.486	24.5	651	669	78.4	83.6	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	67	77	.465	27.5	559	603	75.0	87.0	0	0	0
Florida	66	79	.455	29.0	578	638	73.4	88.6	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	86	62	.581	-	645	587	94.0	68.0	98.8	0.2	99.0
St. Louis	79	67	.541	6.0	679	628	87.6	74.4	1.2	6.5	7.7
Cincinnati	71	75	.486	14.0	673	644	80.2	81.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Pittsburgh	66	80	.452	19.0	550	624	72.9	89.1	0	0	0
Chicago	64	82	.438	21.0	596	697	71.4	90.6	0	0	0
Houston	49	97	.336	36.0	555	718	55.4	106.6	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	85	62	.578	-	662	615	93.1	68.9	99.8	<0.1	99.8
San Francisco	76	70	.521	8.5	492	511	83.8	78.2	0.2	0.2	0.4
Los Angeles	72	73	.497	12.0	565	558	80.5	81.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
Colorado	69	77	.473	15.5	671	683	76.9	85.1	0	0	0
San Diego	63	84	.429	22.0	549	572	70.2	91.8	0	0	0

Information from coolstandings.

The Red Sox stopped winning and let the Yankees overtake the lead in the AL East, while the Rays have exploded back into contention. The Tigers won nine straight and pulled ahead of the AL West for possible home field advantage. The Angels closed the gap on the Rangers by one game.

The Phillies maintained their winning ways and nearly clinched the NL East; meanwhile, the Cardinals swept the Braves and the Brewers lost five straight to make the races for the NL Wild Card and NL Central more interesting. The Braves dropped eight of their last 11, while the Cards have a five game winning streak. The Diamondbacks continue to astound and are very close to winning the NL West.

Twelve teams have lost their chance at the postseason, seven teams need a miracle, which leave 11 teams left in the actual race. Coolstandings uses a variation of Bill James' "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball" to predict the likelihood of a team winning their respectable division, wild card, or reaching the playoffs.

AL East: New York - 85.0%, Boston - 13.9%, Tampa Bay - 1.1%

AL Central: Detroit - 99.9%

AL West: Texas - 84.8%, Los Angeles - 15.2%

AL Wild Card: Boston - 74.3%, Tampa Bay - 10.3%, Los Angeles - 0.9%

NL East: Philadelphia - 99.9%

NL Central: Milwaukee - 98.8%, St. Louis - 1.2%

NL West: Arizona - 99.8%

NL Wild Card: Atlanta - 93.1%, St. Louis - 6.5%

That said, how freaky would it be to wake up in October and see something like this?

American League

National League

Tampa Bay (wc)

at Detroit

St. Louis (wc)

at Philadelphia

Texas

at Boston

Milwaukee

at Arizona

Predictable statistics is great, but I love seeing the improbable Cinderella stories even more.