Pujols Streak Recap

The regular season is over and the Cardinals beat the Astros 8-0 to finish with a record of 90-72, which earns them the wild card and sends them to playoffs.

This post was originally written to explain how the Cards would face the Atlanta Braves tomorrow in a one game playoff to decide who would take the wild card slot, but the Braves continued their devastating collapse after blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies and eventually lost after 13 innings, 4-3. I wasn't prepared for this, so all I can say is shut up and enjoy it.

Let's talk about Albert Pujols. If you read my post on September 16th, then you may remember my prediction regarding Albert Pujols' streak. How did he do compared to my weighted prediction?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
2011 Total	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	61	58	0.366	0.541	0.906	0.2988
Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.2965
Difference +/-	+9	+1	+4	+1	0	- 2	- 4	- 4	+1	- 0.004	- 0.009	- 0.013	+0.0023

Sigh. So close, but his streak of 100 runs batted in and 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 ends at 10 consecutive seasons. Let's break it down to see what went wrong and what went right.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 16, 2011	4	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.372	0.549	0.921	0.301
Sep 17, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.372	0.546	0.918	0.301
Sep 18, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.371	0.550	0.921	0.300
Sep 19, 2011	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.369	0.548	0.918	0.299
Series Total	17	3	7	1	0	1	3	2	3	0.474	0.647	1.121	0.412
Result per AB	1	0.18	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.12	0.18
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 20, 2011	5	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.373	0.551	0.924	0.304
Sep 21, 2011	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.374	0.552	0.926	0.305
Sep 22, 2011	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.372	0.554	0.927	0.304
Series Total	14	5	7	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.786	1.286	0.500
Result per AB	1	0.36	0.50	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.00
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 23, 2011	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.372	0.554	0.926	0.304
Sep 24, 2011	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.302
Sep 25, 2011	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.369	0.547	0.916	0.300
Series Total	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.182	0.348	0.091
Result per AB	1	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.09
Prediction per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 26, 2011	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.369	0.548	0.916	0.301
Sep 27, 2011	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.367	0.544	0.910	0.300
Sep 28, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.366	0.542	0.908	0.299
Series Total	16	3	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.563	0.250
Result per AB	1	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.13
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Some of the differences from the norm are subtle, others are obvious. Albert performed extremely well versus the Phillies and Mets, average against the Astros, and terrible against the Cubs. He missed my home run prediction by two, which could have nudged his RBI total over 100. He managed to record 19 hits (two more than my previous estimate), but also accumulated nine more at bats.

It is possible Albert may have been overexerting himself to push for the .300 mark, which caused him to become less patient at the plate. I attended the game on the 25th in St. Louis and noticed him swinging at the first pitch on a couple occasions. This could explain the low walk count and more at bats than usual.

Regardless of this almost human-like season, Albert still recorded a season which will still receive votes for the National League MVP. Now let's think about October!

Pirates 2011 Final Record

72-90

I predicted 73-89, but the Brewers are just relentless against the Pirates. Prince Fielder hit three home runs in yesterday's game. Absurd.

Contrary to what others may tell you, this was a giant leap in the right direction for the Pirates organization.

Great season.

Cards 2011 Regular Season Finale

What a wild card race! No analysis yet. I've been far too busy enjoying the good and the bad.

The good.

The bad.

Game 162 is tonight, so tune in and let's see how the regular season ends!

Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
March 31, 2011	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
April 31, 2011	106	21	26	1	0	7	18	10	11	0.305	0.453	0.758	0.245

This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
May 23, 2011	190	30	51	5	0	8	26	20	20	0.340	0.421	0.761	0.268

Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
June 19, 2011	280	52	78	11	0	17	45	32	25	0.355	0.500	0.855	0.279

Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
July 12, 2011	300	54	84	12	0	18	50	35	27	0.357	0.500	0.857	0.280

The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
August 11, 2011	412	78	117	21	0	28	72	39	41	0.348	0.539	0.887	0.284

Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
September 16, 2011	521	94	154	25	0	35	93	58	52	0.366	0.545	0.911	0.296

Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?

The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston. First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies:	248 AB / 64 games =	3.875 AB/g
Mets:	266 AB / 68 games =	3.912 AB/g
Cubs:	621 AB / 171 games =	3.632 AB/g
Astros:	639 AB / 174 games =	3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Phillies	248	40	67	14	1	12	42	31	25	0.350	0.480	0.829	0.270
Citizens Bank	89	20	29	5	0	9	21	10	7	0.382	0.685	1.068	0.326
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.14	0.12	0.405	0.610	1.015	0.320

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Mets	266	49	80	21	0	20	61	39	35	0.391	0.605	0.996	0.301
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.429	0.616	1.045	0.331

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Cubs	621	124	190	34	2	53	135	102	68	0.408	0.623	1.032	0.306
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.428	0.617	1.046	0.330

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Astros	639	120	200	38	2	42	111	95	67	0.405	0.576	0.981	0.313
Minute Maid	341	66	107	15	2	24	49	43	40	0.393	0.581	0.973	0.314
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.407	0.608	1.015	0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	170	28	0	38	103	66	57	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.298
Custom Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

It's well within the Machine's reach. Perhaps this would be a more frightening thought if asked earlier in the season.

Salt in the Wound for the Pirates

Bucco blogs are all writing about how the Pirates clinched their 19th consecutive losing season when they lost to the Cardinals last night, 6-4. They also earned their 82nd loss earlier this afternoon before this article was finished. This felt like the season to finally end this embarrassing ongoing record of losing, but it wasn't meant to be.

Information from coolstandings.

The Pirates entered the 2011 season with low expectations after one of their worst seasons in recent memory and a series of low-end market moves over the off season did not help their case. Coolstandings projected their expected winning percentage to be only .379 at the start of the season. Their expectations did not catch up with their actual performance until the end of May, which is when the Pirates only started getting hot.

The Buccos flirted with .500 at points throughout the season, but they seemed like they were there to stay once they crossed the mark on June 24th. Their performance peaked on the 19th of July when they were seven games over .500 and coolstandings projected they would finish the season with a record of 86.5 wins and 75.5 losses, a winning percentage of .534. Their hot streak fell apart approximately one month after it began on July 29th when they started their free fall, fell below .500 on August 2nd and never reached the surface since.

Further analysis shows the Pirates were above .500 a total of only 45 games this season, which means they were .500 or worse in the other 103 games thus far (117 if you include the remainder of the season). The 10 game losing streak in July and August was not completely to blame either considering they were below .500 a total of 62 times before the streak began.

Maybe the Pirates lost this season because of injuries, inexperienced pitchers, inept offense, some combination of the three or they were simply outplayed by their opponents. Whatever it was, 2011 was much more exciting than 2010. Seriously, look at this graph.

I don't expect them to acquire any big names like Albert Pujols and they may not even be able to retain Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, but I am looking forward to whatever moves management will make over this winter. Acquiring Clint Hurdle was their best move by far in 2011. Now they just need an experienced team leader to guide them to a victory.

After all, it would be nice to see the Buccos win a season before the world ends in 2012. (lol)