Friday, September 16, 2011

Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
March 31, 2011 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
April 31, 2011 106 21 26 1 0 7 18 10 11 0.305 0.453 0.758 0.245
This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
May 23, 2011 190 30 51 5 0 8 26 20 20 0.340 0.421 0.761 0.268
Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
June 19, 2011 280 52 78 11 0 17 45 32 25 0.355 0.500 0.855 0.279
Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
July 12, 2011 300 54 84 12 0 18 50 35 27 0.357 0.500 0.857 0.280
The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
August 11, 2011 412 78 117 21 0 28 72 39 41 0.348 0.539 0.887 0.284
Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
September 16, 2011 521 94 154 25 0 35 93 58 52 0.366 0.545 0.911 0.296
Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?


The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston.
First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies: 248 AB / 64 games = 3.875 AB/g
Mets: 266 AB / 68 games = 3.912 AB/g
Cubs: 621 AB / 171 games = 3.632 AB/g
Astros: 639 AB / 174 games = 3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Phillies 248 40 67 14 1 12 42 31 25 0.350 0.480 0.829 0.270
Citizens Bank 89 20 29 5 0 9 21 10 7 0.382 0.685 1.068 0.326
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.405 0.610 1.015 0.320

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Mets 266 49 80 21 0 20 61 39 35 0.391 0.605 0.996 0.301
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.429 0.616 1.045 0.331

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Cubs 621 124 190 34 2 53 135 102 68 0.408 0.623 1.032 0.306
Busch Stadium 3 1595 307 531 121 0 109 354 297 152 0.437 0.614 1.051 0.333
Home 3035 614 1012 247 4 203 679 502 309 0.430 0.618 1.048 0.333
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.428 0.617 1.046 0.330

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
vs. Astros 639 120 200 38 2 42 111 95 67 0.405 0.576 0.981 0.313
Minute Maid 341 66 107 15 2 24 49 43 40 0.393 0.581 0.973 0.314
Away 3219 666 1042 204 11 240 644 470 389 0.412 0.618 1.030 0.324
Average per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.407 0.608 1.015 0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.30 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.380 0.580 0.960 0.302
Mets AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.426 0.612 1.039 0.326
Cubs AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.20 0.32 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.18 0.10 0.423 0.618 1.041 0.322
Astros AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
Custom Wt. per AB 1 0.19 0.31 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.398 0.583 0.980 0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction 570 104 170 28 0 38 103 66 57 0.371 0.551 0.922 0.298














Custom Weight AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS AVG
2011 Prediction  570 104 169 28 0 39 103 65 57 0.370 0.550 0.919 0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Salt in the Wound for the Pirates

Bucco blogs are all writing about how the Pirates clinched their 19th consecutive losing season when they lost to the Cardinals last night, 6-4. They also earned their 82nd loss earlier this afternoon before this article was finished. This felt like the season to finally end this embarrassing ongoing record of losing, but it wasn't meant to be.

Information from coolstandings.

The Pirates entered the 2011 season with low expectations after one of their worst seasons in recent memory and a series of low-end market moves over the off season did not help their case. Coolstandings projected their expected winning percentage to be only .379 at the start of the season. Their expectations did not catch up with their actual performance until the end of May, which is when the Pirates only started getting hot.

The Buccos flirted with .500 at points throughout the season, but they seemed like they were there to stay once they crossed the mark on June 24th. Their performance peaked on the 19th of July when they were seven games over .500 and coolstandings projected they would finish the season with a record of 86.5 wins and 75.5 losses, a winning percentage of .534. Their hot streak fell apart approximately one month after it began on July 29th when they started their free fall, fell below .500 on August 2nd and never reached the surface since.

Further analysis shows the Pirates were above .500 a total of only 45 games this season, which means they were .500 or worse in the other 103 games thus far (117 if you include the remainder of the season). The 10 game losing streak in July and August was not completely to blame either considering they were below .500 a total of 62 times before the streak began.

Maybe the Pirates lost this season because of injuries, inexperienced pitchers, inept offense, some combination of the three or they were simply outplayed by their opponents. Whatever it was, 2011 was much more exciting than 2010. Seriously, look at this graph.



I don't expect them to acquire any big names like Albert Pujols and they may not even be able to retain Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, but I am looking forward to whatever moves management will make over this winter. Acquiring Clint Hurdle was their best move by far in 2011. Now they just need an experienced team leader to guide them to a victory.

After all, it would be nice to see the Buccos win a season before the world ends in 2012. (lol)

Monday, September 12, 2011

2011 Playoff Predictions

September started with the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers guaranteed a winning season of .500 or better. In retrospect, only the Royals and Astros were guaranteed losing records at that point. Eight teams were already knocked out of contention for the playoffs and eight were circling the drain to join them, which left 14 still competing for a shot at the postseason.

August 31, 2011
AL East  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Boston  83 52 .615 729 565 98.8 63.2 61.9 37.5 99.4
New York  81 53 .604 1.5 732 538 97.9 64.1 38.0 60.7 98.7
Tampa Bay  74 61 .548 9.0 575 511 87.1 74.9 0.2 1.6 1.7
Toronto  68 68 .500 15.5 640 623 80.3 81.7 0 <0.1 <0.1
Baltimore  54 80 .403 28.5 567 706 64.1 97.9 0 0 0












AL Central  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Detroit  75 61 .551 614 608 88.8 73.2 82.1 <0.1 82.1
Cleveland  68 65 .511 5.5 565 576 82.7 79.3 8.5 <0.1 8.5
Chicago  68 66 .507 6.0 544 546 83.0 79.0 9.4 <0.1 9.4
Minnesota  57 79 .419 18.0 523 671 67.4 94.6 0 0 0
Kansas City  56 81 .409 19.5 596 657 68.2 93.8 0 0 0












AL West  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Texas  77 60 .562 689 591 91.2 70.8 82.9 0.1 83.0
Los Angeles  73 63 .537 3.5 552 528 87.1 74.9 17.1 0.2 17.3
Oakland  60 76 .441 16.5 536 576 72.8 89.2 <0.1 0 <0.1
Seattle  58 77 .430 18.0 470 555 69.5 92.5 0 0 0












NL East  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Philadelphia  86 46 .652 599 429 104.9 57.1 98.4 1.6 99.9
Atlanta  80 55 .593 7.5 554 490 94.2 67.8 1.6 96.1 97.7
New York  65 69 .485 22.0 592 607 78.6 83.4 0 <0.1 <0.1
Washington  63 71 .470 24.0 514 548 76.2 85.8 0 <0.1 <0.1
Florida  60 75 .444 27.5 524 602 71.1 90.9 0 0 0












NL Central  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Milwaukee  81 56 .591 605 551 94.8 67.2 98.5 0.2 98.7
St. Louis  72 64 .529 8.5 634 591 85.4 76.6 1.5 1.8 3.3
Cincinnati  67 69 .493 13.5 629 593 81.5 80.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Pittsburgh  62 74 .456 18.5 519 577 73.8 88.2 0 0 0
Chicago  59 78 .431 22.0 553 659 70.3 91.7 0 0 0
Houston  47 90 .343 34.0 528 674 57.5 104.5 0 0 0












NL West  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Arizona  78 59 .569 612 573 91.3 70.7 95.2 0.1 95.2
San Francisco  72 65 .526 6.0 460 483 83.7 78.3 4.5 0.2 4.7
Los Angeles  65 70 .481 12.0 524 520 79.3 82.7 0.3 <0.1 0.3
Colorado  64 73 .467 14.0 626 642 76.2 85.8 <0.1 0 <0.1
San Diego  60 77 .438 18.0 514 529 72.2 89.8 <0.1 0 <0.1
Information from coolstandings.

W- Wins, L- Losses, PCT- Winning Percentage, GB- Games Back, RS- Runs Scored, RA- Runs Allowed, EXPW- Expected season Wins, EXPL- Expected season Losses, DIV- Chance of winning the Division, WC- Chance of winning the Wild Card, POFF- Chance of making the Playoffs.

A few teams seemed too far gone, so I thought the only real race was in the AL West division between the Rangers and Angels. It seemed the only other question was deciding who would be the AL East champion or Wild Card berth, the Yankees or Red Sox. All the other slots for the playoffs seemed predetermined.

American League
National League


Detroit  at Boston/New York
Arizona  at Philadelphia




New York/Boston (wc)  at Texas/Los Angeles
Atlanta (wc)  at Milwaukee






Or so I thought.

September 12, 2011
AL East  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
New York  88 57 .607 785 585 98.0 64.0 85.0 14.1 99.1
Boston  85 61 .582 3.5 783 638 93.9 68.1 13.9 74.3 88.2
Tampa Bay  81 64 .559 7.0 625 546 89.7 72.3 1.1 10.3 11.4
Toronto  74 73 .503 15.0 687 686 81.1 80.9 0 <0.1 <0.1
Baltimore  58 87 .400 30.0 614 765 64.2 97.8 0 0 0












AL Central  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Detroit  84 62 .575 692 646 92.9 69.1 99.9 <0.1 99.9
Chicago  73 72 .503 10.5 590 606 81.6 80.4 <0.1 0 <0.1
Cleveland  72 72 .500 11.0 608 642 80.7 81.3 <0.1 0 <0.1
Kansas City  62 86 .419 23.0 650 711 69.1 92.9 0 0 0
Minnesota  59 87 .404 25.0 556 716 65.8 96.2 0 0 0












AL West  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Texas  83 64 .565 765 632 91.9 70.1 84.8 0.3 85.1
Los Angeles  80 66 .548 2.5 599 564 88.5 73.5 15.2 0.9 16.1
Oakland  66 80 .452 16.5 593 629 73.7 88.3 0 0 0
Seattle  61 85 .418 21.5 500 600 67.8 94.2 0 0 0












NL East  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Philadelphia  94 49 .657 653 464 106.4 55.6 99.9 <0.1 100.0
Atlanta  84 63 .571 12.0 595 543 92.0 70.0 <0.1 93.1 93.1
New York  71 75 .486 24.5 651 669 78.4 83.6 0 <0.1 <0.1
Washington  67 77 .465 27.5 559 603 75.0 87.0 0 0 0
Florida  66 79 .455 29.0 578 638 73.4 88.6 0 0 0












NL Central  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Milwaukee  86 62 .581 645 587 94.0 68.0 98.8 0.2 99.0
St. Louis  79 67 .541 6.0 679 628 87.6 74.4 1.2 6.5 7.7
Cincinnati  71 75 .486 14.0 673 644 80.2 81.8 0 <0.1 <0.1
Pittsburgh  66 80 .452 19.0 550 624 72.9 89.1 0 0 0
Chicago  64 82 .438 21.0 596 697 71.4 90.6 0 0 0
Houston  49 97 .336 36.0 555 718 55.4 106.6 0 0 0












NL West  PCT  GB  RS  RA  EXPW  EXPL  DIV  WC  POFF
Arizona  85 62 .578 662 615 93.1 68.9 99.8 <0.1 99.8
San Francisco  76 70 .521 8.5 492 511 83.8 78.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
Los Angeles  72 73 .497 12.0 565 558 80.5 81.5 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1
Colorado  69 77 .473 15.5 671 683 76.9 85.1 0 0 0
San Diego  63 84 .429 22.0 549 572 70.2 91.8 0 0 0
Information from coolstandings.

The Red Sox stopped winning and let the Yankees overtake the lead in the AL East, while the Rays have exploded back into contention. The Tigers won nine straight and pulled ahead of the AL West for possible home field advantage. The Angels closed the gap on the Rangers by one game.

The Phillies maintained their winning ways and nearly clinched the NL East; meanwhile, the Cardinals swept the Braves and the Brewers lost five straight to make the races for the NL Wild Card and NL Central more interesting. The Braves dropped eight of their last 11, while the Cards have a five game winning streak. The Diamondbacks continue to astound and are very close to winning the NL West.

Twelve teams have lost their chance at the postseason, seven teams need a miracle, which leave 11 teams left in the actual race. Coolstandings uses a variation of Bill James' "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball" to predict the likelihood of a team winning their respectable division, wild card, or reaching the playoffs.

AL East: New York - 85.0%, Boston - 13.9%, Tampa Bay - 1.1%
AL Central: Detroit - 99.9%
AL West: Texas - 84.8%, Los Angeles - 15.2%
AL Wild Card: Boston - 74.3%, Tampa Bay - 10.3%, Los Angeles - 0.9%

NL East: Philadelphia - 99.9%
NL Central: Milwaukee - 98.8%, St. Louis - 1.2%
NL West: Arizona - 99.8%
NL Wild Card: Atlanta - 93.1%, St. Louis - 6.5%

That said, how freaky would it be to wake up in October and see something like this?

American League
National League
Tampa Bay (wc)  at Detroit
St. Louis (wc)  at Philadelphia
Texas  at Boston
Milwaukee  at Arizona

Predictable statistics is great, but I love seeing the improbable Cinderella stories even more.