2011 Playoff Predictions

September started with the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers guaranteed a winning season of .500 or better. In retrospect, only the Royals and Astros were guaranteed losing records at that point. Eight teams were already knocked out of contention for the playoffs and eight were circling the drain to join them, which left 14 still competing for a shot at the postseason.

August 31, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Boston	83	52	.615	-	729	565	98.8	63.2	61.9	37.5	99.4
New York	81	53	.604	1.5	732	538	97.9	64.1	38.0	60.7	98.7
Tampa Bay	74	61	.548	9.0	575	511	87.1	74.9	0.2	1.6	1.7
Toronto	68	68	.500	15.5	640	623	80.3	81.7	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	54	80	.403	28.5	567	706	64.1	97.9	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	75	61	.551	-	614	608	88.8	73.2	82.1	<0.1	82.1
Cleveland	68	65	.511	5.5	565	576	82.7	79.3	8.5	<0.1	8.5
Chicago	68	66	.507	6.0	544	546	83.0	79.0	9.4	<0.1	9.4
Minnesota	57	79	.419	18.0	523	671	67.4	94.6	0	0	0
Kansas City	56	81	.409	19.5	596	657	68.2	93.8	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	77	60	.562	-	689	591	91.2	70.8	82.9	0.1	83.0
Los Angeles	73	63	.537	3.5	552	528	87.1	74.9	17.1	0.2	17.3
Oakland	60	76	.441	16.5	536	576	72.8	89.2	<0.1	0	<0.1
Seattle	58	77	.430	18.0	470	555	69.5	92.5	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	86	46	.652	-	599	429	104.9	57.1	98.4	1.6	99.9
Atlanta	80	55	.593	7.5	554	490	94.2	67.8	1.6	96.1	97.7
New York	65	69	.485	22.0	592	607	78.6	83.4	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	63	71	.470	24.0	514	548	76.2	85.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Florida	60	75	.444	27.5	524	602	71.1	90.9	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	81	56	.591	-	605	551	94.8	67.2	98.5	0.2	98.7
St. Louis	72	64	.529	8.5	634	591	85.4	76.6	1.5	1.8	3.3
Cincinnati	67	69	.493	13.5	629	593	81.5	80.5	0.1	0.1	0.1
Pittsburgh	62	74	.456	18.5	519	577	73.8	88.2	0	0	0
Chicago	59	78	.431	22.0	553	659	70.3	91.7	0	0	0
Houston	47	90	.343	34.0	528	674	57.5	104.5	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	78	59	.569	-	612	573	91.3	70.7	95.2	0.1	95.2
San Francisco	72	65	.526	6.0	460	483	83.7	78.3	4.5	0.2	4.7
Los Angeles	65	70	.481	12.0	524	520	79.3	82.7	0.3	<0.1	0.3
Colorado	64	73	.467	14.0	626	642	76.2	85.8	<0.1	0	<0.1
San Diego	60	77	.438	18.0	514	529	72.2	89.8	<0.1	0	<0.1

Information from coolstandings.

W- Wins, L- Losses, PCT- Winning Percentage, GB- Games Back, RS- Runs Scored, RA- Runs Allowed, EXPW- Expected season Wins, EXPL- Expected season Losses, DIV- Chance of winning the Division, WC- Chance of winning the Wild Card, POFF- Chance of making the Playoffs.

A few teams seemed too far gone, so I thought the only real race was in the AL West division between the Rangers and Angels. It seemed the only other question was deciding who would be the AL East champion or Wild Card berth, the Yankees or Red Sox. All the other slots for the playoffs seemed predetermined.

American League National League

Detroit  at Boston/New York Arizona  at Philadelphia

New York/Boston (wc)  at Texas/Los Angeles Atlanta (wc)  at Milwaukee

Or so I thought.

September 12, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
New York	88	57	.607	-	785	585	98.0	64.0	85.0	14.1	99.1
Boston	85	61	.582	3.5	783	638	93.9	68.1	13.9	74.3	88.2
Tampa Bay	81	64	.559	7.0	625	546	89.7	72.3	1.1	10.3	11.4
Toronto	74	73	.503	15.0	687	686	81.1	80.9	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	58	87	.400	30.0	614	765	64.2	97.8	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	84	62	.575	-	692	646	92.9	69.1	99.9	<0.1	99.9
Chicago	73	72	.503	10.5	590	606	81.6	80.4	<0.1	0	<0.1
Cleveland	72	72	.500	11.0	608	642	80.7	81.3	<0.1	0	<0.1
Kansas City	62	86	.419	23.0	650	711	69.1	92.9	0	0	0
Minnesota	59	87	.404	25.0	556	716	65.8	96.2	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	83	64	.565	-	765	632	91.9	70.1	84.8	0.3	85.1
Los Angeles	80	66	.548	2.5	599	564	88.5	73.5	15.2	0.9	16.1
Oakland	66	80	.452	16.5	593	629	73.7	88.3	0	0	0
Seattle	61	85	.418	21.5	500	600	67.8	94.2	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	94	49	.657	-	653	464	106.4	55.6	99.9	<0.1	100.0
Atlanta	84	63	.571	12.0	595	543	92.0	70.0	<0.1	93.1	93.1
New York	71	75	.486	24.5	651	669	78.4	83.6	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	67	77	.465	27.5	559	603	75.0	87.0	0	0	0
Florida	66	79	.455	29.0	578	638	73.4	88.6	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	86	62	.581	-	645	587	94.0	68.0	98.8	0.2	99.0
St. Louis	79	67	.541	6.0	679	628	87.6	74.4	1.2	6.5	7.7
Cincinnati	71	75	.486	14.0	673	644	80.2	81.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Pittsburgh	66	80	.452	19.0	550	624	72.9	89.1	0	0	0
Chicago	64	82	.438	21.0	596	697	71.4	90.6	0	0	0
Houston	49	97	.336	36.0	555	718	55.4	106.6	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	85	62	.578	-	662	615	93.1	68.9	99.8	<0.1	99.8
San Francisco	76	70	.521	8.5	492	511	83.8	78.2	0.2	0.2	0.4
Los Angeles	72	73	.497	12.0	565	558	80.5	81.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
Colorado	69	77	.473	15.5	671	683	76.9	85.1	0	0	0
San Diego	63	84	.429	22.0	549	572	70.2	91.8	0	0	0

Information from coolstandings.

The Red Sox stopped winning and let the Yankees overtake the lead in the AL East, while the Rays have exploded back into contention. The Tigers won nine straight and pulled ahead of the AL West for possible home field advantage. The Angels closed the gap on the Rangers by one game.

The Phillies maintained their winning ways and nearly clinched the NL East; meanwhile, the Cardinals swept the Braves and the Brewers lost five straight to make the races for the NL Wild Card and NL Central more interesting. The Braves dropped eight of their last 11, while the Cards have a five game winning streak. The Diamondbacks continue to astound and are very close to winning the NL West.

Twelve teams have lost their chance at the postseason, seven teams need a miracle, which leave 11 teams left in the actual race. Coolstandings uses a variation of Bill James' "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball" to predict the likelihood of a team winning their respectable division, wild card, or reaching the playoffs.

AL East: New York - 85.0%, Boston - 13.9%, Tampa Bay - 1.1%

AL Central: Detroit - 99.9%

AL West: Texas - 84.8%, Los Angeles - 15.2%

AL Wild Card: Boston - 74.3%, Tampa Bay - 10.3%, Los Angeles - 0.9%

NL East: Philadelphia - 99.9%

NL Central: Milwaukee - 98.8%, St. Louis - 1.2%

NL West: Arizona - 99.8%

NL Wild Card: Atlanta - 93.1%, St. Louis - 6.5%

That said, how freaky would it be to wake up in October and see something like this?

American League

National League

Tampa Bay (wc)

at Detroit

St. Louis (wc)

at Philadelphia

Texas

at Boston

Milwaukee

at Arizona

Predictable statistics is great, but I love seeing the improbable Cinderella stories even more.

2012 Free Agent Signers

There are only three weeks left in the regular 2011 season and this off season may produce a few blockbuster deals, so now may be a good time to predict which teams are most likely to acquire the big talent for 2012. The strongest options in the upcoming free agent market include Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, and, the obvious headliner, Albert Pujols. We have to remember total salary does not always determine these moves, so where do we look?

TEAM	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Average	STD DEV
Philadelphia Phillies	89.4 M	98.3 M	113.0 M	141.9 M	173.0 M	123.1 M	34.26 M
Minnesota Twins	71.4 M	56.9 M	65.3 M	97.6 M	112.7 M	80.8 M	23.44 M
Tampa Bay Rays	24.1 M	43.8 M	63.3 M	71.9 M	41.1 M	48.8 M	18.97 M
Boston Red Sox	143.0 M	133.4 M	121.7 M	162.4 M	161.8 M	144.5 M	17.77 M
Chicago Cubs	99.7 M	118.3 M	134.8 M	146.6 M	125.0 M	124.9 M	17.67 M
Detroit Tigers	95.2 M	137.7 M	115.1 M	122.9 M	105.7 M	115.3 M	16.24 M
San Francisco Giants	90.2 M	76.6 M	83.0 M	98.6 M	118.2 M	93.3 M	16.14 M
Florida Marlins	30.5 M	21.8 M	36.8 M	57.0 M	56.9 M	40.6 M	15.86 M
Toronto Blue Jays	81.9 M	97.8 M	80.5 M	62.2 M	62.6 M	77.0 M	14.96 M
Kansas City Royals	67.1 M	58.2 M	70.5 M	71.4 M	36.1 M	60.7 M	14.68 M
San Diego Padres	58.1 M	73.7 M	43.7 M	37.8 M	45.9 M	51.8 M	14.27 M
New York Mets	115.2 M	137.8 M	149.4 M	134.4 M	118.8 M	131.1 M	14.07 M
Cleveland Indians	61.7 M	79.0 M	81.6 M	61.2 M	49.2 M	66.5 M	13.54 M
Texas Rangers	68.3 M	67.7 M	68.2 M	55.3 M	92.3 M	70.4 M	13.47 M
Colorado Rockies	54.4 M	68.7 M	75.2 M	84.2 M	88.1 M	74.1 M	13.40 M
Seattle Mariners	106.5 M	117.7 M	98.9 M	86.5 M	86.5 M	99.2 M	13.37 M
Los Angeles Angels	109.3 M	119.2 M	113.7 M	105.0 M	138.5 M	117.1 M	13.08 M
Chicago White Sox	108.7 M	121.2 M	96.1 M	105.5 M	127.8 M	111.8 M	12.65 M
Oakland Athletics	79.4 M	48.0 M	62.3 M	51.7 M	66.5 M	61.6 M	12.50 M
Houston Astros	87.8 M	88.9 M	103.0 M	92.4 M	70.7 M	88.5 M	11.65 M
Baltimore Orioles	93.6 M	67.2 M	67.1 M	81.6 M	85.3 M	79.0 M	11.61 M
Washington Nationals	37.3 M	55.0 M	60.3 M	61.4 M	63.9 M	55.6 M	10.70 M
Arizona Diamondbacks	52.1 M	66.2 M	73.5 M	60.7 M	53.6 M	61.2 M	8.91 M
Los Angeles Dodgers	108.5 M	118.6 M	100.4 M	95.4 M	104.2 M	105.4 M	8.81 M
Atlanta Braves	87.3 M	102.4 M	96.7 M	84.4 M	87.0 M	91.6 M	7.64 M
New York Yankees	189.6 M	209.1 M	201.4 M	206.3 M	202.7 M	201.8 M	7.46 M
St. Louis Cardinals	90.3 M	99.6 M	88.5 M	93.5 M	105.4 M	95.5 M	6.99 M
Pittsburgh Pirates	38.5 M	48.7 M	48.7 M	34.9 M	45.0 M	43.2 M	6.20 M
Milwaukee Brewers	71.0 M	80.9 M	80.2 M	81.1 M	85.5 M	79.7 M	5.32 M
Cincinnati Reds	68.9 M	74.1 M	73.6 M	71.8 M	75.9 M	72.9 M	2.67 M

AVERAGE

82.6 M

89.5 M

88.9 M

90.6 M

92.9 M

88.9 M

Payroll information from USA Today.

That's a lot of data to take in, but I believe the key lies within the standard deviation of the teams' payrolls. A large deviation indicates a greater change in payroll over the last five years. Only three teams on this list have consistently raised their payrolls every year since 2007: the Phillies, Rockies, and Nationals. The Philadelphia Phillies payroll has nearly doubled over this time to reflect their recent acquisitions of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Essentially the Phillies are becoming the new Yankees of the National League.

Let's categorize a few teams.

Most deviation: Phillies, Twins, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs.

Least deviation: Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, Yankees.

Highest average payroll: Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Phillies.

Lowest average payroll: Marlins, Pirates, Rays, Padres, Nationals.

Time for some cross-referencing.

Most deviation & above average payroll: Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Giants.

Most deviation & below average payroll: Twins, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Royals.

Least deviation & above average payroll: Cardinals, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers, White Sox.

Least deviation & below average payroll: Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Nationals.

If you presume the teams with the most deviation and highest payroll would be able to support the largest contracts, then you would be mostly correct. Of course you still have to take into account a team's needs. For example, three of those five should not be in the mix for Pujols or Fielder because they already have solid first basemen on contract in 2012.

This longer term analysis does not take into account the more recent resurgence of previously conservative teams either, such as the Nationals who recently signed Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Jayson Werth. One could assume several low budget teams will become buyers this winter as well due to their positive performances this season, like the Diamondbacks, Indians, or Pirates. The Marlins will be moving to their new stadium in 2012, so they may want to make a trade to attract a larger crowd. The Yankees have been unusually quiet in 2011 and I would wager they will make at least one big move, too, especially if CC Sabathia opts out of his contract early. Many analysts do not expect the Yankees to chase after Pujols or Fielder while they own Mark Teixeira, unless they try to convince one of them to take on their designated hitter role. Finally, the Brewers and Cardinals should hope to make at least one big deal if they hope to retain their star first basemen.

So who will make a big splash this off season? Here is a list of my predictions:

Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Pirates, Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees.

Only time will tell where the cards will fall.

Nail Biters

July 26, 2011: The night of one of the longest Pirates games in franchise history which ended in tragedy, frustration, robbery. (Technically the game ended on the 27th at 1:50 am.) You can call it whatever you like, but in the end it was the night the Pirate ship sank.

The Buccos record on July 25th was 53-47. One hundred games played, tied for first place in the division with the Cardinals, and, most importantly, six games over .500. They were on pace to pick up a well-deserved winning season. Today they are 65-77 with a winning percentage of .458. Basic math shows the Pirates have only 12 wins and 30 losses with a mere .285 winning percentage since July 26th.

How did we get here since the meltdown? Is there anything they could have done to avoid it? Looking back at our schedule during the collapse, I see 10 games were decided by extra innings or one run. Their results are a depressing one win and nine losses.

At a glance one might think this is expected, but of course I have to disprove the naysayers. The Pirates had 26 nail biters over the course of their first 100 games this season. They managed 15 wins and 11 losses, which seems like a respectable result to me.

Perhaps we could go back in time to the 26th of July and convince Hurdle to avoid a sacrifice bunt, which would result in a pitchout and eventually end the ninth inning. We could suggest the home plate umpire, Jerry Meals, have a sip of coffee before the 19th inning in case he had to make an important call. Maybe some positive momentum would have avoided a 10-game losing streak that followed soon after this devastating loss and this snowball effect of suck.

What would have happened if the Pirates won all their close games since July 25th? They could have swept the Braves in July, won a series against the Brewers, avoided being swept by the Cubs and Phillies, and reduced their longest losing streak of the season from 10 in July/August to six, which occurred in May. They could have accumulated 21 wins, 21 losses, and raised their current record to 74-68.

I can further analyze this new record in relation to yesterday’s topic, Pirates Possible Outcomes.

94-68

An epic winning streak would result in the best possible record for a thrilling season. This would have been their best record since 1992 when Barry Bonds roamed in left field. Though it still may not be enough to win the division against the Brewers, they definitely would have been in the race for the Wild Card. Imagine the irony if the season ended with the Pirates tied with the Braves. What a delicious way to end the regular season.

74-88

Losing streaks are not uncommon with our modern era Pirates, though I do find it mildly interesting that a tragic losing streak would result in a record one game better than my current prediction of 73-89.

82-80

My prediction in this scenario depresses me. When I compare the Pirates’ supposed winning percentage (.5211) to their opponents’ cumulative winning percentage (.5205) and take into consideration their season series records against each upcoming opponent, I reach this outcome.

One run could have spoiled this year’s opportunity of a winning season.

Pirates Possible Outcomes

The Pirates current record is 65-76. So what can happen between now and October?

86-76

An epic winning streak over the final 21 games would result in our now best possible record. The teams’ longest winning streak in franchise history was 16 games in 1909 when the Pirates finished the season 110-42 and won the World Series. This was arguably the 4th best team in MLB history if you reference their winning percentages. Our longest streak this season is four games. Wake up from your dream world. Let’s continue.

82-80

This, of course, would break our 18 year long curse. That means we can only afford to lose no more than four more games, win at least 17 of our next 21 games, and have a winning percentage of at least .810. Comparatively, the Phillies have a winning percentage of .650 and are already guaranteed a winning season. We have to play nearly perfect against upcoming teams such as the Marlins, Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Brewers. That's easier said than done since the Buccos seem to always choke on potential sweeps. If you glance at the past schedule, you can see we had a total of 11 opportunities to sweep, but only capitalized twice all season long.

80-82

This would mark our best record since 1999 when we had Brian Giles and the team went 78-83. The 1997 Pirates actually had a better opportunity of winning as they were 79-83 and only 5 games behind the Astros for first place. That was a sad season for the entire NL Central division.

76-86

Sadly, this would become our best record since moving into PNC Park on March 31, 2001. The Pirates ended their first season in their pretty new stadium at 62-100. Their best record currently stands at 75-87 from the 2003 season.

73-89

This was the prediction I made on August 30th based upon their current performance and their upcoming opponents in the remainder of the season.

65-97

An epic losing streak is, thankfully, improbable. Their longest losing skid this season was that appalling 10 games from July/August. The Pirates’ longest modern era streak is 12 games from 1914 and 1939. The franchise record is 23 games from 1889 when the team was known as the Alleghenies.

57-105

Does this look familiar? If you only hopped on the bandwagon this year when the Pirates started playing well, then this may not ring any bells. This was last season's record. We've already won more games than last season and there are still 21 games left. That's pretty cool, right?

Salutations!

Hello, and welcome to Analysis around the Horn. I hope to use this blog as a means to purvey my thoughts in relation to the Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, and baseball analysis.

My father raised me as an avid baseball fan. We attended more baseball games than I could possibly count, including memorable and life-changing games such as the 1994 All Star Game; the final game at Three Rivers Stadium before it was demolished to make way for PNC Park in 2000; and attending games in Florida, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and San Francisco.

I only played three years of baseball during my childhood, and I was terrible at it. I always embraced the statistical nature of the sport, even creating my own fantasy baseball league when I was only ten years old before I knew fantasy baseball existed. It was exciting once I finally discovered it in magazines and online. I graduated with a bachelors of science degree in business from Penn State Fayette in 2007 and from Frazier High School in 2002.

My love of baseball took a hit during the Pirates losing skid after their first place finish in 1992, their last winning season to date. It was frustrating to see them acquire young talent during this timeframe, and then trade them away. We lost (semi) memorable players likes Barry Bonds, Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Aramis Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Jose Bautista. Sadly, I could make this list longer. It seemed management had no intention or ambition to create a winning team.

During this 18-year span, the Steelers made 12 playoff appearances and won the Super Bowl twice. The Penguins were division champions four times, conference champions twice, and won the Stanley Cup once. Many of my friends have given up on the Pirates and baseball due to the lack of a salary cap.

I agree it seems unfair in a world where the Yankees maintain a payroll of $196 million, while the Pirates only pay $45 million. But consider the following, the Rays have the second lowest payroll ($41 million) and owns the 9th best record in the majors. Meanwhile the Cubs have the 6th highest payroll ($126 million) and is tied for the 6th worse record in the majors. It goes to show that money isn’t everything.

The 2010 season seemed to prove my theory regarding Pirates’ management and marked the third most losses in Pirates franchise history, which made my move to St. Louis in November all the more easier. I joked to friends and family the Pirates would start winning and Albert Pujols would be traded once I made the transition into Cardinals nation. It seemed so farfetched.

The 2011 season has been full of excitement and heartaches. Trade rumors have been swirling around Albert since spring training. The Cards lost their ace, Adam Wainwright, to surgery before the season began and their closer, Ryan Franklin, imploded to cost the team at least four losses to start the season. Players across both leagues were taking trips to the disabled list like it was the new Disney World.

Meanwhile, the Pirates actually started winning games. Their season peaked on July 19th where they were 7 games over .500 and first in the division, then actually made some positive moves before the trade deadline. It felt like I was going to be metaphorically eating my hat by the end of the season, and then the Pirates were robbed due to the infamous botched call by Jerry Meals. Something must have snapped in the Pirates clubhouse because the wheels stopped turning after that night and they started to free fall.

Many of my Facebook rants went unnoticed, thus a more public domain became a personal necessity and here we are today. Thanks for visiting!