World Series Intermission, Rain

It certainly is good I waited to write this post regarding game six of the World Series.

With persistent rain in the forecast, Major League Baseball has announced that Wednesday night's scheduled Game 6 of the World Series has been postponed. It will be made up on Thursday at 7:05 p.m. CT.

From St. Louis Cardinals Official Site

It's usually a bad idea to back a dog into a corner. The Texas Rangers may want to rethink what they are trying to do to the St. Louis Cardinals. I already wrote about the Cardinals being a good underdog, but I suppose this is inspiration to expand upon it.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Season & Postseason

Coolstandings predicted the likelihood of each team's chances of making the playoffs, then continued their calculation into the postseason. The Cards hit their lowest point on August 27th when they had only a 1.1% chance to reach the postseason, then clinched the Wild Card almost exactly one month later marking one of the best comebacks in Major League Baseball history.

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Postseason

The Cardinals have continued their improbable performance in the playoffs as they knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were favored to win the NLDS and NLCS, while the Cards entered with only a 35.6% and 45.5% chance, respectively. In particular, the Phillies had the best record in 2011 and were most likely to go all the way to win the World Series.

This is a do or die situation for the Cards. Many are speculating the possibility of Tony La Russa sending Chris Carpenter back to the mound on Thursday on three days rest in light of game six being rescheduled. I hope he sticks with Jaime Garcia as he pitched great in game two and took a no-decision. The Cards lost the game due to a fielding error and an unusually weak offense.

Beyond the Box Score researched how well pitchers have fared in the postseason with only three days rest since 2005. Eight of the 16 pitchers tossed quality starts, but the pitcher's respective team won only six times in that time frame.

When I think about Carp on short rest, it makes me think about his start against the Phillies in game two of the NLDS. Sure, the Cards may have won that game, but he gave up four earned runs over three innings pitched. The bullpen saved him for the remaining six innings by shutting the Phillies down. I am not sure it is wise to rely on the TLR parade of pitchers after game five.

The rain may help rest the Cardinals overworked pitching staff.

Game Five Headache

As per the title of this post, last night's game made my head hurt. 

C.J. Wilson did his best Edwin Jackson impersonation, walking five, but the St. Louis Cardinals offense could not capitalize against the Texas Rangers. They were 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 runners on base. Of course that value excludes Allen Craig who was caught "stealing" second base in the 7th inning and caught stealing second base in the 9th.


Source: FanGraphs
The Cardinals bullpen finally collapsed so hard that apparently the phones stopped working. Tony La Russa called Lance Lynn to the mound in the bottom of the 8th inning to intentionally walk Ian Kinsler, then pulled him in favor of Jason Motte. It boggled my mind.

The only factors of this game I enjoyed were Skip Schumaker starting in centerfield over Jon Jay and Chris Carpenter's seven inning performance. Skip actually recorded a hit, which is more than Jay has over the course of the entire World Series. Carp may have given up two home runs, but the score was still tied, 2-2, when he exited the game. It was a quality start and I almost wish he kept the ball in the 8th instead of handing it over to the bullpen parade.

I am going to stop and pass the blogging analysis torch to the following blogs before my headache returns. The Cardinals blogging community needs some love after last night, so please give the following articles a read and subscribe.

Beyond the Box Score
Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep

Cardinal 70
Winter is Coming

The Cardinal Nation blog 
Two of a record 65 Cardinals relief changes that did not work

Cards Diaspora
Reaction: World Series Game 5

FanGraphs
Did You Say Motte or Lynn? Ah, Screw it.
When IBBs Attack
Why Was Allen Craig Running?

Pitchers Hit Eighth
Can You Hear Me Now?

Viva El Birdos
Saying not very much at all about the Cardinals' Game 5 loss

Night and Day

I am somewhat happy about skipping yesterday's preview of World Series game four. After both teams scored a total of only eight runs in chilly Missouri, everyone expected the ball to fly off the bat in warm Texas. The St. Louis Cardinals answered those initial expectations by scoring almost twice that many runs by themselves in game three to win 15-7.

The Cards recorded 15 hits in that game, five were by Albert Pujols. Of those 15 hits, four were home runs and Pujols was accountable for almost a quarter-mile of them (3 HR = 1,275 feet total).

I had other engagements earlier in the afternoon and was not completely familiar with Edwin Jackson nor Derek Holland, aside from their above-average regular seasons and below-average postseasons thus far, so I thought I could skip the preview and analyze game four's outcome.

Would the hot offensive streak continue? Oy vey.

The Texas Rangers won, 4-0, and tied the series 2-2. The game almost hurt to watch as a Cardinals fan. Holland completely shut down the Cards offense in 8.1 innings pitched, while allowing only two hits. Lance Berkman was the owner of both hits and he very well couldn't create four runs by himself. Jackson allowed seven free passes over 5.1 innings. Let me emphasize that:

Seven walks.

He was pulled in the sixth inning after issuing two back-to-back walks, then Mitchell Boggs threw a fastball higher than intended, which traveled farther than he wanted. Mike Napoli hit a three-run homer to make the score 4-0, which is how the game eventually ended.

It is amazing how a lineup can be so devastating one day, then so fragile and weak the next. It's like night and day, but that's just how baseball works sometimes.

Game five marks the last game played in Arlington. The outcome will result in a do-or-die situation for the losing team in St. Louis.

Will we see a night or day performance?

Will the Cardinals have a happy flight home tonight or will they face elimination on Wednesday?

Pujols Hot in Texas, Cards Win

The St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers relied on pitching for games one and two with cold temperatures in Missouri. Albert Pujols went 0 for six with an error in the ninth inning of game two. He was harshly criticized when he dodged the media. How did he respond in game three?

Albert Pujols, World Series, Game 3

Albert got hot!

I wrote about how he recorded the best performance in a postseason game in Cardinals franchise history against the Milwaukee Brewers in game two of the NLCS. Fungoes wrote about how that same performance ranked him 24th overall.

Albert was accredited with creating 11.667 runs in a 16-7 romping over the Texas Rangers. His postseason performance ranks him 3rd all time. He crushed three home runs in a single game in the World Series, which allows him to go down in history with Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth who also accomplished this feat.




Source: FanGraphs
The Cards were never losing at any point in tonight's game, but Albert's first home run essentially sealed the Rangers' fate in the sixth inning. His second and third blasts did not even appear on the radar, they were just icing on the delicious cake.

Albert Pujols hits HR number three, St. Louis Cardinals Facebook

Rangers Still WS Favorites, Game 3

The Texas Rangers proved they will not go quietly into the night when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals and tied the series 1-1. The Rangers were favorites to win the World Series when they entered game one, marginal favorites in game two, and favorites again in game three. Beyond the Box Score shows their likelihood to win the World Series has bounced back to their initial level before the series began.

Progressive Likelihood of World Series, Beyond the Box Score

Game three will be hosted in Arlington tonight, but will the Cardinals manage to win any of the three games in Texas? Will the series come back to Busch Stadium?

Maybe I'm thinking too far in the future. Let's just concentrate on tonight.

K. Lohse vs. M. Harrison, 2011 regular season, Fangraphs

Kyle Lohse and Matt Harrison looks almost identical side-by-side. Lohse is a little older and his BABIP indicates a little luck. Without the luck, it shows Harrison has been the better pitcher this year, but only marginally.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching 2011

Texas Rangers Pitching 2011

Both pitching staffs were comparable in the regular season with the Rangers recording slightly more strikeouts and walks than the Cardinals. Their postseason numbers have been nearly identical thus far, but their World Series statistics are slightly off. Both teams have not been allowing as many runs as usual. The Cards have been striking out batters more often and walking them less often, while the Rangers had the opposite trend.

Each team has scored only four runs over the first two games. That is only an average of two runs per game. Everyone expects the offense to pick up in Texas with the hitter friendly ballpark and warmer temperatures. The pitching seemed so unsatisfactory in the Championship series, yet both teams have recorded amazing numbers overall. The law of averages show it should not last.

After all, it's the law. But who will break the law first, and when?