Pujols Streak Recap

The regular season is over and the Cardinals beat the Astros 8-0 to finish with a record of 90-72, which earns them the wild card and sends them to playoffs.

This post was originally written to explain how the Cards would face the Atlanta Braves tomorrow in a one game playoff to decide who would take the wild card slot, but the Braves continued their devastating collapse after blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies and eventually lost after 13 innings, 4-3. I wasn't prepared for this, so all I can say is shut up and enjoy it.

Let's talk about Albert Pujols. If you read my post on September 16th, then you may remember my prediction regarding Albert Pujols' streak. How did he do compared to my weighted prediction?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
2011 Total	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	61	58	0.366	0.541	0.906	0.2988
Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.2965
Difference +/-	+9	+1	+4	+1	0	- 2	- 4	- 4	+1	- 0.004	- 0.009	- 0.013	+0.0023

Sigh. So close, but his streak of 100 runs batted in and 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 ends at 10 consecutive seasons. Let's break it down to see what went wrong and what went right.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 16, 2011	4	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.372	0.549	0.921	0.301
Sep 17, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.372	0.546	0.918	0.301
Sep 18, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.371	0.550	0.921	0.300
Sep 19, 2011	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.369	0.548	0.918	0.299
Series Total	17	3	7	1	0	1	3	2	3	0.474	0.647	1.121	0.412
Result per AB	1	0.18	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.12	0.18
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 20, 2011	5	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.373	0.551	0.924	0.304
Sep 21, 2011	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.374	0.552	0.926	0.305
Sep 22, 2011	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.372	0.554	0.927	0.304
Series Total	14	5	7	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.786	1.286	0.500
Result per AB	1	0.36	0.50	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.00
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 23, 2011	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.372	0.554	0.926	0.304
Sep 24, 2011	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.302
Sep 25, 2011	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.369	0.547	0.916	0.300
Series Total	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.182	0.348	0.091
Result per AB	1	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.09
Prediction per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA
Sep 26, 2011	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.369	0.548	0.916	0.301
Sep 27, 2011	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.367	0.544	0.910	0.300
Sep 28, 2011	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.366	0.542	0.908	0.299
Series Total	16	3	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.563	0.250
Result per AB	1	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.13
Prediction per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Some of the differences from the norm are subtle, others are obvious. Albert performed extremely well versus the Phillies and Mets, average against the Astros, and terrible against the Cubs. He missed my home run prediction by two, which could have nudged his RBI total over 100. He managed to record 19 hits (two more than my previous estimate), but also accumulated nine more at bats.

It is possible Albert may have been overexerting himself to push for the .300 mark, which caused him to become less patient at the plate. I attended the game on the 25th in St. Louis and noticed him swinging at the first pitch on a couple occasions. This could explain the low walk count and more at bats than usual.

Regardless of this almost human-like season, Albert still recorded a season which will still receive votes for the National League MVP. Now let's think about October!

Pirates 2011 Final Record

72-90

I predicted 73-89, but the Brewers are just relentless against the Pirates. Prince Fielder hit three home runs in yesterday's game. Absurd.

Contrary to what others may tell you, this was a giant leap in the right direction for the Pirates organization.

Great season.

Cards 2011 Regular Season Finale

What a wild card race! No analysis yet. I've been far too busy enjoying the good and the bad.

The good.

The bad.

Game 162 is tonight, so tune in and let's see how the regular season ends!

Can Pujols' Streak Continue?

Albert Pujols has collected 100 runs batted in and hit 30 home runs, while maintaining a batting average of at least .300 every year since he started playing professionally 11 years ago. His record may be in danger this season. Let's rewind to the start of the season and see what happened.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
March 31, 2011	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Albert faced the Padres in San Diego for the first game of the Cardinals' season where he was 0 for 5. The organization was unable to come to terms with him on extending his contract during the offseason and he refused to continue negotiations during the season. The clubhouse is left to wonder "Will Pujols be back next season?"

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
April 31, 2011	106	21	26	1	0	7	18	10	11	0.305	0.453	0.758	0.245

This was by far the worst month ever recorded by Pujols to date. The media swirled around his slump as "unprecedented," especially if he expects to draw an Alex Rodriguez-type salary.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
May 23, 2011	190	30	51	5	0	8	26	20	20	0.340	0.421	0.761	0.268

Albert finally snaps the longest home run drought of his career after 105 at-bats.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
June 19, 2011	280	52	78	11	0	17	45	32	25	0.355	0.500	0.855	0.279

Albert went 3 for 3 against the Royals, but an accidental collision with left him with a small fracture in his left forearm. He is placed on the disabled list and expected out until the middle of August.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
July 12, 2011	300	54	84	12	0	18	50	35	27	0.357	0.500	0.857	0.280

The day of the All Star game is upon us, and Albert was not voted as a Cardinals representative. Astoundingly it was not because he was injured as he recently came back after a brief stint on the disabled list a week beforehand. The injury was supposed to sideline him four to six weeks, but he returned after only two.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
August 11, 2011	412	78	117	21	0	28	72	39	41	0.348	0.539	0.887	0.284

Albert went 4 for 4 with a home run and helped the Cardinals avoid being swept by the Brewers. I call this game the turning point in his season where he realized he wasn't running on all cylinders and corrected the problem. His performance in this game raised his batting average over .280 and he has not dropped below that mark thus far this season.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
September 16, 2011	521	94	154	25	0	35	93	58	52	0.366	0.545	0.911	0.296

Here we are today. Albert's definitely having a down year, but things are looking up. Pujols has already recorded 35 round trippers this season, but can he raise his batting average to .300 and collect the 100 RBIs he needs?

The Cardinals have four upcoming games against the Phillies in Philadelphia, three with the Mets and three with the Cubs at home, and three games against the Astros in Houston. First I will try to predict how many at-bats he will accumulate against each team, then find his weighted average based on his performance over his career against each opponent, stadium, and his home/away performance.

Phillies:	248 AB / 64 games =	3.875 AB/g
Mets:	266 AB / 68 games =	3.912 AB/g
Cubs:	621 AB / 171 games =	3.632 AB/g
Astros:	639 AB / 174 games =	3.672 AB/g

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Phillies	248	40	67	14	1	12	42	31	25	0.350	0.480	0.829	0.270
Citizens Bank	89	20	29	5	0	9	21	10	7	0.382	0.685	1.068	0.326
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.14	0.12	0.405	0.610	1.015	0.320

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Mets	266	49	80	21	0	20	61	39	35	0.391	0.605	0.996	0.301
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.429	0.616	1.045	0.331

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Cubs	621	124	190	34	2	53	135	102	68	0.408	0.623	1.032	0.306
Busch Stadium 3	1595	307	531	121	0	109	354	297	152	0.437	0.614	1.051	0.333
Home	3035	614	1012	247	4	203	679	502	309	0.430	0.618	1.048	0.333
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.428	0.617	1.046	0.330

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
vs. Astros	639	120	200	38	2	42	111	95	67	0.405	0.576	0.981	0.313
Minute Maid	341	66	107	15	2	24	49	43	40	0.393	0.581	0.973	0.314
Away	3219	666	1042	204	11	240	644	470	389	0.412	0.618	1.030	0.324
Average per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.407	0.608	1.015	0.321

These numbers look fine, but I think we are placing too much weight on the wrong areas. Is it fair to base his performance upon cumulative statistics against other teams? Probably not. I will double the weight on the team, increase the effect of the stadium by four when away, and reduce home/away statistics by 10.

Phillies	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.30	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.380	0.580	0.960	0.302
Mets	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.33	0.08	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.17	0.10	0.426	0.612	1.039	0.326
Cubs	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.20	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.22	0.18	0.10	0.423	0.618	1.041	0.322
Astros	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Custom Wt. per AB	1	0.19	0.31	0.05	0.00	0.07	0.16	0.14	0.11	0.398	0.583	0.980	0.315

Let's see how I did.

Normal Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	170	28	0	38	103	66	57	0.371	0.551	0.922	0.298
Custom Weight	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
2011 Prediction	570	104	169	28	0	39	103	65	57	0.370	0.550	0.919	0.297

Ouch. This projection allows him to reach 100 runs batted in as well as 100 runs, but his batting average is still just a little low in both estimates. If he records 49 at-bats over the next 13 games, like my estimatation predicts, then he will need at least 17 hits to reach .300.

It's well within the Machine's reach. Perhaps this would be a more frightening thought if asked earlier in the season.

Salt in the Wound for the Pirates

Bucco blogs are all writing about how the Pirates clinched their 19th consecutive losing season when they lost to the Cardinals last night, 6-4. They also earned their 82nd loss earlier this afternoon before this article was finished. This felt like the season to finally end this embarrassing ongoing record of losing, but it wasn't meant to be.

Information from coolstandings.

The Pirates entered the 2011 season with low expectations after one of their worst seasons in recent memory and a series of low-end market moves over the off season did not help their case. Coolstandings projected their expected winning percentage to be only .379 at the start of the season. Their expectations did not catch up with their actual performance until the end of May, which is when the Pirates only started getting hot.

The Buccos flirted with .500 at points throughout the season, but they seemed like they were there to stay once they crossed the mark on June 24th. Their performance peaked on the 19th of July when they were seven games over .500 and coolstandings projected they would finish the season with a record of 86.5 wins and 75.5 losses, a winning percentage of .534. Their hot streak fell apart approximately one month after it began on July 29th when they started their free fall, fell below .500 on August 2nd and never reached the surface since.

Further analysis shows the Pirates were above .500 a total of only 45 games this season, which means they were .500 or worse in the other 103 games thus far (117 if you include the remainder of the season). The 10 game losing streak in July and August was not completely to blame either considering they were below .500 a total of 62 times before the streak began.

Maybe the Pirates lost this season because of injuries, inexperienced pitchers, inept offense, some combination of the three or they were simply outplayed by their opponents. Whatever it was, 2011 was much more exciting than 2010. Seriously, look at this graph.

I don't expect them to acquire any big names like Albert Pujols and they may not even be able to retain Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, but I am looking forward to whatever moves management will make over this winter. Acquiring Clint Hurdle was their best move by far in 2011. Now they just need an experienced team leader to guide them to a victory.

After all, it would be nice to see the Buccos win a season before the world ends in 2012. (lol)

2011 Playoff Predictions

September started with the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers guaranteed a winning season of .500 or better. In retrospect, only the Royals and Astros were guaranteed losing records at that point. Eight teams were already knocked out of contention for the playoffs and eight were circling the drain to join them, which left 14 still competing for a shot at the postseason.

August 31, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Boston	83	52	.615	-	729	565	98.8	63.2	61.9	37.5	99.4
New York	81	53	.604	1.5	732	538	97.9	64.1	38.0	60.7	98.7
Tampa Bay	74	61	.548	9.0	575	511	87.1	74.9	0.2	1.6	1.7
Toronto	68	68	.500	15.5	640	623	80.3	81.7	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	54	80	.403	28.5	567	706	64.1	97.9	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	75	61	.551	-	614	608	88.8	73.2	82.1	<0.1	82.1
Cleveland	68	65	.511	5.5	565	576	82.7	79.3	8.5	<0.1	8.5
Chicago	68	66	.507	6.0	544	546	83.0	79.0	9.4	<0.1	9.4
Minnesota	57	79	.419	18.0	523	671	67.4	94.6	0	0	0
Kansas City	56	81	.409	19.5	596	657	68.2	93.8	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	77	60	.562	-	689	591	91.2	70.8	82.9	0.1	83.0
Los Angeles	73	63	.537	3.5	552	528	87.1	74.9	17.1	0.2	17.3
Oakland	60	76	.441	16.5	536	576	72.8	89.2	<0.1	0	<0.1
Seattle	58	77	.430	18.0	470	555	69.5	92.5	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	86	46	.652	-	599	429	104.9	57.1	98.4	1.6	99.9
Atlanta	80	55	.593	7.5	554	490	94.2	67.8	1.6	96.1	97.7
New York	65	69	.485	22.0	592	607	78.6	83.4	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	63	71	.470	24.0	514	548	76.2	85.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Florida	60	75	.444	27.5	524	602	71.1	90.9	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	81	56	.591	-	605	551	94.8	67.2	98.5	0.2	98.7
St. Louis	72	64	.529	8.5	634	591	85.4	76.6	1.5	1.8	3.3
Cincinnati	67	69	.493	13.5	629	593	81.5	80.5	0.1	0.1	0.1
Pittsburgh	62	74	.456	18.5	519	577	73.8	88.2	0	0	0
Chicago	59	78	.431	22.0	553	659	70.3	91.7	0	0	0
Houston	47	90	.343	34.0	528	674	57.5	104.5	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	78	59	.569	-	612	573	91.3	70.7	95.2	0.1	95.2
San Francisco	72	65	.526	6.0	460	483	83.7	78.3	4.5	0.2	4.7
Los Angeles	65	70	.481	12.0	524	520	79.3	82.7	0.3	<0.1	0.3
Colorado	64	73	.467	14.0	626	642	76.2	85.8	<0.1	0	<0.1
San Diego	60	77	.438	18.0	514	529	72.2	89.8	<0.1	0	<0.1

Information from coolstandings.

W- Wins, L- Losses, PCT- Winning Percentage, GB- Games Back, RS- Runs Scored, RA- Runs Allowed, EXPW- Expected season Wins, EXPL- Expected season Losses, DIV- Chance of winning the Division, WC- Chance of winning the Wild Card, POFF- Chance of making the Playoffs.

A few teams seemed too far gone, so I thought the only real race was in the AL West division between the Rangers and Angels. It seemed the only other question was deciding who would be the AL East champion or Wild Card berth, the Yankees or Red Sox. All the other slots for the playoffs seemed predetermined.

American League National League

Detroit  at Boston/New York Arizona  at Philadelphia

New York/Boston (wc)  at Texas/Los Angeles Atlanta (wc)  at Milwaukee

Or so I thought.

September 12, 2011

AL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
New York	88	57	.607	-	785	585	98.0	64.0	85.0	14.1	99.1
Boston	85	61	.582	3.5	783	638	93.9	68.1	13.9	74.3	88.2
Tampa Bay	81	64	.559	7.0	625	546	89.7	72.3	1.1	10.3	11.4
Toronto	74	73	.503	15.0	687	686	81.1	80.9	0	<0.1	<0.1
Baltimore	58	87	.400	30.0	614	765	64.2	97.8	0	0	0
AL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Detroit	84	62	.575	-	692	646	92.9	69.1	99.9	<0.1	99.9
Chicago	73	72	.503	10.5	590	606	81.6	80.4	<0.1	0	<0.1
Cleveland	72	72	.500	11.0	608	642	80.7	81.3	<0.1	0	<0.1
Kansas City	62	86	.419	23.0	650	711	69.1	92.9	0	0	0
Minnesota	59	87	.404	25.0	556	716	65.8	96.2	0	0	0
AL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Texas	83	64	.565	-	765	632	91.9	70.1	84.8	0.3	85.1
Los Angeles	80	66	.548	2.5	599	564	88.5	73.5	15.2	0.9	16.1
Oakland	66	80	.452	16.5	593	629	73.7	88.3	0	0	0
Seattle	61	85	.418	21.5	500	600	67.8	94.2	0	0	0
NL East	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Philadelphia	94	49	.657	-	653	464	106.4	55.6	99.9	<0.1	100.0
Atlanta	84	63	.571	12.0	595	543	92.0	70.0	<0.1	93.1	93.1
New York	71	75	.486	24.5	651	669	78.4	83.6	0	<0.1	<0.1
Washington	67	77	.465	27.5	559	603	75.0	87.0	0	0	0
Florida	66	79	.455	29.0	578	638	73.4	88.6	0	0	0
NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Milwaukee	86	62	.581	-	645	587	94.0	68.0	98.8	0.2	99.0
St. Louis	79	67	.541	6.0	679	628	87.6	74.4	1.2	6.5	7.7
Cincinnati	71	75	.486	14.0	673	644	80.2	81.8	0	<0.1	<0.1
Pittsburgh	66	80	.452	19.0	550	624	72.9	89.1	0	0	0
Chicago	64	82	.438	21.0	596	697	71.4	90.6	0	0	0
Houston	49	97	.336	36.0	555	718	55.4	106.6	0	0	0
NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
Arizona	85	62	.578	-	662	615	93.1	68.9	99.8	<0.1	99.8
San Francisco	76	70	.521	8.5	492	511	83.8	78.2	0.2	0.2	0.4
Los Angeles	72	73	.497	12.0	565	558	80.5	81.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
Colorado	69	77	.473	15.5	671	683	76.9	85.1	0	0	0
San Diego	63	84	.429	22.0	549	572	70.2	91.8	0	0	0

Information from coolstandings.

The Red Sox stopped winning and let the Yankees overtake the lead in the AL East, while the Rays have exploded back into contention. The Tigers won nine straight and pulled ahead of the AL West for possible home field advantage. The Angels closed the gap on the Rangers by one game.

The Phillies maintained their winning ways and nearly clinched the NL East; meanwhile, the Cardinals swept the Braves and the Brewers lost five straight to make the races for the NL Wild Card and NL Central more interesting. The Braves dropped eight of their last 11, while the Cards have a five game winning streak. The Diamondbacks continue to astound and are very close to winning the NL West.

Twelve teams have lost their chance at the postseason, seven teams need a miracle, which leave 11 teams left in the actual race. Coolstandings uses a variation of Bill James' "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball" to predict the likelihood of a team winning their respectable division, wild card, or reaching the playoffs.

AL East: New York - 85.0%, Boston - 13.9%, Tampa Bay - 1.1%

AL Central: Detroit - 99.9%

AL West: Texas - 84.8%, Los Angeles - 15.2%

AL Wild Card: Boston - 74.3%, Tampa Bay - 10.3%, Los Angeles - 0.9%

NL East: Philadelphia - 99.9%

NL Central: Milwaukee - 98.8%, St. Louis - 1.2%

NL West: Arizona - 99.8%

NL Wild Card: Atlanta - 93.1%, St. Louis - 6.5%

That said, how freaky would it be to wake up in October and see something like this?

American League

National League

Tampa Bay (wc)

at Detroit

St. Louis (wc)

at Philadelphia

Texas

at Boston

Milwaukee

at Arizona

Predictable statistics is great, but I love seeing the improbable Cinderella stories even more.