Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Brain Over Braun

Ryan Braun was declared the National League MVP in 2011 and many analysts declared him the number one draft pick in fantasy baseball leagues until he was accused of using a performance-enhancing drug on December 10, 2011. He faced a 50-game suspension, which would have caused him to miss almost one third of the season and seriously hurt his fantasy value because of it.

Ryan Braun was shocked when he was accused of using PEDs in 2011.

Braun finally won his appeal on February 23, 2012. He stated during a press conference, "I am very pleased and relieved by today's decision. It is the first step in restoring my good name and reputation. We were able to get through this because I am innocent and the truth is on our side."

Many analysts corrected their rankings and projections as soon as this occurred, while some dragged their feet. It has been two weeks since that announcement, yet three of my 14 references still show him as a 31st draft pick or worse which is causing his rank on my 2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings spreadsheet to skew. The Yahoo Draft Average takes every draft into account, including those before the appeal was announced, so this variance is understandable and will correct itself over time. ClubHouseGM and Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks released their draft kits in mid-February before the appeal and still have him ranked 41st and 76th, respectively.

What happens if these outliers are ignored?


Removing these erroneous values updates Braun on this compilation from a 14th overall pick to 4th behind Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Matt Kemp. His standard deviation is reduced from 106th (21.67) to 6th (2.54), while his weighted and unweighted ranks are both improved to 4th.

This is a great example why I decided to calculate and include the standard deviation value for every player. I am not going to omit these three data sets from my compilation even though they may be outdated compared to the others. They may be inaccurate in regards to Braun, but everything else is great.

Just remember it should be an easy decision to take Braun in the top half of the first round.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Stat Targets in Roto Leagues

Michael Marinakis from Fantasy Baseball Cafe and Jeff Furtah from ClubHouseGM both wrote about statistics you should target when you draft your fantasy baseball team in a rotisserie league. They were written in regards to different league formats, however both came to similar conclusions.

You do not need to win every category in your league to win. Your goal is to create a balanced team who can reach 3rd or 4th place in each category. Jeff reinforced this idea using his past experiences, while Michael shared his success from a mock draft using projections. The winners in his 12 team leagues averaged 98 points, which varied from 96 to 101. I can also attest to the accuracy of his data by comparing it to my own. The winners of my previous leagues in the same format averaged 97 points, which varied from 85 to 110. If you strive beyond third place, then you may be wasting your picks or resources.

For example, a team led the saves category in one of my league's last season with 168 while the team behind them only had 120. That effectively means they had one more closer than necessary. You could make the argument that perhaps their goal was to pad their ERA and WHIP categories with relief pitchers, though I can assure you they failed in both categories. Their offense was middle of the road and their pitching was poor aside from saves. If this team in question had not allocated their draft picks poorly by acquiring an overabundance of closers so early in the draft, then perhaps they would have fared better in the league.

Both writers predicted an alleged goal for a winning team in a league of the format they covered. They admit their provided information may not be useful unless you participate in their league type, though Jeff claims he has a solution and offers individual player averages:


"The reason the individual numbers are so important is you can simply take the number of roster spots you have for both hitters and pitchers and multiply that by the averages here to get the totals you need to strive for. Obviously if you are in a deeper league (in terms of teams or roster spots) the averages would be slightly less and if your in a league with less than 12 teams or fewer roster spots they'll be slightly higher.

"Once you have your total stats needed, either using the overall numbers above or by modifying the averages to fit your league, you need to create a simple spreadsheet. As you're drafting your team fill in the projections for each player. As you start adding up the totals you can quickly identify gaps so you're not scrambling near the end of your draft."

The following table compares the average statistics gathered from several of my mock drafts from ESPN and my Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues from the past two seasons. Our supposed statistical goals at third and fourth place are emboldened.


The standard rotisserie league format is quite different when you compare an ESPN mock draft to a Yahoo fantasy league even though they may both use a 12 team format. Yahoo drafts 23 players for 10 hitting positions, 8 pitchers, and 5 bench holders; while ESPN is a little deeper with 25 players drafted for 13 hitting positions, 9 pitchers, and 3 bench holders.


The target data I provided above was calculated simply by using the opposite of Jeff's calculation. The ESPN data was divided by their available hitting and pitching positions (rather than multiplying), likewise with Yahoo, while disregarding the bench.

ESPN's projection system is slightly skewed because it includes your draft picks on the bench whose statistics should not be included in a true league. This explains the variance from Jeff's estimate, otherwise I can agree his data is quite accurate and a great starting point when you prepare before your draft day.

You can find this information and much more when you use the ClubHouseGM 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.
I recommend checking it out.

Friday, February 24, 2012

The Boy and His Baseball Game

I hope to join Full Spectrum Baseball in their fantasy baseball league opportunity and here is a story to outline all of my credentials.

Dear Mr. Fantasy recently wrote an article entitled Fantasy Baseball: An Early Form of Social Media. He recollected his first fantasy baseball league in 1992. Twenty years ago! I thought it would be neat to recollect my fantasy baseball history as well.


The title of this post was inspired by a story written by Day[9]TV, "The Boy And His Game."

If you read my introductory post when this blog was first created in September of 2011 or read my About section, then you know I have been a huge baseball fan since I was very young. I could not play well, so I did the only things available to an nonathletic nerd: I went to games, followed the statistics, and collected baseball cards. When that wasn't enough, I decided to take it a step further and created my own fantasy baseball league. Of course I never called it fantasy baseball because I did not yet realize it existed.

This began with a simple game I received when I was only ten years old. It involved placing baseball cards into their corresponding positions on a mat shaped like a baseball field, then you would spin a wheel to determine the fate of the batter (single, double, strikeout, etc). This enhanced my craving for more baseball cards and held my interest for a while until I yearned for more.

I decided to expand upon this idea sometime after my parents purchased our family's first computer, an Apple Macintosh Performa LC 500 series. It was an "all-in-one" with the system built into the monitor. The most unique feature was the CD-ROM drive that popped out like a cassette. I eventually got the hang of how to use a computer and wanted to use it for everything.

All of the data I created and recorded before the computer has since been lost because everything at the time was done by hand. A new era began in 1996 when I was a mere twelve years old. Of course I cannot recollect everything from that time period as it was half a lifetime ago, but I can infer everything I found stored in my 15 year old binder.

"Ryan's Baseball League" was not your typical fantasy baseball league. It began simply as a transposition of one team's record into another fictional team I created. The leagues were laid out identically to the MLB at the time and teams were matched up by randomly assigning them from out of a hat (i.e. Phoenix Falcons = Houston Astros, Denver Avalance = California Angels, etc). I gathered the data from our local newspaper since we did not have the internet quite yet and calculated the standings. Keep in mind, I was only twelve years old.

I asked some of my friends to become managers in my league in 1997. Eight people agreed to join and I decided to take the league a step further by drafting the players to the teams as well. I do not recall how the players were drafted, though I am certain some favoritism was involved for teams with human managers. I determined both league's MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and wrote a story about their playoff race.

The most notable addition to this season was the addition of two new teams to bring the team total to 30 and balance the leagues at 15 teams each. Why is this special? The Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks were added to the MLB in 1998, so how on earth did I come up with the standings? I wish I could recall how I decided upon the team standings in 1997 because it may explain what happened next.

The league continued into 1998 with the addition of two more managers. I must have stumbled upon MacPaint while I was feeling exceptionally creative because I made logos for all 30 teams. Most of them are pretty lame, then I remember I was fourteen. I have to admit I am quite proud of my logos I created for the Charlotte Spurs, Atlanta Heat, Cleveland Cobras, and San Antonio Suns. My girlfriend liked the Denver Avalanche, Houston Black Hawks, Jacksonville Manta Rays, and Seattle Squids. This was also the year I discovered Comic Sans as you can see from the photos.

The league rolled along without much change from the previous season. The standings were determined and the playoff stories were written. One of the newest additions to the league included statistical leaders to support my awards. A quick glance at Baseball Reference shows I must have gathered the data from the newspaper once again.

The most exciting thing I discovered from this binder was the last photo I included in the album, Stadiums of "Ryan's League." The first thing I asked myself when I rediscovered these pages was "Did I to figure out park factors?" I was a smart kid, but I don't believe I can credit myself for that.

Unfortunately that is where the binder ends and I can only assume why because of a combination of several reasons: 1) My friends no longer cared for baseball as the Pirates were constantly losing, 2) I was in middle school and had trouble finding the time, 3) Girls became attractive once they lost their cooties, and 4) I found fantasy baseball online.

As you can see, I am a fantasy baseball veteran and intend to manage at least five teams this season. I have not placed higher than fourth since returning in 2010, but plan to change that this year. Although I experienced I hiatus from the sport during the mid-2000s, I am following the game more closely than ever. Why else would I have a blog about baseball?

If there is prevailing interest in my childhood baseball league binder, then I may properly scan all the pages from my binder to include in the album but keep in mind it's extensive. Leave a comment or contact me via Twitter/Facebook/email if you're interested!

Friday, February 17, 2012

Yahoo Top 400 Rankings

Did anyone else realize it is unusually difficult to access the Yahoo fantasy baseball player rankings?

Yahoo's baseball experts published their top 100 recently, but that is a far cry from what is needed to prepare for your draft. Not including Yahoo on my list is ridiculous as they are one of the fantasy sports leaders, especially if your teams are drafted here, so I tried to reach out to them for answers:


This was problematic as I am not planning on drafting my first team at least until March. Luckily I have a friend who already has a team and was gracious enough to copy the data into a spreadsheet for me. It took a lot of time from his afternoon and I am very thankful for it.

While he did this for me, I jumped into a mock draft by myself and copied their overall draft rankings to compare them against the experts. All of this data can be found in my updated spreadsheet which is still available via the tab on the top of this page or you can simply click here.

Additionally, I want to provide this data we retrieved to everyone. You can access this spreadsheet using the following link. Some names may be slightly misspelled and it's not as "pretty," but it's legitimate data from Yahoo. Please use it and enjoy it.

Yahoo Top 400 - 2012 Rankings

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Fantasy Foot Race

One for the money...
You may not be keeping a watchful eye on my post that contains my 2012 fantasy baseball overall ranks, but it has been updated several times since it was first re-published on February 2nd. In case you don't have the page bookmarked already, you can access the list using the tab on the top of the page or this link.

Several new contributors were selected in addition to those who were previously mentioned. These new websites include Fantasy Baseball Cafe, Fox Sports, and The Hardball Times.

I would very much like to include Yahoo's list, but it is only available to players who currently have a team or have an official draft scheduled. I do not intend to draft my first team until at least March 1st after Spring Training actually starts. They do have a top 100 available to the general public, but I am avoiding lists shorter than 250 players. If you happen to have this list available to you and would like to share it with me and everyone else by proxy, then please contact me.

Two for the show...
In my travels across the web, I discovered two websites who had the same idea as mine. Feel free to check them out and compare my list to theirs.

Fantasy Pros - Expert Consensus Ranking
Mr. Cheatsheet - 2012 Roto Draft Cheatsheet

Three to get set...
I took my spreadsheet for a test drive in a three mock drafts just to see how it functioned, if it worked at all. Check out the results and let me know what you think:

Mock Draft #1 Mock Draft #2 Mock Draft #3
Draft Position: 3rd
1. Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pit - OF)
3. Cliff Lee (Phi - SP)
4. Ben Zobrist (TB - 2B,OF)
5. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B)
6. Yu Darvish (Tex - SP)
7. Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - SS)
8. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF)
9. Brian Wilson (SF - RP)
10. Jesus Montero (Sea - Util)
11. Chris Young (Ari - OF)
12. Sergio Santos (Tor - RP)
13. Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP)
14. Mike Moustakas (KC - 3B)
15. Adam Lind (Tor - 1B)
16. Derek Holland (Tex - SP)
17. Doug Fister (Det - SP)
18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
19. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP)
20. Chris Capuano (LAD - SP)
21. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
22. David Robertson (NYY - RP)
23. Zack Cozart (Cin - SS)
Draft Position: 10th
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
2. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)
3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF)
4. Carlos Santana (Cle - C,1B)
5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)
6. Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)
7. James Shields (TB - SP)
8. Carl Crawford (Bos - OF)
9. Adam Wainwright (StL - SP)
10. Joel Hanrahan (Pit - RP)
11. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
12. Chris Carpenter (StL - SP)
13. Jason Motte (StL - RP)
14. Doug Fister (Det - SP)
15. Emilio Bonifacio (Mia - 3B,SS,OF)
16. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
17. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP)
18. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B)
19. Roy Oswalt (Phi - SP)
20. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
21. Jonny Venters (Atl - RP)
22. Mike Trout (LAA - OF)
23. Shelby Miller (StL - RP)
Draft Position: 12th
1. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)
2. Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)
3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF)
4. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B)
5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)
6. Jon Lester (Bos - SP)
7. Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
8. Drew Storen (Was - RP)
9. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF)
10. Mat Latos (Cin - SP)
11. Freddie Freeman (Atl - 1B)
12. Jordan Zimmermann (Was - SP)
13. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
14. Erick Aybar (LAA - SS)
15. Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)
16. Jaime García (StL - SP)
17. John Danks (CWS - SP)
18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF)
19. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP)
20. Jose Tabata (Pit - OF)
21. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B)
22. Ricky Nolasco (Mia - SP)
23. Tyler Clippard (Was - RP)


And four to go!
Just a friendly reminder to experiment in these mock drafts while given the opportunity. This season I am considering spending a pick on a non-closer relief pitcher in order to buffer my ERA and WHIP categories. There's no better place to test strategies than mock drafts.