2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Updated April 2, 2012 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.

Code	Website Name	Twitter	Weighted Value	Last Update
CBS	CBS Fantasy Sports	@CBSFantasyBB	1	April 2
CHGM	ClubHouse GM	@ClubHouseGM	2	February 17
ESPN	ESPN Fantasy Staff	@ESPNFantasy	1	March 30
FBC	Fantasy Baseball Cafe	@FBC_GiantsFan14	1	February 24
FBCJ	Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks	@FBCrackerjacks	3	February 12
FGD	Fantasy Gameday	@Fantasy_Gameday	5	March 6
FOX	FOX Sports	@FOXSportsFowler	1	March 7
MB	Matthew Berry from ESPN	@MatthewBerryTMR	1	March 20
RB	Razzball	@Razzball	1	February 23
RC	Roto Champ	@RotoChamp	1	April 1
RS	Roto Summit	@JesseSakstrup	1	March 26
THC	Tristan H. Cockcroft from ESPN	@SultanofStat	1	March 27
THT	The Hardball Times	@THTFantasy	4	April 1
YAVG	Yahoo Draft Average	@YahooFantasy	1	April 2
YHOO	Yahoo Experts	@YahooNoise	4	April 2

Players who will not play in 2012 were removed to avoid the possibility of old data misleading anyone.

I will try to make every attempt to update this page frequently to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked Albert Pujols in their top three which is why he has the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft him with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk.

• Ryan Braun could miss 50 games due to a PED suspension. Suspension appealed, waiting for updates!
  
• Carl Crawford may not bounce back.
  
• Lance Berkman may not have a repeat performance.
  
• Kevin Youkilis has been injury prone.
  
• Josh Johnson & Adam Wainwright are recovering from injuries.
  
• Ryan Howard will start the season late.

Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision. A great example is Yu Darvish who is a potential ace, but no one can be sure as he has never faced batters in the Major League. He was generally ranked anywhere from 79th to 131st, which means he can be expected to draft somewhere between rounds 7 and 11. FOX was the greatest outlier who ranked him the highest at 253, but don't count on him staying on the board that long.

This wariness allows you the potential to draft someone later as long as everyone else in your draft carries the same mutual uncertainty, but Yu better not count on it.

Sorry, I went there.

Not Dead, Just Planning Ahead

I realize it has been over two weeks since my last article, but I am still alive and kicking. I have been working on several ideas at once rather than one at a time, but the most notable will be published tomorrow. I finally received the data I was waiting on in order to continue my fantasy baseball draft compilation and found a way to have it "automatically" update itself. Everything was entered manually up until that point, so doing this helped me recognize and correct several small errors, such as players who were ranked incorrectly, missing, and sorted improperly. Get excited!

Here are a few topics I'm still working on. Feel free to express any enthusiasm or disinterest.

• Payroll Win Efficiency: How much does a team pay to win?
  
• How Houston Moving Affects the MLB
  
• MLB Divisional Travel Efficiency
  
• League Realignment Proposals
  
• MLB Expansion Ideas
  
• How to Expand the MLB Playoffs
  

I have been enjoying a baseball simulation game called Two Out Rally which is a multiplayer online role-playing game. You play the game as a scout who can create players, write their stories, distribute their skill points, sign a contract with a team, train, and essentially help guide their destiny as a baseball player. You also have the ability to create and run your own team.

Season 12 just started with the introduction of Gamecast, which was inspired by the style of the ESPN baseball Gamecast. The developers are very responsive to ideas and there are always scouts around to help. If you're interested, then you should check them out and create a player using the link below so I can refer you.

http://www.twooutrally.com/referral.php?rid=5088

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In other news, my girlfriend suddenly became a baseball card collecting enthusiast when she saw the newest Rally Squirrel baseball card coming in 2012 Topps Series 1. I admit. It is cute.

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Before you leave today, please cast your vote for my 2012 fantasy baseball team names based upon the formerly popular Super Nintendo game, Super Baseball 2020. Select as many names as you want. Thanks!

Fantasy Baseball Team Names: Which team names should be chosen from Super Baseball 2020?
	American Dreams
	Tokyo Samurais
	Naples Seagulls
	Taiwan Megapowers
	Korea Dragoon
	Battle Angels
	Battle Heroes
	Ninja Blacksox
	Aussie Battlers
	Mechanical Brains
	Metal Slashers
	Tropical Girls
pollcode.com free polls

My Reply: What Else Should the Pirates Do?

Battling Bucs just posted a new article this evening entitled What Else Should the Pirates Do? I wanted to respond to them with my own thoughts, but it got lengthy and out of hand and decided to simply write about it myself.

I highly suggest reading his original post before checking out my response to it.

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I agree the Pirates are essentially the same team as last year. Their free agent losses were offset by those who were acquired thus far, but I think there's still an opportunity to improve. He requests a more "serviceable" backstop option behind Rod Barajas, Michael McKenry, and Jose Morales then suggests Chris Snyder who seems to be the last semi-viable catcher left on the free agent market. His price may be lower than the $6.75 million contract option which was declined, but I'm not sure I can justify providing a backup catcher a multimillion dollar contract. The catcher position has been fairly weak over the course of history, aside from a few notable exceptions, so I feel the money could be better spent elsewhere.

I've looked at a few projected 25-man rosters for the Pittsburgh Pirates and it is still quite depressing even after the acquisitions made this offseason. Andrew McCutchen deserves to bat third, which Battling Bucs' projection displays, but Neil Walker batting cleanup is joke. The team is still missing a bat with power, which was supposedly a priority. Perhaps Pedro Alvarez will snap out of his funk, but I won't bet money on it.

Although there are several healthy options to play first base, he chooses to stick with Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee who will be under team control for the next four and three seasons, respectively. It's an interesting decision, though McGehee had a performance comparably dismal performance last season similar to Alvarez. They both have the potential to hit 20 or more home runs, so it is possible they could eventually land into the #4 and #5 slots of the Pirates lineup behind McCutchen.

Unfortunately, I don't share his optimism and would prefer to acquire a free agent, if only for a season or two. Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are both almost certainly waiting until Prince Fielder signs, then the scramble will begin for first baseman. Lee experienced a small resurgence when he was traded to Pittsburgh last July, though I suppose I can understand why he would prefer not to come back. If either player would swallow their pride to play for the lowly Pirates, then we would have someone who could hit 20 or more home runs and would be a clear choice to bat cleanup.

I'm excited to see what Erik Bedard can do for us and hope he stays healthy for most of the season. Kevin Correia has me worried considering how poorly he did when he pitched at home. The rest of the rotation is still quite young, so maybe last season's experiences will help them grow and develop into better pitchers in 2012. Our rotation is not very threatening no matter how you look at it and understand his reasoning toward Jeff Francis.

Francis would be a conventional, low-risk decision similar to when Correia was acquired last season, but I still would prefer my previous suggestion, Brandon Webb: high-risk with the potential of high reward at little cost. The next exciting option beyond Webb is Roy Oswalt, who supposedly lowered his asking price and just may be Pirates price range. They will never land Lee/Pena and Oswalt, though it is increasingly doubtful they will end up with any of them.

I published my pitching article less than a week ago and four of my top nine options have signed since then, so they're falling fast now with only 32 days left until pitchers/catchers report for Spring Training and 78 days until Opening Day.

Fantasy Nomad Show

Michael Pichan invited me to be a guest on the Fantasy Nomad Show. We both participated in the fantasy baseball mock draft almost a month ago (has it been that long already?) and we compared our notes against each other. My segment starts around the 46 minute mark after some talk about basketball. Here's the show description and a link to the show. I apologize in advance for my microphone. :(

The Fantasy Nomad Show, brought to you by RotoInfo.com, returns to the air waves for 2012 with the same great Fantasy Sports Insight and Analysis and Great Guests including:

Scott Malewig ( @Sports_25toLife & @fakebasketball ) of TheFakeBasketball.com joins the show to help you score some early season success in your Fantasy Basketball leagues and help overcome the injuries that seem to be stacking up in this shortened NBA season.

Ryan Sendek ( @AATH_Baseball ) from AnalysisAroundTheHorn.blogspot.com compares notes with the Fantasy Nomad, from their recent Expert Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, to help you identify some draft trends and values.

For more Fantasy Sports Insight bookmark RotoInfo.com and follow them on twitter @RotoInfo_Com to get "All Your Fantasy Sports News All The Time."

Outro song "Believe In Make Believe" performed by rapper JZac. Be sure to follow JZac on Facebook and on You Tube to hear more of his work and find out when he will be in concert.

Listen to internet radio with RotoinfoXcomX on Blog Talk Radio

Ryan's microphone makes baseball fans cry.

How Can You Replace Ross Ohlendorf?

As I asked in the title, how can you replace Ross Ohlendorf? Here is the simplest answer:

Easily.

The former Pittsburgh Pirate was non-tendered on December 9, 2011 before the arbitration deadline and is now a free agent, which adds him to the thinning pool of starting pitchers. This is perfectly fine by me as he has been a AAAA-level pitcher throughout his career, though this past season was especially dismal. Sure, he missed nearly the entire season due to nagging shoulder injuries, but he was no ace beforehand. The injury simply adds another problem to his resume.

These spreadsheets were compiled using data I gathered from FanGraphs. The players included on the following spreadsheet are all free agent starting pitchers included on MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Tracker except Sergio Mitre who did not start any games in 2011.



There are 24 starting pitchers in the free agent pool created by MLBTR. I sorted them using my own metric: WAR/GS, which is simply their wins above replacement divided by their games started. Only Scott Kazmir and Armando Galarraga had a worse WAR/GS than Ohlendorf, Galarraga also had the lowest WAR among the group.

If we only use this near-sighted information, then it shows nearly any of these candidates should be an improvement over Ohlendorf. This very well may be true, though it would be best to increase our scope to the past three years. This next spreadsheet includes every free agent starting pitcher from MLBTR as well as some who have not yet declared retirement.



Broadening our scope increases the pool of free agents from 24 to 36 and Ohlendorf's WAR/GS score increases from -0.07 to a mere +0.02. 26 pitchers rank above him while 9 are below. This is a reasonable starting point, though I should quickly point out Clay Hensley as an outlier. He ranked the highest due to his fine performance as a relief pitcher for the Marlins in 2010.

Based upon Pirates Prospects estimation, the team should have $4 to $13 million left before they reach their aforementioned $50 million payroll threshold, depending upon arbitration agreements. That should be plenty to sign one pitcher for one or two seasons, which should be just long enough until Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon is ready for the big leagues.

It would be great if we managed to sign Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Joel Pineiro, Javier Vazquez or Hiroki Kuroda, but I am sure they would need to be overpaid and would be reluctant to agree upon a short-term contract. Oswalt may have interest in a one year contract, though I seriously doubt any willingness to move to the home of the double decade loser after having a taste of winning on the other side of Pennsylvania.

That leaves 20 pitchers who could still be an upgrade over Ohlendorf. Age should not be a major factor given the likelihood of a short-term deal. My ideal starting pitcher candidate would either have the capability to accumulate strikeouts while also maintaining control or preference toward ground ball outs. He would also have a reasonable price tag, which could be due to recovery from an injury but have the potential upside to outweigh the risk, similarly to Erik Bedard.

These potential candidates fall directly behind Oswalt et al: Jeff Francis, Bartolo Colon, Vicente Padilla, and Carlos Silva. They are all in their early 30s aside from Colon who will be 39. None of them will blow anyone away with strikeout power, but they manage to maintain a healthy K/BB ratio while recording more ground balls. Aaron Cook won't record many strikeouts and may have some difficulty with control, but he has the best GB/FB ratio on the board. (I forgot Cook was recently signed by the Boston Red Sox.) Rich Harden definitely can get the strikeouts, but he allows even more walks, fly balls, and home runs than Ohlendorf.

Most of the other pitchers are quite comparable to Ohlendorf's basement baseline and may be a modestly cheap addition until Charlie Morton recovers from surgery or as an alternative to Brad Lincoln, though the final name on the list would be most intriguing and possibly more exciting than our Bedard acquisition: Brandon Webb.



Webb was a former National League Cy Young award winner for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but has not pitched a full season since 2008. He was placed on the disabled list in April of 2009 due to shoulder bursitis and underwent surgery on his right shoulder. The Texas Rangers took the risk on him last season for only $3 million and began the season still on the disabled list. He attempted a rehab minor league start in late May of 2011, his first game in over two years, but would undergo a second surgery on his right rotator cuff that would keep him from pitching again in 2011.

Jon Heyman from CBS reported recently, "Webb began throwing in late December. Agent, Jonathan Maurer, said arm feels 'strong and loose.'" He will turn 33 toward the beginning of 2012 and may never return to his previous caliber of performance. Considering Webb, someone who has not pitched on the major league level for almost three years, may not be the direction the Pirates will take, but he would have the most potential upside out of all the free agent starting pitchers available and should be quite affordable. Just look at Webb's weighted average on my last chart. He would be an amazing acquisition if he could come close to those numbers.

I say give him a chance. What's your opinion?