Pirates Helped Rays

I realized something amusing last night: The Red Sox were knocked out from the AL Wild Card by the Pirates.

Bear with me and I'll explain my reasoning. Remember when the Red Sox rolled into Pittsburgh in late June earlier this year? Boston owned a record of 44-30, while tied for first with the New York Yankees in the AL East. Everyone expected them to roll over the Pirates in their three game series, but it didn't go as expected.

The Pirates managed to win the series 2-1, which gave them a winning record and caused Boston to slide into second place. Pittsburgh used the series against Boston to create momentum for the team. They eventually rose to first place in the NL Central and maintained a record above .500 until August.

Two games were all that stood between the Boston Red Sox and winning the American League Wild Card, so it only makes sense the Tampa Bay Rays should thank the Pirates for their postseason appearance.

Granted, the Red Sox lost two or more games to many other teams who were worse than the Pirates. The Rays could thank the Orioles who handed Boston their final loss of the season and inevitably shut their season down, but I choose to be charitable and thank the Pirates.

Moneyball

"How can you not be romantic about baseball?"

This little writeup is dedicated to a friend who doesn't believe in Moneyball and, thus, only follows sports with salary limitations.

I finally saw Moneyball Saturday night and it was amazing. I had to restrain myself from cheering at times. If you haven't seen it yet, go. Peter Brand reminded me of myself, though I'm not quite overweight and don't have the fancy degree from Yale. So if any general managers out there are reading this and want an assistant, I'm available.


Expensive players are not always the best, so more money does not always buy more wins. The eight 2011 playoff contenders consist of two bloated market teams, four near-average payroll teams, and two true Moneyballers.

2011 Postseason Bracket

The Yankees and Phillies have the most expensive payrolls in the American League and National League, respectively, so many expected them to have the best records at the end of 2011. The Diamondbacks took the NL West even though they had the sixth poorest payroll. The Rays took the AL Wild Card and only the Kansas City Royals had a lower payroll than them.

If money paid for wins, like so many people believe, then this is how the 2011 postseason should look like:

2011 Postseason Money Bracket

The Red Sox were in the hunt for the AL Wild Card, but fell in dramatic fashion. The Angels and Giants fought for a playoff slot, though came up short. The White Sox, Cubs, and Mets didn't even break the .500 mark.

Payroll win efficiency. I will expand on this subject later.

Pujols Streak Recap

The regular season is over and the Cardinals beat the Astros 8-0 to finish with a record of 90-72, which earns them the wild card and sends them to playoffs.

This post was originally written to explain how the Cards would face the Atlanta Braves tomorrow in a one game playoff to decide who would take the wild card slot, but the Braves continued their devastating collapse after blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies and eventually lost after 13 innings, 4-3. I wasn't prepared for this, so all I can say is shut up and enjoy it.

Let's talk about Albert Pujols. If you read my post on September 16th, then you may remember my prediction regarding Albert Pujols' streak. How did he do compared to my weighted prediction?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
2011 Total	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	61	58	0.366	0.541	0.906	0.2988
Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.2965
Difference +/-	+9	+1	+4	+1	0	- 2	- 4	- 4	+1	- 0.004	- 0.009	- 0.013	+0.0023

Sigh. So close, but his streak of 100 runs batted in and 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 ends at 10 consecutive seasons. Let's break it down to see what went wrong and what went right.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 16, 2011	4	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.372	0.549	0.921	0.301
Sep 17, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.372	0.546	0.918	0.301
Sep 18, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.371	0.550	0.921	0.300
Sep 19, 2011	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.369	0.548	0.918	0.299
Series Total	17	3	7	1	0	1	3	2	3	0.474	0.647	1.121	0.412
Result per AB	1	0.18	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.12	0.18
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 20, 2011	5	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.373	0.551	0.924	0.304
Sep 21, 2011	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.374	0.552	0.926	0.305
Sep 22, 2011	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.372	0.554	0.927	0.304
Series Total	14	5	7	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.786	1.286	0.500
Result per AB	1	0.36	0.50	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.00
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 23, 2011	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.372	0.554	0.926	0.304
Sep 24, 2011	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.302
Sep 25, 2011	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.369	0.547	0.916	0.300
Series Total	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.182	0.348	0.091
Result per AB	1	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.09
Prediction per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 26, 2011	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.369	0.548	0.916	0.301
Sep 27, 2011	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.367	0.544	0.910	0.300
Sep 28, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.366	0.542	0.908	0.299
Series Total	16	3	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.563	0.250
Result per AB	1	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.13
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Some of the differences from the norm are subtle, others are obvious. Albert performed extremely well versus the Phillies and Mets, average against the Astros, and terrible against the Cubs. He missed my home run prediction by two, which could have nudged his RBI total over 100. He managed to record 19 hits (two more than my previous estimate), but also accumulated nine more at bats.

It is possible Albert may have been overexerting himself to push for the .300 mark, which caused him to become less patient at the plate. I attended the game on the 25th in St. Louis and noticed him swinging at the first pitch on a couple occasions. This could explain the low walk count and more at bats than usual.

Regardless of this almost human-like season, Albert still recorded a season which will still receive votes for the National League MVP. Now let's think about October!

Pirates 2011 Final Record

72-90

I predicted 73-89, but the Brewers are just relentless against the Pirates. Prince Fielder hit three home runs in yesterday's game. Absurd.

Contrary to what others may tell you, this was a giant leap in the right direction for the Pirates organization.

Great season.

Cards 2011 Regular Season Finale

What a wild card race! No analysis yet. I've been far too busy enjoying the good and the bad.

The good.

The bad.

Game 162 is tonight, so tune in and let's see how the regular season ends!