Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Who Should Draft Consistently in 2012

I shared a compilation of player rankings from five websites last week in order to prepare for the 2012 fantasy baseball season. The spreadsheets I created included the unweighted and weighted averages from the player rankings. In case you missed these previous posts, both lists can be accessed below as well as the standard deviation, which will help determine the consistency of one's drafting position.

The first sheet listed below is entitled "Measuring Draft Consistency" and will be the topic I will focus upon. A low standard deviation score should help us determine which players are locks in particular rounds of the draft depending upon how the experts ranked them, while a higher score should raise concern. I calculated a player's Average Draft Round (ADR) based upon their average rank with and without weight while also assuming a standard Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball 12 team league with 23 picks per team.

Disclaimer: Just because someone ranks somewhere on my lists still means he could be drafted earlier or later. Please use these spreadsheets as a guide, not fact.

Your first round draft picks consistently occupy the top 17 slots aside from Evan Longoria who is ranked 28th. Most of your early rounders scored a low standard deviation score, though there was some consistency in a few late round picks as well. For example, Miguel Montero is ranked 19th and falls in the 9th round and Joel Hanrahan is ranked 41st and had an ADR of 132 on both lists.

A few players to be wary of on draft day were generally drafted early, but had a very high standard deviation. The most obvious candidates are Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard, who both may miss a significant amount of playing time next season. Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson both fell in the 9th round overall, but were all over the board due to our hesitance as they mutually recover from injuries.

I quickly did an eyeball comparison between this list and our slow mock draft from last month. Some players aligned with these predictions, while others were drafted earlier or later. This can be expected because our draft was setup in a different format when compared to Yahoo. It also shows you can sometimes afford to wait and reach for some players. Derek Jeter was the 224th pick in our draft, while most would claim him much earlier. This could have been the best pick of the entire draft, though everyone questioned it.

These spreadsheets will be updated and re-released once Fantasy Gameday publishes their list. I will attempt to update this data if any of my referenced analysts updates their lists.

(BleacherGM, CBS Sports, Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks, Mock Draft Central via KFFL, Roto Summit)

Before you leave today, please cast your vote for my 2012 fantasy baseball team names based upon the formerly popular Super Nintendo game, Super Baseball 2020. Select as many names as you want. Thanks for voting!

Fantasy Baseball Team Names:

Which team names should be chosen from Super Baseball 2020?

American Dreams
Tokyo Samurais
Naples Seagulls
Taiwan Megapowers
Korea Dragoon
Battle Angels
Battle Heroes
Ninja Blacksox
Aussie Battlers
Mechanical Brains
Metal Slashers
Tropical Girls

pollcode.com free polls 

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